Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241035 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 635 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS THIS MORNING. AS IT DOES A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. CLOUD COVER THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND WITH THE CLOUD COVER DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY. WARMER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF WAS THE OUTLIER YESTERDAY HOWEVER SINCE THAT TIME MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE FA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING AND PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE. DUE TO THIS THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE ADDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE FA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. PIECES OF ENERGY ARE THEN FORECAST TO ADVECT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA...LEAVING OUR AREA IN THE COLD SECTOR. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AM FORECASTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THAT TIME. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE NUDGED THE FORECAST DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND POTENTIALLY SHOWERY TIME PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MID CLOUDS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE WILL THIN LEAVING PRIMARILY CIRRUS INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR INITIALLY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BUT EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT...AND WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...LATTO AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER...NOVAK

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