Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 260050
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
850 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
A cold front will continue to move through the area this evening.
The front will stall out across Kentucky allowing for continued
thunderstorm chances across this area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Rain across the south has allowed for temperatures to drop. Due to
this heat index values have dropped below advisory and warning
criteria. As the evening progresses temperatures will continue to
drop. Went ahead and cancelled the heat advisory and excessive
heat warning with values below criteria.
A few showers and storms will be possible this evening across
mainly southern portions of the region closer to the frontal
boundary, however severe chances have diminished. Due to this have
updated the HWO to say probability for widespread hazardous
weather is low.
Temperatures will be quicker to drop across northern portions of
the forecast area overnight as cooler and drier air begins to work
into the region.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will stall out across the area for Tuesday. This
will allow for continued thunderstorm chances across mainly
northern Kentucky. This will be largely diurnally driven although
cannot rule out some more isolated activity Tuesday morning and
Tuesday night. Dewpoints will be lower on Tuesday in addition to
lower temperatures. Due to this heat index values will be lower as
well with values in the middle to upper 80s across the north to
the lower 90s across the south closer to the boundary.
Weak upper level disturbance is expected to move through late in
the overnight hours Tuesday night. In addition a weak boundary
will be across the area. Due to this combination expect isolated
to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Limited chance
preciptiation chances to near the Interstate 70 corridor closer to
the boundary and upper level support. Due to some uncertainty on
the location of this boundary have a slight chance in across
remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather will work back into the region toward the end of
the work week. The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region will initially
be located underneath a belt of westerly flow aloft. Thereafter, mid
level energy will dig into the region from the northwest, allowing
deeper moisture to return north ahead of it, along with a greater
risk for showers and thunderstorms.
For Wednesday into Thursday, with a weak left over boundary near the
Ohio River, chance of showers and thunderstorms will be more
relegated in this area. By Friday, with a larger scale trough and
deeper moisture advecting northward, showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage.
As we head into the weekend and then into early next week, mid level
trough and moisture will gradually depart to our east. allowing
surface high pressure to build into from the north Sunday into
Monday, bringing a return to dry weather.
Temperatures will show a downward trend into the weekend due to more
clouds and the threat for rain. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90
Wednesday will lower into the lower/mid 80s by the weekend.
Nighttime lows will be mainly in the 60s.
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front stretching through area...through KCMH/KCLK/KDAY/KILN and
approaching southern locations. Most of the precipitation has
remained south and east of taf locations, but with frontal
boundary pushing through tonight and winds going nearly calm, some
expectation of mvfr visibilities at especially KLUK/KILN with
lingering low level moisture.
After 12z Tuesday, only VFR clouds expected, and with the boundary
stalling fairly well south of KLUK/KCVG, didn`t feel it was close
enough to warrant VCTS at these locations.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday.