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000
FXUS61 KILN 051602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1102 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL WORK ALONG THIS FRONT KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CMH TO JUST EAST OF
ILN AND CVG. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO DROP THRU THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THIS FRONT AND INITIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE
AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP INTO THE FA. PW/S ACRS THE FAR SE
WILL RUN 250 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HAVE OBSERVED SOME MODERATE
RAIN THIS MORNING IN CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SE
FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH.

BASED ON LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES COLDER A LTL QUICKER.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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BASED ON A LTL QUICKER FALLING OF TEMPERATURES HAVE ADJUSTED
TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX A LTL FASTER MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF ILNS CWA. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMES INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE REGION IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF 185 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS FORCING WL SET UP A REGION OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONS ZONE
THAT SETS UP ACRS THE I-71 CORRIDOR BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
FRIDAY AFTN. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW TOTALS
UP ACRS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...THE MIAMI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CMH AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING INTO THE RICHMOND...DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AREAS.


PREV DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT SLEET MAY MIX IN FOR
SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE WINTRY MIX WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ON FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLEET WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS TAPERED A LITTLE
BIT HOWEVER STILL EXPECT MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE
FA.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NW OF
INTERSTATE 71. WENT WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE COUNTIES
NEAR INTERSTATE 71 WITH THE LOWER WINTER STORM SNOW CRITERIA AND
WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH OF THIS AREA WHERE THE
CRITERIA IS HIGHER. IN ADDITION ALSO WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE A
LONGER PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX AND THEREFORE NOT AS HIGH OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES BY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY WITH COOL
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.  IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER RAIN MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES....ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF STATES AND
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD RAIN INTO KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY AND
PUSH INTO THE REST OF OHIO AND INDIANA LATER SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
AT THIS TIME WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS RAIN TO FREEZE ON CONTACT
WITH THE COLDER GROUND.

RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL WARM IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE
DAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN AND THEN CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR IS PULLED IN FROM THE
WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH SEE A VERY MINIMAL REBOUND ON DAYTIME
HIGHS AND THEN DROP INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
WHICH WILL DROP CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FT. IN ADDITION SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO IFR. STILL APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT THEN A WAVE OF RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS TOWARDS
00Z. THIS WILL INITIALLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR BUT EVENTUALLY
DROP TO IFR. HEADING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT THE RAIN TO
START MIXING WITH SLEET AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A CHANGE TO SNOW AT
KDAY BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX TURING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ042-051>053-060>062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-043-044.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-070>073-077>080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR OHZ074-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     KYZ089>093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR KYZ094>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     INZ066-073>075-080.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK/AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...