Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300808 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL SEE A MARKED DECREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN CWA AND WILL REPLACE THE MUGGY LOWER 70S CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOUD COVER CONTINUES DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO GO SCATTERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE FOG IS TRYING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND THE FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT LUK/ILN WHERE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. SOME FEW OR SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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