Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240519 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 119 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region over the next couple of days, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend through mid week. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night into Thursday bringing the next chance for precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Upper level low over the TN VLY to drift slowly south with clouds and pcpn rotating around this feature. Thick shield of high level clouds overspread ILN/s area this afternoon. ILN 00z sounding shows dry air in the low levels. Deformation zone evident on radar marking the northern extent of pcpn over ne KY and se OH. This pcpn is having a difficult time advancing into the dry air. Have continued a very low pop chance of a shower in over ILN/s southeast counties, associated with surface inverted trof. Expect some thinning of the high level clouds, especially over the northwest counties. Expect lows to range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The upper level low will continue to shift off to the southeast on Monday to just off the southeast coast through Monday night. It looks like a weak inverted trough may hang back across the Tennessee Valley possibly extending up toward the mid Ohio Valley. This will allow for the low level flow to become more east southeasterly through the day on Monday, leading to some 850 mb moisture advection up into at least our southern areas. This will likely lead to an increase in some lower level clouds as we progress through the day. Highs on Monday will be somewhat dependent on the amount of cloudiness, but generally expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... For Tuesday and Wednesday, the area will be under a dry southerly flow between slow moving areas of low pressure located to the east and west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday night and Thursday when a cold front is forecast to swing through from the west. Western locations should see more a favorable environment for precip, with eastern sites having lower pops as the front moves into less conducive conditions aloft. The front may then stall south of the Ohio River Friday, before lifting back toward the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist in the moisture, instability, and convergence associated with the front. Warm temperatures will be the rule in a regime featuring above normal geopotential heights, though readings will vary somewhat with respect to frontal position. Highs in the mid 70s Tuesday will increase to the low 80s Wednesday under warm advection ahead of the cold front. A retreat back to the low 70s Thursday due to frontal passage will be followed by a rebound back to around 80 by next weekend. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There will be a gradual increase in mid and high clouds through the period at all TAF sites, as well as a few low VFR clouds (generally above 4kft) making it into Cincinnati this morning and afternoon. If there is any potential for MVFR ceilings, it may occur briefly on Tuesday morning. Winds will remain out of the northeast today at around 10 knots, gradually shifting to the east by tonight into Tuesday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible on Thursday along with a chance of thunderstorms.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos

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