Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 201535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1035 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

A mild airmass will settle across the region today in the wake of
a warm frontal passage. The next chance for rain will then be on
Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves through the region.
Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend.


The steady rains of last night have moved north of the fa. Radar
is still picking up some lighter echoes, which are probably some
areas of drizzle. So have transitioned from rain shower wording to
drizzle for the next few hours. The drizzle chances should end
from sw to ne.

Still looking at highs this afternoon ranging from the mid 50s in
the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast.


Brief mid level ridging will weaken overnight with our area
remaining in broad southwesterly flow tonight into Saturday. This will
allow for developing isentropic lift across the region.
Initially, deeper moisture will be lacking tonight so think any
shower activity will be spotty. We will then moisten up through
the day on Saturday with an increasing chance of showers through
the day and then continuing into Saturday night. Some weak
instabilities will develop through the afternoon hours and this
could lead to a few embedded thunderstorms. Think the best chance
for any thunder would be across our southern areas Saturday
afternoon into possibly Saturday evening. In continued WAA, highs
on Saturday will range from the upper 50s in the north to the mid
60s across the south. An upper level low will push east into the
Southeastern United States through the day on Sunday. Ahead of
this, some weak mid level energy will eject northward toward the
Ohio Valley so will hang on to chance pops through the rest of the
weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs on
Sunday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


As the low moves ENE going into Monday, and with precipitable
water values continuing to remain high for January (near or just
under an inch), an increase in rain chances will eventually occur
through Monday and Monday night -- especially in the eastern half
of the forecast area. Overall model differences with respect to
timing are small (when considering longitudinal position) but
placement of the low / forcing / precipitation remain a little
less clear.

Once the low has moved from south of the region to southeast of the
region, a switch to northerly flow will allow for a gradual drop in
temperatures through Monday and Tuesday. Generally dry conditions
are expected on Tuesday, as a narrow ridge arrives into the area.
Forecast specifics become less certain by Monday night and Tuesday,
with GEFS 500mb height plots showing a wide range in both amplitude
and timing of the ridge (and the next wave following behind it).
What appears fairly certain is that warmer-than-normal conditions
will continue through Wednesday, before a cold front moves through
the area at some point on that day, helping to bring in some colder
air for the end of the week. Confidence is low with regards to
precipitation chances with this front, as GFS/ECMWF suggest it will
be lacking in deep moisture.

With broad troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on
Thursday, some light precipitation may develop -- and temperatures
during the low end of the diurnal cycle may be cool enough to
support some snow.


An area of low pressure was located just west of the TAF sites
this morning and is responsible for a broad shield of
precipitation across the area. The surface low will continue to
track northeast taking the precipitation with it. Rain will come
to an end across all TAF sites by 15z this morning.

Most terminals are IFR this morning with high res models showing
CIGs slowly trying to improve this afternoon. Latest GFS and NAM
forecast soundings also indicate mostly IFR/ MVFR conditions
through the TAF issuance. Looking at the GFS parallel run though
does indicate signs of clouds breaking with TAF sites possible
going VFR this afternoon. Generally in a WAA scheme there are
breaks in the clouds and have trended TAFs this direction. Friday
night into Saturday morning forecast soundings again show
low level RH approaching 100 percent meaning a return of IFR

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible into Saturday, and then late
Sunday into Tuesday.




LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.