Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270205 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1005 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and a cold front will approach the region on Thursday and push through Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing showers with embedded thunderstorms. High pressure will gradually build in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Increasing clouds and moisture overnight with the approach of vigorous shortwave interacting with a warm front over the upper MS Valley and into the western Ohio Valley. Southerly flow will allow for rising Precipitable Water values into the western forecast area, with leading edge of showers and thunderstorms currently over Illinois reaching the western forecast area by daybreak. Lows tonight will be warmer than last night, especially in western locations where low 70s are expected, with mid 60s in the east on the back side of the departing high. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For Thursday, Decent ll shear but not a lot of support from an instability standpoint, along with plenty of cloud cover and relatively unimpressive lapse rates. So while the lingering lower level support and some of the CAMS indicating surface low tracking right along Ohio river, can`t rule out the potential for isolated severe storms with damaging winds, not as much of a concern or confidence as previous forecast. However, ample moisture and several hours of high precipitation potential with PW values approaching max for this time of year still yield a heavy rain potential. Concern is especially in the south with areas more vulnerable due to recent flash flooding. Ample cloud cover and precipitation will limit highs on Thursday so continued to lean on the cooler side of guidance. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Shortwave trof to drop southeast through the Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley Friday. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures around 5 degrees below normal with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to near 80. Highly amplified mid/upper level flow pattern with ridge over the west and trof over the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow pattern this weekend. Surface high pressure of Canadian origin will build southeast across the Great. This high will offer dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s. As the surface high slide off to the east dry conditions will persist into next week and temperatures will moderate. Expect readings closer to seasonal normals through mid week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Conditions will stay VFR to start with high pressure departing to the east. Thunderstorms developing near a warm front will begin to affect CVG and LUK around 06z, with the threat reaching all sites by 10z. Widespread showers are forecast at all sites by 14z as as low pressure arrives from the west, and thunderstorms in the vicinity are expected. Went with MVFR ceilings toward the end of the forecast as the boundary layer becomes saturated, while showers linger. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...Coniglio/JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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