Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290538 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 138 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. BUT SOME MID CLOUDS MAY SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE TRI-STATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GIVEN CURRENT SKY CONDITIONS AND MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT H7-H5 MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...IT APPEARS THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING CLOUD COVER IN AND OF ITSELF. A LIFTING MECHANISM NEEDS TO CONDENSE THIS MOISTURE AND IT IS APPARENTLY NOT HAPPENING WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM EASTERN KY. ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWNWARDS A GOOD BIT LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST CWA WERE A BIT WARMER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EAST WIND. DID NOT ADJUST DOWNWARD ENOUGH WITH FIRST EVENING UPDATE BUT BELIEVE THE SECOND EVENING UPDATE WILL SHOW A DECREASE OVER METRO CINCY AND NRN KY COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...S/WV WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE S/WV OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND PCPN...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO AGREEMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...JGL

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