Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280529 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1229 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WITH SNOW FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN A CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY CLEARING MAY BE BRIEF AS MID CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOWS ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING IN EARNEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARDS. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING EAST SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MID CLOUDS WITH IT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FALLING OUT OF THIS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD INCREASE A FAIR AMOUNT HEADING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECIDEDLY NON-DIURNAL. EXPECT A SMALL DROP OFF IN READINGS FRIDAY EVENING...MORE SO IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER. THEN STEADY OR PERHAPS SLOWLY RISING READINGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND STRONG ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING HOWEVER SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONTINUED FORECAST THINKING FROM YESTERDAY AND WENT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. GOING WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BROKEN CLOUD DECK OF AROUND 2000-4000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 4-8 HOURS...EVENTUALLY ENDING THE THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE STILL EVIDENT ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR...BUT THIS SHOULD ALSO END SOON...LIKELY BEFORE 12Z. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT FROM WNW TO SSW...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. ANOTHER AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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