Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290811 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 411 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will build in through mid week. Another cold front will cross the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Clouds and some moisture are being drawn northward into the region from Bonnie. Cannot rule out some showers developing in this plume this morning and affecting eastern counties before shifting off to the east. Expect scattered convection to develop in the afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and a weak cold front approaches from the west. Appears that shear will remain weak, so the chance of organized storms is very low. But there could be enough instability for some stronger storms that approach severe limits. Convection will continue across eastern counties into the evening before diminishing. The front will not move through all counties until well after midnight. Forecast temperatures did not stray too far from MOS blend. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will build into the region during this time frame. Dew points will lower slightly. And this will allow for somewhat cooler night time temperatures. But highs will still be in the lower to mid 80s with readings a bit warmer Tuesday compared to Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure east of the region at the beginning of the period should still keep dry and warm conditions in place. A cold front will move in from the west on Thursday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. 00Z guidance in reasonable agreement that this front will move east of the area Thursday night. Meanwhile upper low will close off along the Texas coast. So the threat of precipitation being drawn back into the southeast counties has diminished. Temperatures will fall slightly below normal late in the week as high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precipitation has tapered off across the TAF sites. Have some fog developing overnight across some of the areas that received rainfall yesterday. In addition river valley fog is expected at KLUK. A few light showers will be possible during the early daytime hours on Sunday. Expect any thunderstorm activity to hold off until the afternoon and evening hours. Have some VCTS in across western TAF sites during the afternoon as a weak disturbance moves across the area. This feature becomes not as pronounced as it moves further east. Additional thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening as a cold front moves through. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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