Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271749 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WE ARE SEEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WESTERN OHIO AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA. IN A DEVELOPING CAA PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT ANY BREAKS TO BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE CAA...SOME CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND A BIT OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES TODAY AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND CAA..DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LETTING LOWS DROP TO AROUND 20. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...BUT THE WARMER AIR WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S...SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RESULTS OF SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR BEING USHERED IN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MINIMAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATER SATURDAY ONWARDS...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN BY TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CYCLONIC/CAA LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS INDIANA ARE PUSHING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA ATTM. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A VCSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND A TEMPO PERIOD FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS TO THE WEST HAVE OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO IFR BUT THINK THIS WOULD BE BRIEF SO WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT THIS POINT. WILL HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WE START TO GET INTO SOME WAA. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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