Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 170023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
723 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight along with the possibility
of a few flurries. High pressure will build into the Tennessee
Valley Wednesday into Thursday, leading to dry conditions and a
gradual warming trend.


Back edge of snow looks to be finally pushing east and should be
out of our area in the next hour or so. Will therefore go ahead
and allow for the advisory to end at 4 PM. Meanwhile, a low
level trough axis is swinging across the area and behind this,
some lower clouds are spreading back in from the northwest.
These clouds should continue to overspread the area through
this evening with mostly cloudy skies expected overnight. With a
little better moisture intersecting the DGZ in the lower
levels, will go ahead and also include a mention of some
flurries tonight.

The clouds should help keep temps from dropping way off and
will generally go with lows tonight in the zero to 5 degree
range. However, if we happen to get some decent breaks, temps
would drop off quickly so will have to keep an eye on things.
Assuming temperatures do not bottom out, wind chills should
remain in the zero to 10 below range through tonight and plan on
covering that with an SPS.


Surface high pressure will begin to build east into the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow
for the low level flow across our area to slowly back to the
northwest and then the west. This will allow for some lingering
low level clouds across the area Wednesday morning to gradually
scatter out from the west later Wednesday afternoon with mainly
clear skies then expected for Wednesday night. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Despite the
clear skies Wednesday night, a tightening pressure gradient
should help keep the winds up somewhat. This should again keep
temperatures from dropping way off and will go with lows down
around 10 degrees or so.


Large area of surface high pressure to slide east across the region
through the end of the week. This feature will provide dry weather
and moderating temperatures. Temperatures by the end of the week
will warm up closer to normal. Expect highs on Friday to range from
the lower/middle 30s north to near 40 south.

A southerly low level flow will develop Saturday on the backside of
retreating surface high pressure. In WAA pattern a chance of a few
showers will exist Saturday. Temperatures expected to warm around 10
degrees above normal with highs Saturday from the lower 40s north to
the upper 40s south.

Mid/upper level flow to back with s/w and deepening surface wave
ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes Monday.
In the warm sector on Sunday the best chance of rain shifts north of
ILN/s FA. Therefore, will limit pops to very low chance category.
Expect temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs
Sunday generally between 50 and 55 degrees.

As surface wave tracks through the Great Lakes associated surface
cold front to sweep east through ILN/s FA Monday. Therefore, will
continue high pops for rain. Above normal temperatures to continue
with highs of 45-50 Monday. In the wake of this front surface high
pressure to build in providing dry weather Tuesday. Temperatures
will continue a little above normal with highs from near 40 north to
the upper 40s south.


Area of MVFR clouds has settled down over the tafs. Interesting
thing about this area of clouds is that it not attached to the
lakes, and therefore it could be transient. Actually numerous
models are indicating this, by breaking up the clouds around

Clouds will remain scattered through 12Z, when a band of clouds
off Lake Michigan will work back in. Expect the ceilings to be
MVFR with this new band. MVFR Ceilings will remain through
about 18Z when the back edge of band will move east leaving a
few high clouds.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday and Sunday.




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