Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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581 FXUS61 KILN 221411 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 911 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Behind a cold front, high pressure will begin to move into the Ohio Valley today, bringing cool and dry conditions. Dry weather will continue through the end of the week, as temperatures slowly increase as the high moves off to the east. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Stratocumulus continues to push south across the forecast area, although the western edge is near the Indiana/Ohio border and there are some thin spots. Near term guidance continues to show that the low level moisture will be decreasing within the few hours. Thus still expect decreasing cloudiness this afternoon. Made some slight adjustments to temperatures based on extra clouds this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... By this evening, as surface high pressure moves into the region, the gradient will relax and skies are expected to clear. There is a weak wave in the flow aloft that will move into the region by Thursday, actually leading to some warm advection at and above 850mb. This will also lead to an increase in mid-level clouds as a result (mainly 700mb and above) especially across the northern sections of the forecast area. Aside from these clouds, and a gradual switch to southwesterly flow on Thursday, there is little to discuss for the rest of the short term forecast period. The clear skies and light winds should allow for min temps to drop into the middle 20s on Thursday morning, followed by a slight increase in max temps on Thursday as opposed to Wednesday -- values in the lower to middle 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain across the Ohio Valley Thursday night, and will then move east on Friday. Little cloud cover is expected through this period. The surface pressure gradient will tighten some on Friday between the departing high and the approach of cold front to our west. After a cold start in the mid and upper 20s, sunshine and WAA should boost temperatures into the lower and mid 50s. For Friday night and Saturday, mid level trough will dig south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As this occurs, a cold front will move east through the region late Friday night and Saturday morning. The front is moisture starved, and mainly clouds are expected with frontal passage. Have held on to a slight chance of showers across northern zones where there may be enough forcing/saturation for this to occur. Otherwise, after a fairly mild start in the lower 40s, highs on Saturday will only be slightly cooler than Fridays highs due to weak CAA and considerable sunshine. Temperatures should range from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s elsewhere. Some of the operational models, such as the CMC and the ECMWF, have trended a little quicker with aforementioned mid level trough, and subsequently a more blunted CAA push with a secondary dry cold front Saturday night into Sunday. As a result, have not gone as cold for highs on Sunday (lower to mid 40s) with the now the prospect of skies being mostly sunny. Surface high pressure is now expected to build into the region Sunday night and then move east on Monday. Given that the CAA from Sunday will be more blunted/muted, we are now expecting a faster return flow/WAA pattern on Monday. So after a cold start in the mid and upper 20s, highs will boost into the mid 40s north to near 50 south on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday is expected to by dry as a mid level ridge traverses east through the region. Stronger WAA and a tightening pressure gradient/southerly flow by Tuesday will warm temperatures into the mid and upper 50s. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Stratocumulus will keep a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings across the region for the next few hours. Clouds are forecast to decrease in coverage by 18Z. Winds out of the NNW will be at around 10 knots this afternoon, before diminishing and becoming near zero tonight. Some additional mid-level clouds will move in during the overnight hours. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...

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