Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161510 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1010 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... OCCLUDED FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST BY AFTERNOON. BEST SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...AM EXPECTING A SLOW DROP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF ENOUGH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT..WILL JUST ALLOW FOR A BRIEF MIX ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN PLACING A STRUNG OUT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ITS STRUGGLES IN DEALING WITH ENERGY SWINGING OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY. AFTER WINDING UP A LOW AND LIFTING IT N INTO THE REGION WITH YESTERDAYS RUN...THE GFS NOW TAKES A QUICK MOVING SHEARED OUT H5 VORT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SPREADS PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION MUCH QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLUTION OF A TAKING A SLOWER A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT IS BACKED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. SO BROUGHT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE WE ARE ON THE EXTREME NRN EDGE..MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME SLEET OR RAIN MIXING IN. AS THE SFC PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W SWINGING THRU WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND WILL PULL PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 30S FOR THURSDAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE 40S FRIDAY WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR WILL WORK BACK IN SATURDAY THRU MONDAY KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS VCNTY KLUK 12Z AND KILN 13Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM KCVG TO KDAY AT 12Z AND SHOULD CLEAR ALL THE TERMINALS BY 14Z AS IT CONTINUE TO MOVE NE. UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT VCSH TILL AROUND NOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE INCONSEQUENTIAL AND HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING MVFR CIGS. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WSW AND GUST TO NEAR 25KT BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAYDU

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