Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 152344 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 644 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, as high pressure builds into the southeastern states. This will allow for southwesterly winds and gradually warming temperatures through the weekend, with chances for rain on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A wide curved band of stratocumulus clouds is moving through the ILN CWA, roughly along the axis of a weak surface trough. Steep lapse rates underneath the cloud deck (about 2500-3000 feet) have promoted some slightly gusty winds (20-25 knots at most) and a few patches of light snow moving through the area. This is mostly flurries, with visibilities reported by surface observation sites generally at 4SM or above. The overall lack of moisture would point away from any chance of accumulating snow, outside of maybe a tenth or two (at most) in central Ohio over the next couple hours. After the main band of low clouds moves through, a gradual decrease in low level moisture is expected tonight, though some 700mb moisture is expected to advect in on the pivoting NW-to-WNW flow. Persistent SSW surface flow will keep temperatures from falling too far tonight -- likely only a few degrees cooler than current values as of 3PM. Min temps are thus expected to be in the middle to upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... By Saturday morning, mid-level moisture will already be beginning to move northeast of the ILN forecast area, as surface high pressure becomes more established over the southeastern states. As this occurs, mid-level ridging will be moving gradually toward the Ohio Valley, though the ridge will be dampening as it translates eastward. Another round of moderate southwesterly flow will occur, though flow aloft turns quickly to the W and WNW, with a strong/dry inversion near 900mb limiting gust potential into the 15-25 MPH range (mainly Saturday afternoon). Nonetheless, this warm advection will bring a notable upward bump in temperatures on Saturday. There will be a strong temperature gradient across the CWA thanks in part to the departing clouds in the north, but max temps should generally range from the lower 40s (north) to near 50 (south). There will be some return of cirrus (and maybe some mid-level clouds) late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but dry conditions are expected through the end of the short term forecast period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Embedded mid level shortwave to eject northeast across the area and deamplify as it encounters the mean ridge. On Sunday Moisture increases from the sw with this system but with it weakening only expect 1 to 2 tenths of an inch of pcpn. In WAA pattern pcpn will be mainly rain with only a low chance of a mix at the onset. Pcpn diminishes Monday with this feature shifting off to the east. Expect highs on Sunday from 40 to 45 and from the lower 40s northeast to 50 southwest Monday. Shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes and weak front will provide a slight chance of a shower Tuesday. Above normal temperatures to continue Tuesday with highs ranging from the the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south. Model solutions diverge at mid week but will follow continuity and keep forecast dry Wednesday with surface high pressure building into the region. Temperatures close to normal next Wednesday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid/upper 40s south. Models differ on handling next surface low which tracks through the area at the end of the week in split flow regime. Will hold off pcpn until late Thursday afternoon and then increase pops Thursday night with approach of surface front. On the warm side of this system expect Thursdays highs from the upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s southwest. Pcpn to diminish from nw to se late Friday into Friday night in the wake of the front. Pcpn may mix with or change to snow prior to ending. Highs to range from lower 40s nw to the lower 50s se Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ceilings starting out near the 3000 ft threshold for MVFR will begin to lift overnight as high pressure and drier air wedge in from the south. VFR will then continue through the end of the TAF period as low clouds scatter leaving cirrus as sky cover according to model soundings. Winds staying around 10 knots tonight will back to southwest as the high moves in, with gusts to 20 knots Saturday afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Sunday night through Monday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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