


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --320 FXUS61 KILN 101035 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 635 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day through this weekend, particularly in the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures will be near to above normal for the week. Dry conditions may briefly return next Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --With some breaks in the cloud cover developing, do expect that some areas of fog will develop, particularly stretching from EC/SE IN through far N KY and SW OH as well as the lower Scioto Valley. There remain some uncertainties in just how dense/widespread this fog may become, owing to persistence of some Cu in the area. Nevertheless, an SPS has been issued through 830 AM as some observation sites and cameras show that patchy dense fog has developed in a few spots early this morning. After the fog burns off by 13z, some diurnally-driven Cu will sprout again through late morning into early afternoon. Coverage of afternoon SHRA/TSRA should be a bit more ISO/spotty today than was the case Wednesday, owing to a lack of notable forcing/lift or any LL boundary in the vicinity. However, dewpoints will generally remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, supporting development of a healthy Cu field by midday, with a few spotty SHRA likely, particularly near/E of I-71 and near I-70 into central and south-central OH. Cell motions will be extremely slow/erratic, which may act to keep SHRA/TSRA over the same areas for an extended period of time, leading to a non-zero heavy rain/flood potential. This looks to be maximized in a general corridor from near Montgomery/Miami Counties through Hardin/Union/Delaware counties in Ohio by late afternoon. This being said, given the environment, spotty activity will be possible just about everywhere. Coverage and overall convective intensity will stay somewhat limited, so will mention just here for awareness purposes. A favorable DCAPE environment should also develop, suggesting at least a low-end potential for gusty winds with the strongest storms. But think this would be very isolated in nature, if it occurs at all. Highs today will top out in the mid 80s, very seasonable for this time of the year.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Any diurnally-driven activity will wane in coverage after sunset, eventually leading to dry conditions in general past midnight. Temps tonight dip into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with patchy fog once again possible, particularly in area river valleys. More of the same is on tap Friday with ISO diurnally-driven SHRA/TSRA expected. The best coverage of activity will be to the N of the ILN FA by the evening as a S/W pivots across the nrn OH Vly and srn Great Lakes region late in the short term period. Temps will top out in the upper 80s amidst seasonable humidity. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak ridging builds in Friday night with any afternoon/evening thunderstorms fading into the overnight. Another shortwave exiting the central Plains will merge with a much larger/deeper trough dipping into the Great Lakes on Saturday. Warm southwesterly flow supports hot conditions Saturday afternoon with temperatures in the lower 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. The forcing with the trough arrives late in the day on Saturday, so while some showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the peak heating period, the highest coverage is expected across Indiana. This activity may drift eastward into eastern Indiana/western Ohio throughout the late evening and into the overnight. With above normal moisture in the region, locally heavy rainfall is a possible across that same area. For Sunday, the trough and associated cold front move into the area providing another round of thunderstorms. This time, the highest chances are expected along and southeast of I-71 corridor (central & southern Ohio and northern Kentucky). This would be the best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms along with locally heavy rainfall. Behind the trough, confidence is increasing that Monday and Tuesday may be a bit of a lull in the heavier thunderstorm activity. Temperatures are still warm and some moisture remains, so some low PoP chances remain in the forecast for now. To wrap up the long term, a ridge is expected to develop over the southeast US and Gulf Coast, with another set of shortwaves ejecting from the central Plains. This would favor the resurgence of moisture and better thunderstorm chances through mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --The ISO SHRA from earlier in the morning has since dissipated, with the main item of interest being the narrow corridor of LIFR/VLIFR CIGs and VSBYs that have developed from EC IN through south-central OH, including at KLUK/KILN. These VLIFR/LIFR conditions will rapidly improve at KLUK/KILN within the first hour of the TAF period. Expect FEW/SCT Cu will develop around 15z. Conditions return to VFR area-wide by 13z. It will be another day of afternoon/evening episodic thunderstorms, although coverage should remain ISO in nature. For now, have included PROB30s for SHRA, though the introduction of TSRA may be needed at some point, particularly at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. Light/VRB/calm winds early will go out of the WNW around 5kts by the afternoon. More BR/FG will be possible tonight, particularly at vulnerable sites of KLUK/KILN as SHRA and clouds wane in coverage past sunset. OUTLOOK... Daily episodic afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...KC