Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270143 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 943 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system pushing across across northern Ohio will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure and dry weather to return for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Not many changes to current forecast and have only made slight timing adjustments to PoPs. Overall trend of the showers weakening as they move east has continued with the latest high res models (time lagged HRRR, RAP, NMM, and ARW). This makes sense given the slow progression and weakening of the shortwave. Surface low pressure will then slide north and east of the area with a surface cold front pushing through the area Thursday morning. New zones already out. Prev Discussion-> The best isentropic lift has lifted north of the area, with the warm frontal boundary currently lifting north through the forecast area. The prefrontal cold front precipitation over NW Indiana pushing east more slowly than previously forecast and generally a bit slower than mesoscale models. Have generally kept with the more likely precipitation in the far north closer to the shortwave itself, with an expectation that the trailing precipitation in the south will meet with lesser instability over the area as it pushes through after 04-06z. Band should remain narrowly focused, with some embedded thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... With the frontal system exiting the area during the day on Thursday, lingering showers will mainly affect eastern half of forecast area, through slight chances to in the west lingering through about 18z. Have increased cloud cover behind the frontal system, as forecast model soundings do linger a shallow band of low level moisture. High pressure to push in Thursday night with partial clearing. While area will be under cold air advection, lingering clouds will still keep relatively mild overnight lows. The CAA will be short lived as return flow ahead of the next approaching system on Friday will bring a return to upper 60 highs in the south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Winds will pick up during the day on Saturday in advance of a frontal boundary. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible during the day. These winds will bring warmer air into the region. Temperatures will be well above normal on Saturday. Precipitation will hold off for much of the day with showers moving into northern portions of the forecast area late in the day on Saturday. The cold front will work through Saturday evening into Saturday night before stalling out near the Ohio River. The front will remain in the vicinity on Sunday keeping precipitation chances across the region. Precipitation will taper off Sunday evening. There are some model differences for the Saturday night through Sunday night timeframe. At this time the ECMWF appears to be more of the outlier, however due to the typical strong performance of the ECMWF did not completely discount this solution. High pressure will work into the area late Sunday night. Southerly flow returns for Monday and Tuesday with continued above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Shower activity that is currently approaching from the west is forecasted to slowly weaken as it approaches the terminals. This makes sense as the shortwave is forecasted to lose cohesion as it pushes east. High res models are in general agreement with this showing only a weak band pushing through the TAF sites just ahead of the front. Instability will also be very weak to almost non- existent with the frontal passage so have kept with the current forecast and have left thunder out of the TAFs. The cold front will pass through the KDAY, KCVG, and KLUK terminals after sunrise and then push through KILN, KCMH, KLCK late morning. Just ahead of the front Thursday morning a strong 40-50 kt LLJ will push east into the region. This will be on the border of LLWS criteria and have not mentioned at this time. Behind the front CIGS will fall into the IFR/ MVFR category. Most high res guidance are indicating the best chance of IFR confined to KDAY with the rest of the terminals remaining MVFR. Looking at GFS and NAM forecast soundings this makes sense. During the day Thursday CIGS will slowly rise through the day and eventually turn VFR. Thursday evening, behind the cold front, surface high pressure will slowly drift overhead allowing some gusty winds to decouple as the pressure gradient weakens. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/Haines NEAR TERM...JDR/Haines SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.