Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 261804 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 104 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS ON TRACK. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNDER SCT CIRRUS. GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD BASED ON ADVECTING 5-6C PLUME ON 925MB SURFACE. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS TOWARD 20KTS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. H5 TROF TONIGHT...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE SFC LOW OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. 00Z MODELS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER PUSHING A SMALLER AREA OF QPF QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING A BETTER SHOT OF PCPN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CDFNT SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS TO LINGER PCPN A LITTLE LONGER...SO THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. HELD ONTO PCPN CHANCE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SE HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RETURN FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST SWLY WIND GUSTS /17KTS OR SO/ ACROSS THE TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR A BKN CIG TO SPREAD OVER THE SITES...LIKELY FROM 3KFT TO 4KFT FROM EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. TOWARD SUNRISE...SOME DRYING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF WILL LIKELY LIFT CIGS INTO THE 5-6KFT RANGE. APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER DISTURBANCE SAT AFTN WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS BY 18Z ESPECIALLY DAY/CVG/LUK/ILN...AND THESE WILL LIKELY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM TO CMH/LCK LATER SAT AFTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...BINAU

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.