Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300541 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 141 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will move through the region overnight, providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in on Monday, with drier conditions expected through the middle of the week. Another cold front will approach the region on Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Cluster of thunderstorms e of ILN will continue to drift to the SE tonight as cdfnt works in from the w. Expect a weakening trend as this occurs with pcpn being e of the fa by 06Z. Behind the convection the skies should be mostly clear. Some patchy fog could be possible from the heavy rains that fell. Lower dewpoints should work in overnight, allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Behind the weak front, no huge change in air mass is expected, though dewpoints will be 5-8 degrees lower than they were over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the lower Ohio Valley, providing light northwesterly flow across the ILN CWA. Drier conditions will allow for mostly sunny skies, and thus despite the wind shift, temperatures will again be able to reach the lower 80s across the entire forecast area. As the surface high spreads northeast across the region and into southern Michigan, tranquil conditions are expected on Monday night, with lows in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will continue over the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Warm temperatures in the lower to mid 80s will persist with lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. A mid level trough is still advertised to move from the northern and central Plains to the Great Lakes Region Wednesday into Thursday. Most of the region will squeeze out one more dry day on Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east. There could be enough moisture and diurnal instability late in the day on Wednesday for a low chance of showers/storms far west. As the mid level trough moves through the region on Thursday, an associated cold front at the surface will move through as well. There are some minor timing differences, but the region is still expected to see a gradual increase in showers and storms Wednesday night into Thursday. Warm highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday will be tempered on Thursday by clouds and the threat for precipitation. For Thursday night into Friday, the cold front is forecast to exit southeast of the region, ushering in cooler and drier air with the threat for precipitation ending. Highs on Friday will range in the 75 to 80 degree range. For the upcoming weekend, the upper level pattern will transition to a broad long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure on Saturday will give way to a weak disturbance Saturday night into Sunday. Have kept a low chance of showers and storms with this system at this time. Temperatures will generally range from 75 to 80 degrees for highs with upper 50s to lower 60s for lows. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Precipitation has exited the TAF sites. A cold front will move through overnight. Before the drier air works into the area there will be the potential for some fog overnight. Limited fog mention to KCVG, KLUK, and KILN overnight. With CAA there will be some cu develop for the daytime hours. Cu will dissipate this evening leaving clear skies across the TAF sites. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Novak

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