Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 141958
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
358 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will pass south of the region
tonight. A weak cold front will approach the area Tuesday and
stall across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A few showers continue to develop and track across the southern
counties. Appears that there is at least one more disturbance
embedded in the west southwest flow aloft that will pass by the
region tonight. This may bring some additional showers to far
southern counties overnight. Elsewhere clouds will diminish this
evening. Lows will be mild again tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave tracking across the Great Lakes on Tuesday will cause
a weak cold front to approach the area and then slide into
northern counties Tuesday night. Forcing is quite weak with
little if any convergence along the boundary. But with glancing
upper support and increased moisture, cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms in northern counties during peak heating.
Temperatures will rise to above normal with highs into the mid
to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary will be across our northern CWFA Wednesday
morning. Then, as the upper level flow begins to amplify Wednesday
into Wednesday night, a warm front will pivot northeast into the
region from the southwest, increasing the chance of showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance for precipitation this week still
looks to occur on Thursday when an embedded s/wv moving across the
Great Lakes will combine with decent moisture transport well ahead
of a cold front in the low levels to bring the likelihood of
showers/thunderstorms. It should also be quite muggy with dewpoints
in the lower to perhaps mid 70s.

The surface cold front will slowly move east through the region
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring an end to the pcpn
threat once the front clears the region.

For Saturday into Sunday, a mean mid level trough will move through
the Great Lakes. As this occurs, surface high pressure will begin to
build into the region on Saturday, then settle over the region on
Sunday. Diurnal cumulus will lead to partly cloudy skies on Saturday
with mostly sunny conditions for Sunday as stronger subsidence takes
hold.

For Monday, the day of the Great American Eclipse, models indicate
that the surface high will be moving east, but will extend across
the region. The ECMWF suggest mostly sunny skies while the GFS tries
to bring some convective debris clouds east into the region from
upstream convection from an embedded s/wv moving into the mid
Mississippi Valley. For now, will go more toward the ECMWF which
does not show as strong as a disturbance and is much slower.

Temperatures will not be too far from climate normals through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered to broken cumulus at the beginning of the period will
continue into the evening before diminishing overnight. Winds
will become light and variable, and assuming clouds decrease
sufficiently, visibility restrictions will likely develop from
KCVG/KLUK to KILN. At this point, the chance of mist/fog at
other terminals looks lower but is still possible.. Visibilities
will improve after 12Z with cumulus redeveloping late the
period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...



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