Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 191146
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
646 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today before sliding
east of the Ohio Valley on Monday. Morning clouds and some fog
will give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. Much above normal
temperatures will continue through at least the first part of the
week. A weak cold front will provide a chance of rain Tuesday,
but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the
upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected midweek before
rain chances return for the end of the workweek with the approach
of a storm system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level deformation and associated rain showers have moved
southeast of ILN/s FA. A weak e-w oriented front over northern
Ohio to settle into central Ohio and stall out an lose its
identity. The low level flow will veer westerly with
lower levels saturating. Latest satl imagery shows low level
clouds developing acrs portion of southern and central Indiana.
These low clouds will develop across ILN/s FA early.

Drier air from the north will provide increasing sunshine from
the northwest to southeast during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Clouds will likely keep temperatures a little
below yesterdays readings. Warm temperatures to continue with
highs generally in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sharp full latitude mid level ridge to build into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday. Surface ridge axis will slide just
east of the region by Monday morning. Expect dry conditions
tonight with only high level clouds spilling over the mid level
ridge. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight due to light
wind flow. Lows to range from the upper 30s far northeast to the
lower 40s southwest.

With mid level ridge build and amplifying over the region Monday
expect continued dry weather with a warming trend. High level
clouds will continue to cover the area. High temperatures will
approach record values Monday, ranging from the lower 60s far
northeast to the upper 60s southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Area will be under a warm and dry southerly flow Monday night to
early Tuesday. A weak cold front will bring a good chance of showers
Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night. High pressure and dry weather
will follow for Wednesday. A vigorous low pressure system moving to
the western Great Lakes will impact the area starting on Thursday
and continuing through Friday. First, a warm front developing ahead
of the low will be the focus for showers on Thursday. For Friday,
showers and thunderstorms will be likely with passage of a cold
front extending south from the low center. Saturday should be dry
with high pressure moving to the lower Ohio Valley.

Warm advection and sunshine, and the presence of an upper ridge
across the eastern CONUS, will allow much above normal temperatures
to persist for most of the period. Highs are forecast to be in the
60s Tuesday through Friday. A reduction to near normal 40s appears
to be in store for Saturday in a northwest flow behind the vigorous
low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper trough is moving east, with surface high pressure
following. Low level moisture trapped under a subsidence
inversion is resulting in IFR conditions to start the TAF
period. Conditions will be slow to improve in a regime of slow
progression and rather light wind flow. TAF sites may recover to
VFR by around 18z. VFR may then persist through the end of the
forecast as high pressure continues to build across Kentucky.
Winds will generally be out of the west today, becoming
southeast by the end of the period, with speeds decreasing as
the high travels east.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures
Date     CVG           CMH                DAY
Sun 2/19 74(1939)      70(1939)           70(1939)
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016)      69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930)      71(1997)           68(1930)

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Coniglio
CLIMATE...



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