Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 310033 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 833 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME. CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR SKC FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT MVFR BR AT MORE PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLUK/LILN. VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH WINDS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK MAY INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK IN AFTER 00Z. WITH SOME INCREASING MOISTURE...A FEW MORE VFR LEVEL CU DURING FRIDAY THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JDR

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