Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272016 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 416 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure off the east coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Convection across the fa remains fairly capped as some drier mid level air has worked into the region. An isolated shower did pop up in Scioto County, so isolated convection is possible late this afternoon. As for the the rest of the night. Several of the models, especially the convective allowing models are showing the the orographic convection in WV and ern KY drifting n this evening and possibly affecting the se portions of the fa. Carried a 20 PoP between 00-06Z to cover this possibility. As for the rest of the fa, went dry this evening as the best lift remains w of the fa. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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On Saturday, the H5 ridge over the ern U.S. continues to protect the region a little. The best lift will remain out over the plains and MS valley in the vicinity of the H5 trof/low. Lowered PoPs for tomorrow down to 30 percent as the lift looks disorganized, but some weak vorticity lifting ewd should help pop some convection. Convection should die down again Saturday Night. By Sunday, some moisture and energy from subtropical low that came onshore in the Carolina`s will affect the region. This will interact with the ejecting H5 s/w in the upper MS valley, to kick off some more scattered thunderstorms. Still kept PoPs in the 30 percent range however. Temperatures over the weekend will see highs in the lower to mid 80s. lows Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 60s again, before cooing to the lower to mid 60s Sunday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Dry weather appears to be in store for Monday when weak surface high pressure is forecast to develop under a flattened upper ridge. The dry conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday as the surface high travels slowly eastward on a weak westerly flow aloft. Look for a transition to a more unsettled period starting Wednesday when the upper flow backs to southwest, carrying a plume of moisture to the Ohio Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Went with lower chances for thunderstorms Wednesday, increasing on Thursday when the cold front and associated convergence and lift may be crossing the region from the west. A few thunderstorms may linger into Friday in decreasing moisture and forcing behind the front. Temperatures are forecast to stay about 5 to 10 degrees above normal Monday through Thursday in the persistent southerly flow between surface high pressure and the cold front. Readings may slide a few degrees Friday in weak cold advection behind the front, with highs still close to 80.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level ridging will continue to extend from the mid Atlantic coast into the upper Ohio valley through Saturday. Our terminals will be in a lull this afternoon and tonight in terms of the threat for showers/storms, with an isolated possibility existing southeast of the terminals late this afternoon into this evening. Diurnal cumulus should give way to some mid and high clouds overnight. Some river fog is expected again at KLUK and have placed a TEMPO 1/2 mile between 08Z and 12Z. On Saturday, low to mid level flow will continue from the south. There still looks to be a lack of any strong forcing. Thus, some scattered showers/storms could still develop in the heat of the day, perhaps aided by any weak disturbance rippling through the flow. Have added a VCSH at the 30 hour KCVG terminal to account for this. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman

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