Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
311 FXUS61 KILN 021950 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 350 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING LATER TONIGHT. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATER TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END AS THE MAIN BODY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH UP AROUND 50 SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S. SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN LIFTING...AND SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...AND IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND THUS SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...DROPPING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 2000 FEET. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ON TUESDAY...BUT PERHAPS NOT VERY QUICKLY...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...SWITCHING FROM WESTERLY / NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO NORTHERLY / NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.