Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281754 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 154 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An exiting surface high pressure system will see southerly winds set up over the Ohio Valley, bringing an increase in both temperature and moisture for the latter part of the week. A cold front will push east through the region early Saturday, with some pre-frontal storms affecting the region Friday night. High pressure will then build in behind it for the new week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. Went warmer than consshort for temperatures today and went closer to guidance for high temperatures. Some cu will develop for the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High clouds will continue to increase from the nw tonight from upstream convection that is not forecast to reach any part of the CWA until Thursday. Even this scenario appears less likely with the exception of the northwest, given a strong warming trend in the lower levels inhibiting any convective initiation. Storms that skirt far northern CWA on Thursday will be peeled off from convective elements further nw. The proximity of storms north of the area will keep some chance of thunderstorms north of the I-70 corridor through Thursday and overnight into Friday. Friday will see more upper level shortwaves getting closer to the CWA and less large-scale heating in the lower atmosphere. Convection will have an increased threat for hitting just about any of the CWA during the afternoon Friday, in advance of the cold front that will cross early Saturday. Friday night will have the highest propensity of storms in the region given the proximity of the cold front, increased moisture, and upper level support with shortwave energy lifting nne ahead of the longwave trough. Overnight lows in the mid 60s tonight will warm to around 70 Thurs and Fri night in the warm sector. Highs in the low to mid 80s will prevail for Thurs and Fri with generally cloudy conditions to the north and slightly more sun infiltrating to the south and east. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Timing of the frontal passage remains in question on Saturday, but the earlier solution is favored with a quicker ending of any thunderstorm activity, even in current forecast. Pops lasting into the afternoon was more of a hedge towards the GFS solution, with the l/w trough still found west of the region behind the surface front. Temperatures Saturday onward were close to climo on both highs and lows, and the next threat for thunderstorms was muddled but increased on Tuesday with the approach of a system ejecting ne into the Ohio Valley from the Midwest. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The large cirrus blowoff associated with upstream convective activity continues to stream into the area, resulting in a periodic BKN deck for northern terminals. Additionally, a few VFR Cu have developed across southwestern parts of the area, but expect that thicker cirrus shield may inhibit further development and/or expansion of the Cu field through the afternoon. One or two hi-res model solutions continue to depict remnant shower activity meandering into extreme northwestern parts of the area overnight, but think this may be a bit overdone with amount of dry air currently in place in local area. Activity should wane and dissipate well before reaching any of the TAF sites, so have kept fcsts dry. Main item of interest overnight will be the strengthening of a H8 jet which will lead to some LLWS, mainly between 06z-12z. The LLWS will likely be strongest for KDAY, with 2kft winds of 40kts possible at times during this time period. Towards end of TAF period, as mixing becomes a bit more robust, expect southwest winds of 12-15kts with gusts of 20-25kts possible, especially for higher elevation sites of KDAY and KILN. SCT mid/high level clouds and a FEW diurnally-driven Cu are expected during the day Thursday. All potential precipitation chances will likely stay to the north of the terminals and hold off until after the TAF period comes to an end. VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Thursday night through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks/Novak AVIATION...KC

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