Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240559 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 159 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A chance for showers will continue today and into Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes. High pressure will move into the area late in the week, with a slight increase in temperatures. Another cold front will move into the area late on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A secondary low level trough axis is pushing into the area from the west this evening, bringing another round of rain. This will pivot through the area through early morning but additional rain will likely redevelop later tonight as a secondary mid/upper level trough/low approaches from the west late tonight. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s but temperatures will likely remain in the mid 50s across the east for the next few hours until some cooler air begins to move in behind this next trough axis. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Large scale troughing over the Great Lakes will keep a cool and moist weather pattern in place over the Ohio Valley through Tuesday. With that said, subsidence behind the early morning wave might help to keep precipitation to a minimum over the ILN CWA through much of the day. As the main axis of the trough approaches late Tuesday afternoon into the evening, some light rain may begin to again overspread the area from the northwest. Strong cold advection at 850mb will be ongoing through the short term forecast period, leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Because of this, some gusty winds will be possible -- up to 30 knots in the northern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be in the 50s for highs, and while some lower 40s to upper 30s are expected for min temps late Tuesday night, the winds should keep frost potential low. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday morning a potent upper level low will be pulling northeast towards the Hudson Bay. 850 mb temperatures Wednesday will be a degree or two below zero with clouds hanging around the area. This will keep high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s or close to 15 degrees below normal. Thursday morning the upper level low will pull northeast as the upper level trough axis begins to modulate. A frost still looks possible Thursday morning, but it doesn`t look as cold as in previous model runs. Even tough skies are forecast to clear surface high pressure is now pushed south with a tighter pressure gradient/ slightly stronger winds across the area. During the day Thursday low level thermal profiles will continue to recover and with mostly sunny skies high temperatures will likely be in the 60s. This warm up will be brief though as near 590 dm heights off of the Washington coast allows another potent shortwave to dive south. Late Friday morning the surface cold front will be entering our western zones with colder air behind. PWATs along the front are expected to surge to around 0.80" and with sufficient upper level jet support have gone ahead and raised PoPs. Saturday through Monday the region will dry out with temperatures falling 10 to 15 degrees below normal. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be only 5 degrees below zero which will easily make high temperatures only in the upper 40s some days. Overnight lows will also be near freezing Sunday and Monday mornings with surface high pressure building in from the west. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Several surface troughs will rotate through the area as a deep upper level low migrates through the Great Lakes. This will result in several bands of rain showers that will pivot across the area overnight into Tuesday. VFR CIGS will drop down to MVFR toward sunrise as the next axis of pcpn moves in. These MVFR are generally expected to lift back to VFR by late morning/early afternoon before coming back down this evening. Vsbys will also be variable with VFR conditions outside of rain showers but dropping to MVFR or lower in some of the heavier rain showers. Pcpn coverage will generally decrease though the morning into the afternoon hours. Breezy southwest to west winds will persist today with some gusts to up 25 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible at times through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...AR

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