Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
903 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS
THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB WAS GENERATING CLOUDS
AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE
OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AS WELL AS ADD A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES FOR THIS AFTN:

STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL SFC
BASED/MIXED LAYER INSTBY TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY SHOWER
OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST.

VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED  OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL
BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY
AFTN.

MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH
THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE
INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO
RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR THAT DEVELOPED IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
BURN OFF BY 13Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. SKY COVER WILL
CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING BY AFTERNOON.
MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY POINT TO SKC 00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS. LOOK FOR VFR AND SOUTH WINDS AT
CVG AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





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