Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 200557
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1257 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017
High pressure will remain over the area through Monday morning
before sliding east of the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. Much
above normal temperatures will continue through at least the
first part of the week. A weak cold front will provide a chance
of rain Tuesday, but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue
through the upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected
midweek before rain chances return for the end of the workweek
with the approach of a storm system.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies have cleared across the area this evening and with
surface high pressure in place, winds will continue to go light
and variable overnight. With good radiational cooling this
evening, temperatures have already fallen off with temperatures
generally running in the lower to mid 40s. A few outlying areas
have even dropped into the upper 30s already. Areas of fog have
started to develop so think we will see more fog than stratus
overnight and will trend the forecast accordingly. Based on the
current temperatures, will also nudge down overnight lows a bit.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
During the day Monday an upper level trough axis over the
Western United States will amplify and slowly head east. As this
happens mid level ridging over the CWA will also amplify. This
will quickly push 850 mb temperatures towards 10 degrees C. The
main hold back for high temperatures Monday afternoon will be
the lower clouds/ fog that forms Monday morning. Monday night
the upper level trough axis will break apart with the southern
branch over Southeast Texas wrapping up into an upper level low
and the northern branch pulling northeast towards the Hudson
Bay. Tuesday morning the upper level energy will approach the
area from the west with a splitting jet just north of the area.
PWATs on both the GFS and NAM are around 1.20". This would be
near the all time daily record. For these reasons have raised
PoPs Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Well above normal temperatures are expected from Tuesday through
Friday despite a cold front moving through during the day on
Low level moisture will be trapped across the area Wednesday
keeping clouds in the forecast for Wednesday. A frontal boundary
will meander around the area for Wednesday night into Thursday
before lifting northward as a warm front. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with this feature.
Warm air will continue to surge into the area on Friday
allowing for temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A cold front will
move through Friday evening into Friday night. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will move through. Gusty winds will
especially be possible Friday night with and after the frontal
passage. Cooler conditions will be present for the remainder of
the long term.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered over
southern Ohio. This high was providing light wind flow and
mostly clear sky conditions. The boundary layer is expected
to saturate and this is already being observed with dense fog
forming at some locations. Expect visibilities of 1/2SM or less
at all TAF sites with CIGS below 1000 feet.
These IFR conditions will slowly improve during the morning
before eroding away by late morning. After the fog improves
expect VFR conditions through the afternoon into tonight with
only an increase in high level clouds.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930)
Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922)
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961)
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ070>073-
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ066-