Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 242348
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
748 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Weak high pressure will build into the area Tuesday into
Wednesday, leading to dry conditions and above normal
temperatures. A cold front will push into the region on
Thursday and then stall out across the Ohio Valley through the
weekend. This will result in a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the second half of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The cloud shield has pushed up to about the I-71 corridor early
this afternoon. We are seeing some spotty light returns on
radar across our southeast but little if any of this is likely
reaching the ground. Both the 12Z NAM and GFS continue to advect
low level moisture (at and below 700 mb) northwest across the
remainder of our area through tonight. This may be overdone
somewhat with the drier air in place, but given the progress so
far, will allow for partly to mostly cloudy skies across the
area for tonight. Will also keep a 20 pop across our far
southeast to account for any stray showers/sprinkles. Lows
tonight will be around 50.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A narrow surface ridge axis will push east across our area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will lead to some developing
low level southerly flow and weak WAA through the day on
Tuesday. This will result in decreasing clouds with highs on
Tuesday into the mid 70s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models point to an unsettled weather pattern featuring a
persistent frontal boundary, enhanced by several waves of low
pressure, fed by a rich supply of moisture.
Area will be in a dry southerly flow between two low pressure
systems on Wednesday, with no precip expected. That will change
starting on Thursday when a cold front is forecast to swing through
from the west, bringing the likelihood for showers and
thunderstorms. The frontal boundary will wash out briefly under high
pressure Thursday night, before redeveloping as a warm front and
lifting across the region Friday to Sunday. This scenario suggests a
prolonged period for showers and thunderstorms to develop, lasting
through the weekend. A strong cold front is expected to push through
Monday, accompanied by more rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be above normal for most of the period. Highs in
the 80s Wednesday will be boosted by warm advection. Readings are
forecast to slide back into the 70s Thursday and Friday due to
precip and modest cold advection associated with the weakening cold
front. Mainly 80s are expected Saturday and Sunday with the area in
the warm sector. A retreat toward the near normal upper 60s will be
possible Monday behind the stronger cold front.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low level southeasterly flow will continue to lead to an
increase in and Low and mid level moisture tonight. Will
continue VFR CIGS as low as 4000 feet through the evening.
Model solutions show the development of low level moisture
late tonight. Have continued to show MVFR CIGs developing at
all but KCMH/KLCK late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Have also a mention of MVFR VSBY restriction in river fog at
KLUK. If clouds are thinner the potential exists for a period of
IFR VSBY restrictions at KLUK.
Expect the clouds and any fog to improve with VFR conditions
returning by mid morning.
East winds at 10 to 15 kts will diminish to less than 10 kts
overnight and then become southeast around 10 kts on Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday through Saturday.
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