Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011312 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 912 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG HAS BEEN BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST THIS MORNING. SOME OF IT HAS BECOME DENSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM. LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE NW BECAUSE OF THE STRATUS. LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING EASTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. THOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE VIGOROUS ALONG THE FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT NIGHT MAY REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL PWAT...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE MITIGATED BY DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS AND BY THE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST...AND COOLER HIGHS AROUND 70 ARE IN STORE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND PRECIP. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF 40. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND STALL OUT IN THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARED INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LAST NIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN THE CLOUDS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED WITH STRATUS EXPANDING FROM CENTRAL INTO SW OHIO. HAVE MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING ACRS ALL BUT THE KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES. IN CENTRAL OHIO HAVE MVFR CIGS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GOING INTO THIS EVENING. SOME MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDS...SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KLUK AND KILN. LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST TODAY AND SE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042-043- 045-046-051>055-060>064-070>074-077>082-088. KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ100. IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058- 059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...AR

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