Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191049 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL RESULT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE (4000-5000 FEET) BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN PATCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...HATZOS

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