Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241053 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 553 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A southerly flow will develop on the back side of retreating high pressure allowing for dry conditions and warmer temperatures today. A weak cold front will move through the Ohio Valley tonight and early Saturday offering only a slight chance of a shower. High pressure will build in behind the front, persisting into the middle of the work week, offering continued dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Northwest mid level flow backs westerly with surface high pressure building off the east coast. Southerly low level flow increases between this retreating surface high and an approaching cold front to our west. Southerly surface winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph. Expect a good deal of sunshine today with an increase in high level clouds late. Temperatures will warm to readings a little above normal today. Expect highs from the lower 50s north to the middle 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Mid level s/w to track through the Great Lakes with a surface cold front passing through ILN/s FA late tonight/early Saturday. Expect to see an increase in clouds late tonight with the approach of this system. Moisture is limited forcing is weak. Therefore, will limit any mention of showers to slight chance across the central and north, late tonight into early Saturday. Temperatures will be milder tonight with lows from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. Mid level trof will settle into the Great Lakes with a good deal of clouds mainly across the north Saturday. Surface high pressure nosing into the southwest will keep skies partly clouds there. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... At the beginning of the period, the area will be under a northwest flow aloft on the west flank of a large upper trough. Surface high pressure developing under the confluent upper flow will cover most of the CONUS, providing dry weather conditions. As the upper flow transitions to zonal by the middle of next week in response to a closed low forming to the west, dry weather is likely to persist through Wednesday under the massive and slow moving surface high now centered to the east. For Thursday, the upper low is forecast to shift to the Great Lakes, while a surface low develops. Increasing moisture and forcing on a southwest flow aloft will produce a chance of showers. Temperatures will start near normal, with highs in the 40s on Sunday. Under weak seasonal insolation and warm advection, expect above normal readings for the rest of the period, with highs mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will slide off to the east today with an increasing southerly flow developing in its back side. Clear skies are expected for this morning with an increase in high level clouds this afternoon. Some brief MVFR fog will be observed at the KLUK valley location early. As a weak front approaches late tonight expect mid level CIGs to develop. A few sprinkles or light rain showers are not out of the question but the probability and coverage are too low to place in the TAF forecast at this time. Light winds this morning will pick up during the day and into tonight in advance of a cold front. Expect southerly winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible this afternoon. Low level wind shear is forecast for a period tonight with a low level jet developing over the area mainly between 02Z and 08Z. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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