-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 280210
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMOVED ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS
EVENING. AFTER THESE MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES BY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH
INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK