-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 272118
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WISCONSIN TO OHIO
TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRIMARILY OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE FA WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY. ONCE THE
HIGH CENTER MOVES CLOSER LATER TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE
WHILE WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN A CLEARING TREND. IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW COVER. WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA AND LITTLE SNOW
IN MOST SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...EXPECT LOWS TO VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH...UP TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.

THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN
UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE
TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT
CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK
UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS SW OHIO WILL DECREASE AS MID LEVEL S/W DROPS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WRAP AROUND MVFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMH/KLCK AND MAY AFFECT KILN FOR
A PERIOD THIS AFTN. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM THE WEST AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT. HAVE CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
OHIO.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND THEN SE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR