Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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469 FXUS61 KILN 230825 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 425 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will drop southeast across the area today and will interact with the moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy. This will produce periods of heavy rain today into tonight. Behind the system, temperatures will drop below normal for the weekend and into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A complex scenario is setting up across the region today. Deep tropical moisture has been lifting into the region ahead of what remains of Cindy. Band of showers associated with that moisture has is now lifting across the nrn counties. As the center of Cindy lifts north today, the models develop a band of heavy rain across the region. Models have been struggling with their placement of the band. The last few runs of the RAP and HRRR have trended towards a more southern placement, bringing the heavy rain swath into the Cinci Tri- State around 12Z. Previous models were showing this a little farther to the north. So expect this first heavy rain band to affect se IN into srn OH this morning. Then as the cdfnt drops south today, showers and thunderstorms will drop down from nrn OH/IN and will combine into a large swath. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain will be possible in the srn areas, with locally higher amounts possible. Will keep the flash flood watch up as is. In addition to the flood threat today, there will be a chance of severe weather se of I-71. A 40-50 kt jet which is forecast to move across TN into srn KY this afternoon, createes favorable low-level shear. Storms will be capable of producing strong winds along with a tornado. Highs today will range from the mid 70s in the Whitewater Valley to the lower 80s in the lower Scioto Valley and ne KY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Showers and thunderstorms will still be ongoing this evening with heavy rain still affecting the southeast. The precipitation will push east of the region during the first half of the night. Temperatures will drop down to the lower to mid 60s. An isolated location in the nw might reach the upper 50s. On Saturday, a S/W will swing across nrn OH in the fast westerly H5 flow. Showers try to develop across nrn Ohio on Saturday. For now left them north of the region, but this might have to be adjusted in later forecasts. Highs will range from the mid 70s in the nw to lower 80s in the se on Saturday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Surface high will nose in from the sw Saturday night. The clouds should scattered out as a result. Lows will drop down into the mid and upper 50s. Another S/W pivots through the Great Lakes on Sunday. Once again this may lead to few showers but left the region dry at this point. Temperatures will be cool Sunday, with highs in the mid/upper 70s. With another s/w and the mean mid level trof across the Great Lakes can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday. Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be about 10 degrees below normal with highs on Monday in the lower and middle 70s. Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday with highs generally in the mid 70s. Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday in the lower 80s. Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn. With an increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Area of rain moving east-northeast will exit ILN and DAY TAF sites as it reaches CMH/LCK and lingers there for a few hours early this morning. Area of rain well southwest of the region will work in and most TAF sites will be raining towards daybreak as the remnants of ts Cindy gets pulled northeast and into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Attm, showers are not exhibiting any lightning from this system and the instability with the northern line of storms will weaken as the moisture tap from the gulf interrupts the deeper convection as the forcing of the front moves south into the region. Widespread rain will be found over all of the TAF sites at one point in time today, but models continue to vary in the timing and placement of the heaviest rain, which would have the higher propensity of thunderstorm activity today. Continue to hold off on inclusion of TS at TAF sites for now given uncertainty in spatial and temporal coverage of the thunder. As the front begins to move through towards evening, winds will shift more westerly and then northwesterly, with a rapid improvement as rain ends from nw-se. MVFR/IFR CIGs will likely linger for a while after rain ends, with an improvement to generally clear skies at end of the extended TAF period at CVG. OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible Saturday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ042>046-051>056- 060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR/Sites AVIATION...Franks

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