Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010530 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 130 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT`S CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF IND/DAY TO NEAR MFD. DIURNAL DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS CONTINUING...WITH NO LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME. SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WNW WINDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR RANGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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