Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280133 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 933 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the east coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Despite a persistent signal from the HRRR, showers and storms coming off the higher terrain of eastern Kentucky and West Virginia have been unable to hold themselves together as they move NNW toward the ILN forecast area. Outside of one or two light showers, the whole CWA has been dry tonight. With the loss of daytime heating, this trend is unlikely to change, and a generally dry forecast will be maintained through the overnight period. A slight chance of a shower will remain in place in the Portsmouth area for the next few hours. There is a fairly wide range in dewpoints this evening. Some valley locations (such as KLUK and KPMH) are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. In western and central Ohio, dewpoints range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Where boundary layer moisture remains fairly high, min temps will be more mild, and may remain as high as the upper 60s to around 70 degrees (a slight increase from the previous forecast). 18Z NAM/GFS runs were not in good agreement with current obs on T/Td, so the HRRR was used as a primary basis for the forecast update. Previous Discussion > Convection across the fa remains fairly capped as some drier mid level air has worked into the region. An isolated shower did pop up in Scioto County, so isolated convection is possible late this afternoon. As for the the rest of the night. Several of the models, especially the convective allowing models are showing the the orographic convection in WV and ern KY drifting n this evening and possibly affecting the se portions of the fa. Carried a 20 PoP between 00-06Z to cover this possibility. As for the rest of the fa, went dry this evening as the best lift remains w of the fa. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Saturday, the H5 ridge over the ern U.S. continues to protect the region a little. The best lift will remain out over the plains and MS valley in the vicinity of the H5 trof/low. Lowered PoPs for tomorrow down to 30 percent as the lift looks disorganized, but some weak vorticity lifting ewd should help pop some convection. Convection should die down again Saturday Night. By Sunday, some moisture and energy from subtropical low that came onshore in the Carolina`s will affect the region. This will interact with the ejecting H5 s/w in the upper MS valley, to kick off some more scattered thunderstorms. Still kept PoPs in the 30 percent range however. Temperatures over the weekend will see highs in the lower to mid 80s. lows Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 60s again, before cooing to the lower to mid 60s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry weather appears to be in store for Monday when weak surface high pressure is forecast to develop under a flattened upper ridge. The dry conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday as the surface high travels slowly eastward on a weak westerly flow aloft. Look for a transition to a more unsettled period starting Wednesday when the upper flow backs to southwest, carrying a plume of moisture to the Ohio Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Went with lower chances for thunderstorms Wednesday, increasing on Thursday when the cold front and associated convergence and lift may be crossing the region from the west. A few thunderstorms may linger into Friday in decreasing moisture and forcing behind the front. Temperatures are forecast to stay about 5 to 10 degrees above normal Monday through Thursday in the persistent southerly flow between surface high pressure and the cold front. Readings may slide a few degrees Friday in weak cold advection behind the front, with highs still close to 80. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quiet weather conditions are expected through tomorrow morning, with VFR conditions at all TAF sites, excepting for the usual fog at KLUK. Some showers over West Virginia and eastern Kentucky may eventually move into the region later tonight, but should be dissipating, and are unlikely to have any impact at the airports. Tomorrow, winds will remain similar to the past few days, with SSW flow peaking out in the 10-15 knot range during the afternoon. The chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be a little higher, so a VCSH has been used for all of the TAFs. However, there is still a lack of certainty on exactly where or when any storms will develop. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday. There will also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sites NEAR TERM...Hatzos/Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos

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