Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 031352 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 952 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY. A BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER OHIO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. SOME BETTER COVERAGE MAY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL RANGE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH TO CHANCE NORTH FOR LATER TODAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY EKE SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY AND MEANDER TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IF ONLY IN A SCATTERED OR ISOLATED NATURE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WILL LIMIT HIGHS FROM REACHING PAST 90 THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. A BIT OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK IN ON SUNDAY...AND THE THREAT FOR STORMS ON THIS DAY SEEMS A BIT MORE DIMINISHED THAN THE OTHERS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED IN THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FA. THE GENERALLY MVFR FOG WITH POCKETS OF IFR FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A VCTS AT ALL TAFS...BUT LIMITED THE WINDOW IN THE SW TAFS. AFT 00Z...THE S/W CONTINUES TO SLIP SE ACROSS OH. CONVECTION COULD LINGER LONGER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SO KEPT A VCTS GOING ACROSS THE N. SOME AREAS OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...FRANKS/NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.