Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210207 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1007 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift off to the east through the weekend. This will lead to dry conditions Saturday and Sunday with a gradual increase in cloudiness. A cold front will move through the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing the next chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure and dry conditions will be present through the overnight hours. Went close to guidance for low temperatures overnight. High clouds will increase in coverage as the night progresses. River valley fog will be possible with some additional patchy fog across southeastern portions of the forecast area where it will take longer for the clouds to move into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Mid level ridging across the eastern United States will begin to gradually break down Saturday into Saturday night as troughing over the central United States shifts east. The airmass will remain dry across our area through Saturday night so outside of some occasional cirrus, expect mainly clear skies. Thermal fields drop off a tad on Saturday, but with a little airmass modification, will go with highs again mainly in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highly amplified pattern will occur through the week. Low pressure will close off over the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday with still some variation in the 12Z model suite on how quickly this will open up and lift northeast as it gets absorbed into a developing long wave trough. The entire progression has slowed enough that there will be one more dry and unseasonably warm day on Sunday. Showers may start to encroach on the western counties by later Sunday night. While details may differ, there is enough agreement in guidance to expect showers to become widespread across the entire region during the day Monday and continuing Monday night. Showers may linger into Tuesday with additional scattered activity possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, mainly across the northern counties, as the deep trough translates across the region. Temperatures will tumble with highs on Wednesday around 10 degrees below normal. The trough will be progressive and lift northeast on Thursday. This will allow for some ridging in advance of the next deep trough that will be developing in the central part of the continent. So it will dry out, although temperatures will remain a bit below normal. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the TAF sites through the TAF period. High clouds will increase through the overnight hours and for the day on Saturday. There will be the potential for some fog overnight, especially at KLUK. Have conditions improving a little earlier tonight than last night due to more clouds moving into the region. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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