Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 272032 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END. INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY. LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION. WENT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY. PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW TO SE. LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.