Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221609 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1109 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO 16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR. CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN AGAIN, && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES HAVE BECOME FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL OH WHERE THE WARM AIR HAS LAGGED AND NOT BLOWN OUT THE ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PLAIN RAIN AFTER ABOUT 14Z...MAYBE EARLIER. CIGS RIGHT AT THE MVFR 3KFT CUTOFF WILL BE FOUND AT KCMH/KLCK AND WHERE A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY HIT REMAINING TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF 6-8KFT CLOUD DECK THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AND A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER MVFR STRATUS WORKS IN RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS

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