Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291151 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 651 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP BELOW NORMAL AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH AS THE COLD AIR COMES ACROSS THE LAKES. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN KENTUCKY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FA COULD END UP SEEING THE MOST SUN TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE AROUND 40 IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CAA. CU SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY AND THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH MID 20S IN THE SOUTH. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EJECTION OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HAVE ALSO TENDED TO TRACK THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH. THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALMOST TAKES ON AN OMEGA BLOCK APPEARANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEND CREDIBILITY TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION AS IT IS SLOWER THAN THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...BUT NOT AS DRAMATICALLY SLOWED AS THE 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...FRIDAY POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE SOME INDICATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IS STILL IN PLAY FOR INCLUSION IN THIS PACKAGE. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO RAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IS MAINTAINED SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD ADVECTION ON N WINDS AT 8-10KT TODAY WILL HELP KEEP THE STRATUS THAT WAS OVER SRN TAF SITES A LITTLE MORE ENTRENCHED THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE CU/STRATOCU THAT IS EXPECTED TODAY WILL DECREASE IN FAVOR OF AN AS DECK TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...FRANKS

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