-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 171553
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1153 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE LATEST RAP MODEL...COMPARED TO THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING...SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALSO...IT IS MIXING THE AIRMASS THROUGH 850 MB BY LATE
AFTN. THIS DEEPER MIXING...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN IN/IL BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE WILL BE DRY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START OFF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF
COLUMBUS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD WEAKENING THIS MOISTURE
STARVED FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY JUST WEST OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE AND
WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING ITS
CHARACTERISTICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION....AND THE CANADIAN HIGH BEHIND THE
LOW FAILS TO BUILD TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS DO NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY DECENT POPS...AND THE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE GENEROUS FOR THIS FRONT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
60S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY MAY BE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWER 60S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE COUNTERACTING NATURE OF THE
HEIGHT RISES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE YET ANOTHER DAY
OF MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE 60 AS COOLER AIR IS DRAWN ACROSS THOSE ZONES
FROM LAKE ERIE.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN FLOW
AND BUILDING 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT
OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE FOR PRIMARILY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO JUST
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CLOUDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL