Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 240536
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
136 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
As precipitation associated with a Great Lakes low stays north of
the area, dry weather is forecast for tonight. The dry pattern is
expected to continue Monday into Wednesday as high pressure builds
from the northwest. Potent low pressure tracking across the Great
Lakes will bring the likelihood for showers Wednesday night and
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Low pressure near northeast Ohio this evening will quickly move
east to a position off the southern New England coast by Monday
morning. A trailing cold front will push southeast through the
region during the early morning hours, followed by a surface
trough. Focused moisture and lift in the form of a fairly decent
low level jet will remain to our northeast near and to the left of
the low track. Mainly clear skies can be expected through the early
morning, eventually giving way to some scattered to perhaps local
broken (central Ohio) stratocumulus in the wake of the surface
Lows will drop into the mid 40s northwest to near 50 far
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure will be near the New England coast Monday
morning, with an extensive area of surface high pressure moving
back in on on northwest upper flow. Dry weather is indicated
Monday through Tuesday night when the high will be shifting slowly
eastward. Though no showers are expected, clouds will increase
Tuesday in isentropic lift well ahead of developing low pressure
over the north central states.
High temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s Monday
will be followed by lows in the mid 30s to around 40 Monday night,
allowing patchy frost to form. Highs Tuesday recovering to the
mid 50s to low 60s will be limited by the cool start and by the
increasing cloud cover.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Numerical model solutions continue to show a progressive mid level
shortwave tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
at mid week. Some timing differences exist with the solutions but
Wednesday night looks to be the best threat for rain and have
continued likely pops then. Wednesday`s high temperatures to range
from the mid 50s north to the upper 60s south. Precipitation to end
from west to east Thursday with highs from the upper 50s north to
the middle 60s south.
Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a
return to dry weather conditions. Highs to range from the upper 50s
north to the mid 60s south.
Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Model solns
showing differences in strength and timing. Have held off any
precipitation until late Saturday night. On warm side of this system
and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect
temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs to
range from the lower 60s far north to the upper 60s south. Will
spread pops across the entire FA Saturday when the low and
associated front is expected to impact the area. Have opted to go
with more progressive solution ending precipitation Sunday but if the
system is slower then pops will be required.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The low pressure that tracked through the Great Lakes region today
is pulling away from the area, which will allow for a trailing
cold front to push south through the terminals over the next
several hours. Winds will veer more west-northwesterly and become
a bit weaker by 12z for the TAF sites.
Model soundings continue to indicate the development of post
frontal stratocu after 09z behind the surface trough moving
through the area. Cloud heights should remain in the MVFR category
with CIG potential being confined to eastern sites of KCMH and
KLCK. There exists the potential that CIGs could briefly approach
IFR at KCMH and KLCK between 10-14z, but lack of confidence on
this potential inhibited inclusion in the TAFs at the present
Throughout the day, surface high pressure will build into the
Great Lakes region, allowing the morning MVFR stratocu to lift to
a FEW/SCT VFR clouds by afternoon. With high pressure settling
into the region, winds are expected to lessen and veer more
north-northeasterly after 00z Tuesday.
Some mid/high clouds will stream in from the west towards the end
of the period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.
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