Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250947 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 447 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LOUISVILLE BY 00Z. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN EAST AND HEAD ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN EAST-WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH WARMER LOW LEVELS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL START OUT AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE IT STILL SEEMS THAT SNOW WILL PREDOMINATE RIGHT FROM THE START. RAIN- SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY PROGRESS TO NEAR I-70 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION WILL THEN PIVOT AND WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL LINGER LONGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SO HAVE BUMPED UP AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ADDED ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STARTING TIME OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WILL BE SURE TO CATCH ALL SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER BUT ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RISE PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SNOW PACK IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT WARMING THERE. WHERE GROUND IS BARE TO START THE DAY...FORECAST HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND FOR LOW TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO HAVE CIGS BECOME VFR. ALTHOUGH CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR...MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES. STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE TAF SITES RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AS THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ICE PELLETS AT KDAY FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ICE PELLETS MIXING IN...LIMITED MENTION TO A ONE HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT KDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-051>056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072. KY...NONE. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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