Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231723 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 123 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH FULL SUN...12Z ILN SOUNDING IS SUPPORTING A HIGH OF 59 DEGREES TODAY. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE. THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FA. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A FEW CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CU SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN SOME LOWER VFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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