Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280554 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 154 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week. Another low pressure system will affect the region Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Mid level shortwave trof over southeast IL to weaken as it tracks east through the Ohio Valley overnight. Thunder and severe weather chances have diminished with instability decreasing. Best instby located southeast of ILN/s FA. Have decreased pops and limited chance of thunder to the far southeast counties. Precipitation will diminish late tonight as the low continues off to the east. Clouds will hang on through the night with mild lows between 50 to 55. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Some wrap around showers may still affect parts of the forecast area Tuesday morning before ending entirely. Low clouds will prevail through the day and most likely all of Tuesday night. Did not see any reason to vary much from a MOS consensus on temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low level moisture will be present across the area at the start of the long term especially along and south of the Ohio River. Although decent cloud cover will be present through the day, dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. A warm front lifts northward on Thursday allowing for some shower and thunderstorm activity. A low pressure system approaches Thursday night. Models differ on how progressive this low is as it moves through the area. The ECMWF has come more into line with a slightly slower solution and therefore expect showers and thunderstorms across the region on Friday before beginning to taper off Friday night into Saturday morning. After this time expect dry conditions for a remainder of the weekend and into Monday. The next system will begin to move into the area for Monday night bringing additional precipitation. High temperatures through the long term will be in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s and 50s, however a few temperatures in the upper 30s will be possible north of Dayton to Columbus Wednesday night and Saturday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Surface low over southern Indiana to track east through the Ohio Valley this morning. Showers associated with this feature will push across the TAF sites through the morning. As the low moves through, CIGS and vsbys will drop into MVFR category in the showers and then a period of IFR CIGS. CIGS will gradually improve through the morning with MVFR conditions persisting into the afternoon hours. Variable winds will become north up to 10 kts this morning and continue through the day. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will persist into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday into Friday evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...AR

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