Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211731 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 131 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 15 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS NUMBERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH DRY. 00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL VFR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. BY THAT TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...SO AM KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER SUNRISE...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE LATE MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...LATTO

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