Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281732 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH. SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF LIFTS E. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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