Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280210 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... REMOVED ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH ON TUES OR WED. CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF LIFTS E. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS EVENING. AFTER THESE MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES BY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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