Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 292005 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 405 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IN THE LOW AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...ONLY VCTS WAS EMPLOYED IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAFS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...JDR/SITES SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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