Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 022343 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 743 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING LATER TONIGHT. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATER TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END AS THE MAIN BODY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH UP AROUND 50 SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S. SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COOL...MOIST...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCAL IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS WELL...BUT GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WOULD SEEM TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER....THESE CEILINGS COULD EVEN DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE ALL CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AND WILL MONITOR IF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE PREDOMINATE. ON TUESDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z...AND CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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