Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 041039 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 639 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR OUR NW CWFA. THE AIRMASS HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS AVERAGING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT OUR NW CWFA WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LOW. MEAN CLOUD BEARING FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH...SO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 PERCENT NORTHWEST TO 20 PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS READINGS WHICH PEAKED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. GIVEN SLOW MOTION OF STORMS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORE ROBUST STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY SATURDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND EAST. WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY FOR A THREAT OF A SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE BIT DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT AND WHETHER OR NOT A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND LINGERS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DECIDED TO LINGER THE PRECIPITATION LONGER THAN THE GFS HOWEVER NOT AS LONG AS THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AROUND THE REGION AND ON THURSDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO...IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES. ASIDE FROM THIS...SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND THE REGION...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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