Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 180307
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1007 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017
An upper level system will track east across the Tennessee
Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Otherwise, high pressure
will predominate into early next week resulting in much above
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --To the south of a warm front situated just to the north of Ohio
this evening, southerly flow will be in place across the CWA
through the night. Infrared satellite imagery indicates a few
cirrus, but the balance of the night will be clear. With southerly
flow, temperatures likely only drop into the lower to mid 40s
overnight. Those values will be around where the normal high
temperature should be this time of the year.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Upper low will weaken as it tracks east across the Tennessee
Valley into the central Appalachians Saturday through Saturday
night. This will spread clouds across much of the forecast area
and thus will keep temperatures during the day a few degrees
lower than today. Showers associated with this may also spread
into the southern third of the forecast area. It still looks
like low chance PoPs are sufficient. Plenty of low level
moisture will be left in the wake of the system, so expect
clouds to linger through Saturday night. These clouds along with
no change in air mass will result in very mild lows, warmer
than normal highs for this time of year.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period begins with the region between systems. A filling H5 s/w trof
is pushing off to the east coast, while a H5 ridge is out over the
The H5 ridge will begin to build into the region on Sunday. At the
same time a sfc high pressure ridge will be across the Ohio Valley.
Lingering low level moisture early Sunday morning will gradually
decrease by afternoon. Highs on Sunday will warm, rising to the
lower to mid 60s. Although these will be about 20 degrees above
normal, records should be safe as they are in the 70s.
Dry weather will continue into Monday as the center of the H5 ridge
reaches the area. Monday will be warmer for the southern sections as
temperatures reach the upper 60s. This too should be below the daily
record, as the record high at CVG on Monday is 72. Across the
extreme northern counties highs will linger in the lower 60s. Monday
night the H5 ridge axis slips into the Appalachians.
For Tuesday, a cold front will be pushing out of the upper MS Valley
into the Great Lakes. There is a little spread on the strength and
timing by the models. Northwest counties will have a better
chance at seeing showers Tuesday afternoon. Kept PoPs capped in
the Chance category this run.
The front pushes through the region Tuesday night. Went high Chance
PoPs across the fa along the front. Pcpn chances linger Wednesday
morning across the se, before drier air works in. Despite a frontal
passage in February, temperatures will remain well above normal,
ranging from 60 to 65.
A strong storm system will be developing in the Rockies late
Wednesday night into Thursday, leaving the region under a weakly
forced airmass. A few pop-up showers could be possible on Thursday.
Strong low pressure system will develop in the plains Thursday night
into Friday, pushing a strong cold front into the Lower Ohio Valley
by late Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
ahead of the advancing cdfnt.
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail though the TAF period.
Only a few high clouds are expected overnight, then mid clouds
will increase during the daytime Saturday as a weak system
passes to the south of the region. Can`t rule out a stray shower
at KCVG/KLUK, but confidence is too low for any inclusion in
the TAFs. Potential also exists for MVFR cigs to develop toward
the Cincinnati area beginning Saturday evening. Some guidance
suggests as early as 00Z, but believe mid to late evening is
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday night into Sunday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Sat 2/18 68(1948) 63(1948/1994/2011) 64(1948)
Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939)
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930)