Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 030221 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1021 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR AHEAD OF AREA OF CONVECTION IN LOWER MICHIGAN HEADING INTO INDIANA/OHIO. BETTER DYNAMICS/INTERACTION WITH UPR JETS DOES REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AND LOCAL REGION IS MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM GETS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 07Z-12Z TIMEFRAME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHEARING OUT. SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.50" WITH CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 3000 TO 4500 J/KG. THE NAM AGAIN IS SHOWING HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND THINK TRUE VALUES WILL BE FAVORING MORE OF THE GFS. SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KTS AND LAPSE RATES LOOK DRY ADIABATIC UP TO 850 MB. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE SPC HAS PUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF THINGS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE JUST OUT OF PHASE ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OVER THE AREA WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST EAST OF THE CWA. A RRQ WILL ALSO SETUP OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE CATCHING ON TO SOME OF THIS. LATEST NCEP AND NSSL WRF SHOWS BEST CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. EVEN THE NAM WITH HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES OVER THE AREA FAVORS THE EASTERN AREA OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED ABOVE... SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE. BEST COVERAGE DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BRING AN END TO THE RAIN. PWATS ALSO FALL QUICKLY TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY TO HANG UP AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE STALLED OUT ALONG/NEAR THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE MID-WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY /WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION RIDING ALONG THE FRONT/ FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD A SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED QPF FURTHER SOUTH BUT LATEST 12Z RUN HAS TRENDED NORTH. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT FEEL THE NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA TO REFLECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. AM STARTING TO BECOME CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. AS WE GET CLOSER...WILL HAVE TO PINPOINT DETAILS INCLUDING TRACK/GREATEST TIMING IMPACT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND TRACK OF AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY MAY BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AND THE BRUNT OF A SHORTWAVE ALSO OCCURS TO OUR SOUTH. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ON FRIDAY. FAVORED DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE PULLING SE OF THE AREA...NOW CENTERED OVER WVA/VA WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN THIS GRADIENT...WINDS TO STAY ABOVE 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS NEAR/AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 15-22Z TIMEFRAME. CURRENT GREAT LAKES CONVECTION TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN TERMINAL LOCATIONS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LESS FAVORABLE...SHOULD BE SOME VCSH/VCTS IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WHERE THE DIMINISHING S/WV ENERGY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. A BIT OF A BREAK THEN POSSIBLE UNTIL TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE 17Z AND LATER TIMEFRAME WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FROPA IN ESPECIALLY KCMH/KLCK AND POSSIBLY KCVG/KLUK LOCATIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IN THUNDERSTORMS...AND WHERE THE SCATTERED STORMS OCCUR MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...JDR

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