Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 232333 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 733 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED SO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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EXPECT VFR EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ABOVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD FORMATION. LOWER CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE AROUND 15Z BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SPEEDS STAY BELOW 7 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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