Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 302355 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 755 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A H5 S/W WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. 12Z MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BACKING OFF OF THE PCPN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS FORECAST DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND DROP JUST S OF THE CVG TRI-STATE AFT 06Z. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE IT WONT AFFECT THE REGION...SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE OVERNIGHT FCST. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT. LOWS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40 ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 12Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DIGGING THE H5 S/W INTO OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CUTTING IT OFF. AS THIS OCCURS A CDFNT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FA ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS DONT SEE A REASON WHY MOST OF THE AREA WONT SEE SOME RAIN TOMORROW. SINCE FROPA WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE CENTER OF SYSTEM WILL DIG QUICKLY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL THICKNESSES DROP COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW OR A FEW PELLETS OF SLEET...HOWEVER THE PCPN WILL ENDING AS THIS OCCURS. SO DONT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT I-75 WESTWARD LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD NORTH WINDS SATURDAY WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING FOR MOST OF DAY. SOME SCATTERED PCPN MIGHT LINGER IN THE ERN HALF OF THE FA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS HAVE BECOME QUICKER IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR BELOW EVERYWHERE. ISSUED A SECOND FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AFTER THE COOLEST START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUTED...REACHING THE MID 40S WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR JUST SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH ALSO PASSES EAST OF THE REGION AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP. READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 7-8 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND THE REAL WARMUP IS ON MONDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 14-15 DEG WARMER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS. FLOW ON MONDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A MORE MUTED BUT CONTINUED WARMUP WILL BE PRESENT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAPE A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WEST CENTRAL TX. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROVIDED BY YESTERDAYS EUROPEAN MODEL. AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT AND RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR A DRIER THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...BUT GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE L/W TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EUROPEAN HAS A SIMILAR UPPER TROUGH FURTHER EAST AND INDICATES IT AS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT...IE MUCH EARLIER WITH NO SURFACE LOW AND/OR PRECIP AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TONIGHT AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS DROPPING INTO MVFR CATEGORY. IN DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OHZ034-035-042-043-051-060-061-070-071-077-078. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>096. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...JGL

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