Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261750 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 150 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stalled frontal boundary will provide the focus for thunderstorm development today through Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will persist Thursday and Friday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to bring enhanced lift along the boundary. High temperatures in the middle and upper 80s today and Wednesday will fall slightly to the lower to middle 80s by Friday under clouds, precipitation and modest cold advection.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Area of convection continues to fire across central Indiana north of a stalled sfc boundary. Earlier model runs were suggesting that the front would be farther south and therefore the convection would affect nrn KY more than srn IN and srn OH. It now looks like the front will stay in srn OH, so upped pops across SE IN and srn OH and raised pops in Dayton area into the middle Scioto Valley, while lowering pops a little for nrn KY. Kept previous highs in the 80s. Lower 80s area expected in the Whitewater Valley with temperatures becoming warmer in the Scioto Valley and nrn KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Frontal boundary will be gradually sagging southward through Kentucky tonight through Wednesday. Thunderstorms may still develop in the persistently moist and unstable airmass associated with the front. Best chance for thunderstorms will be along and south of the Ohio River, while northern locations may not see any convective activity. For Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop to the west in response to a mid level short wave entering the Mississippi River Valley. This will result in increasing thunderstorm chances by Thursday afternoon, especially in southeast counties where forcing will coincide with peak instability. A few strong thunderstorms may occur in an environment featuring moderate instability and mid level flow. Temperatures rising to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday may slip a few degrees Thursday under clouds, precip and modest cold advection. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As we head into the weekend and then into early next week, mid level trough and moisture will gradually depart to our east. allowing surface high pressure to build into from the north Sunday into Monday, bringing a return to dry weather. Temperatures will show a downward trend into the weekend due to more clouds and the threat for rain. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 Wednesday will lower into the lower/mid 80s by the weekend. Nighttime lows will be mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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TSRA have developed over CVG/LUK near a stalled frontal boundary. Expect those 2 locations to be affected by the TSRA for the first couple of hours of the period with MVFR/IFR vsbys. After that TSRA will be scattered across srn OH and nrn KY, so transitioned to a VCTS. Up at KILN, a MVFR cigs on the nrn edge of the convection has worked in. As the convection works ne, it could brush ILN. Only went with VCTS for a few hours to cover the threat. DAY could get nicked by a VFR shower, but expect CMH/LCK to remain dry. Model trend is for the convection to weaken and dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, so have the tafs dry overnight. With lingering dewpoints in the 70s at the srn tafs, kept the mention of some fog overnight. Scattered convection should pop up again tomorrow, so have VCTS in the CVG 30 hour taf. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon through Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...Sites

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