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663
FXUS61 KILN 300555
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level disturbance will bring thunderstorms and the potential
for damaging winds today. A cold front will move through Monday night
into Tuesday bringing with it additional thunderstorm chances. Dry
conditions will be present for Wednesday before a weaker system
brings some additional precipitation chances for Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A disturbance moving through overnight will continue to bring showers
and thunderstorms to the region. A stronger disturbance moves
through during the day bringing with it additional thunderstorm
chances. Will continue to highlight the potential for damaging winds
in the HWO. In addition will continue to mention the potential for
isolated flooding as well.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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The cold front will work through Monday night into Tuesday. This
will bring with it additional thunderstorm chances until the passage
of the frontal boundary. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to
severe storm on Tuesday as well. The best chance for this would be
across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Will
mention isolated potential in the HWO.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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On Tuesday evening, a cold front will have just cleared through the
ILN forecast area, and will continue to move east. Behind the front,
surface high pressure -- and a cooler and drier air mass -- will
settle into the region. This will lead to quiet weather conditions
Tuesday night through Thursday morning.

By Thursday, there will be a slight shift to the weather pattern, as
troughing develops over the northeastern states, and ridging
develops through the central part of the CONUS. A weak shortwave in
the northwest flow may bring some precipitation to northern Indiana
and northern Ohio on Thursday afternoon.

By Friday, the surface high will be moving further to the east, and
the ridging over the central CONUS will begin drifting eastward as
well. This will place the Ohio Valley in a warm advection pattern
through the weekend, which will allow both heat and humidity to
gradually increase. In terms of temperatures, highs in the lower 90s
can be expected on Saturday and Sunday as well. As temperatures
increase, chances for precipitation will begin to increase again as
well -- just a little bit on Friday, and then with greater chances
on Saturday and Sunday. While chances for storms will increase, as
of now, no clear signs for organized convection or significant
hazards through the extended forecast period.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Showers and some thunder are moving across the region. Best chance
for thunder and gusty winds at the start of the TAF period will be
at KDAY, however there will be some thunder near KILN and therefore
have SHRA and VCTS there. In addition, likely to see visibility
reduced at KDAY as well. Some MVFR cigs will be possible late in the
overnight and morning daytime hours at the TAF sites, however
confidence is not high in exact placement and how widespread they
will be. Additional thunderstorms will develop and move across the
region during the day as an upper level disturbance moves through.
Some fog will be possible at the end of the longer KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Tuesday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...