-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 011757
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFF TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE OFF MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER AND EAST OF COLUMBUS AND
MARGINALLY ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REMOVED MOST OF THE
MIX OF PRECIP EXPECTED HERE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGH
TEMPS THE SAME BUT GENERALLY LOWERED THE HOURLIES.

WANTED TO TRY TO SHOW A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WAS
REALLY ONLY ABLE TO DO THIS FOR THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
CONSIDERING ALL UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WERE STILL ACTIVELY SNOWING
EVEN IN RELATIVE LULLS OF RADAR RETURNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DRIVING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS...IT APPEARS LESS
LIKELY THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW MELT
AND ADD TO RUNOFF. SO THERE REMAINS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE OF HAVING PRECIPITATION
SPREAD BACK WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX.

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ENDED
UP USING A MOS BLEND FOR TUESDAY TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS CONCERNING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN A WARM SECTOR
WITH EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED TIME WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BLENDED GUIDANCE WAS USED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY BUT AT THIS POINT THERE SEEMS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE
WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TRIED TO BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SNOW AND SLEET/ZR MIX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ENDING MOST TAF SITES BY 23Z AND
KEEPING MVFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

H8 DRY PUNCH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK UNDERNEATH IT
TOMORROW BUT I KEPT A CIG AT CMH/LCK WHERE THE COLD POOL OF AIR AT
THIS LEVEL WILL REMAIN IN A GENERAL CAA PATTERN. REMAINING TAF
SITES WILL SEE SOME GENTLE INCREASE IN H8 TEMPS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST AND NOSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

AM NOT OVERLY CONVINCED THAT THE CIG AT CMH WILL REMAIN A MVFR CIG
BUT ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE COIN AM CONCERNED THAT THE CLOUD DECK
AT REMAINING SITES MAY BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IS IN THE FCST. MADE
THE CIG TOMORROW A TEMPO GROUP VERSUS PREVAILING ATTM.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ054>056-060>062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>053.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-070>072-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS