Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 271503 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1003 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SATELLITE...OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON. THEREAFTER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY... RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH. SOME RECORD LOW MAXES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE 15...18...AND 18 AT DAY...CMH...AND CVG RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS. HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST. BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK. AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR AND VFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREA TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED BRIEFLY WITH SOME OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING. MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28 CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934 COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934 DAYTON......-3 IN 1934 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.