Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202017 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 317 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unseasonably warm conditions will continue into tonight. A cold front will move through the area late tonight through Wednesday, bringing widespread showers and cooler temperatures. An unsettled weather pattern will then persist through the rest of the week as a series of disturbances affect the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Isolated shower activity has pushed north of our area with otherwise partly sunny skies across the region. With some sun and in good southerly flow, we are well into record temperature territory this afternoon. Winds have been gusting in the 30-35 knot range through early afternoon, but with the low level jet shifting off to the east, expect to see a gradual decline in the gustiness through the rest of the afternoon before dropping off even more toward sunset. That being said, the winds will stay up across the area enough tonight to keep temperatures from dropping too much ahead of the approaching cold front. This should allow us to set record high min temperatures for this date too. The cold front will push into our northwest late tonight with the bulk of the pcpn along and behind the front. Will therefore mainly just have some chance pops working in from the west later tonight before going categorical in the far west as we get closer to daybreak. Some weak elevated instabilities will be pulled up into at least our southern areas ahead of the front late tonight. This may be enough for a few embedded thunderstorms to develop across our southwest late.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front will continue to push southeast across the area Wednesday morning and should be southeast of our area by early afternoon. With a narrow ribbon of elevated instabilities remaining just ahead of the front, will continue with an isolated thunderstorm across the southeast through the morning hours. Otherwise, fairly widespread shower activity is expected through much of the day and into Wednesday night as a series of additional waves work east along the cold front that will stall out to our south. As we get on the backside of the front and into some CAA, temperatures will drop off through the day on Wednesday. This will eventually allow for some below freezing temperatures to possibly work into our north later Wednesday night. There are some disagreements in the models as to how far south this will get though with the 12Z ECMWF not as aggressive with the cold air. As a result, ptype may become an issue Wednesday night as the colder air at the surface undercuts the warmer air aloft. This could lead to some freezing rain across parts of our north, primarily north of the I-70 corridor but confidence is not terribly high given some of the model discrepancies. Considered going with a flood watch to match up with our western neighbors but with the models generally showing a weakening QPF footprint across our area with the front tonight into Wednesday, think we will be okay flood wise through this first round. Later shifts can then try and pinpoint where/if a flood watch will be needed for the additional rounds of pcpn later in the week.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The long term continues to be advertised as active with multiple rounds of precipitation possible and above normal temperatures. Thursday morning precipitation will be spread over the area with the GFS and NAM indicating the potential for freezing rain. The ECMWF is slightly further north with the freezing rain. During the day Thursday temperatures will quickly warm with highs in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees across northern Kentucky. Thursday afternoon it looks like we might get a brief break in the precipitation with the old ECMWF still showing a wetter pattern. The latest CMC appears to be a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF with precipitation confined to our southeastern zones. The issue has to deal with how strong the subtropical ridge is forecast to be off the Carolina coast. The ECMWF shows a slightly stronger ridge, while the GFS shows slightly weaker ridging. Due to this, the track of the corresponding shortwave changes. Friday, yet another surface low will push across the area and ripple along a stalled front. This means more heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs remain around 1.30" or near record territory. Late Friday into Saturday the pattern will finally begin to change as the subtropical ridge off the east coast breaks down and the upper level low off the west coast pushes east. A secondary surface low is then forecast to move across the area Saturday morning ahead of a more potent surface low that is forecast to form Saturday evening across the plains. This surface low (or third) will then push across the area Sunday with a cold front pushing across the area Sunday morning. Due to the multiple rounds of precipitation forecast there is a threat for flooding which includes river and creek rises. Everyone should continue to watch for updates for the Friday through Sunday morning period. Any slight change in the strength of the ridge can easily change the QPF footprint.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Gusty south to southwest winds will continue through this afternoon with occasional gusts to around 35 knots possible. A cold front will push southeast across the region later tonight through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are expected through this evening, but as the front approaches, clouds will thicken up and lower overnight, eventually dropping into MVFR late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Then as we get on the backside of the front, cigs may drop into IFR for a period later Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Showers will also accompany the front, spreading in from the northwest late tonight and then continuing through the remainder of the TAF period. This will also lead to MVFR to occasional IFR vsbys through the later part of the TAF period. Finally, there may also be a brief window of LLWS later tonight, especially at the central Ohio TAFs, but have left the mention out of the TAFs at the moment due to the relatively short duration. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely into Thursday. At least MVFR conditions are likely to continue through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures for February 20... CVG...52 degrees...1994 CMH...49 degrees...1930 DAY...49 degrees...1930 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL CLIMATE...

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