Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 031404 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 904 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION TO RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH INTIAL FOCUS ON THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND THEN SWITCHING TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND HEAVY SNOW WED/THU. ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO AN AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN ACRS ILN/S NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. REPORTS AND RADAR INDICATED A MIX WITH SLEET AT TIME ACRS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS BAND IS SHIFTING N WITH BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN EXITING ILN/S FA. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS WARM BULGE ALOFT OF 6 DEG C AROUND 78O MB BUT RATHER DRY AIR BELOW THIS. WITH LIGHT ECHO RETURNS...THIS HAS LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BETTER LIFT COMES INTO PLAY BY LATE MORNING AS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ASSOICATED WITH 60-65 KT LLJ. SEEING THIS BETTER FORCING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN INDIANA. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND OF DIMINISHING POPS WITH AN INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT CURRENT FREEZING RAIN HEADLINES IN PLACE WITH SFC TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID/UPR 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACRS THE NE WITH EASTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN A SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS REGARDING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHTER. DUE TO THIS REASON HELD OFF ON A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA. DID GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SOUTHWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE EVEN LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS CAN CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. CHANGED A TIER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SINCE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. KEPT A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET MIXING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND THEREFORE DID NOT CHANGE THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION A MIX OF PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NW OF DAYTON WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THEY DO RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW HOWEVER A WINTRY MIX WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SE OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN AMOUNTS FURTHER NW OF INTERSTATE 71. EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO COVER ALL BUT FRANKLIN INDIANA AND BUTLER COUNTY OHIO OF THE 4 INCH SNOW CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NW EDGE OF THE SNOW AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE COUNTIES OUT AT THIS TIME. HAVE THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WATCH WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE REST OF THE WATCH WITH AROUND 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. ALTHOUGH SOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AGAIN...DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON FRIDAY AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY GET MIXED OUT BUT LINGERING SNOW COVER AND A STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL BE IN PLAY. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FRONT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ON MONDAY. FRONT ON MONDAY MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S READINGS...30S AND 40S...BUT FOR THE MOST PART AVERAGING A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH KDAY ALREADY REPORTING FZDZ. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS THAT THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY REDEVELOPS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/ NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CIGS FALLING INTO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS AM A LITTLE HESITANT WITH THIS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO AGAIN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-043>046-056. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088. FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ078>082-088. KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ091>093. IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073-074. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-080. FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ075. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...HAINES

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