Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291804 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 104 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DRY SLOT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO SW OHIO WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACRS THE FA. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED 8H AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...INITIAL PCPN TYPE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WAS FREEZING RAIN. THIS INITIAL BAND OF PCPN IS MOVING EAST AND THE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP. ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AHD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN INDIANA. HAVE DROPPED COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED A LITTLE LAG FOR ROAD TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING ACRS THE SCIOTO VLY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE FA RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SNOW OFF OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND UNDER AN INCH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. A LARGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST AMPLITUDE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS DEEPER/SHARPER AND THUS SLOWER. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS SNOW. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR ERROR AS MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TO BUMP POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER FORECAST. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS ALTHOUGH IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO THINK ABOUT SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKY COVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN COLDER PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GFS SEEMED TOO FAST AND SO IGNORED IT. THUS BROUGHT A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER LOWER MI TO LIFT NE WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER INDIANA SWEEPING EAST THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE PSBL. DUE TO LACK OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH. HAVE CIGS DROP TO IFR FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN AT KDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS THRU THE NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE OMITTED THE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 28KTS AND VEER TO THE WEST THIS AFTN. THESE WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 24 KTS AND VEER NW TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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