Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 261046
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
646 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016
A cold front will move east across the region today, bringing
showers and a few thunderstorms. Drier and cooler weather will
move in behind the front tonight and Tuesday. An upper level low
pressure system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by mid week which will keep the weather cool due to clouds
and the threat for showers.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mosaic radar this morning depicted showers and a few thunderstorms
moving into the northwest counties. Showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms are expected to increase across the western zones
through sunrise as a cold front approaches from the west. The
front will move east across the region today. The best chance for
measurable rain looks to be across the northwest where upper
divergence from a pivoting upper level jet will couple with low
level forcing. Will range pops from categorical west and north to
likely southeast. We should see skies begin to clear from the west
during the afternoon as decent subsidence and drier air pushes
into the area. Temperatures will range from the upper 60s
northwest to near 80 in the far southeast.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A large scale mid level trough will close off as it slowly digs
southward into the western Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. For
our area, we will see clear skies tonight, with sunny skies
expected Tuesday as we remain in the dry, subsidence region behind
the departing front and approaching mid level low. It will become
a bit breezy across all but the southeast CWFA by Tuesday
afternoon due to an increasing pressure gradient and deep mixing.
Have wind gusts between 30 and 35 mph in the northwest with 15 to
20 mph in the southeast. Highs will range from the lower to mid
70s, which is typical for late September.
Models have come into better agreement for Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. Aforementioned mid level circulation will
continue to drift southward toward the Ohio River Valley. This
process will cause clouds to increase from northwest to southeast
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Embedded s/wv energy rotating around
the low will combine with diurnal heating to bring a threat for
showers all locations by Wednesday. It may be unstable enough for
a thunderstorms across our eastern/southern zones by Wednesday
afternoon. After a cool start in the 45 to 50 degree range
Wednesday morning, highs will range from the lower 60s northwest
to the lower 70s southeast. Lows Wednesday night will be pretty
uniform given clouds cover with upper 40s expected.
The operational GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET continue to struggle as to
how far south and west mid level circulation will drift Thursday
into Thursday night. For now, kept skies mostly cloudy with a
lingering threat for some showers. Have lowered highs on Thursday
into the 60s while warming lows Thursday night into the lower 50s
due to clouds.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended forecast continues to be a dilemma among the
operational models in terms of high fast upper level low will
linger across our region. The GFS is most progressive while the
ECMWF offers the farthest west and slowest solution. The UKMET is
in between these two solutions. Given the high uncertainty at this
time, have gone with a blend among available models in terms of
temperatures while keeping the forecast dry. However, should the
low linger per the ECMWF and UKMET, spotty mainly diurnal shower
activity may have to be added to the extended on subsequent
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front is now moving through the TAF sites, and switching
winds to the west. Behind the front is a broken band of
precipitation -- mostly just showers, but with some embedded
thunderstorms on the leading edge. A VCTS has been added to KDAY
for this, but the probability is a little lower for the other
As the rain moves through, MVFR ceilings/visibilities are likely
to occur. Some ceilings below 2000 feet may occur, but should be
brief if they do.
After the rain comes to an end, MVFR ceilings will remain in place
for another couple hours, but skies are likely to clear to VFR by
mid afternoon. Winds this afternoon will gut into the 15-20 knot
OUTLOOK...Breezy west winds are expected on Tuesday, with gusts
of 20-25 knots. Rain and MVFR ceilings are possible from
Wednesday through Friday.
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