Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271050 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 650 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SINCE IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH NORTHWARD IT WILL ALSO TAKE AWHILE FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TODAY. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FA TODAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACROSS THIS AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTHWARD AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE THUNDER MENTION AT A SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THREATS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A LULL IN ANY RAINFALL WITH AN EASTERLY DRYING WIND ON SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REPEATED PATTERN WILL SEE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE MIDWEST WITH AN EASTERLY ORIENTED WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP STARTING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND CULMINATING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER OHIO. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS ANOTHER S/W MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD TURN OFF ANY RAIN MONDAY. GFS...EUROPEAN...AND HPC GUIDANCE ALL DIFFER BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND SHOULD BE THE WAY THE PATTERN EVOLVES GIVEN H5 ZONAL FLOW. EUROPEAN HOLDS BACK THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY AND HPC GOES EVEN FURTHER WITH KEEPING THE CIRCULATION IN OHIO THROUGH TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND KEPT A COOLER FORECAST UNTIL MON/TUES AS THE CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN WILL OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH A HIGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO GET BACK TO VFR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA TOWARDS 21Z. BUT CHANCE SEEMS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BUT ONCE THIS PASSES EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO IFR FOR THE LATE PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...

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