Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311016 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 616 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING VERY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE 2 OR 3 DEGREES ABOVE THE VALUES FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS FORECAST (MID TO UPPER 80S) REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS FRONT PRESENTS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNCERTAIN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT APPEARS QUITE WEAK...THOUGH THE WIND PATTERN AND THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A LITTLE MORE DEFINITION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER. OVERALL...MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF GREATER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED IN NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LAYER OF VERY WARM AIR CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...DEPICTED ON JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL SOUNDING AVAILABLE. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER. IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...SHEAR OF THAT MAGNITUDE WOULD ASSIST IN STORM ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY PRESENTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXPECTED STORMS AND THE INSTABILITY PROFILE (PERHAPS THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING WILL ASSIST)...THIS THREAT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AS IT IS...POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN CWA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME. CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...PADGETT

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