-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 051513
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH
ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST
COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO
REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING
FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON
TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED.

IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE.


PREVIOUS...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA
THIS MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF
INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE
WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS
POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON
THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN
INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS
THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN
1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE
LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER
STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT
WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN
1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE
2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT
THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073-
     074-078>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...