Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1056 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE STILL
LINGERING WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF TROUGH AXIS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST TO KEEP THESE IN THE AREA A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO LINGERING PRECIPITATION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
TROUGH DEPARTS...WITH CLOUDS NOT TO DIMINISH UNTIL NEAR/AFTER 6PM
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH
MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME IN FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY. LIMITED ANY
PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY TUESDAY. THE 12Z
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS FOCUS MORE ON
THE SOUTHERN STREAM FOR PRECIP PRODUCTION. THIS FORECAST WILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED
A BIT FOR THIS SAME TIME IN THE EVENT TROUGHING DOES BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CLEARING WILL
OCCUR TOWARDS 00Z. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WILL
WEAKEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...





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