Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 121912 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 312 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAKENING MCS TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS SOME REMNANT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THAT TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH REMNANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS UR AREA WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT NEARS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PRESENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THOSE ZONES. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AT THIS TIME RANGE...AM FORECASTING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN CASE THE MORNING ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...AND THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THOSE ZONES DESTABILIZES AS WELL BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. M/L CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/G AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW END SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN...AND WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY THE EVENING. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PROXIMITY TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUN IS EXPECTED BEFORE CONVECTION ARRIVES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY SO EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ACROSS OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...INITIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCE AND COVERAGE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER/MID 70S SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY SO WILL TRIM TEMPS DOWN A BIT ACCORDINGLY. THE AIRMASS WILL THEN REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS IT GRADUALLY MODIFIES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS WE TRANSITION INTO RETURN FLOW...HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR PERSISTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST MAY MOVE TO WESTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WHEN THEY MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER OHIO. ONCE THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY REACH 20 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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