Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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067 FXUS61 KILN 050909 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 409 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF THESE WORK INTO AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...WE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... IN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH SOME WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE DEVELOPING AT AND BELOW ABOUT 800 MB LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS WITH ITS CAA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL LEAN TOWARD MAINLY RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 40S...WARMING A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND COLD TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY). MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH / CLOSED LOW HAS DEPARTED. HOWEVER...TIMING OUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE...AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL BE ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF SNOW DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY STRETCH. WHILE POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW FOR NOW (AROUND 40 PERCENT) DUE TO THESE CONCERNS AND UNCERTAIN TIMING...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF -14C TO -18C APPEAR LIKELY...AND MAX/MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW STRATUS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN AROUND TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK TO THE TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR A 5K FT DECK DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HAINES

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