Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300940 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 440 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BLASTING THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A BRIEF LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOUND BEHIND IT THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DUSTING TO A QUARTER INCH OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT MORESO NORTHEAST OF CINCINNATI AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 NORTH OF COLUMBUS TO AROUND 30 SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A MORE INTERESTING AND/OR PROBLEMATIC FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXIT ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONT DEVELOP ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION AND PRECIPITATE AS IT GETS LIFTED WHEN IT APPROACHES THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OF THE WARM FRONT. VERY LITTLE TO NOTE AT H5 BUT THE H8 LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT FOLLOWING THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN A GOOD BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS...LIKELY SKIRTING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE PRECIP ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WILL BE ALL SNOW. SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR GETS PULLED IN IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW MIX REMAINS IN HIGH QUESTION BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF BOTH. WOULD HAVE ISSUED A WATCH FOR A WEDGE OF COUNTIES SURROUNDING DAYTON FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 24 HOUR CRITERIA OF 8" AND 6" FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH OF CINCINNATI APPEAR TO BE A REALISTIC ESTIMATION OF WHAT TO EXPECT. BEING THAT FAR OUT IN TIME AND WITH THE MODELS STILL WAFFLING BETWEEN A WARMER NORTHERN STORM /NAM/ AND A COLDER YET DRIER SOUTHERN LOW TRACK /CANADIAN/...THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH COMBINING THE GFS AND EUROPEAN APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE CONSENSUS. HEADLINES WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PROLONGED SNOWFALL EVENT WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6" NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...TOPPING 9" IN SPOTS AROUND METRO DAYTON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR INDIANA COUNTIES AND SPREAD EAST...REMAINING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AND WILL LIKELY BE RAIN FOR A GOOD BIT DURING THE DAY FOR MANY KENTUCKY COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM COOLS AND SWEEPS THROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO EKE OUT A SOLID 2-4" FOR KENTUCKY COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME...A SWATH OF 8" IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ACCRUE OVER A 24-30 HOUR TIME FRAME WHICH MAY PRECLUDE WATCH AND WARNING HEADLINES. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THAT A SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR A LONGER PERIOD WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CUT EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS THAT ARE AROUND 6". THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH LEEWAY FOR THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO MOVE AROUND TO ACCURATELY SAY THAT THESE SNOW TOTALS ARE SOLID NUMBERS BUT THEY SHOULD ALERT THE REGION THAT ADVERSE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN ANY RAIN WILL DEFINITELY CHANGE TO SNOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM THAT MUCH FROM MONDAY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GO BELOW ZERO WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE IN THE COLDEST AIR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS TRIES TO SPREAD ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PCPN INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY MID WEEK. SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO COLD VALUES BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT WELL TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ENDING AROUND 10Z VCTY KCMH/KLCK. OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF PCPN CIGS SHOULD BE VFR AROUND FL035. BY MID MORNING CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. AS DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY LEAVING SCT HIGH CLOUDS OR CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. OUTLOOK...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...HAYDU

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