Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 211401 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1001 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE IMAGES ARE STARTING TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE IS STILL A PRETTY SOLID CLOUD DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER. WITH CLOUDS AND A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE SOME TODAY AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRIER AIR/NVA WILL CONTINUE THE CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN AND PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THEREFORE THINK THE CHANCE OF PRECIP IS QUITE LOW AND MAINLY INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE JUST HAVE SLGT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN/OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EACH WAVE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AND BECOME ABOVE NORMAL AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS LOW...BUT A HIGHER EXPECTATION OF LOWER MVFR CIGS WITH THE LINGERING LL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS. ONCE DECENT MIXING OCCURS...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DOES TAKE A WHILE (AFTER 00Z MOST LOCATIONS)...WITH MO CLR AFTER ABOUT 02Z AND WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. FOR FRIDAY...BACKDOOR COLDE FRONT TO APPROACH AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING PRECIPITATION. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JDR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.