Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 021510 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1110 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE IN ROADS TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. PER LATEST NAM AND HRRR...IT APPEARS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING TO AFFECT OUR REGION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROF/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA. FLOODING POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND SPEED OF THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...ISOLATED SEVERE...WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IF WE CAN REALIZE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE LOW END MODERATE CATEGORY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODERATING OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS STRONG NW FLOW NOT REALLY REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE FAIRLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH. THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD AREA FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE FORCING WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND LL MOISTURE NOT AS ESTABLISHED SO KEPT FCST DRY THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...INTRODUCING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BY FRIDAY...A CDFNT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A RANGE ON THE FROPA TIMING. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS SHOW FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PUT THE BEST POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50 POP ACROSS THE REGION. REDEVELOPED THE PCPN SATURDAY MORNING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER POPS TO THE NW. THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEAVES LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN NRN KY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KNOT 925-850 MB JET. THIS JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH 15Z. AS A RESULT...AM EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IN THE PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED THOUGH BY REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNINGS PCPN. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR A VCSH AHEAD OF FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR BR DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...JDR/HICKMAN LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.