Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250552 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 152 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Several rounds of upper level energy will work across the Ohio Valley tonight into Thursday. This energy combined with a warm and moist airmass will bring the chance for thunderstorms. High pressure will bring drier conditions for Friday and Saturday, before precipitation chances return for Sunday and into the new week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Tornado watch has been allowed to expire. Due to bug, it might appear to some software might that it is still up because the Indianapolis office extended the watch for a couple more hours. Kept high pops in the nw with the line of convection moving thru. Chance of severe weather should be lowering as the boundary layer sets up making it hard for any winds to reach the ground. Pcpn chances will continue to fade as the night progresses. Temperatures tonight will remain very warm with lows in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... On Thursday, another H5 S/W will work across nrn IN into nw OH along the nrn edge of the upper ridge. In the meantime a cdfnt will be dropping southeast towards the region from the wrn lakes. The best chance of convection will be across that nrn IN into nw OH during the aftn, but there will be a chance that the storms could develop into the nrn portions of the fa. It looks like Thursday will be a hot and humid day with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the north to the lower 90s along the Ohio River. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, the heat index will reach 95 to 100 degrees, so added a mention to the HWO. Convergence along the front becomes diffuse quickly Thursday night, so pcpn chances come to an end quickly. Low temperatures Thursday night will be slightly lower, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will bring a slightly drier air mass for Friday and Friday night. Continued with the dry forecast. Highs on from will be in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will exit the region Saturday and surface easterly flow will turn southerly. Cloud cover from convection in the midwest spill into the Ohio Valley. A surface boundary is expected to lay out over the region early Sunday as high pressure builds in the Upper Midwest. This should just provide a modest increase in diurnal thunderstorm activity chances Sunday with a little more increase on Monday, both with subsequent nighttime drops in these chances. Northeast flow on Monday into Tuesday night is expected as the high traverses the Great Lakes region. Another repeat of increased chances of afternoon thunderstorms is expected Tuesday and Wednesday given what will become a nebulous surface pattern. While all of the potential precipitation may not contain thunder, have not tried to minimize the morning and evening chances by calling them showers, even though this may be how the pattern materializes. Just peppered any precip chances in the extended as thunderstorms. With a large and slow moving high in the upper atmosphere centered from the Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and with mainly warm advection in the lower levels, a return to mid-summer heat is indicated. High temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s will couple with dew points near 70 to make increasingly uncomfortable air to the region. Some lower 80s temperatures may be expected in areas where precip develops and skies remain cloudy all day. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A trailing line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the northern terminals of KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK through 12Z. MVFR ceilings to local IFR/LIFR visibilities can be expected. Otherwise, for later today, a weak cold front will approach the region by late in the day. Latest model guidance, including high resolution/convection allowing models indicate that the region should stay dry before the cold front starts to sag into northern Indiana and northern Ohio between 21Z and 00Z. As this occurs, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the frontal boundary. For tonight, the weak cold front is expected to sag south toward the Ohio River. With the loss of daytime heating, and the lack of significant forcing either in the lower and upper levels, scattered showers and thunderstorms should wane this evening/overnight as the front moves south. Given the low chances of precipitation making it to KDAY/KCMH/KLCK at this time, have kept these terminals dry. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Hickman

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