Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 270558 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 158 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move north into Canada tonight while an attendant cold front moves east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some clouds and cooler temperatures can be expected on Wednesday. High pressure will build into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys Wednesday night, and will extend across the region into Thursday. A warm front will begin to develop across Indiana and Ohio on Friday into Saturday as southerly flow transports moisture into the area, leading to the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... For tonight, strong low pressure over Lake Superior will continue to lift north into Canada. The attendant cold front from the low will push east across the remainder of our region through early morning Wednesday. Showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, will continue to decrease in coverage as the front moves east due to decreasing forcing and instability. Post frontal CAA stratocumulus clouds will then move in late from the west. Wind gusts have already diminished outside of convection. Lows will range from the mid 30s west to the lower 40s east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... Post frontal low clouds should hang tough on Wednesday morning as westerly winds usher in colder temperatures, but through the day expect these clouds to scatter out to some degree with temperatures a few degrees either side of normal. Better clearing takes hold of the area on Wednesday night, with temperatures falling below freezing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... It`ll likely be a tale of two different weather patterns through the long term period -- a quiet one Thursday through Friday followed by a much more unsettled pattern Saturday through the beginning of next week, the latter of which will bring with it the potential for several rounds of rain and storms. For starters, the end of this workweek will close out on a relatively tranquil note as sfc high pressure builds into the TN Vly as the pronounced mid/upper level trof finally swings through the Great Lakes/OH Vly regions. This will set the stage for NW flow to become established, at least briefly, late Thursday/Thursday night, with sfc ridging nudging E into the OH Vly as we progress into Friday/Friday night. Several weak disturbances aloft will eject E through this flattening flow Thursday night through Friday night, bringing with it perhaps an increase in cloud cover. However, despite better moisture transport developing eastward into the area, LL moisture profiles should remain too meager to allow anything more than ISO measurable pcpn locally through Friday night. Near normal temps are on tap Thursday/Thursday night before slightly warmer air (5-15 degrees above normal) builds in Friday/Friday night. As we progress into the weekend, a somewhat unsettled weather pattern looks likely to evolve, with several rounds of rain and/or storms increasingly likely Saturday through at least Monday night. While the details of this pattern are still to be resolved, there is good deterministic and ensemble consensus on a wet pattern developing this weekend into early next week. Several disturbances should pivot about the nrn periphery of a midlevel ridge centered over the nrn Gulf, promoting the development of several weak low pressure waves/centers moving approximately W to E through the mid MS and OH Rvr Vlys. The first of these should develop as early as Saturday morning, with a corresponding enhanced LLJ allowing for better moisture/mass transport ENE from MO through IL/IN/OH. There will be a quasi- oscillating boundary that will become established within the region for the better part of ~3 days, which will serve as a focus for renewed/additional rounds of rain/storms each day Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. While ensemble guidance points toward higher probs of more widespread rain/storm activity Saturday near/N of I-70, PoPs have been broad-brushed at these time ranges to include a chance of precip just about everywhere. This initial wave, upon its departure Saturday night, may act to shift the aforementioned boundary S to closer to/S of the OH Rvr as drier air briefly builds in behind the first sfc wave Saturday night/early Sunday. However, renewed convective development is likely on Sunday as additional S/W energy pivots around the broad-scale ridge axis and into the OH Vly. This will coincide with more aggressive moisture transport back N into the region, with PWAT anomalies exceeding 150% of normal by Sunday night. This should allow for another round of rain/storms (with some low-end instby being shown on much of the prevailing guidance). We should see a northward pivot in the boundary once again Sunday night into Monday, with more of the local area becoming situated squarely in the warm sector of the eastward-moving system, which should eject through the central plains into the mid MS Rvr Vly by Monday afternoon. Renewed rain/storm chances will occur once again late Monday/Monday night with the better forcing and additional lift spreading E ahead of/along the front, with drier conditions finally returning by later Tuesday. There are several items to watch regarding the pattern this weekend into early next week -- most notably the repeated rounds of rain and whether the heaviest activity from each "round" moves over the same areas more than once. Still a bit too far out to isolate one specific favored area/corridor for heavy rain, but it is mentioned here for general awareness purposes, especially considering the cumulative effect as we progress into Monday/Monday night. The other item will be the potential for a few strong/severe storms late Monday/Monday night. The overall setup, from a pattern recognition perspective, certainly suggests that severe storms may develop in/near the local area if the necessary ingredients come together. And if a more wide- open warm sector is able to develop Monday afternoon/evening, allowing for a better LL thermodynamic setup, amidst seasonably strong deep-layer wind fields, a few strong to severe storms could evolve. However, even with this said, there are too many uncertainties in time and space at this juncture to include in the HWO. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface cold front to push east of the TAF sites with perhaps a lingering shower at KLCK and KCMH ending within the next hour. VFR conditions can then be expected for much of the night. Cold air advection MVFR category stratocumulus clouds will push into the west toward sunrise. On Wednesday, the CAA stratocumlus clouds will linger thru the morning hours. Clouds will lift back to VFR during the afternoon and then begin to scatter from the west as surface high pressure begins to build into the Ohio Valley. Expect clear skies Wednesday night in a drier airmass. West winds around 10 kts will becoming more northwest late in the day into Wednesday evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday. MVFR ceilings possible Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau/Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...AR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.