Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231934 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 334 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY BUT THIS COULD STILL LEAD TO A SPRINKLE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE TEMPERATURE DROP OFF WILL EVENTUALLY BE MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT THINK THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH BUT WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR LICKING..FAIRFIELD AND HOCKING COUNTIES WITH A PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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WE WILL GET INTO RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON THURSDAY WITH WAA DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE LIMITING RED FLAG CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE THE WINDS AS THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ACROSS THE EAST. THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME IS WITH A CONTINUED MENTION OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE REMAINING MODELS HAS BEEN SLOWER AND WILL TREND THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING BY THE TIME THE PCPN GETS INTO OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A SECONDARY FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUE WITH SOME LOWER END POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. PIECES OF ENERGY ARE THEN FORECAST TO ADVECT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA...LEAVING OUR AREA IN THE COLD SECTOR. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AM FORECASTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THAT TIME. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE NUDGED THE FORECAST DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND POTENTIALLY SHOWERY TIME PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME ON THURSDAY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT WILL WEAKEN AND VEER AFTER 00Z EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT EAST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ056-065-074. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...LATTO AVIATION...AR

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