Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 222031 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 431 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA IN A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF FROST...PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY. THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR EVOLVES.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MVFR CIGS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...AR

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