Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 021724 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1224 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT AND BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... EVEN WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT...FRESH SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF CWA WILL INHIBIT TEMPS FROM REACHING PREVIOUS GUIDANCE LET ALONE TOP OUT ABOVE IT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS BY 3-5 DEG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT KEPT THEM SIMILAR OVER KY AND SOUTHERN CWA. DECREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS KENTUCKY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BRINGING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BUT SHALLOW COLD DOME WILL REMAIN. SO AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...EXPECT IT TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR WILL START OUT A LITTLE DEEPER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM WITH THE CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION ENDING BY MIDDAY. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE DAY. IN FACT TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IN ADDITION WITH SNOW MELT FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES ADDING TO RUNOFF...FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION MAY MIX IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING UPSTREAM ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AMPLITUDE OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHERE ACTIVE ZONE WILL BE AS DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ECMWF WHICH IS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. FOLLOWING THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AND WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST PRECIPITATION TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS PER THE GFS OR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEING FURTHER NORTH PER THE NAM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE MAY STILL BE PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. AND IF THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW GEFS MEAN AND KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY TO PUMP MOISTURE TO THE REGION. CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN QUICK FASHION DURING THE MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE...SURFACE TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 20S AND QUICKLY SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK IN THE MORNING...A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING AT KDAY AND KCMH. SOUTH WINDS WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT AND HELP THE WARM AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LAG AND ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON CONTACT EVEN WELL AFTER SURFACE TEMPS EXCEED THE 32 DEGREE THRESHOLD. HAVE KEPT ALL TAF SITES AS ZR TOMORROW MORNING AND ONLY CHANGED OVER CVG TOWARDS 18Z AS THEY WILL HAVE HAD AT LEAST 3-4 HOURS OF TEMPS OVER 32. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE RAIN MOVES IN. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO MVFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING...IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND HEAVIER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...FRANKS

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