Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 282041 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 341 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT LEAST AT THE ONSET IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BEGIN TO DEPART THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MIN TEMPERATURES AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY DECOUPLED VALLEYS IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN FOR SOME OF THIS TO REACHING THE GROUND TOWARD DAWN THAT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES...THOUGH MOST OF THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING TO START THE PERIOD AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY JUST BEGIN AS RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AS THE GFS SATURATES THIS AREA A BIT QUICKER AND THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX AT ONSET THERE AS WELL. THE CHANCES FOR A MIX AT ONSET ARE BETTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE ABLE TO WET BULB AND FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME...BUT THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. IN THIS AREA...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE COLD AND INITIALLY FROZEN OR SNOW COVERED GROUND IN PLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA DUE TO THE RECENT COLDER WEATHER. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND BEFORE MID MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST COULD LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS OF SLICK OR ICY SPOTS ON UNTREATED OR SECONDARY ROADS...BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND WALKWAYS DURING THE MORNING...SO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO INCLUDE THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT STILL A POTENTIAL THREAT. AS FOR THE HWO...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN OR MIX AT ONSET FOR THE SOUTHWEST THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE FA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU EVENING. FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK. FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INITIAL VFR WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z ON THU. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A MID DECK TO FOLLOW...MOVING IN AFTER 9Z ON THU. OUTLOOK...FROM 11Z TO 17Z ON THU...MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SOME AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE 18Z THU THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRI. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS 9Z TO 15Z FRI WITH THE VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION ON THU...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER OR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF LUK AND CVG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...TO MVFR AND THEN TO IFR AND PERHAPS AIRPORT MINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052-054>056-065. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JP

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