Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 222010 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 410 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A mid-atmospheric disturbance will cross the region early on Wednesday and bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. A warm front will form over the northern Ohio Valley on Thursday and lift northward overnight.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Scattered to isolated showers over the lower Scioto Valley and Hocking Hills will continue to move south and out of the area of concern. They should continue to sprout through daytime heating for the remainder of the daylight hours and rapidly wane with nightfall. An upper level trough will move south through the CWA this late day and early evening as it rotates around the southward-diving closed low aiming towards the Outer Banks tonight. Surface high pressure and a general rise in H5 heights will help keep a dry and clear airmass over the region tonight, permitting low temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to around 50 for one more night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The east coast upper level trough will shift slowly off to the east Monday into Tuesday as mid level ridging over the Central Plains works gradually east toward our area. As it does, surface high pressure will build slowly down from the northwest into our area Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend with highs in the mid 70s for Monday and then around 80 for Tuesday. nighttime lows will drop to the lower 50s monday night with generally clear skies. Tuesday night lows will have their temperature falls hampered by increasing clouds from the system coming in early Wednesday, as well as southerly surface flow pulling in warmer air. Readings should still be in the 50s...possibly around 60 in the northwest where these factors will be found for a longer period of time. Tuesday night will also see an increasing chance for showers, possibly a thunderstorm. This is more likely northwest of the I-71 corridor and specifically north of metropolitan Dayton. Attm, the chances of rain at midnight are minimal, but increase rapidly as daybreak approaches.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees either side of 80. H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night. The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday and Friday. The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a possibility Saturday and Sunday. Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally be in the mid 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper level disturbance will keep some VFR clouds across the area today. These clouds are expected to move out of the region tonight. There will be isolated wind gusts around 20 knots this afternoon however believe they will be isolated and therefore decided to leave out of the TAFs. Winds will decrease this evening and for the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected except for VSBY reductions overnight at KLUK due to river valley fog. Cu will begin to develop late in the TAF period on Monday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Novak

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