Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252148 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 448 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY STEADIER AT JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...A SLOWER TRANSITION OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN ESPECIALLY THE NW FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW ENE ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 SO ACCUMULATING SNOW BEGINNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...AND THEN NOT UNTIL NEAR 03Z-04Z FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW TOTALS IN THE EAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE SLOWER DEPARTURE AND ANTICIPATED LINGERING MOISTURE AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. WITH THIS VERY SLOW TRANSITION DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION PERIOD...WILL BE A VERY TIGHT N/S GRADIENT FROM 2" TO 4" FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED 5" TOTALS IN THE FAR NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNITES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS. LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY WEDNESDAY. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN (-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN METRO AREA. ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046- 051>055-060>064-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065- 073-074. KY...NONE. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS

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