Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242015 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 415 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Several rounds of upper level energy will work across the Ohio Valley tonight into Thursday. This energy combined with a warm and moist airmass will bring the chance for thunderstorms. High pressure will bring drier conditions for Friday and Saturday, before precipitation chances return for Sunday and into the new week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Storms moving across Indiana will track into the northwest portion of the forecast area late this afternoon. We are finally seeing some southward development into southern Indiana per the high-res models. Went with the likely pops in the northwest corner of the fa, tapering down to chance and slight chance the further south and east. Expect convection to weaken and become isolated in nature as the night progresses. Temperatures tonight will remain very warm with lows in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... On Thursday, another H5 S/W will work across nrn IN into nw OH along the nrn edge of the upper ridge. In the meantime a cdfnt will be dropping southeast towards the region from the wrn lakes. The best chance of convection will be across that nrn IN into nw OH during the aftn, but there will be a chance that the storms could develop into the nrn portions of the fa. It looks like Thursday will be a hot and humid day with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the north to the lower 90s along the Ohio River. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, the heat index will reach 95 to 100 degrees, so added a mention to the HWO. Convergence along the front becomes diffuse quickly Thursday night, so pcpn chances come to an end quickly. Low temperatures Thursday night will be slightly lower, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will bring a slightly drier air mass for Friday and Friday night. Continued with the dry forecast. Highs on from will be in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will exit the region Saturday and surface easterly flow will turn southerly. Cloud cover from convection in the midwest spill into the Ohio Valley. A surface boundary is expected to lay out over the region early Sunday as high pressure builds in the Upper Midwest. This should just provide a modest increase in diurnal thunderstorm activity chances Sunday with a little more increase on Monday, both with subsequent nighttime drops in these chances. Northeast flow on Monday into Tuesday night is expected as the high traverses the Great Lakes region. Another repeat of increased chances of afternoon thunderstorms is expected Tuesday and Wednesday given what will become a nebulous surface pattern. While all of the potential precipitation may not contain thunder, have not tried to minimize the morning and evening chances by calling them showers, even though this may be how the pattern materializes. Just peppered any precip chances in the extended as thunderstorms. With a large and slow moving high in the upper atmosphere centered from the Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and with mainly warm advection in the lower levels, a return to mid-summer heat is indicated. High temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s will couple with dew points near 70 to make increasingly uncomfortable air to the region. Some lower 80s temperatures may be expected in areas where precip develops and skies remain cloudy all day. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Storms moving across Indiana will continue east into the area this afternoon. Expect this to impact KDAY. But there is some uncertainty whether additional storms will build further into the Cincinnati area. Also expect convection to weaken heading into the evening which puts the potential for storms in Columbus a bit more uncertain. So have continued with a three hour window of VCTS at terminals other than KDAY. There is some possibility that storms could happen a bit later than timing in TAFs. Once storms pass expect VFR to continue. Cannot completely rule out some mist/fog at KLUK. But at this time probability seems low. Few to scattered cumulus will occur late in the TAF period with winds veering to the southwest. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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