Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161948 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 348 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MILDER AIR WILL RETURN AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH. SKIES WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER WIND/CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SOME FROST WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN PROTECTED AREAS. WILL CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY ACRS THE SOUTH WHERE THE SEASON HAS STARTED. HAVE TAKEN FROST MENTION OUT OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING GRADIENT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY EARLY AND THEN DECREASING AS THE OHIO VALLEY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO PHASE TO OUR WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROF AXIS PIVOTING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS THICKEST ACRS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WIND AROUND 5 KTS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SW. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PIVOT EAST THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING MOISTURE/TIMING WITH THIS WEAK FRONT. MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND FORCING IS VERY WEAK OVER ILN/S FA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS TO CHC IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND THEN ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA AS A COLD FRONT SAGS EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082- 088. KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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