Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291933 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 333 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC LOW OVER WV TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH SFC BOUNDARY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION JUST BELOW 850 MB. ALSO...DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACRS SRN OHIO. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THRU THE MORNING AND THEN ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES TO SHOW GOOD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS GOING ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST. AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING CONTINUES. SOME OF THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS TO 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW CIGS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND AFTERWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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