Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 021851 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER LARGE INVERSION AS H5 LOW SWINGS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE. OBVIOUSLY THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK TODAY. THE RAP AND HRRR GRADUALLY BEGIN THE BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE H9 MOISTURE THE LONGEST IN THE NW. THE MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NW. THE 12Z NAM JUST CAME IN AND IT NOW LINGERS THE H9 MOISTURE ALL DAY. THE UPDATE WAS PUT OUT BEFORE THE 12Z NAM CAME IN...SO IT WAS BASED ON THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP. WENT WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST...LEANING TOWARDS THE HRRR/RAP SOLUTION...WITH A LITTLE BLEND OF THE 06Z NAM. THIS PRODUCED A MUCH CLOUDIER FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FA. BECAUSE OF THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...BACKED OFF ON THE TEMPERATURES TODAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THIS PULLED AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING ACROSS TENNESSEE TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY WHEN CAPES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. WEAK WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IN EITHER CASE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS HAVE LINGERED THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO WORK SOUTH FROM LAKE ERIE. CIGS IN CENTRAL OHIO SHOULD GO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS AT THE OTHER TAFS MVFR. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE LOCATION OF THE H9 MOISTURE HANDLED THE BEST...SO FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION. KEPT MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE, AFTER SUNSET SLOWLY LOWERED THE CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR BY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP IN THE FOG. HAVE THE FOG AND CIGS LIFTING GRADUALLY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT NOT GOING VFR UNTIL AFT 18Z IN THE EXTENDED CVG TAF. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...SITES

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