Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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935 FXUS61 KILN 241043 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 643 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry pattern is expected today into Wednesday as high pressure builds from the northwest. A potent low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes will bring the likelihood for showers and maybe a thunderstorm Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cold front just entering the nrn counties attm will drop south to near the Ohio River by 12Z. Latest satellite loop is showing some low clouds trying to form along the front. So expect some clouds to affect the region early this morning, especially the eastern counties. After 12Z, additional clouds are forecast to swing down across the area as caa aloft works into the region. The better advection will be across Central Ohio so that is where the better cloud cover is expected. By afternoon as drier air begins to work in, clouds will begin to dissipate. Highs today will range from the upper 50s across West Central and Central Ohio to the lower to mid 60s in nrn KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will settle down over the region tonight in nw flow aloft. Skies should be mostly clear and winds will be light. A few cirrus might try to filter in towards sunrise in the w. The good radiational cooling conditions should allow temperatures to fall in the upper 30s for much over the region. Some of the normal cold spots could drop down into the mid 30s. Nrn KY counties could stay in in the lower 40s. Expect some frost development tonight. Will hold off on any advisory as it should be patchy except for the colder locations. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday as isentropic lift brings high clouds into the region. Highs Tuesday will be limited by the cool start and by the increasing cloud cover, so kept them in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday night will remain dry as H5 ridge reaches the Ohio Valley. Mid and high clouds will continue to thicken as the isentropic lift increases. Fast moving H5 s/w will swing out of the plains and into the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday. The consensus of the models is for the region to stay dry Wednesday, so delayed the pcpn chances until Wednesday Night. Highs on Wednesday will see a large range across the region. Extreme sw portions of nrn KY could make the upper 60s, with srn Oh and se IN making the mid 60s. Meanwhile across West Central Ohio and Central Ohio temperatures will stay in the upper 50s. Low pressure system and cdfnt push through the region Wednesday night. Went with likely pops across the n, but kept chance pops for the extreme srn counties. Instability is marginal across the area with this system. Did add slight chance of thunder to the nw counties for the first few hours of Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Precipitation to end from west to east Thursday with highs from the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south. Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a return to dry weather conditions. Highs to range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Model solns showing differences in strength and timing. Have held off any precipitation until late Saturday night. On warm side of this system and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs to range from the lower 60s far north to the upper 60s south. Will spread pops across the entire FA Saturday when the low and associated front is expected to impact the area. Have opted to go with more progressive solution ending precipitation Sunday but if the system is slower then pops will be required. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front and associated wind shift have moved through the TAF sites this morning. MVFR post-frontal stratocu have developed across central and west-central Ohio that will move south through the terminals through 18z. Brief MVFR CIGs are possible area-wide through 15z before lifting to a FEW/SCT VFR clouds by this afternoon. Any lingering clouds are expected to dissipate this evening, with SKC anticipated past 00z Tuesday for all sites as high pressure settles into the area. Winds will be out of the north-northwest through the day at about 10 kts. As high pressure moves in this evening and the gradient relaxes, light winds are expected past 00z Tuesday. Mid/high level clouds will be on the increase from the west towards the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.