Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 222007 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 407 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain across the region through Friday. A weak cold front will move into the area Saturday...stall near the Ohio River and then lift back north early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Some cirrus will spread across the region overnight. But this should have little if any effect on radiational cooling conditions. Winds will become light again. Lows will be slightly warmer than last night but a bit cooler than guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will remain across the region for another day. There will be some mid to high clouds...but still a good deal of sun. Temperatures will be near persistence. A weak cold front oriented east-west will sag south. Wind shift will move through Friday night with any change in airmass lagging behind and not moving into the area until Saturday. Forcing is meager but 12Z models have enough of a signal to warrant slight chance PoPs in the Whitewater and Miami Valleys Saturday afternoon. Expect the front to stall near the Ohio River. This front will lead to a pretty good gradient in temperatures from north to south both Saturday and Saturday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Models are in agreement on keeping Sunday dry, however there is still quite a bit of model variability beyond this time. At this time Monday and Wednesday look to be the best chance for precipitation. Limited any precipitation chances to the chance category until there is better resolution and confidence in one solution. Models are trending cooler for later portions of the long term. Went with a model blend for the Monday through Thursday time period. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days with cooler conditions after that time.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Little change in the weather pattern as high pressure remains across the forecast area. Some cirrus blowoff from upstream convection will continue to drift into the area. Fog should develop again tonight at LUK. Extent of fog is problematic, thus will continue with current fcst of 1/2 mile vsby. Brief light fog may occur at CVG near sunrise but not enough to include for now. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Padgett

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