Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 030049 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 849 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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CONVECTION STILL HOLDING TOGETHER IN THE FAR NORTHERN FCST AREA WHEREAS SOUTHERN STORMS HAVE DIED OUT WITH OUTFLOW OUTRUNNING THE STORMS. EXPECT THE CENTRAL OHIO STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST HIGH THIN COVER. GENERALLY KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER FEATURE COULD HELP CONVECTION LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNALS THAT AN MCS MAY FORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AND IF THIS OCCURS THEN THIS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT FELT THAT IT WARRANTED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL GET TRAPPED IN WEAK FLOW AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A WEAKNESS AMONGST BUILDING HEIGHTS. THUS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES SHOWING ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS FROM DAY TO DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED IN THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WITH THE OUTFLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN STORMS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH...ONLY TAF SITE WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BEFORE 04Z WOULD BE KCMH/KLCK WHERE SOME STOMRS LINGER. VFR MO CLEAR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN KLUK/KILN/KLCK TO GO IFR VSBY WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND KILN/KLCK HAVING HAD AFTERNOON RAINFALL. KLUK SHOULD AGAIN DROP TO LIFR BEFORE/IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNRISE. WITH A SHORTWAVE TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...EXPECT VCTS AGAIN IN THE 18Z- 00Z TIMEFRAME FOR ALL LOCATIONS...THOUGH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN SITES. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JDR

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