Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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948 FXUS61 KILN 201051 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 651 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep a warm and dry southerly flow over the region today through Sunday. A cold front and wave of low pressure will bring showers Sunday night and Monday. Much cooler temperatures and lingering showers are forecast for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the Southern Appalachians today. This will allow the dry circulation around the high to persist across the Ohio Valley, keeping sunny skies over the region. Temperatures will be boosted above normal by insolation and warm advection, with highs reaching the mid 70s, compared to the normal low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Surface high will lift northeast to the mid Atlantic Coast in response to a developing upper trough over the Western CONUS. Expect increasing high clouds leading to filtered sunshine on Saturday. Continued warm advection will result in high temperatures in the mid and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry and mild weather to continue Saturday night into Sunday. On the warm side of the system, highs on Sunday will be in the mid/upr 70s, or close to 15 degrees above normal. Weather pattern change to take place with mid level ridge shifting east and long wave trof settling into the northern Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Model solutions continue to trend slower with the onset of precipitation. Have held off pcpn until late Sunday night. Model solution differ on timing of long wave trof and therefore the track of southern cutoff mid level low. GFS keeps the low further south and east, while the ECMWF continues to bring the low further northwest, with the surface low tracking through Ohio Monday. The placement of the surface low will affect the rainfall placement and amounts. Will ramp pops up to likely Monday with the highest pops over the east. Based on clouds and pcpn, have lowered temperatures Monday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Long wave mid/upr level trof to settle into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Tue/Wed. This will keep a chance of a shower in the forecast with the highest pops north. Highs Tuesday are expected to be a little below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with highs in the lower/middle 50s. Frost will be possible Wednesday night with lows in the mid/upr 30s. As the mid level trof shift east east ridging will temporarily build into the region with a southerly low level flow developing. This will cause some moderation to temperatures with highs Thursday from the upper 50s to near 60. Flow quickly backs with a weak moisture starved front pushing into the region Friday. Will limit pops to low chance of shower Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FG has developed at LUK, and it will probably form there again late in the forecast. BR may also affect ILN and LCK for brief periods. Otherwise conditions will remain VFR under high pressure and dry air. Sky cover will be limited to cirrus, possibly increasing in coverage toward the end of the forecast. Winds will stay under 7 knots, with direction generally from the south. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night into Monday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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