Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230208 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1008 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL EARLY THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HI BUILDING IN TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOR COOLEST NIGHT THIS SEASON AND SINCE THE MIDDLE OF MAY. STAYED CLOSE TO PREV FCST WITH WIDESPREAD 40 TO 45 RANGE AND UPPER 30S LIKELY IN THE COLDER POCKETS. SOME BRIEF LOCAL FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER COLDER N-NE COUNTIES. SO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO PRODUCT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AIR MASS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ATMOSPHERE WARMING OVER PERIOD AND EXPECT A GOOD RECOVERY FROM COOL MORNING LOWS. WILL LIKELY SEE BIG DIURNAL RANGE. HAVE GONE NEAR GUIDANCE BUT A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A S/W DIGGING UNDERNEATH THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE INTO LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ERRED ON THE WARM SIDE OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND THE COOL SIDE OF NIGHTTIME LOWS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. THIS STILL PUTS TEMPS ABOUT 7-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGHS AND 4-6 DEG ABOVE ON LOWS. GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAD A 2-4 DEG RANGE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND THE FCST TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MID MS VLY WILL BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT NW WINDS VEERING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. UNDER LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR AIR REGIME...LOCAL FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLUK AND KILN. HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF FOG AT KILN TO MVFR RESTRICTION BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. KLUK VALLEY LOCATION MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PADGETT NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...PADGETT LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...AR

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