Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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349
FXUS61 KILN 030911
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY. A DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FA.
HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A PLUME OF
MOISTURE RIDING A 75 KNOT 850 MB JET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER TWO
INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING SO FAR.
MILL CREEK IN CINCINNATI IS IN FLOOD AT EVENDALE...WHILE OTHER
STREAMS APPEAR TO BE STAYING IN THEIR BANKS AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OTHER RIVER POINTS FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WATER
PROBLEMS.

SHOWERS ARE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE...OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON IN A DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.

TEMPERATURES ARE MILD TO START BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
READINGS TO FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT MAY BRUSH OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN FREE FROM PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT
ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WHOLE FA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 30S ON THURSDAY. A RISE TO THE LOWER 40S IS INDICATED FOR
FRIDAY DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST FOCUS ON POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MONDAY AND
ARCTIC TYPE AIR. PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE REGIME. WEAK
FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIMITED CHANGE OF
AIR. WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE S/W AND COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF
AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION WITH
FALLING TEMPS. COLDEST AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. IN THIS REGIME WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY
ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH COLD AIR AND SNOW. HAVE GONE GENERALLY AT
OR BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP SFC LOW TO TRACK NORTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU THE TAF SITES.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
INTO WESTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AND CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BRIEFLY DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THRU
09Z.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CIGS WILL DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY
AND THEN LINGER THRU THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME DRYING TO TAKE
PLACE WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN IN DRY SLOT. WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPING TODAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS DURG THE AFTN. LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN
LATER TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...AR



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