Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260005 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES IN ITS WAKE AS IT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED A BY A BRILLIANTLY SUNNY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN FLOW OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF 80S IN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT PASSES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS OHIO INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PRESSING EAST. BKN STRATUS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NOTHING BUT CLEAR SKIES ALL THE WAY TO THE ROCKIES. SO A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW/VALLEY FOG IN SOME AREAS...BUT ANALYSIS OF MOISTURE TRENDS /RAP AND NAM LOWEST 100MB MIXING RATIOS/ SUGGESTS DRYING WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS IND/OH. HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN IN NORTHERN KY GIVEN SREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITY RELATIVE MAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF KENTUCKY AND GOES SYNTHETIC FOG PRODUCT SHOWING POTENTIAL OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF KY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS OUR SOUTH LATER ON EVENING FOR PERHAPS SOME INCLUSION OF FOG INTO THE FORECASTS. FOR LOW TEMPS - KEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A NUDGE TOWARD SOME INTERNAL BIAS-CORRECTION TO ENHANCE THE WARM/COOL PRONE AREAS ON STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A DELIGHTFUL SUNDAY IN STORE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OH/KY INTO WV BY SUNDAY EVENING. EXTREMELY DEEP/DRY TROPOSPHERE IS ATTENDANT TO THESE FEATURES...WITH LOWEST 100MB MIXING RATIO/DEWPOINT TRENDS TIED VERY STRONG TO AIRMASS CURRENTLY SEEN OVER MN/ND WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 20S. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS FROM VARIOUS NWP SUGGEST 0.25" WHICH IS ABOUT 40% OF NORMAL. WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S IN A FEW SPOTS...PARTICULARLY WCNTL OH/ECNTL IND. WEAK COLD ADVECTION ESP THE FIRST 1/2 OF THE DAY KEEPS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S. AGAIN...KEPT TEMPS TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LINED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH MIXING GFS/NAM 925MB TEMPS TO THE SURFACE. A QUINTESSENTIAL FALL DAY IN THE OHIO VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHT...START TO RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE NIGHT AND NOT FALLING OFF. THIS SHOULD YIELD A SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT SAVE FOR THE SCIOTO VALLEY WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE HIGH FOR BETTER DECOUPLING. MONDAY...THINK RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. BROUGHT SKY COVER UP TO THE 50-65% RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS AS WE TRANSITION THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY /25 MPH/ IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY CLIMB. SOME DETAILED TEMP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A RUN AT 80 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT NAM RUNS /AND CONTINUING ON 25.12Z NAM/ HAVE BEEN THE WARMEST SUGGESTING +16C TO EVEN +17C 850MB TEMPS /2 SIGMA ABOVE CLIMO/ WILL BE BODILY ADVECTED INTO THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR +19C. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS AN 850MB TEMP OF +17C ON OCTOBER 27TH WOULD BE THE 2ND WARMEST 850MB TEMP FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON EVER ON THE ILN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THAT /AND THE +2 SIGMA STANDARD DEVIATION/ SUGGESTS WE CONSIDER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUNSHINE AND MIXING. BUT AM GOING TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORDS MAX TEMPS /LOW 80S AT CMH/CVG/DAY FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS: 1) COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS TOO SOUTHERLY FOR MY LIKING - WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE 240/250 /WSW/ DEGREE WIND DIRECTION INSTEAD OF 190/200 DEGREE /SSW/ WIND DIRECTION 2) BIG BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING ALL DAY THROUGH THE 50S - THIS DECREASES LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUGGESTS MIXING BEYOND 900MB WILL BE UNATTAINABLE 3)INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD FILTER AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SUN 4) ARRIVAL OF WARMEST 925MB AIR IS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON -- NOT IN PLACE DURING THE DAY LIKE FURTHER TO THE SW 5) 925MB TEMP CLIMO SUGGESTS THE FORECAST +19C BY NAM IS NOT QUITE AS ATYPICAL FOR THIS LATE IN THE YEAR...AND GIVEN THE 925MB TEMP IS A MUCH BETTER PROXY TO HIGH TEMP AROUND PER LOCAL REGRESSION EQUATIONS...WILL HALT TEMPS FROM REACHING RECORD LEVELS AND INSTEAD STOP THEM A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT...OR MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH/WEST. PREVIOUS/RECENT DAYS WITH TEMP STRUCTURE LIKE MONDAY WAS OCTOBER 30TH 2009 - CVG HIT 80F AND CMH 79. THIS WAS WITH AN 850MB TEMP OF +17C. IT WILL BE VERY CAPPED ON MONDAY SO DRY FORECAST AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUD. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP MONDAY NIGHT AND A MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARMTH MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL SKEW LOWS WAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL HOLD OFF ON RAIN MENTION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT INTO TUESDAY /DISCUSSED BELOW/. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING...WORKING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FA...BUT EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES WILL BE PULLED UP INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN INTO OUR AREA...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SATURDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN ON WEST TO NW WINDS...SO GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. FOG WILL LKLY FORM AT KLUK VALLEY LOCATION WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE. SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KILN. EXPECT FOG TO QUICKLY IMPROVE SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. .OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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