Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280253 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 953 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED OUR NW CWFA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CATEGORICAL IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF ACROSS OUR NW LATE TONIGHT...SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FOR SUNDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY ACROSS THE AREA IN TERMS OF PCPN COVERAGE...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT HAVING CATEGORICAL POPS WHILE PLACES NORTHWEST OF DAYTON MAY ALREADY BE DRY. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AND EXIT SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER...BRINGING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY WILL PEAK IN THE MORNING BEFORE COLD ADVECTION RESULTS IN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY...FURTHER COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BRING HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST STARTS TO EJECT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE 12Z MODELS...AS WELL AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE SHOWN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND PARALLEL GFS H5 PATTERN ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...SO SOME PREFERENCE IS SHOWN TO THE SLOWER ECMWF PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD TEND TOWARD MOSTLY RAIN BY SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FIRST AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. MORE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW LIFR AT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION TAF SITES ALONG WITH A DROP TO IFR VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREDOMINATE. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE KDAY TERMINAL BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS THERE. OTHERWISE...IFR CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART AND MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MID MORNING OR AROUND 14Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LIFT OF CEILINGS NEAR OR ABOVE 2000 FEET BY 18Z. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW FAST POST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ERODE AND OR CLEAR. IT IS USUALLY BETTER TO ERR ON THE SLOWER SIDE AND HAVE DONE SO WITH THIS CURRENT SET OF TERMINALS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS MONDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...HICKMAN

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