Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 102322
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
722 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
ON SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT COULD AFFECT NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR AN OLD BOUNDARY HAVE
DISSIPATED. THAT LEAVES DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS CUMULUS GO AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL IN THE MID 50S RURAL TO AROUND
60 AT URBAN LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST.
WARM ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.

A FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL START
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE
FROM PRECIP ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN COUNTIES NORTH OF
I-70...WHERE MODELS DEPICT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 84
NORTH TO 90 SOUTH IN THE WARM AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE START OF THE LONG TERM
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH
THE AREA KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.  A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 70S.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE
AREA TONIGHT. SOME RIVER FOG MAY AFFECT KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE. SCT
FAIR WEATHER CU WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...MAINLY
UNDER 5 KT...BY THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM KILN WESTWARD. WINDS AT KLCK
AND KCMH WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...LATTO





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