Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231058 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 658 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through early next week. This will bring generally dry and warm weather conditions to the region. A slight cooling trend will occur by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Another hot day looks likely this afternoon as mid-level ridging amplifies over the Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures rise to 18/19 degrees C (GFS/ ECMWF respectively) this afternoon with 1000/850 mb thicknesses also climbing to around 1420 m. PWATs also will continue to slowly fall today down towards 1.00". GFS and NAM forecast soundings also show mostly clear skies through the day today. Given the drier air, mostly clear skies, rising thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures have continued thinking that today will be warmer than Friday. Almost all places will likely hit 90 degrees today (minus the southeastern zones) with some locations making it into the low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Tonight into Sunday the mid-level ridge will slowly nudge east as the upper level low that was over the Mountain West ejects. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures nudge downwards a bit so think Sunday highs will be slightly cooler than Saturdays. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An elongated upper level ridge axis in place across the northeast United States on Monday will slowly break down through Wednesday as a trough axis approaches from the west. With a dry airmass in place, will maintain a dry forecast for Monday into Tuesday along with a continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs both days will be into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. The approach of the trough axis for Wednesday into Thursday may be affected with how close Hurricane Maria gets to the east coast so there is some uncertainty as to just how fast the ridge will completely break down. This may also limit how much pcpn is able to make it into our area through the day on Wednesday so will limit pops to just a slight chance and primarily across our northwest for Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will also be a little tricky depending on this timing so will lean toward a model blend with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. The upper level trough will then settle into the region for Thursday into Friday. This will be accompanied by a much cooler airmass with highs on Thursday only in the lower 70s, cooling into the mid to upper 60s by Friday. There will also be some lower end chances for showers, especially across northern portions of our area on Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure remains located northeast of the area this morning. Some patchy river valley fog has also formed with only KLUK not VFR. Any river valley fog will quickly burn off this morning with light northeast winds through the afternoon and clear skies. Sunday morning some more patchy river valley fog will be possible. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

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