


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --821 FXUS61 KILN 152344 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 744 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will linger across the area through the week and into the weekend, keeping the threat for daily showers and thunderstorms. A seasonably warm and humid pattern will also continue. This active pattern with numerous rounds of showers and storms, especially Wednesday through the weekend, may bring the potential for heavy rain and flooding to parts of the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --While precip will become isolated overnight, the main shortwave approaches portions of northern KY by daybreak, so precip chances will increase again in this area after 09z. PWs do increase to over 2 inches or into the 90th percentile, which does raise some concern for heavy rain late tonight and into Wednesday, though overall storm movement is expected to remain progressive. Overnight lows in the lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As the shortwave moves through the area on Wednesday, showers and storms will become more widespread. This, along with a surge of 2 inch+ PWs, does increase concern for additional swaths of heavy rain, which could create 12-24 hour accumulations of 2 inches or more. This will raise the potential for localized flooding especially in southern Ohio/northern KY and SE Indiana. Highs on Wednesday in the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Zonal flow will continue aloft through the weekend. As it does, a cold front will sag south across the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday before lifting back to the north as a warm front Saturday into Sunday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Saturday. As we destabilize through the day, widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There remains some uncertainty as to just how far south the front will make it through the day on Friday. This will determine pcpn chances Friday afternoon into the evening. As of now, it looks like the best chance for showers and thunderstorms associated with the front will be across our south, closer to the front, with chances likely dropping off fairly quickly farther to the north. Temperatures will also be dependent on the placement of the front but for now will range highs on Friday from the upper 70s north to the mid 80s south. Pcpn chances will then continue at times through the weekend as the boundary lifts back to the north. There will likely be some diurnal enhancement to the the pcpn during the afternoon/evenings as we destabilize. Highs both days will be in the mid to upper 80s. Quasi-zonal flow will persist into early next week. Will therefore linger some pcpn chances on through the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --There will be plenty of cloud cover through much of the period, but for the most part ceilings are forecast to be VFR. Main concern will be for convection. At this point, there are a few time periods when there may be better focus for showers and thunderstorms. there are indications that some activity may develop after 06Z over the area which should primarily be a threat to KCMH/KLCK. Then a disturbance will push northeast across the region after 12Z bringing the potential for storms to the other terminals. In the wake of that, there is one more chance of storms moving across the region between 17Z and 22Z. Winds will be light southerly tonight and then veer to the south southwest and strengthen to 10 kt or more during the day. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056- 065. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...