Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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596 FXUS61 KILN 090355 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1055 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... EAST WEST ZONE OF SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE MID PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS ZONE IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW RATES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH BUT BEING PERSISTENT FOR AN EXTENDED TIME PERIOD SHOULD LEAD TO WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND PORTSMOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW 4 INCH REPORTS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW OCCURRING INTO THE DAYTON AREA HAS LED TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER AIR ACROSS INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED DOWN LOWS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LEADING TO POTENTIAL ICY CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL TRAVERSE EAST WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS TO BE IN NVA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT ARE APPARENT IN THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING. USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15 DEGREES. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY. DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET. DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH GREATER IMPACTS AT KILN AND KCVG/KLUK. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SNOW INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW LATER IN THE MORNING. BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK. IN ADDITION WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046- 053>056-060>062-070-071-077>079-081-088. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ063>065-072>074-080-082. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ063>065- 072>074-080-082. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...

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