Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261047 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 647 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary across Northern Kentucky will provide the focus for thunderstorm development today through Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will persist Thursday and Friday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to bring enhanced lift along the boundary. High temperatures in the middle and upper 80s today and Wednesday will fall slightly to the lower to middle 80s by Friday under clouds, precipitation and modest cold advection. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface analysis shows a frontal boundary located over Ohio early this morning that will drop south of the Ohio River today. Dew points remain in the low to mid 70s in southern locations ahead of the front, while mainly upper 60s dew points are evident north of the front. There is a good chance that thunderstorms will develop along and south of the front as it gradually makes its way south. Main area for thunderstorm formation should be in the southern third of the FA where frontal convergence will be interacting with a marginally unstable airmass containing around 1000 J/KG CAPE. Weak wind shear will inhibit development of severe thunderstorms. Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be a few degrees cooler than recent days, due to a modest amount of cold advection on a weak northerly flow behind the front. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Frontal boundary will be gradually sagging southward through Kentucky tonight through Wednesday. Thunderstorms may still develop in the persistently moist and unstable airmass associated with the front. Best chance for thunderstorms will be along and south of the Ohio River, while northern locations may not see any convective activity. For Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop to the west in response to a mid level short wave entering the Mississippi River Valley. This will result in increasing thunderstorm chances by Thursday afternoon, especially in southeast counties where forcing will coincide with peak instability. A few strong thunderstorms may occur in an environment featuring moderate instability and mid level flow. Temperatures rising to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday may slip a few degrees Thursday under clouds, precip and modest cold advection. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As we head into the weekend and then into early next week, mid level trough and moisture will gradually depart to our east. allowing surface high pressure to build into from the north Sunday into Monday, bringing a return to dry weather. Temperatures will show a downward trend into the weekend due to more clouds and the threat for rain. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 Wednesday will lower into the lower/mid 80s by the weekend. Nighttime lows will be mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface cold front has stalled out just south of KCVG/KLUK. VFR conditions with A few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm across the srn TAF sites close to the stalled front this morning. Moderate instby develops today acrs far southern Ohio/Nrn KY invof this front. Expect coverage of storms to increase durg the aftn and then diminish this evening with loss of heating. Have included a mention of VCTS at KCVG and KLUK but the possibility exists that convection could reach further north toward KILN. Expect VFR conditions this evening with an increase in clouds. Can not rule out additional precip overnight but for now the majority of model solns are keeping the region dry. Have a mention of mvfr vsby restrictions due to fog formation tonight but increase in clouds should mitigate lower vsbys. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...AR

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