Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 282007 AAA AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington OH 407 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak surface low pressure and a frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the central Ohio Valley through Saturday night. As these features interact with waves of energy aloft and a persistent muggy airmass, showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times through the weekend. High pressure will bring drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Another round of light rain will clip the southeastern part of the ILN CWA this afternoon and push out of the area early this evening. Rainfall rates have not been impressive over the last several hours, and there has been very little if any thunder with this afternoon`s activity. Have therefore opted to cancel the flash flood watch. There have been some pulsy surface-based showers/storms popping up across the region over the past few hours, but the individual cells will not last very long and this diurnal activity is expected to wane towards sunset. Most models have our area dry for the overnight, but the main question will be how much cloud cover will stick around. Satellite shows the clouds starting to thin out across our west, and there is some clearing over Indiana now that will be moving into our west. With abundant low level moisture, there will likely be some stratus that develops overnight. How expansive it may become is still uncertain. If the stratus doesn`t become too prevalent, fog could be an issue, especially for areas that saw rainfall since last night. For now have put patchy fog in the wx grids to account for this possibility, but evening shift will be monitoring. Lows tonight will range from mid 60s north to near 70 in the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Lingering weak surface low and frontal boundary over the region will make for an unsettled weather pattern for Friday and Saturday. As a broad upper trough slides over the Ohio Valley, these surface features will interact with ripples of mid level energy to generate showers and thunderstorms at times. Best chances will be in conjunction with daytime instability both Friday and Saturday. With only weak synoptic forcing and largely unimpressive wind shear, the unorganized convection will be mostly mesoscale driven. Have therefore blanketed the area with chance or slight chance POPs, highest during the peak heating hours both days. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday are forecast to remain a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s due to clouds and precip.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Weak frontal boundary will be moving through on Sunday. Moisture will be limited with this feature and have only a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Monday into Tuesday across the region. Some model solutions are showing a complex of storms working down into portions of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The best chance of precipitation with this appears to be across western portions of the area. There have been some run to run inconsistencies and the GFS is maintaining a dry forecast during this time, therefore limited any precipitation chances to the chance category at this time. The 12z ECMWF has come in drier for Wednesday night into Thursday, which better corresponds with the GFS. Due to this went with a dry forecast to only a slight chance of storms during this time. Better chances of precipitation look to hold off until after the end of the long term period on Friday as a frontal boundary moves through the region. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s with low temperatures in the 60s to around 70.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Area of steady rain is pushing quickly e of the majority of the tafs. CMH/LCK could get clipped in the first couple of hours, temporarily dropping vsbys to MVFR. The bigger problem is the cigs. MVFR cigs are lingering across the srn tafs, but a clear spot is trying to work in from Indiana into Dayton. This is putting a tight gradient on the category change. Held onto MVFR cigs at CVG/LUK and ILN for the first few hours of the forecast then went VFR. Still kept a VCSH in the wrn tafs for late this afternoon. Looks like the overnight hours could remain dry, but there will be a chance of fog at the majority of the taf sites. Added some MVFR stratus as well. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Kurz NEAR TERM...Kurz SHORT TERM...Kurz LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Sites

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