Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 051355 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 955 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS ARE PUSHING DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. HAVE THEREFORE MADE SOME UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT TO SEE THE AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CENTRAL FA FILL IN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED...HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SATURDAY. THE DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY BUT HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AM NOT SOLD ON THE FRI PM PRECIP AS THE H5 PATTERN SHOWS A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDING IN. SATURDAY RAIN IS BEING SHOWN AS MUCH MORE ROBUST WHEN LOOKING AT SEVERAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES AND THE AREA OF RAIN MOVES SOUTH AND AWAY FROM CWA WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT. KEEPING A GENERALLY COOL FORECAST WITH A DECENT BUMP IN HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY...LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. DID NOT SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY CONTAINING THUNDER WITH DEEP FORCING EXITING THE AREA. SATURDAY THE THUNDER WAS ALSO KEPT OUT AS THE MEAN H5 RIDGE WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONT STALLED OUT IN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD POPS UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SUNDAY. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. WAA OVER THE FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY...PUSHING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER TOP OF THE REGION. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE TAFS...THERE IS A MULTITUDE OF CIGS HEIGHTS...RANGING FROM UNLIMITED SCATTERED CLOUDS TO IFR. EXPECT ANY CLEAR SPOT TO FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OF THE DAY COMMENCES. THE CIGS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR BY AFTN. BY THEN THERE COULD BE A FEW SHRA AROUND AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SPIRAL PASSES THRU THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...SITES

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