Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301803 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 203 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERHEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME CU POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION ON VIS SATELLITE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND ANY CU WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONCE DIURNAL HEATING CEASES. NOT A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR BR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OWING TO DRY LOW LEVELS...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT A FEW TERMINALS TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR MORE CU IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...KURZ SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...KURZ

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