Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 112000 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST. CIRRUS SPILLING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE...GIVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THOUGH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE ILN CWA...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY. WITH A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY TO THE OHIO RIVER. CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFT FORMATION...AND A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE AND SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS CELLS AND LINES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED AT A SHALLOW ANGLE BY THE UPPER FLOW...RESULTING IN SLOW MOVEMENT. IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY AT SITES THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING THUNDERSTORM CELLS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DAYTON IS 70...CINCINNATI 72...AND COLUMBUS 72. THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR THE DATE FOR DAYTON IS 72 IN 1918 AND 1940...FOR CINCINNATI IT IS 72 IN 1892...AND FOR COLUMBUS IT IS 70 IN 1892. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MVFR BR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE FAVORED SOUTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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