Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280146 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 946 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain across the Ohio Valley tonight. As the high moves east tomorrow, warmer air will begin to move into the region, with an increase in temperatures expected through the rest of the week. Chances for storms will increase on Thursday, and especially for Friday and Saturday, as a front gradually moves into the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The center of an area of surface high pressure is currently over the middle Ohio Valley. Winds have either become calm or light and variable. Mainly clear skies are expected overnight. Should be enough radiational cooling for some patchy shallow fog in the southern river valleys. Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to the lower 50s by sunrise Wednesday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... By Wednesday morning, the surface high will be centered over the Appalachians of West Virginia and Virginia, continuing to move east of the region. The air mass in place over the Ohio Valley will be quite dry, with 850mb moisture projections suggesting that diurnal cumulus clouds may be hard to come by. As ridging builds into the area, there will eventually be a slight increase in high clouds. This will do little to stop an obvious warming trend, as the switch to southerly flow will be pronounced -- not just at the surface, but with southwesterly warm advection aloft through the 850mb-700mb layer. Max temperatures will rebound to values close to normal -- near 80 to lower 80s from northeast to southwest. With the pattern, will take the higher end of the SREF envelope, and slightly above a NAM/GFS model consensus. Clouds will continue to increase from the NW on Wednesday night, with some concern for convection to reach the northwestern ILN counties before 12Z Thursday morning. This may be MCS-driven and thus hard to forecast at this point, but the more likely scenario would be to keep things upstream, and thus only low-end PoPs will be kept in the forecast for early Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Summertime pattern will be in place for the long term with high temperatures in the 80s and low temperatures in the 60s to around 70. Went close to the superblend for temperatures during this time. Several weak disturbances will work through the region through the long term period. Again, went close to the superblend for precipitation chances as well. There is decent instability across northwestern portions of the forecast area Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours therefore cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Without any decent forcing limited precipitation chances to the chance category for the long term except for Monday night. There is a little better signal during this time and also better model consistency therefore felt more confident in the higher precipitation chances during this time. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain across the Ohio Valley tonight. Skies will become mainly clear. Light/variable to calm winds can be expected. There will likely be some shallow patchy river fog at KLUK where predominate MVFR/TEMPO IFR visibilities were used. For Wednesday, winds will shift to the south, and will increase in strength to around 8-12 knots as the surface high moves east. Clouds should be limited to some cirrus with perhaps a slight chance of some VFR cumulus development. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Thursday through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Hickman NEAR TERM...Hatzos/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hickman

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