Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 141822
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
122 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017
Precipitation will expand across the region this morning. With
temperatures near or below freezing, periods of light freezing
rain will be possible through the morning. Building high pressure
will push the precipitation to the south of the region this
afternoon and tonight, before it lifts north again on Sunday and
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor adjustments made to forecast this morning as shortwave
approaches the forecast area from the west. Did have a brief break
in the precipitation this morning but broad shield of
precipitation has started to push into the region this morning
from the approaching shortwave.
Surface temperatures also remain around freezing this morning
across the south to just below freezing across the north. Am
expecting a slow warm up in temperatures but given ongoing
precipitation, clouds, and dewpoint depressions five plus across
the northeast have lowered high temperatures by a degree or two.
Not expecting much ice this morning as temperatures are marginal
in most places with road temperatures above freezing everywhere
south of Interstate 70. Still though... light freezing rain will
continue through the morning so will keep advisory as is.
Prev Discussion ->
Weak sfc wave to track through the srn Ohio Valley in response to
sheared out shortwave moving through the zonal flow. Favorable
isentropic lift to expand north this morning and then pivot east
by afternoon. Observations and model trends continue to show
temperatures above freezing in far south, where all rain will be
observed. Expect any ice to be minor (less than a tenth of an
inch) but will continue current advisory thru 1 pm and add the
far northern counties to the the headline.
Expect improvement this afternoon when temperatures warm up and
pcpn begins to taper off from the NW.
Cloud cover and low level winds shifting from the east to the
northwest will keep temperatures from rising much today. Expect
highs from the mid 30s nw to the lower 40s se.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Numerical models solns generally similar in establishing strong
surface high pressure over the Great Lakes tonight which should
allow for a temporary end to the precipitation. Some partial
clearing possible across the far north, otherwise expect clouds to
hang on overnight. Lows to range from the mid 20s north to the lower
Expect a return of rain, mainly over the south Sunday afternoon
associated with the warm front located to our south. Model solns
differ on how far north pcpn makes it durg the day. Have limited
pops to chance category. Highs on Sunday to range from the mid 30s
nw to the lower 40s se.
Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley Monday night. In warm sector have
limited pops to slight chance/chance pops durg most of the day with
an enhanced threat for pcpn developing Monday night with the
approach of a frontal boundary. Highs on Monday to be very mild,
ranging from the mid/upper 40s north to the upper 50s south.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front lifting northward through the Ohio Valley early on
Monday is getting less and less coverage looking at the QPF fields.
This appears due to the h5 ridge in place that would limit any
upward motion in the region. GFS has an elongated vort maxima that
cuts through a significantly weaker h5 ridge and this was in line
with the previous several days forecast. Was hesitant to lower the
chances of rain in this period to nothing as a low chance seemed
the better forecast. If precip is here at this time, early Monday
would see temps below freezing along and north of the I-70 corridor
for a few hours until temps quickly rise above 32 deg.
As the upper ridge moves east overnight, rain will overspread the
region from the west. Some of this may be heavy at times as the
surface low tracking to the Great Lakes region is strengthening and
the low level jet brings in a good moisture plume from the Gulf.
Models begin to diverge on Tuesday as the GFS brings a cutoff low
tracking south into the midwest and then east through the region.
Canadian and European models are much less robust with the h5 low
and keep a more open wave as it crosses further north. This is the
warmer and wetter solution which has better continuity from previous
forecasts when extrapolating further into Tuesday night and
On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley
and any rain will end from west to east during the day. GFS was dry
for early Wednesday whereas European and Canadian hold the surface
front and weak low pressure center over nrn KY early on Wednesday
before exiting east.
Kept Thursday dry and hedged towards a chance of showers on Friday
but feel that any system this far out would only impact areas south
of the CWA.
Continued to keep to the warm side of guidance for the extended
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Precipitation continues to move across the terminals this
afternoon with mostly LIFR conditions. Further north towards CMH/
LCK precipitation has remained mostly south of the area. Another
band of precipitation is currently moving across central Indiana
and will likely impact these northern terminals though. Given
current temperature profiles across the northern TAF sites frozen
precipitation looks likely.
This evening precipitation will slowly come to an end as surface
high pressure approaches from the northwest. Latest NAM soundings
show moisture locked in across the terminals with LIFR CIGs prevailing
until daybreak Sunday morning. The GFS on the other hand pushes
all terminals VFR by 6z Sunday morning. Overall high res guidance
indicates a slow recovery in CIGs overnight and have made TAFs reflect
this. High res guidance is also indicating the potential for fog
development mostly northwest of the TAF sites. This is in part due
to some clearing skies and calm winds from approaching high
pressure. As of current looks like TAF sites will remain just
cloudy enough to hold off fog development. During the day Sunday
surface high pressure will skirt north and east of the area
allowing winds to quickly veer east. VFR expected during the day
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at
times Sunday night through Wednesday.
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-- Changed Discussion --OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
IN...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
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