Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 021120 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 620 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region today. High pressure will gradually build into the area on Saturday. The high will move east on Sunday while a weak upper level disturbance moves to the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Center of mid level low over southeast Canada will rotate east today. An embedded disturbance rotating on the back side of this system will push southeast into the lower Great Lakes. This feature should be far enough removed from our region to keep any spotty light precipitation just off to our north. Otherwise, an expansive CAA induced stratocumulus deck will persist. Highs will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid level low to our northeast will rotate out to sea on Saturday while a mid level ridge moves east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The mid level ridge will be accompanied by surface high pressure. There are some indications that pesky stratocumulus will try to erode late tonight into Saturday morning. But more often than not, low clouds tend to hold on longer than expected. In either case, considerable high level clouds, then mid level clouds will be pushing through the relatively low amplitude mid level ridge. So, there could be a few peaks of sun on Saturday, but clouds should predominate. Highs on Saturday will again range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Operational models are in fairly decent agreement in terms of the next weather system to affect our region on Sunday. Surface high pressure will move east by Sunday. As this occurs, a fast moving s/wv will push east into the Great Lakes. Overall forcing with this system will be weak. Some isentropic lift will occur with it, spreading light precipitation into our southwest/western zones during the first part of Sunday. Model soundings indicate a dry sub cloud layer at first, so some of this may go into saturating the atmosphere before any precipitation reaches the ground. Depending on how fast precipitation reaches the ground will determine if a a little snow will mix in before it becomes warm enough for mostly light rain for all locations by mid afternoon. This system will be fast moving, and by Sunday night, precipitation will be quickly exiting to the east. Again, mainly rain is expected, except for the far northern zones where a little snow may mix in before ending. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Lows by Monday morning will bottom out mainly in the lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A brief lull in the precipitation will occur through the daytime hours on Monday. The next system will move up from the south Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will generally be in the form of rain with this system as warmer air in drawn in from the south. Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday, much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be possible then on Thursday. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR ceilings will be the main impact for the TAF sites over the next 6 hours or so. A fairly solid deck of clouds at around 2000-2500 feet has developed, and will continue to hang over the TAF sites through the morning. There are a few patches of clouds in the 1500-2000 foot range, so some TEMPO groups have been included in the TAFs to account for this. It is unlikely that the cloud heights will lift much until several hours after sunrise, and the TAFS will indicate prevailing VFR conditions by late morning, but with a chance for some temporary MVFR ceilings into the early afternoon. Westerly winds will remain in place at around 8-10 knots this morning, and will increase slightly by afternoon, with some gusts to around 20 knots possible. There is a very small chance of some flurries this afternoon at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK but with no expected impact to aviation conditions. This will not be included in the forecast. Tonight and into early Saturday morning, there is some chance of clouds dropping back into the MVFR range. While this will not be included in this set of TAFs, MVFR ceilings may need to be introduced if confidence in the scenario increases. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible on Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday, and again on Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.