Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251828 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 228 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large and deep area of low pressure over the region will move east and away this afternoon. A ridge will set up in its wake for tonight. Multiple systems will then work across the area from Friday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area today will gradually begin to taper off by the end of the near term. Temperatures will struggle to rise today with cloud cover and precipitation. With the upper low nearby cannot rule out an isolated cold air funnel later this afternoon into this evening, however the probability is low at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Rain will end early this evening in the Scioto Valley and areas north of Dayton and east of I-75. After about midnight, little if any rain will be found in the CWA and partial clearing will occur, especially south of the I-70 corridor and in Kentucky. Overnight lows will drop to the low and mid 50s, and the clearing to the south should not factor into the min temps dropping off any more in this location. Later on Friday, the ridging that was in place overnight tonight will see a shortwave and associated vort maxima undercut it, sparking some showers - potentially thunderstorms. Models diverge significantly with this feature and subsequent chances of rain in the region through the holiday weekend. Timing these storms late Friday is not possible given the fluid nature of the upper level pattern. Large model spreads in the evolution of the sensible weather patterns for the weekend equate to a low confidence forecast, with higher probability of rain occurring. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level low will slowly drop down across the northern Great Lakes through early next week. As it does, some weak energy will rotate around it, bringing some lower chances of precipitation through the rest of the long term period. Temperatures will also cool off a bit with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Area of low pressure will move off to the east this evening and precipitation will gradually taper off. IFR and MVFR cigs will gradually improve by the end of the TAF period. If there are some breaks in the clouds overnight then fog will also be a concern. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a chance of thunderstorms possible Friday night into Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks/JGL AVIATION...Sites

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