Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 230506 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 106 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL EARLY THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HI BUILDING IN TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOR COOLEST NIGHT THIS SEASON AND SINCE THE MIDDLE OF MAY. STAYED CLOSE TO PREV FCST WITH WIDESPREAD 40 TO 45 RANGE AND UPPER 30S LIKELY IN THE COLDER POCKETS. SOME BRIEF LOCAL FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER COLDER N-NE COUNTIES. SO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO PRODUCT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AIR MASS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ATMOSPHERE WARMING OVER PERIOD AND EXPECT A GOOD RECOVERY FROM COOL MORNING LOWS. WILL LIKELY SEE BIG DIURNAL RANGE. HAVE GONE NEAR GUIDANCE BUT A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A S/W DIGGING UNDERNEATH THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE INTO LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ERRED ON THE WARM SIDE OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND THE COOL SIDE OF NIGHTTIME LOWS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. THIS STILL PUTS TEMPS ABOUT 7-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGHS AND 4-6 DEG ABOVE ON LOWS. GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAD A 2-4 DEG RANGE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND THE FCST TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLUK (IFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING AND MINOR MVFR VSBYS AT KILN/KLCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PADGETT NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...PADGETT LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...HICKMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.