Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271046 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 646 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest today and move into the Ohio Valley tonight. As it moves east on Wednesday, southerly flow will bring a warming trend to the region through the end of the week. A cold front is expected to pass to the southeast early on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A few lingering showers in the southeast will exit the region before daybreak. High pressure will bring a clearing trend and one more day of temperatures that are about 10 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As the high moves southeast tonight, return flow will bring slightly warmer min temps tonight than this morning`s lows, still in the lower to middle 50s. After this, the warming trend will begin with generally clear skies Wednesday and increasing cloud cover from the northwest Wednesday night. Temperatures here will be closest to normal, with another jump in temperatures Thursday. Overnight lows Thursday night will warm to around 70 and linger there until the next front crosses on the weekend. Daytime highs Thursday and Friday will be in the middle 80s most locations, upper 80s possible in the south and southeast given more sunshine and a longer period of time with southerly flow. Thunderstorm chances will increase on Thursday, primarily north of the I-70 corridor as a front drapes west to east through northern Ohio. The bulk of thunderstorm activity will lie north of the CWA but some outlying storms may skirt the northern quarter of the CWA during the day and overnight. By Friday, the upper level shortwave sparking most of the development will coincide with the surface boundary. This will move form northwest to southeast overnight, with the frontal system passing on Saturday. Storms that do develop will have a higher propensity of heavy rainfall from Friday into Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Have sped up the progression of the cold front on Saturday, and this is the time that has the highest incidence of thunderstorm activity. With a clearing push behind the cold front late Saturday, models have trended drier for Sunday, before warm advection begins to bring a chance of precipitation into the area again on Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Surface high will be centered over the Ohio Valley today. With weak CAA at H8, scattered cu around 3500-4000ft will develop by 15Z. The diurnal cu will dissipate with sunset. Winds will be light tonight. which will allow for fog development, especially in the river valleys. Added IFR fog late after 06Z to KLUK. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks/Hatzos AVIATION...Sites

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