Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231959 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 359 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the region tonight and will then move southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday. High pressure will build into the area for Monday night and Tuesday. Drier weather and cooler temperatures will ensue behind the front. As the high moves east of the region on Wednesday, more humid air will return as another frontal system is expected to affect the region by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A trof axis will move southeast across the region this evening. This feature will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The prospect for severe weather along with widespread heavy rain has diminished. Therefore, have cancelled the FFA that was in effect until 8 pm EDT across our southern zones. For the overnight period, the trof will move away to our east while a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. We should at least scatter out the clouds. It is unclear whether stratus may form in our eastern/southeastern CWFA and perhaps across our far northwestern CWFA by morning. It does look like that some fog formation will occur given light winds and plenty of lingering soil moisture and high humidity, so have placed patchy to areas of fog in the forecast. Overnight lows will range from the mid to the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front is expected to move southeast across the region on Monday. Morning fog and/or stratus will be replaced by diurnally driven cumuliform clouds by afternoon. The front should be making its way across our far eastern and southern zones by afternoon. Thus, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of this boundary before it clears our area by Monday evening. Highs on Monday will range from near 80 north to the mid 80s south. By Monday night, as the front moves south away from our area, surface high pressure will begin to build southward into the Great Lakes. This will bring drier air as well as seasonably warm July temperatures by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Building surface high pressure will bring a respite to the Ohio Valley with significantly lower dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. Return flow will set up later in the day Wednesday, with a return to middle and upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the next frontal system. Moisture will pool on southwest winds through Thursday, when lower 70s dewpoints are found ahead of the next cold front. Later in the day Thursday and overnight is when the best chances for the next round of thunderstorms occur with the frontal passage and associated upper level trough. A secondary and stronger upper trough will cross late Friday and early Saturday, but the atmosphere behind the earlier frontal passage will not be receptive to the development of storms and rain chances during this time remains at a relative minima. Temperatures Wednesday will warm to the upper 80s to around 90 in the sunny and dry airmass. Cloud cover should hamper high temperatures on Thursday by a few degrees from Wednesdays highs, with the remainder of the week and Tuesday coming in right around seasonal normals. Overnight lows will be near seasonal normals in the lower 60s as well, with a maxima on Wednesday night in the upper 60s to around 70. Building surface high pressure will bring a respite to the Ohio Valley with significantly lower dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. Return flow will set up later in the day Wednesday, with a return to middle and upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the next frontal system. Moisture will pool on southwest winds through Thursday, when lower 70s dewpoints are found ahead of the next cold front. Later in the day Thursday and overnight is when the best chances for the next round of thunderstorms occur with the frontal passage and associated upper level trough. A secondary and stronger upper trough will cross late Friday and early Saturday, but the atmosphere behind the earlier frontal passage will not be receptive to the development of storms and rain chances during this time remains at a relative minima. Temperatures Wednesday will warm to the upper 80s to around 90 in the sunny and dry airmass. Cloud cover should hamper high temperatures on Thursday by a few degrees from Wednesdays highs, with the remainder of the week and Tuesday coming in right around seasonal normals. Overnight lows will be near seasonal normals in the lower 60s as well, with a maxima on Wednesday night in the upper 60s to around 70. High pressure will build behind the next frontal system at the end of the week for another stretch of days with seasonal temperatures in a comfortable airmass.High pressure will build behind the next frontal system at the end of the week for another stretch of days with seasonal temperatures in a comfortable airmass. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered showers and some MVFR ceilings were occurring over parts of the region early this afternoon. Focus now turns toward a trof axis across northwest Ohio into northern Indiana and whether additional showers/storms develop late this afternoon. That being said, have placed some VCTS/CB descriptors for the KDAY/KCMH/KLCK for late this afternoon/early evening due to the prospects of some scattered convection. Convection farther south now looks to be isolated due to this area being worked over from previous rainfall, and thus it is having a hard time recovering heating wise due to extensive cloud cover. For tonight, trof axis moves southeast as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. We should become at least partly cloudy in between aforementioned systems. As winds become light, along with lingering low level moisture, concern turns toward the potential for stratus and/or fog development. Confidence is higher for at least some MVFR/IFR/LIFR visbilities with lower confidence for stratus formation. Stratus may form southeast of the terminals where moisture will be more adequate in the boundary layer, and then again behind the approaching cold front. On Monday, weak cold front will gradually move southeast across the region. Any morning stratus/fog will lift to scattered to broken cumuliform clouds. It still looks like enough instability will develop in the afternoon for a chance of a shower/storm along and ahead of the cold front, but this should occur mainly south and east of the terminals. Surface high pressure is forecast to build into the Great Lakes and middle Ohio Monday night as the cold front moves away to the south. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Hickman

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