Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250600 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 200 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled pattern will be present across the region through the week. An area of low pressure will meander across the region through Thursday. Multiple systems will then work across the area Friday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... An active night across the forecast area as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms produced flooding across the watch area. This is all thanks to a surface low that is currently located near KDAY/ KCVG. The surface low is forecasted to slowly push east this morning with more development expected across the western and southwestern zones. For this reason have continued the flash flood watch through tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon more showers and isolated convection is expected to develop across the central areas as a weak front pushes through (weak instability shown both on the NAM and GFS). Prev Discussion-> An area of low pressure will move into the region this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms will rotate around this feature. Precipitation may be heavy at times. With low LCLs cannot rule out some tornado potential through the early evening hours. Will continue to mention the severe threat in the HWO and added additional flash flood risk wording across western portions of the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible on Thursday as an area of low pressure meanders across the region. With the cloud cover associated with the low, temperatures will struggle to rise and are only expected to make it into the middle 60s. As the low moves off out of the area precipitation chances will taper off Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level ridging will push east across the region through the day on Friday leading to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. As the ridge pushes east, a developing southwesterly flow pattern will allow for occasional mid level short waves to cross the area through the weekend. This will result in a chance of showers an thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with highs both days in the upper 70s. An upper level low will slowly drop down across the northern Great Lakes through early next week. As it does, some weak energy will rotate around it, bringing some lower chances of precipitation through the rest of the long term period. Temperatures will also cool off a bit with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... H5 low centered nr the OH/IN line will slowly work ewd aft 12Z. As this occurs, rain showers over ern Indiana will rotate around the low. The best chance of showers will occur at CVG/LUK with scattered showers at the other tafs. MVFR vsbys will possible in the showers. Bigger aviation issue will be the IFR ceilings that will wrap back across the tafs. Cigs will rise to MVFR with the heating of the day. As the upper low pulls into the Appalachians tonight, clouds will scatter out across the srn tafs. OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a chance of thunderstorms possible Friday night into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ042-060-070-077. KY...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ089>096. IN...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Haines/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Sites

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