Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250301 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1001 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT. SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE. SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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