Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251818 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 218 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week. This will bring dry and warm weather conditions to the region. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Region is experiencing some high level moisture from Hurricane Maria as cirrus clouds work north into the area. These will affect the region through out the day, bringing filtered sunshine. Highs a few degrees either side of 90 will be possible this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tonight into Tuesday the 500 mb ridge will finally be squeezed east as Hurricane Maria nudges north. Low level 1000/850 mb thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures drop slightly but still think 90 degrees will again be possible. Overall have taken a degree off of high temperatures for Tuesday compared to today. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid level energy dropping down across the Great Lakes will help flatten out the ridge across our area as an associated cold front pushes east through the day on Wednesday. Moisture is pretty limited through the day so will continue with just some slight chance pops heading into Wednesday afternoon, primarily across our northwest. Instability still appears to be very marginal so think any pcpn will be mainly just showers. Highs on Wednesday will range from the low 80s in the northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast. Some additional short wave energy pushing down across the Great Lakes will help carve out a deeper trough across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday into Friday before shifting off to the east through the day on Saturday. This may lead to a few showers by Friday afternoon, especially across our northeast. It will also usher in a much cooler airmass with highs on Thursday mainly in the lower 70s, cooling to highs in the mid to upper 60s by Saturday. Mid level ridging will then begin building in from the west by Sunday, leading to dry conditions and a bit of a moderation in temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Some scattered diurnal cu has popped under the cirrus canopy, but it is not expected to develop into a ceiling this afternoon. It will dissipate later this afternoon towards sunset. The cirrus which is affecting the taf is originating from Hurricane Maria. The models are in good agreement that the H3 moisture will back out of the area around 00Z, leaving mostly clear skies tonight. Guidance is hinting at fog development overnight. They increase the dewpoints after 00Z and develop widespread MVFR vsbys as the dewpoint depression reaches zero. The normal fuggy spots of LUK and ILN could see some IFR fog around sunrise. Fog will lift after 12Z, then a cu deck around 4Kft is expected to develop between 15-18Z. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Sites

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