Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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997 FXUS61 KILN 290538 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 138 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Saturday as a warm front lifts north across the Ohio Valley. A much warmer airmass will be in place across the area through the weekend. A cold front will bring another chance of precipitation Sunday night into Monday and usher in a cooler airmass for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms will move through overnight. Expanded the flash flood watch a tier of counties further north. Several inches of rainfall will be possible across a large area. Severe threat will continue as well this evening with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The boundary will continue to lift northward through the day on Saturday. As we get into the warm sector, southern portions of our fa will push well into the 80s with good instability developing as we head through the day. Pcpn chances will again be dependent on the placement and timing of the front, but given the instability, will allow for chance pops to slowly lift north across the area with the boundary through the day. As the front pushes off to our north, we should see a decreasing chance of pcpn across the north heading into Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Area will be in the warm sector on Sunday which will allow temperatures to be very warm with forecast highs just a few degrees below records. Cannot rule out a few storms drifting into western counties, although most activity will be west of the forecast area. Occluded front will sweep through the region Sunday night into Monday. Expect a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms to track across the area with this feature. Instability looks weak and precipitation will be progressive, so threats seems to be quite limited. Closed low will lift from the Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday before opening up and tracking east. Associated surface low will pass north of the area. But there will be a strong gradient south of the low. So expect gusty winds Monday into Tuesday. A few showers could pass across the area Monday. High pressure will briefly build in later Tuesday into Tuesday night. But the precipitation will already start to spread into southwest counties on Wednesday as a warm front develops south of the area. The front will become more pronounced until low pressure moves through the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Thursday night. So there will be a chance of showers during this time period. The chance of rain will then diminish on Friday. After the occluded front moves through, temperatures will be below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Slow moving front is the focus for thunderstorms that will continue to affect TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are likely to form with the thunderstorms during the first 12 hours of the forecast as the front moves north of the Ohio River. Improvement to VFR is expected during the afternoon as the front lifts to Northern Ohio carrying thunderstorms with it. Wind direction will vary with frontal movement, with east winds becoming south by the end of the forecast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are possible Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Sunday into Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ060>062- 070>072-077>081. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>099. IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ058-059- 066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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