Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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536 FXUS61 KILN 260550 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1250 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will build in the midwest and settle south of the Ohio Valley tonight. Zonal upper level flow and southerly surface flow will then combine to permit a moisture feed from the Gulf, and a disturbance moving with the zonal flow aloft will initiate showers over the region Sunday night and Monday. A weakly inverted trough at the surface will help move these showers northward on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Satellite imagery shows back edge of clouds moving into southwest counties. Warm air advection in the low levels overnight will result in clouds clearing across the entire region. It appears that this will occur a bit quicker along and south of the Ohio River. But most everywhere will be clear by daybreak. Some light scattered flurries along and north of I-70 will continue until clouds diminish. Temperatures will drop off later tonight, although wind may keep readings from bottoming out too far. Still expecting lower to mid 20s area wide. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The break in the cloud cover Sunday with seasonal temperatures will see increased cloud cover overnight with Gulf moisture streaming through and pooling over the Ohio Valley. A weak shortwave in the mean westerly flow will help wring out showers from southwest to northeast, possibly beginning overnight Sunday but likely holding off until the daytime hours Monday. Low chance pops will increase after midnight and spread from the southwest to the northeast overnight. Temperatures will only drop into the 30s with weak warm advection and southerly flow overnight. Precipitation type should be all rain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level disturbance will move across the region on Monday. Temperature profiles suggest that although precipitation will start out as a rain and snow mix, as warmer air works into the region precipitation will change over to all rain. After this feature moves through there will be a brief lull in the precipitation until moisture is drawn up into the region Monday night into Tuesday. Did not go quite as high as the superblend during this time due to lack of substantial forcing. Due to having less precipitation went slightly higher on temperatures for Tuesday. With a surge of warm air in advance of the next system, well above normal temperatures will continue for Wednesday. Have better precipitation chances on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system and associated cold front approach and move through. There is some instability and therefore also have some thunder chances with this system. Temperatures will dip down into the 30s with the passage of the cold front. Increased winds with this system as model soundings are indicating some higher wind gusts. Did not go as high as some of the model outputs were suggesting, however trended away from superblend towards some higher gusts. Some residual precipitation will be possible on Thursday with cooler temperatures with trough in place. Went colder than superblend on Friday as models are consistent with cold pattern in place. An upper level disturbance is expected to work down into the region on Friday. There are some model differences in the exact placement in this feature however with cold air in place expect any precipitation to be in the form of snow. Temperatures begin to moderate for Saturday as southerly flow develops. Dry conditions are expected during this time with high pressure situated southeast of the region. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will continue to build up into the Ohio Valley through this morning. Skies have been clearing from the southwest and this trend should continue through the pre dawn hours. We will start to get into some return flow as the high pushes off to the east later this afternoon and into tonight. This will eventually lead to an increase in some mid level cloudiness toward the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday into Wednesday and then again on Thursday. Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL

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