Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 290908
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
508 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop today along a
slow moving warm front. Drier conditions are expected Sunday when
the warm front is forecast to be near Lake Erie. A strong cold
front accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds will push
through early Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Warm front situated near the Ohio River is the focus for
thunderstorms development. Thunderstorms are resulting from
moisture transported on a 35 knot low level jet lifting over the
front in the presence of multiple mid level short waves. These
thunderstorms are forming in an environment containing little
to no surface based CAPE, while elevated CAPE is near 1000 J/KG.
Torrential rain and isolated damaging wind and large hail have
been occurring with the thunderstorms, which have been training
across the same locations. Radar estimates indicate over 2
inches of rain so far mainly near the Ohio River.
Models suggest the front will be lifting north across the area
today. Expect thunderstorms to continue to develop, and
torrential downpours will persist with the airmass holding 1.6
inches of PWAT. Will keep flash flood watch in effect through
11 am. Based on latest radar and model trends, have expanded
watch in area to include parts of Central Ohio including
Thunderstorms have generally weakened below severe limits early
this morning. However, daytime heating may allow more severe
cells to develop later this morning and this afternoon as
instability rise with daytime heating.
Temperatures will vary notably with respect to frontal position.
Highs are expected to reach the mid 80s far south, the mid 70s
near I-70, and the mid 60s far north.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Warm front will be north of the area near the Great Lakes
tonight through Sunday. Expect only a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms in this weather regime lacking deep moisture and
Southerly breezes in the warm sector will carry warmer
temperatures, with highs in the 80s forecast for all locations.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong cold front extending from well stacked low pressure will
move in from the west late Sunday night through Monday morning.
A band of showers and thunderstorm will develop along the front
and move across the area by Monday afternoon. Strong southwest
winds will usher in cooler temperatures behind the cold front,
with gusts reaching 40 mph Monday afternoon. For Tuesday, high
pressure is forecast to bring dry weather, and gradually
The next low pressure system is forecast to track into the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Thursday, producing the likelihood for
showers. Shower chances will linger Friday under an upper trough
following the surface low.
Expected conditions at the surface and aloft point to a cooling
trend. Near normal highs in the upper 60s Monday will slip to
the lower 60s by Friday under cold advection, clouds and precip.
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Slow moving front is the focus for thunderstorms that will
continue to affect TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are likely to form
with the thunderstorms during the first 12 hours of the forecast
as the front moves north of the Ohio River. Improvement to VFR
is expected during the afternoon as the front lifts to Northern
Ohio carrying thunderstorms with it. Wind direction will vary
with frontal movement, with east winds becoming south by the end
of the forecast.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are
possible Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible
Sunday into Tuesday.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ042-
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-