Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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654 FXUS61 KILN 020823 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 423 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SFC LOW. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL TRY AND SAG SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAXS WILL WORK E UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LEWIS AND SCIOTO COUNTY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER THERE AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. ENDED UP GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION TODAY. WENT A LITTLE HIGH IN SCIOTO AND LEWIS COUNTY. THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN CONTINUES TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN THE FCST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN DROPPING BETTER ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING A CLOSED H5 LOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE FA. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 65 ON TUESDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH. SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO 70 SOUTH. E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSING THE CWA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR AND AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING VSBY DECREASE. LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WORK INTO WESTERN TAF SITES OF KDAY AND KCVG/LUK EARLY THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THERE COULD BE SOME VFR SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION TOWARDS 0Z TONIGHT. IF THE NORTHERLY WIND IS ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ANY OF THE CLOUD COVER MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO A POTENTIAL FOGGY NIGHT OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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