Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 302018 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 418 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE AREA WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF HOCKING COUNTY WHICH WILL SEE THEM DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. FAIRLY SOLID STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AND COULD LAST THE BETTER PART OF THE OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR RUNNING FROM KILN AND TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND TURNOVER IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY AND EXPERIENCE A VERY SLOW DROP WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS...AND DROP MUCH MORE QUICKLY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY WARMER AND SUNNIER THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS READINGS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY BUT THE CONGLOMERATION OF MODELS WERE INDICATING THE COLDEST INTRUSION TO BE OVER RICHMOND IN WITH THE AXIS KEEPING N OF METRO CINCINNATI AND RUNNING TOWARDS KILN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD POOL AXIS WILL MIGRATE FROM RICHMOND/WILMINGTON TO TOLEDO/ZANESVILLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLOUDY PERIOD EARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL BREAK UP IN THE LATE MORNING...ENOUGH TO PUSH HIGHS TO AT LEAST 70 DEGREES...LIKELY LOWER 70S. SOUTH OF AND ALONG OHIO RIVER WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 70S. FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY SOLID SHAPE FOR THIS PERIOD UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY AND WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REALLY BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS N-S ORIENTED FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET OF 40KT OR SO RIGHT OFF OF THE DECK. PM LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...ABOUT A 10 DEGREE JUMP FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN CWA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE 30.12Z NAM AND CANADIAN PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN A BIT WHILE THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN SPEEDING IT UP. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THESE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF FOR ITS SLIGHTLY BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. FORCING FROM THE FRONT AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF 40. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUICK MOVG H5 S/W HAS PULLED E OF KCMH/KLCK. MEANWHILE POST FRONTAL IFR STRATUS HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WONT REACH THE SRN TAFS. THAT LEAVES THE BIG QUESTION OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THEIR TYPICAL SPREAD OF EITHER CLEARING THINGS OUT OR LINGERING THE STRATUS INTO TOMORROW. BASED ON THE COLD AIR POOL BEHIND THE FNT...HAVE DECIDED TO LINGER THE STRATUS ACROSS THE NRN TAFS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALLOWING KCVG/KLUK TO SCATTERED OUT OVERNIGHT. KILN WILL BE THE TRICKY LOCATION. DOES THE STRATUS EXPAND DOWN INTO KILN OVERNIGHT AS THE SRN EDGE IS JUST TO THE NORTH. DECIDED TO KEEP THE STRATUS NORTH OF THE KILN...BUT BROUGHT MVFR/IFR FOG IN AFT 06Z. IN THE NRN TAFS LOWERED VSBYS DOWN TO IFR TOWARDS SUNRISE. VALLEY FOG SHOULD BRING KLUK DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AFFECTING CVG. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...SITES

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