Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 270143
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
943 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
A low pressure system pushing across across northern Ohio will
bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday
morning. High pressure and dry weather to return for Thursday
night and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Not many changes to current forecast and have only made slight
timing adjustments to PoPs. Overall trend of the showers
weakening as they move east has continued with the latest high res
models (time lagged HRRR, RAP, NMM, and ARW). This makes sense
given the slow progression and weakening of the shortwave. Surface
low pressure will then slide north and east of the area with a
surface cold front pushing through the area Thursday morning. New
zones already out.
The best isentropic lift has lifted north of the area, with the
warm frontal boundary currently lifting north through the forecast
area. The prefrontal cold front precipitation over NW Indiana
pushing east more slowly than previously forecast and generally a
bit slower than mesoscale models. Have generally kept with the
more likely precipitation in the far north closer to the shortwave
itself, with an expectation that the trailing precipitation in the
south will meet with lesser instability over the area as it pushes
through after 04-06z. Band should remain narrowly focused, with
some embedded thunderstorms.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With the frontal system exiting the area during the day on
Thursday, lingering showers will mainly affect eastern half of
forecast area, through slight chances to in the west lingering
through about 18z. Have increased cloud cover behind the frontal
system, as forecast model soundings do linger a shallow band of
low level moisture.
High pressure to push in Thursday night with partial clearing.
While area will be under cold air advection, lingering clouds will
still keep relatively mild overnight lows. The CAA will be short
lived as return flow ahead of the next approaching system on
Friday will bring a return to upper 60 highs in the south.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will pick up during the day on Saturday in advance of a
frontal boundary. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible
during the day. These winds will bring warmer air into the region.
Temperatures will be well above normal on Saturday.
Precipitation will hold off for much of the day with showers moving
into northern portions of the forecast area late in the day on
Saturday. The cold front will work through Saturday evening into
Saturday night before stalling out near the Ohio River. The front
will remain in the vicinity on Sunday keeping precipitation chances
across the region. Precipitation will taper off Sunday evening.
There are some model differences for the Saturday night through
Sunday night timeframe. At this time the ECMWF appears to be more
of the outlier, however due to the typical strong performance of the
ECMWF did not completely discount this solution.
High pressure will work into the area late Sunday night. Southerly
flow returns for Monday and Tuesday with continued above normal
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Shower activity that is currently approaching from the west is
forecasted to slowly weaken as it approaches the terminals. This
makes sense as the shortwave is forecasted to lose cohesion as it
pushes east. High res models are in general agreement with this
showing only a weak band pushing through the TAF sites just ahead
of the front. Instability will also be very weak to almost non-
existent with the frontal passage so have kept with the current
forecast and have left thunder out of the TAFs. The cold front
will pass through the KDAY, KCVG, and KLUK terminals after sunrise
and then push through KILN, KCMH, KLCK late morning.
Just ahead of the front Thursday morning a strong 40-50 kt LLJ
will push east into the region. This will be on the border of LLWS
criteria and have not mentioned at this time. Behind the front
CIGS will fall into the IFR/ MVFR category. Most high res guidance
are indicating the best chance of IFR confined to KDAY with the
rest of the terminals remaining MVFR. Looking at GFS and NAM
forecast soundings this makes sense. During the day Thursday CIGS
will slowly rise through the day and eventually turn VFR.
Thursday evening, behind the cold front, surface high pressure
will slowly drift overhead allowing some gusty winds to decouple
as the pressure gradient weakens.
OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible Monday.