Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231424 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1024 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AREA OF CONVECTION FROM OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES E OF I-71. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BACK OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HOWEVER. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WORK EWD INTO THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND THROUGH THE CINCY TRI-STATE REGION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP SE OF I-71 AS THE INSTABILITY BUILDS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTN. WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE THE CONVECTION IS THE HEAVIEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN MORE....BUT JUST A LITTLE SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SOAR. TINKERED WITH THE HIGHS A LITTLE. THE GENERAL TREND IS THE UPPER 70S IN THE NW...RAMPING UP TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...SKY COVER WILL DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE 50S AND 60S FOR LOWS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL RULE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BOOSTED A BIT BY WARM ADVECTION...GIVING HIGHS NEAR 80 && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE ACCELERATED THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE...YET STILL VARY BY SEVERAL HOURS ON THEIR FORECAST ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POPS RAMPING UP INTO THE DAY SATURDAY BASED ON THE FASTER TREND. KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...A REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID WEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE CMC AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT. AM FORECASTING MAINLY LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS BEING THAT HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF OHIO AND THE NRN TAF SITES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH MVFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUNDERSTORM CONVERGE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS MODERATE INSTBY DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS RE-DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND SE OF I-71 CORRIDOR. HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE LATER TODAY AS THE FROPA TAKES PLACE. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...LATTO AVIATION...AR

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