Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 281807
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
207 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
A wave of low pressure traveling along a slow moving frontal
boundary will produce heavy rainfall mainly in southern locations
today and tonight. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Friday when the system will be moving east. Disturbances
in the upper atmosphere may help trigger a few more showers and
thunderstorms in an unstable airmass Saturday and Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Area of moderate to heavy rain continues to push through ne KY and
the Scioto River Valley. Have cancelled the wrn half of the FFA as
the threat of the heavy rain has pushed to the east.
Latest mesoscale models continue to point to only some scattered
convection popping up nw of I-71 this afternoon. Lowered PoPs to
Tweaked highs this afternoon. A little higher in the nw and lower
on the se.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wave of low pressure will be moving east tonight while the front
sags a bit toward the south. Heavy rain will end overnight, but
the chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger mainly over
southern locations close to the boundary.
Thunderstorms chances will persist Friday when another wave of low
pressure is expected to develop to the west along the still
present boundary. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday as the broad and weak area of low pressure pushes toward
Ohio ahead of a digging mid level short wave.
High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to remain a
few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s due to clouds and
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain in close
proximity to the area with a surface front located across the CWA.
This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to the area.
Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east the cold
front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high
temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave
trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as
mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States.
There still remains timing differences on when the high will build
and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Area of steady rain is pushing quickly e of the majority of the
tafs. CMH/LCK could get clipped in the first couple of hours,
temporarily dropping vsbys to MVFR.
The bigger problem is the cigs. MVFR cigs are lingering across the
srn tafs, but a clear spot is trying to work in from Indiana into
Dayton. This is putting a tight gradient on the category change.
Held onto MVFR cigs at CVG/LUK and ILN for the first few hours of
the forecast then went VFR. Still kept a VCSH in the wrn tafs for
late this afternoon.
Looks like the overnight hours could remain dry, but there will
be a chance of fog at the majority of the taf sites. Added some
MVFR stratus as well.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday through Saturday.
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OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ079>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ097>100.