Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 200831

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
431 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

A warm front will lift north from the Ohio Valley into the Great
Lakes region early this morning. A surface low pressure center
will cross east through Michigan and a trailing cold front will
spark thunderstorm activity later today and tonight. The front
will pass southeast of Ohio early Friday morning.


A strong southwest flow over the region today will bring in
temperatures approaching 80 degrees, as well as dewpoints around
60 degrees. Given some breaks in the cloud cover early today,
the combination of low level moisture and diurnal heating will
interact with thunderstorms that develop along and ahead of the
front. Add a expected favorable wind profile to this and
thunderstorms may reach severe strength with damaging winds and
large hail. This is particularly true in the late day and early
evening northwest of the I-71 corridor and even moreso north of
metropolitan Dayton.

Model soundings are indicating wind gusts to 30 mph today well
ahead of any thunderstorm activity.


Storms will quickly race southeast in the evening ahead of the
front, which will cross the I-71 corridor after midnight,
marking the end to any lingering activity. Severe storms will
quickly wane and are not expected to be tapping a favorable
atmosphere after late evening.

Temperatures will fall into the 50s behind the front, with some
upper 40s found in northwestern CWA. Thunderstorms will lose any
instability before daybreak, so primarily showers are forecast
for the southeastern portions of the CWA by daybreak.

Cloud cover never quite clears up behind the front as storms
continue to fire over southern Kentucky during the day and upper
level flow remains west-southwest with a trailing longwave
trough still extending from the Great Lakes into the central
Plains. Surface high pressure will help usher in the colder air
and overnight lows Friday will drop into the 40s after daytime
highs only in the 60s. The better shot of cold air will occur
Saturday with highs topping out in the mid 50s as the upper
trough crosses south into the region and hangs up along the Ohio
Valley overnight Saturday.

The showers that were over southern Kentucky on Saturday are
expected to be pulled into southern and southeastern CWA on the
east side of the longwave trough. Showers that develop in this
area have a higher potential for prolonged moderate rainfall.
Have included a chance of thunder and moderate rainfall where
pops were likely and higher for Saturday. Overnight lows will
be in the 40s once again, and highs on Sunday will moderate
somewhat into the lower 60s.


High pressure and dry conditions are expected Sunday night into
Monday. A weak system moves through the region on Tuesday,
however moisture is limited and therefore kept precipitation
chances out of the forecast at this time. Dry conditions
continue through the daytime hours on Wednesday.


TAFs remain warm sectored early this morning with the bulk of
the convection running north of them through nrn OH. Expect this
to be the case for the remainder of the night. Wly H5 flow will
bring cirrus deck back into the tafs by 09Z.

The tafs will remain dry for a majority of Thursday. However
sfc winds will increase later this morning as mixing gets under
the way in advance of a cold front. Gusts around 25 to 30 knots
will be possible during the afternoon.

Focus then shifts to line of convection that is forecast to
develop across the lower Ohio Valley today and move into the
tafs. 00Z models are a little slower with the convection, so
have delayed the storms into the tafs until after 00Z. Storms
should bring a period of MVFR conditions between 00Z-06Z.

For the CVG 30 hour taf, brought MVFR cigs in as fropa.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday.




NEAR TERM...Franks
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