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857
FXUS61 KILN 281951
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
351 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple disturbances will allow for thunderstorm chances
through the week. The summertime pattern will allow for warmer
temperatures in the 80s each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Dry conditions are expected through the overnight hours. Some
mid and high clouds will move across the region. In addition a
few cu will be possible this afternoon. Went close to guidance
for low temperatures overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will start out the short term, however as
moisture increases a few pop up showers or storms will be
possible across southeastern portions of the region southeast of
Interstate 71. In addition, a frontal boundary will approach
from the northwest bringing thunderstorm chances to primarily
extreme northwestern portions of the forecast area.

The severe threat appears minimal across the region, however
cannot rule out an isolated damaging wind gust across far
northwestern portions of the forecast area closer to the front
and where there is better instability. Most of this activity
looks as though it would hold off until more of the evening
hours and then decrease by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will sag down toward the area through the day on
Friday. As we destabilize through the afternoon, this will lead to a
chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance across
northwest portions of our area. With the slow movement of the front,
will nudge up highs a tad for Friday, generally into the middle 80s.
The front will continue to push southeast Friday night into Saturday
as it weakens and stalls out across our area. This will result in
some better chances for showers and thunderstorms later Friday night
and through the day on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be somewhat
dependent on the placement of the front and the amount of pcpn but
should mainly be in the lower 80s.

The boundary will continue to wash out through the day on Sunday but
it may still lead to an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
We should then dry out Sunday night into Monday. However, several
mid level short waves will push east across the area through mid
week. This will lead to additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms at times through the remainder of the long term
period. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The large cirrus blowoff associated with upstream convective
activity continues to stream into the area, resulting in a
periodic BKN deck for northern terminals. Additionally, a few
VFR Cu have developed across southwestern parts of the area, but
expect that thicker cirrus shield may inhibit further
development and/or expansion of the Cu field through the
afternoon.

One or two hi-res model solutions continue to depict remnant
shower activity meandering into extreme northwestern parts of
the area overnight, but think this may be a bit overdone with
amount of dry air currently in place in local area. Activity
should wane and dissipate well before reaching any of the TAF
sites, so have kept fcsts dry.

Main item of interest overnight will be the strengthening of a
H8 jet which will lead to some LLWS, mainly between 06z-12z.
The LLWS will likely be strongest for KDAY, with 2kft winds of
40kts possible at times during this time period.

Towards end of TAF period, as mixing becomes a bit more robust,
expect southwest winds of 12-15kts with gusts of 20-25kts
possible, especially for higher elevation sites of KDAY and
KILN.

SCT mid/high level clouds and a FEW diurnally-driven Cu are
expected during the day Thursday. All potential precipitation
chances will likely stay to the north of the terminals and hold
off until after the TAF period comes to an end. VFR conditions
are expected for all sites through the period.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Thursday night
through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC