Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301953 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 353 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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The threat for mainly daytime scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday as a warm...muggy airmass remains over the Great Lakes. There will be some tendency for some drying into early next week and reduced chances for showers and storms. Temperatures will remain in the 80s.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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At 19Z...a broad longwave trough axis remained west of the WFO ILN forecast area...centered from Ill/Ind on southward. The primary mid/upper level low was still across Wisc/Lake Michigan and moving very slowly east. This has allowed a continued modest west- southwesterly mid/upper level flow across our area with numerous low/mid level perturbations rotating through the longwave trough. One such disturbance was approaching the tri-state and was responsible for a more concentrated area of storms from Carrollton back to Louisville. A low/mid level convergence zone and attendant weak surface low over northern Ohio was focusing a separate area of convection across that area. In between...over the WFO ILN forecast area...diurnally forced and generally weak showers/storms continue to flare up and drift slowly east. For the remainder of the afternoon and tonight...expect the weak disturbance in the tri state to force the kentucky storm cluster generally east-southeast which should involve portions of northern ky. Main impact here will be locally heavy/torrential rain rates and perhaps a marginal wind threat with effective shears around 25kts and steep low level lapse rates. Otherwise...outflow from northern Ohio storms will likely propogate south into central Ohio and and will combine with slightly better low level convergence there and may fire isold/sct storms through about 02Z with main impacts similar to the storms across nrn ky. Isolated showers/storms between these two areas should fade rather quickly by early this evening. As with previous nights...fog is likely to form as the boundary layer remains quite moist. One concern is a pool of lower PWAT air over Indiana that may drop PW rather decently here later this evening...but boundary layer will likely be decoupled by then trapping shallow moisture to allow fog formation esp across cntl Ohio where the low level convergence axis remains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The longwave trough axis will shift through the area on Sunday changing the mid/upper flow from west-southwesterly to northwesterly which should reduce our chances for showers/storms somewhat. There will still be a window of opportunity in the afternoon /most favored in central Ohio/ for diurnally forced showers isold/sct showers and storms before subsidence on the backside of the longwave trough axis shuts things down by Sunday evening. A quiet Sunday night is expected across the area -- with potentially some fog to develop again -- but will defer that to later forecasts once a better feel for winds/dwpts is had.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Models continue to show a weak H5 trof over the Great Lakes on Monday In the localized nw flow, the models are dropping weak s/w into the region. Each model handles these weak disturbances differently and therefore are producing a variety of solutions. The GEM hemispheric and the NAM drop a MCS thru IN and srn OH. The GEM is quicker than the NAM, as it brings the bulk of the pcpn thru Monday, compared to the NAM`s Monday Night. The GFS and to a lesser extent the ECMWF pop some scattered QPF. Based on the wide range of solutions, confidence is low, but added a 20 PoP to the sw 2/3 of the fa, to at least start the transition to a wetter forecast. It looks like highs will be in the lower and mid 80s. H5 ridge begins to build in Monday night and Tuesday. Models are trying to slip some pcpn chances into the western counties Tuesday afternoon, so upped PoPs to 20 in ern IN/wrn OH. Temps will warm a couple of degrees with highs on Tuesday into the mid and upper 80s. 12Z ECMWF finally has dropped the MCS that the operational ECMWF runs have been forecasting for the past several days. The 12Z still brings a chance of pcpn to nrn sections late Tuesday night into Wednesday however. Went with chance pops over the fa on Wednesday, as pop-up storms should be possible. Highs on Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday, in the mid to upper 80s. The chance of pop-up storms now spills over to Thursday with chance pops added to the forecast. 12Z model runs are a little slower with a cdfnt working south from theupper MS valley and wrn Great Lakes. We should still see a chance of storms on Friday, but the front will still be strung across the region on Saturday keeping the chance of pcpn in the forecast. Friday will see highs in the mid to upper 80s, but Saturday should be slightly cooler with everyone in the mid 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered showers have developed across the area early this afternoon. Additional shower and some thunderstorm activity will develop for the afternoon and into the early evening hours before gradually tapering off tonight. Later on tonight during the overnight hours fog and some stratus is expected to develop across the area with the best chance for this across the northern TAF sites. Conditions will improve during the day on Sunday with additional cu development. OUTLOOK...Chance of thunderstorms Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau NEAR TERM...Binau SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Novak

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