Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010843 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 443 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER INDIANAPOLIS WILL LINGER THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS RICHMOND INDIANA BY NIGHTFALL. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A VARYING MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN. S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS. TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD GO SCATTERED. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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