-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 050204
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
904 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AGAIN ON THURSDAY...KEEPING A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RESPONDED AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. THIS SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE COOL OFF COULD POSSIBLY BE
DUE TO SOME LOSS OF SNOW PACK FROM MELTING DURING THE STRONGER
MARCH SUN TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE TWEAKED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES DURING THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE THE
ONUS FOR ANY SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AND IT MAY END
UP BEING A VIRGA EXERCISE WITH PRECIP EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND A
NORTHEAST WIND HAD ME LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD.

BY THE TIME THE ACTUAL STRONGER VORT MAX AND S/W CROSSES LATER ON
THURSDAY...THE LOWER REACHES AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE BEEN IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR...LIMITING ANY
MOISTURE FOR THE LIFT TO WORK WITH. WAY TOO MUCH DETAIL TO
DESCRIBE A DRY FORECAST.

EXPECT A GRADUAL MODIFICATION ON TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT RISE
EACH DAY. STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT ANY LONG PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST ON EITHER WED OR THURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP MID LEVEL RIDGING NOSE UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
ARE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS WEAKER TREND...WILL BACK OFF ON
POPS A BIT AND JUST HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY... YIELDING PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH ANY PCPN
AND A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME CAA BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS BACK A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTH. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA UNDER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE HINTING AT
SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPPING DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MIX OF SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVERAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LIKELY BECOMING BKN BY THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...LATTO