Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231344 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 944 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure centered to the south will keep dry weather over the region today, but an approaching cold front from the north will bring some gusty winds. The cold front will drop through the region tonight, but will only bring some clouds. A large area of high pressure will bring more dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface high pressure is located in the southeastern states, with an area of low pressure currently moving into Wisconsin. This low is forecast to move ESE into the southern Great Lakes today, strengthening the pressure gradient over the northern Ohio Valley this afternoon (particularly in the 18Z-00Z time frame). On the south side of this low, with virtually no upper support near the ILN forecast area, the increase in wind is expected to be the only notable impact to the weather through the afternoon. In fact, skies are likely to remain generally clear, and the 12Z KILN sounding measured a precipitable water value of only 0.49 inches. No changes were made to temperatures today. Some slight increases were made to sky grids overnight and into Monday morning, as low-level moisture is forecast to increase on the northerly flow behind the surface low. A deck of low-level clouds is expected to advect into the area from southern Michigan, though how far it makes it into the ILN CWA remains in question.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight a H5 s/w will swing thru the ern Great Lakes and into New England. At the surface, a cold front will drop down from Lake Erie. The best lift with this system stays north and east of the fa, and with relatively limited moisture to work with, only expect clouds with fropa tonight. By sunrise Monday, the front will be south of the Ohio River, leaving the fa mostly clear. The region will remain under the nw H5 flow aloft on Monday Surface high pressure centered over the upper MS Valley will bring cooler air in. Highs will range from the mid to upper 50s in Central and West Central OH to the lower to mid 60s in nrn KY. The high will settle over the region Monday night. This will lead to mostly clear skies and light winds. Patchy frost will be a possibility for a good portion of the region as lows will dip into the mid to upper 30s, with some lower 40s in nrn KY and parts of se IN. Cirrus looks like it will be trying to build in from the west late Monday night, so we will have to see how that affects frost development. The high will remain across the region on Tuesday keeping things dry, but with the nw flow aloft, high clouds will affect the region. Expect highs to range from the mid 50s in the northeast to the lower 60s in the south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Numerical model solutions showing a progressive mid level shortwave tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley at mid week. Some timing differences exist with the solutions but Wednesday night looks to be the best threat for rain and have bumped pops up to likely then. Wednesday`s high temperatures to range from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south. Precipitation to end from west to east Thursday with highs of 60 to 65. Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a return to dry weather conditions. Highs again will fall in the 60 to 65 degree range. Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Have held off any precipitation until Saturday night. On warm side of this system and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs to range from the lower and middle 60s far north to near 70 south. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak sfc low pressure will track north of the area across the Great Lakes region today. With this, the pressure gradient will become a bit tighter this afternoon in the area, allowing for southwesterly winds to gust to 20-25 kts at times. With the passage of the cold front from northwest to southeast across the area after 00z, winds will become more westerly and eventually northwesterly towards 06z. A few VFR clouds are possible with the FROPA. Latest model soundings are hinting at increased low level moisture towards 09z Monday that will move south through the area. There remains some uncertainty as to whether this will evolve into MVFR CIGs for the terminals between 09-15z Monday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Hickman/Sites NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.