Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 172356 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 756 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region late in the overnight and into the morning on Friday. High pressure will then briefly move into the region, however another disturbance is expected to bring additional precipitation chances to the region for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A round of much less organized thunderstorm activity will push in to southern CWA from the southwest this evening and slowly move east tonight. Increased the chances of storms here and lowered significantly elsewhere behind the earlier line of storms. Temperatures were adjusted for a few hours this evening given the cooler post-thunderstorm atmosphere for the I-71 corridor, but are expected to rebound to be fairly uniform with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. The threat for this second round of storms to produce any damage is minimal but will be monitored through the evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions are expected for much of Friday and into Friday night. A quick moving upper level disturbance will approach the region late in the overnight Friday night and therefore introduced some precipitation chances across northwestern portions of the area. Went close to conshort and superblend for temperatures during this time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Period begins with a H5 s/w swinging through the srn Great Lakes. Extended models still are showing a range in their QPF forecasts. The NAM is the driest, with very little QPF produced while the Canadian hemispheric carries the most. Will continue with a north/south gradient in the PoPs, going from 30 in the north to 10 in nrn KY. Highs will be seasonal ranging from 80 to 85 degrees. The s/w pulls away Saturday night, allowing high pressure to build in at the surface. The high will keep the region dry Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday, models drop energy into the region from the Great Lakes, bringing scattered thunderstorms. Cold front will drop through the region Tuesday night lowering pcpn chances from n to s. There are timing differences so kept PoPs across the entire fa Tuesday night. Front will gradually pull away from the from region on Wednesday, bringing an end to the pcpn threat. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A second round of showers and thunderstorms will affect southern TAF sites early this evening, but should only hit KILN with non-thunderstorm showers and miss CVG/LUK with convective activity staying to their south/east. HRRR shows this area affecting the region east of the I-71 corridor and not reaching CMH/LCK whereas the other models seem unrealistic by painting a broad swath of storms along and even west of the corridor. These missed the initial line of storms and are being discounted as viable solutions. Outside of shower activity, VFR conditions should prevail for the overnight and into tomorrow. Some cu topped with AS or CI from upstream storms will dissipate later this evening and some patchy fog could develop and reduce vsbys to 5sm in spots after midnight through daybreak. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Franks

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