Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 061052 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 652 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING... ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE. GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 80S SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND AS THE SHIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. BR THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z. BR IS FORECAST TO FORM AGAIN AT LUK LATE IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY. CVG WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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