Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 170906 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 406 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...PCPN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE OR FLURRY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE LATEST RAP DOES ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DRIZZLE/FLURRY ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING THIS MORNING WITH READINGS NOW AT OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS OFF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID..ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES COULD SEE A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AND WILL GO AHEAD AND COVER THE THREAT WITH AN SPS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST. DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING CLOUDS POTENTIALLY CLEARING AFTER 15Z. BUT BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING UPSTREAM HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST PESSIMISTIC AND GO WITH THE NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLED WITH TEMPO. ALSO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER SE CANADA AND MOVING ENE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST THAT VCSH HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO ALL TAFS TILL AROUND SUNRISE. THE VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE. NO GOOD WAY TO HANDLE THESE VSBYS IN THE FCST DUE TO THE TEMPO IFR CLOUDS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT. SINCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA HAVE INTRODUCE WIND GUSTS BACK INTO THE TAFS ALTHOUGH AT LOWER SPEEDS THAN YESTERDAY. WEST WINDS AT 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUST 20 KT DURING THE DAY AND W AT 10 KT TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HAYDU

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