Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 302014 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 414 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERMIT UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTENING ACTIVITY WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A MORE ACTIVE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. ZONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERMIT H5 S/W AND VORT MAXIMA TO PERTUBATE AND ENHANCE OR INSTIGATE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A PROLONGED MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES VERSUS THE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE AIR MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE UNIFORMLY AROUND 70 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT PERMIT MUCH IN THE LINES OF NIGHTTIME COOLING. CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL POOL MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION AHEAD OF THE PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE LOW. A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND PERMITS THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO MOVE E TO PA. HOWEVER...NO PERIOD OR AREA CAN BE CONSIDERED TO NOT HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST OF KILN STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRIER MON/MON NIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BE NNW OF THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS NEVER SHIFT WEST/NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND RIPE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WERE BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR SO IN ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE MUTED BY PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. PM LOWS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR NOW. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAYS HIGHS DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH SUN WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE DAY RISE. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO KDAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. HANDLED THESE SHOWERS WITH A VCSH MENTION. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE A VCTS MENTION IN AT THE TAFS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BELIEVE THAT THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TAF SITES TONIGHT HOWEVER. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS AT KDAY AND KILN. IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...NOVAK

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