Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 062114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
414 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

A low pressure system will exit the area tonight. High pressure
will work into the area for Wednesday. A cold front and upper
level disturbance will move through Wednesday night into Thursday
bringing much cooler air to the region.


More widespread precipitation is limited to extreme eastern
portions of the forecast area. Some drizzle will remain across the
area through the early evening hours before ending. Any drizzle is
expected to end before temperatures drop below freezing. Model
sounding profiles do not support a longer period of drizzle,
therefore expect it to end pretty early. Have some patchy fog in
early as some vsbys are reduced, however winds are expected to
pick up this evening. With the drizzle coming to an end and the
winds picking up, expect vsbys to improve.


High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Isolated snow showers will be possible Wednesday night. The
bigger story with this system will be the temperature change as
much cooler air is brought into the region. Temperatures are
expected to drop down into the 20s Wednesday night. Not expecting
to see much in the way of temperature recovery on Thursday
especially across northwestern portions of the region. High
temperatures on Thursday are expected to be in the middle 20s to
middle 30s. Some lake effect snow showers and lake effect flurries
will continue through the end of the short term. In addition
expect a decent amount of cloud cover through this time with upper
trough and winds off of the lake.


With the region under a chilly westerly flow on on Friday, bulk
of snow showers should be confined to the Great Lakes, with only a
slight chance for snow showers in far northern counties. Dry
weather is expected areawide on Saturday when high pressure is
forecast to build to the south.

A cold front and wave of low pressure will approach from the west
Sunday before crossing the area Sunday night. Rain will be the
primary type of precip with the front, with snow mixing in at the
start and end of the event. Light precip may linger Monday in the
cyclonic flow off the Great Lakes. A few snow showers will be
possible Tuesday in northern locations, ahead of an Arctic cold

Look for below normal temperatures through the period. Highs Friday
are forecast to be in the upper 20s, then up to around 30 Saturday.
Modestly warmer readings near 40 are expected for Sunday through


Surface low southeast of the TAF sites will continue to lift
northeast this afternoon. As this occurs, the back edge of the
rain shield will pass from west to east across the terminals.
However, there will continue to be mist and perhaps some drizzle.
In addition, IFR ceilings will persist. Expect to see ceilings
gradually lift and become MVFR after 00Z with visibilities
becoming unrestricted. West winds will strengthen slightly during
this time with some gusts around 20 kt possible. Clouds will clear
from west to east after 06z and winds will relax. VFR will prevail
through the remainder of the TAF period with high to mid clouds
and winds backing slightly but remaining at or below 10 kt.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Thursday and Friday.




LONG TERM...Coniglio
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