Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281427 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1027 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA EAST NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OHIO. STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD RESULT IN A ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER SO MAY NOT EVEN GET THUNDER IF ANY ECHOES DO DEVELOP. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST / SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR FAIRLY UNLIKELY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS UNCERTAIN). TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STRATUS AFFECTING TERMINALS EXCEPT CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AT KLUK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...

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