Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 120547 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1247 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FLURRIES APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND THUS ANY MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST UNTIL MORNING. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT WAS OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY ERODE AND MOVE NORTHEAST. IT IS BEING REPLACED FROM THE WEST BY A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA). MIN TEMPS APPEARED MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT BASED ON HOW THINGS PLAYED OUT LAST NIGHT...THESE VALUES WERE LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO. SOME ATTENTION WAS ALSO PAID TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW. THE INITIAL WAVE APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK (AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) AND IS LACKING IN MOISTURE. THE FORECAST FOR LOW-CHANCE POPS AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS TO NEAR ZERO) STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR LATER IN THE DAY...AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY...FROM LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 25 KNOTS...AND WITH INDICATIONS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO INCREASED. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OHIO NEAR 00Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES KCVG AND KLUK. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. CIGS WILL LOWER AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...NOVAK

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