Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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420 FXUS61 KILN 272359 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 659 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance will move to the east this evening. A warm front will lift northward tonight into Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area Tuesday night and move through on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A few sprinkles linger in central Ohio, but those will diminish during the evening. Some clearing from southwest to northeast will occur this evening, but additional clouds will spread back over the area overnight. Only expect a modest drop in temperatures this evening. Then readings will steady out late tonight and may even rise a bit in western counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Isentropic lift Tuesday morning will allow for some scattered shower activity. There is not any instability during the morning hours therefore left thunder out of the forecast during this time. Warm air will continue to advect into the area during the day on Tuesday allowing for temperatures to climb into the 60s. Another area of lift pushes through during the afternoon. There is some instability during the afternoon and early evening hours therefore have thunder mention during this time. Precipitation will very briefly decrease in coverage Tuesday evening into the first part of the night. An upper level disturbance approaches Tuesday night. Precipitation chances increase quickly for the second half of the night Tuesday night. Better instability works into the region and therefore have likely thunderstorm mention. Hi res models are showing several clusters of thunderstorms moving through. There is a severe threat across the area for the second half of the overnight hours. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. Some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Model soundings also show higher wind gusts beginning to move in towards the end of the short term with wind gusts even outside of thunderstorm activity around 30 to 35 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will be moving east on Wednesday as a vigorous shortwave ahead of the digging longwave trough skirts through the southern Great Lakes region. Some lingering light showers will be possible overnight Wednesday but the thunder chances and subsequent heavy rain potential will effectively end in the afternoon. A secondary lobe of vorticity in a stronger shortwave at the tail end of the longwave trough will bring another chance for showers, possibly mixed with snow Thursday night until it crosses the Ohio Valley early on Friday. Temperatures will be on a general cool-down until the longwave trough exits and ridging builds in the central U.S. for the weekend. A warming trend is in the offing for the remainder of the forecast - back to unseasonably yet pleasantly mild with highs in the 50s and lower 60 and lows in the 40s. As the forecast tails off into next week, moisture will pool in the Ohio Valley ahead of the next system, and shower activity will be increasingly possible. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of the TAF period. 6-8k ft deck will clear out early but be quickly replaced by a higher mid deck. An area of showers will move across the region during the day. Cannot rule out some thunder, but the probability that far out is too low to include in the TAFs. Ceilings will fall through MVFR and eventually reach IFR with the precipitation with only MVFR restrictions to visibility. After the showers depart, ceilings may lift back above 1000 ft late in the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibilities are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as well as a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings may linger Wednesday afternoon and night. In addition, wind gusts to 30 kt will be possible during that time. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible again Thursday night into Friday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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