Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 140552 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1252 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will continue to move east, further away from the area overnight. High pressure will then build into the area for Thursday. Another cold front will then cross the area Friday evening into Saturday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Strong wind gusts are continuing with a few locations remaining around advisory criteria. The winds will be gradually decreasing as low pressure moves further away from the area and the pressure gradient starts to relax. Radar shows a band of light echoes still passing across far northern counties, and those locations could still see a mix of very light snow or a mix of rain and snow for the next few hours. Temperatures are taking a bit longer to fall, so have bumped up readings, although cold air advection should still see them fall close to previous low temperature forecast by daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... During the day Thursday more cold air will filter into the region with 850 mb temperatures falling towards 10 degrees C below zero. High pressure will move in for the afternoon with the pressure gradient slowly relaxing. This working with clouds remaining across the region will keep high temperatures around or below freezing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface low pressure to track through the northern Great Lakes Friday. Best precipitation to stay to ILN/s north closer to the surface wave. Will carry low chance pop of snow showers north Friday/Friday night. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south. Upper level flow backs westerly with ridge building into the region. Southerly low level flow develops Saturday with temperatures warming to near normal. Expect highs Saturday to range from the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south. Mid level flow backs southwesterly with moisture spreading back into the area early next week. Model solutions differ on timing and strength. Due to model solution spread, confidence decreases. Will use a blended approach with chance pops spreading in Sunday. The p-type will change over to rain in the warm air advection and then mix with snow in the north prior to ending Monday. This pcpn event looks to be progressive with pcpn ending early Monday. Sundays temperatures to run a little above normal with highs from 40 to 45. Temperatures looks to continue a little above normal with Mondays highs ranging from the the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south. With a mid level trof across the Great Lakes and northwest flow over the area, will limit pops to low chance over the far north Tuesday. Based on thermal profiles, will allow for a mix of rain and snow. Surface high pressure to then offer dry weather at mid week. Temperatures close to normal next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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West winds gusting to around 30 kt at the beginning of the period will gradually start to decrease with gusts diminishing towards 12Z. Winds will continue to decrease to less than 10 kt and veer to the northwest with some locations becoming north. Winds will become light and variable late in the TAF period as high pressure builds in. Cincinnati terminals are starting out VFR, but expect MVFR ceilings to develop into that area early. Elsewhere MVFR ceilings will prevail. Ceilings will remain below 2000 ft for the Columbus terminals and will likely lower to that at KDAY. Those locations should lift back above 2000 ft after 12Z. Area wide, MVFR ceilings will persist into midday and likely into the afternoon before eroding. Once this occurs, VFR conditions will remain through the end of the TAF period with just mid to high clouds. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Sunday into Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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