-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 251438
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE CONVECTION IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

ALSO UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING AND
LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS. HIGHS WILL NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
IN THE NW TO THE MID 80 IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
SATURDAY AND GOOD DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST...BUT AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG IS PROGGED
TO NOSE INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR A THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE...IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA WILL NOSE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PRIMARILY OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...SO WILL LIMIT POPS PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN JUST OFF
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR...BOTH
0-3 KM AND 0-1 KM...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SEASONABLY STRONG 925-850 MB
JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE PROLONGED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. WITH PW VALUES RUNNING IN THE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
RANGE...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT
ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
ASSUMING WE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE...GOOD SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE PRESENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL
BE USHERED INTO THE FA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR DECENT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM EACH DAY AFTER TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE TO COOLEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SCT CU WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. LARGE CIRRUS CANOPY TO
OUR NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THIS CLOUD COVER MAY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES OUR
AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. KEPT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF CLOUD COVER PREVENTING THE
FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...LATTO