Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271523 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1023 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance will result in a chance of showers today. A warm front will lift north across the region on Tuesday, leading to mild temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will sag slowly southeast across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will bring a continuation of widespread showers and thunderstorms through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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An upper level disturbance will continue to move across the region today. In addition isentropic lift will be present across primarily eastern portions of the forecast area. Due to this have higher rain chances across eastern portions of the region today. The upper level disturbance and isentropic lift will push out of the area by this evening and precipitation is expected to briefly taper off. Decreased temperatures today with cloud cover and precipitation. Guidance values support this as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A warm front will approach from the southwest overnight and then lift northeast across our area through Tuesday morning. This will be accompanied by strengthening southwesterly low and mid level flow on Tuesday with a 40-50 knot 850 jet nosing into western portions of our fa toward daybreak and then overspreading the rest of our area during the mid to late morning hours. In increasing low level convergence and isentropic lift, expect to see shower development spread into southwest/western portions of our area late tonight and then become more numerous across the remainder of our area as we progress through the morning on Tuesday. As we get more into the warm sector and start to see some destabilization, some embedded thunder will also be possible. This activity should then push off to our east through the afternoon hours on Tuesday. In developing low level WAA, expect highs on Tuesday mainly in the 60s. Short wave energy will move out of central Rockies and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. As it does, a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes into the mid Mississippi Valley will sag slowly southeast into our area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with waves of low pressure riding northeast along the front. There continues to be some model timing and placement issues with the front as it moves through our area on Wednesday, with the 00Z GFS and CMC generally faster than the 00Z ECMWF and NAM. Nonetheless, in broad and strong southwesterly flow ahead of this, strong moisture transport will develop across the region Tuesday night with PWs pushing up into the 1.25 to possibly 1.5 inch range. This will also help pull some better instabilities northeast into at least western portions of our fa later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will allow for more widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop/spread into our area Tuesday night and push down across our area heading into Wednesday. Very strong wind fields will result in impressive lower and deep shear values and hodographs. The biggest question will be the amount of instability but it does looks like there should be at least enough to combine with the strong dynamics to result in a decent severe threat Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given the high PWs and possibility for some training storms, heavy rain will also be a concern. GEFS plumes are ranging from 1 to 2 inches of rain across our area and we could end up with localized higher amounts than this. Six hour FFG values are running around 2 inches so we may very well end up with some flooding concerns as well Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will likely be non diurnal both Tuesday night and Wednesday and will be dependent on the exact timing of the front. Will keep temperatures pretty steady Tuesday night given the good southerly flow and then start to drop them off across at least the northwest heading into Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak clipper type system will drop down out of Canada Wednesday night and pivot east across the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night. This will lead to a chance of showers for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with the highest pops across our northeast, closest to the better forcing. Depending on the timing, we may be cold enough for a brief mix across our northwest on Thursday. However, thermal fields off the forecast soundings suggest the pcpn should be mainly liquid during the day on Thursday, before possibly changing over to some snow from the north Thursday night before ending. Weak mid and upper level ridging will develop through the end of the week. A weak short wave may drop down across the Great Lakes on Saturday but it looks like any pcpn associated with this should remain well off to our north. In developing WAA, temperatures will moderate through the weekend with readings pushing well above normal once again. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Light precipitation will continue to spread up into areas mainly to the southeast of I-71 this morning. This is in association with a weak upper level disturbance that will push east across the area through this afternoon coupled with a 30-40 knot low level jet that is nosing up into the Ohio Valley this morning. Cigs are running VFR attm but they should lower down into MVFR later this morning as the lower levels continue to saturate. The better forcing will mostly shift off to the east through this afternoon, but with some weak isentropic lift persisting, a few showers may linger through the afternoon hours. Will generally cover this threat with a VCSH. Cigs should lift back into VFR heading into this evening. A warm front will approach from the southwest late tonight and into Tuesday morning. This will lead to some shower development toward daybreak with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm then continuing through the morning hours. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible into Wednesday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday night and be possible again Thursday night. Wind gusts to 30 kts will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...JGL

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