Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 131958 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 358 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...KEEPING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY DECREASING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE DRYING AIRMASS BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH INCREASES. UNDER A COOL AIRMASS WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS IN THE 40S WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 70 IN THE PERSISTENTLY COOL AIRMASS. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF PVA ALONG WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL WORK TOGETHER WITH SCANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE...WHILE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SCOOTS EAST. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL TROF ACRS THE NE US AND SE CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FAR SE VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...OFFERING COOL AND DRY WEATHER THRU MID WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS TO WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD OUR AREA. A SECOND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME MODIFICATION IN FORM OF A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HAVE CHC POPS SAT NIGHT WITH S/W AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY LIFT AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NNW WINDS (SLIGHTLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON) WILL DIMINISH AS THEY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH A FAVORABLE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND COOLING INTO THE 40S...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLUK. MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE INTRODUCED INTO THIS SET OF TAFS...THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE FOG MAY BE MORE DENSE THAN THIS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

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