Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 041630
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1230 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL
PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE A A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO YESTERDAYS OVERCAST AND RAINY
CONDITIONS. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. NO CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MID LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW AND
MINOR RIDGING BUILDING IN. LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SE WILL COME TO AN END AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY.
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS THE NW COUNTIES...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE FOG WILL IMPROVE WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF OHIO INTO PA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE MID 60S SW.

MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS TAKING
MOISTURE INTO NRN KY SUNDAY AFTN AHD OF THIS LOW. WILL INTRODUCE
CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NNE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE SE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT
ABOUND...AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ONE ANOTHER. HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE
TUESDAY AND LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE
SUNRISES. OTHER THAN THAT VFR.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES





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