Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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024 FXUS61 KILN 051756 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1256 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONLY A MINOR TWEAK OR TWO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. H5 RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SC OUT BY CHICAGO COULD WORK INTO THE NW COUNTIES LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... IN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH SOME WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE DEVELOPING AT AND BELOW ABOUT 800 MB LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS WITH ITS CAA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL LEAN TOWARD MAINLY RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 40S...WARMING A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND COLD TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY). MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH / CLOSED LOW HAS DEPARTED. HOWEVER...TIMING OUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE...AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL BE ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF SNOW DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY STRETCH. WHILE POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW FOR NOW (AROUND 40 PERCENT) DUE TO THESE CONCERNS AND UNCERTAIN TIMING...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF -14C TO -18C APPEAR LIKELY...AND MAX/MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS AROUND 00Z IN THE W AS H8 MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROF/FNT PUSHING ACROSS THE TAF TONIGHT. THE H8 MOISTURE PUSHES E OF THE REGION BETWEEN 06-0Z. SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A DIGGING H5 S/W. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

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