Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240027 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 827 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the area tonight. This will usher in above normal temperatures that will last well into next week. A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes on Sunday with another low lifting into the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Area of mid clouds spread through the region, with diminishing precipitation ahead of an approaching warm front. Much of the area is quite dry, and weaking precipitation approaching the region is falling from a fairly high base cloud level. Have adjusted precipitation timing a bit, bringing in spotty very light showers a little further south and delaying advancement of showers currently near Chicago to mainly after 03z across the north, but will still be brief and light. Temperatures will begin leveling off a bit by midnight then beginning to rise after 06z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Area will be in the warm sector through the period. Southerly winds will bring an influx of moisture which will result in quite a bit of cloud cover. Despite this, temperatures will be rather mild. MOS blend seemed to have a reasonable handle on both highs and lows. Not out of the question that a few showers developing across Indiana could move into western counties late Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weakening upper level low pressure system will lift slowly northeast from the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday to the eastern Great Lakes through Monday. Several pieces of mid/upper level energy will rotate around the low and across our area through the weekend leading to fairly high pops and occasional showers. Instability remains fairly meager through Saturday although there is a bit of an uptick in the mucapes during the afternoon and into the evening which could lead to a few embedded thunderstorms. With a warm air mass in place on Saturday, highs will range from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s across the southeast. The main upper level trough axis will pivot up across our region late Saturday night and into Sunday afternoon. Some slightly better instabilities will develop out ahead of this which should lead to some better chances of thunder for later Sunday morning and into the afternoon, especially across eastern portions of our area. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the 60s. Brief mid level ridging will push east across the region Sunday night, leading to a bit of a lull in any pcpn. However, another upper level through axis will work east across the area Monday into Tuesday. This will result in additional chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms, primarily for Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Ahead of this system, highs on Monday will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs cooling back down into the 60s for Tuesday. Weak mid level ridging will then build back into the region through mid week. This will lead to dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Clouds a little slower to lower and spread across the region ahead of the advancing warm front. Have continued to keep mention of showers out of all TAF sites, as shower activity is becoming increasingly spotty, and all is falling from VFR bases with no visibility restrictions. As the southeast winds shift south, this will coincide with a speed increase after about 05z, so continuing the low level wind shear all locations through 13-14z. As the column saturates, in especially the KDAY but possibly KILN area, the potential for MVFR ceilings after 12z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected Saturday night into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible again Monday night into Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...JDR

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