Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011739 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 139 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WORK VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE LOW. FLOW ALOFT IS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN. S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK TOWARD OUR FA AND WE DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS THREAT WITH A VCTS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CU SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND START TO LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS THOUGH...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN VFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A VCSH AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES. WILL NOT HIT THE BR/FG RESTRICTIONS QUITE AS HARD TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JGL

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