Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 040044 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 744 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWAT 280 PERCENT OF NORMAL IS STREAMING ALONG A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PRECIP TO RAIN. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS SETTING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA AS PER LATEST MODELS. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COMBINING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. THEREFORE WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SLANTWISE VERTICAL MOTION. AS TEMPERATURES FALL DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. DEEP LAYER OF SATURATED AIR COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN STRONG UPWARD MOTION WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW. THE CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL START WEDNESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...SPREADING TO CINCINNATI BY AROUND NOON...WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING UP THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WHILE ENHANCING SNOWFALL BACK TOWARD I-71. THE STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON THURSDAY. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REQUIRE A WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-71. HIGH QPF TOTALS YIELD UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH PERHAPS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM CINCINNATI TO WILMINGTON TO LANCASTER. WENT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE WARNING INCLUDING COLUMBUS WHERE THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY AT THE EDGE OF THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS DAYTON WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO LEFT THEM OUT OF HEADLINES FOR NOW. WEST CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE SPARED THE WORST WITH LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A SHIFT IN ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY WARRANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES. THE SNOW WILL END ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RECORD LOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHILE RECORD LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO MENTION IN HWO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS MINUS 15 THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR FRIDAY MORNING...ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH AREA HAVING TO REBOUND FROM NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE SW AND BEGINS SOME WEAK WAA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF A BLEND WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TRICKY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK S/WV DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. WITH FAIRLY DRY LOWER LEVELS AND THE RIDGE SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH A BLEND AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THE FRONT MAKING ITS PUSH FURTHER INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS SHOULD BE THE RULE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AS CDFNT MAKES FROPA AFTER 06Z. KDAY/KCMH/KLCK COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX IN TOWARDS AROUND 12Z AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN COMES THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN BEFORE OVERRUNNING COMES BACK IN AFT 18Z AS SNOW. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED IN THE SNOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074- 077>082-088. KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-080. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...SITES

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