Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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042 FXUS61 KILN 291953 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 353 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED TO A CUMULUS LAYER. WHERE THIS HAS HAPPENED IN THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO FEATURE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SOME OF THIS HAS LIFTED TO A CUMULUS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WARMING UP COMPARED TO AREAS ALONG THE OH RIVER WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MORNING TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. A SATURATED AIR MASS SETTING UP TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TO DEVELOP BUT THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED HEATING HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. THUS WILL PUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST. AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING CONTINUES. SOME OF THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS TO 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW CIGS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND AFTERWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHALLENBERGER NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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