Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230205 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1005 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH LESS EXPECTATION OF CLEARING...AND WITH SOME FINGERS OF CLEARING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL OHIO OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS. CONCERN IS STILL THE SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT THE 925 LAYER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER ESPECIALLY EAST OF I75 TO NOT CLEAR UNTIL VERY LATE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RESULTING TEMPERATURES AT THE NEXT UPDATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER PERIODS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FA. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY. HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079. KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JDR

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