Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 292043 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 443 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING AN OVERNIGHT LULL. KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN INTO THE EARLY EVENING SE OF I-71. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE AREA NW OF I-71 SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTN/EVENING. BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN CHANCES LATE...AS THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CDFNT. TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL BE SWINGING E FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE S/W WILL PUSH A CDFNT TOWARDS THE FA. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MORNING COULD BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH A INCREASING CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE W CNTL OHIO COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CDFNT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA. CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS A LITTLE AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SO PCPN COULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SWINGING THE MAIN H5 S/W THRU ON SUNDAY. THIS CAUSES A SFC LOW TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A LITTLE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK ON SUNDAY AS IT PRODUCES A QPF BULLS-EYE. PCPN SHOULD COME TO END AS LOW PULLS AWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ON SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 60S NW OF I-71...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60 WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...

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