Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191141 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 641 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN AXIS OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. AND BASED ON RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE OVERCAST DECK WILL HOLD FIRM. IT APPEARS THAT THIS DECK WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR. KCVG AND KLUK ARE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS AND MAY GO VFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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