Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 200553
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
153 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOSING UP INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT HAVE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS STILL DO NOT LOOK GREAT FOR THUNDER HOWEVER A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY. DUE TO
THIS HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK DRUGGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE
WILL EXTEND EAST INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY WITH A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK TROUGH
AND LINGERING MOISTURE. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME
IN SHALLOW LIFT GENERATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. BR IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE HUMID AIRMASS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





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