Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 250129
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
929 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
Several rounds of upper level energy will work across the Ohio
Valley tonight into Thursday. This energy combined with a warm and
moist airmass will bring the chance for thunderstorms. High
pressure will bring drier conditions for Friday and Saturday,
before precipitation chances return for Sunday and into the new
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Tornado watch has been allowed to expire. Due to bug, it might
appear to some software might that it is still up because the
Indianapolis office extended the watch for a couple more hours.
Kept high pops in the nw with the line of convection moving thru.
Chance of severe weather should be lowering as the boundary layer
sets up making it hard for any winds to reach the ground. Pcpn
chances will continue to fade as the night progresses.
Temperatures tonight will remain very warm with lows in the lower
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday, another H5 S/W will work across nrn IN into nw OH
along the nrn edge of the upper ridge. In the meantime a cdfnt
will be dropping southeast towards the region from the wrn lakes.
The best chance of convection will be across that nrn IN into nw
OH during the aftn, but there will be a chance that the storms
could develop into the nrn portions of the fa. It looks like
Thursday will be a hot and humid day with highs ranging from the
upper 80s in the north to the lower 90s along the Ohio River. With
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, the heat index will reach 95 to
100 degrees, so added a mention to the HWO.
Convergence along the front becomes diffuse quickly Thursday
night, so pcpn chances come to an end quickly. Low temperatures
Thursday night will be slightly lower, ranging from the upper 60s
to lower 70s.
High pressure will bring a slightly drier air mass for Friday and
Friday night. Continued with the dry forecast. Highs on from will
be in the 80s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will exit the region Saturday and surface easterly
flow will turn southerly. Cloud cover from convection in the midwest
spill into the Ohio Valley. A surface boundary is expected to lay
out over the region early Sunday as high pressure builds in the
Upper Midwest. This should just provide a modest increase in diurnal
thunderstorm activity chances Sunday with a little more increase on
Monday, both with subsequent nighttime drops in these chances.
Northeast flow on Monday into Tuesday night is expected as the high
traverses the Great Lakes region. Another repeat of increased
chances of afternoon thunderstorms is expected Tuesday and Wednesday
given what will become a nebulous surface pattern.
While all of the potential precipitation may not contain thunder,
have not tried to minimize the morning and evening chances by
calling them showers, even though this may be how the pattern
materializes. Just peppered any precip chances in the extended as
With a large and slow moving high in the upper atmosphere centered
from the Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and with
mainly warm advection in the lower levels, a return to mid-summer
heat is indicated. High temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the
low 90s will couple with dew points near 70 to make increasingly
uncomfortable air to the region. Some lower 80s temperatures may be
expected in areas where precip develops and skies remain cloudy all
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thunderstorms over Indiana have been slow to make it into west-
central Ohio this evening. At 23Z, there are still a couple of
thunderstorms across southeast Indiana that may affect the
KCVG/KLUK terminals through about 02Z. We are also watching a line
of convection over central Indiana that HRRR suggests moves east
over the next several hours, likely in a weaker state by the time
it could affect KDAY. Line could even make it to KCMH late this
evening, but confidence is on the low side and only have VCTS in
TAFs attm. Convection should move east/dissipate after midnight,
leaving prevailing VFR conditions. Can`t rule out a late night
visibility restriction due to fog at KLUK, but there will likely
be plenty of lingering clouds and with very low confidence have
left out of TAF.
Latest guidance suggests much of the convection on Thursday
occurring over northern Ohio. As such, have kept mention of
thunderstorms out of the TAFs.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening.