Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231953 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 353 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will push slowly east across the region tonight and Tuesday. A warm front will develop and lift northward into the northern Great Lakes region. As it does, a series of upper level disturbances will initiate showers and thunderstorms at times through the end of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure will remain over the region and settle over eastern Ohio by daybreak Tuesday. Any fair wx cu will quickly dissipate by the end of the day and clear skies with light winds will be the rule for the overnight. This will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 50s in the northwest where some southerly flow may persist. Readings in the southeast will generally bottom out around 50...but there could be a larger variance in sheltered areas that act as cold-air drainage pools.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The surface high slowly moves east towards West Virginia Tuesday evening with a generally light southerly flow in the Ohio Valley found during this time. A mean upper level ridge is in place and a shortwave is progged to muscle through it overnight Tuesday. An increasing threat of showers will occur later overnight and into Wednesday, when added daytime heating would help deeper convection and thunderstorm development. Southerly flow over the region beyond tuesday will be the main surface feature for this portion of the forecast. Models are showing a larger than usual variance in how they are depicting the rain on tuesday night onward. European has an initial shot of showers and decrease the threat during the day Wednesday. NAM and SREF are consistent with earlier forecasts and a swath of rain hitting northwest cwa starting in the predawn hours and continuing into the overnight. GFS and European models are not nearly as copious with the rainfall or its areal extent. Tried to limit the showers and thunderstorms to the chance category and could see more scattered activity beyond late Tuesday night. Attm, it looks like the better chance for the H5 shortwave to initiate thunderstorm activity occurs overnight Wednesday. Models still give a wide range of solutions so confidence in the timing/placement of these showers is quite low.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Extended period begins with a broad ridge over the ern U.S. The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper Great Lakes. Weak vort maxs in the increasing low level moisture will push dewpoints into the mid 60s on Thursday. Scattered convection will be possible as daytime heating creates summer like instability over the region. Bumped highs up a few degrees to the lower to mid 80s for Thursday. The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the TAF sites through the TAF period. Cu will develop for the afternoon hours however expect clear skies for later this evening and into the overnight hours across most of the area. River valley fog is expected to develop again at KLUK. Additional cumulus will develop during the day on Tuesday. Winds are expected to be light and less than 10 knots through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Novak

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