Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271512 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1112 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Based on latest hrrr model and mesoscale analysis, it appears our forecast area will be in a min in terms of shower/thunderstorm chances this afternoon due to the lack of any significant mid level disturbances and/or low level boundaries. It looks like there could still be a mid to late afternoon pop up shower or storm, but this may be less than 15 percent in terms of measurable precipitation. Have made this adjustment. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are expected this afternoon with warm and humid conditions. highs will be in the mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Appears that some energy from subtropical low that will impact the southeast will shear north into the region over the weekend. This forcing will help provide a better chance for precipitation area wide, especially Saturday into Saturday evening. With the onset of any precipitation potentially earlier in the day along with more cloud cover, expect highs a bit lower than today. There could still be some storms on Sunday in the eastern counties from this sheared energy. But there also could be some showers and storms in the western counties in advance of a weak cold front. Forecast is generally closer to cooler guidance each period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A short wave lifting northeast through the Great Lakes will result in a weak cold front pushing through the area Sunday night into Monday. Upper support is moving away from the area and instability will be decreasing as the front moves in. So chance of precipitation will be diminishing through the evening even with the front moving in. High pressure will build in later Monday and continue to extend across the area on Tuesday. This will result in slightly lower humidity along with little if any chance of rain. A deep trough will develop and then move out of the Plains late in the week. This will bring another cold front into the region with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms along it. Temperatures slightly above normal will persist. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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River valley fog has developed at KLUK. Expect conditions to improve quickly this morning. Elsewhere across the TAF sites expect VFR conditions. Cannot rule out some spotty shower activity at the TAF sites however limited any shower mention to KDAY where there is the better likelihood of precipitation today. Expect some additional river valley fog to develop again tonight at KLUK. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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