Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150225 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1025 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push east across the region through the day on Sunday, leading to a chance of showers, isolated thunderstorms and breezy conditions. A drier and cooler airmass will then settle into the area through the first part of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Progressive mid level shortwave to eject northeast from the the northern plains across the Great Lakes Sunday. Surface low over the upper MS Vly to deepen as it tracks northeast across the Great Lakes Sunday. Associated Strong surface cold front to sweep east across ILN/s FA Sunday. Clouds will increase overnight in advance of this cold front. As the pressure gradient begins to tighten, southeast to south winds will begin to begin to pick up late tonight. Temperatures will from near 60 in the far east to the mid/upper 60s northwest. These readings will steady out late and possibly even slowly rise as clouds and winds increase.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid level short wave energy will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley through the day on Sunday. This will help push a cold front east across our area through early afternoon. Deeper moisture is somewhat limited and the models are in decent agreement that the instability will remain pretty marginal along and ahead of the front through the day. As a result, will continue to just go with likely showers with a slight chance of some embedded thunderstorms along/just ahead of the front. The wind fields are fairly strong so if we are able to destabilize enough, suppose a very low end severe threat would not be out of the question across our far east. As the cold front moves through and we start to get into some CAA, expect to see some non diurnal temperatures, especially across the east where the highs should occur fairly early in the day. A tightening pressure gradient will also lead to breezy conditions through the day with wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range possible. A drier and cooler airmass will then filter into the area behind the front Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For Monday, a cold front pushed by an upper trough will be east of the area. An expansive area of high pressure following the front will stretch across most of the CONUS under a confluent zonal flow aloft. High pressure and a dry airmass are then forecast to remain over the region through the end of the long term. Current model projections suggest no precipitation in a regime of subsidence and low humidity, with rain chances close to zero through Saturday. Temperatures will be below normal to start due to cold advection on a northerly flow behind the front, with highs reaching the upper 50s on Monday. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night when lows will fall into the 30s under clear and calm conditions, especially in eastern locations. A gradual warming trend under increasing geopotential heights and a southerly low level flow will allow highs to reach the low to mid 70s by late next week, about 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The pressure gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect VFR conditions through the night with mid level CIGs developing by morning. Have low level wind shear developing late tonight into early Sunday with winds at 2k ft around 40 kts. As the front approaches scattered showers to spread in from the west through mid morning and then linger into early to mid afternoon. A very marginal ribbon of instability will exist invof the front. Therefore, isolated embedded thunderstorm will be possible, but the chance appears too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Expect a period of MVFR CIGs with the showers. As the pressure gradient continues to tighten up ahead the front, southwest winds will increase through the morning with gusts of 25 to 30 knots likely during the day on Sunday. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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