Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 022001 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. ON WATER VAPOR A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RRQ OF THE JET APPEARS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS FOR THE MOST PART SHOW THE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN COMING TOGETHER AS A LINE AND PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING HIGH RES MODELS WEAKEN THE LINE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE PRECIP TO DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE AS ANY CONVECTION HEADING SOUTH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT. GFS SOUNDINGS AND OMEGA FIELDS ALSO SHOW THIS TREND. FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1.2") AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW PLENTIFUL CAPE AND AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES. GIVEN THE TRENDS FROM MOST OTHER MODEL SUITES THINK NAM SOUNDINGS ARE OVER DONE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHEARING OUT. SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.50" WITH CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 3000 TO 4500 J/KG. THE NAM AGAIN IS SHOWING HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND THINK TRUE VALUES WILL BE FAVORING MORE OF THE GFS. SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KTS AND LAPSE RATES LOOK DRY ADIABATIC UP TO 850 MB. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE SPC HAS PUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF THINGS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE JUST OUT OF PHASE ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OVER THE AREA WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST EAST OF THE CWA. A RRQ WILL ALSO SETUP OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE CATCHING ON TO SOME OF THIS. LATEST NCEP AND NSSL WRF SHOWS BEST CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. EVEN THE NAM WITH HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES OVER THE AREA FAVORS THE EASTERN AREA OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED ABOVE... SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE. BEST COVERAGE DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BRING AN END TO THE RAIN. PWATS ALSO FALL QUICKLY TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY TO HANG UP AROUND THE OHIO RIVER.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE STALLED OUT ALONG/NEAR THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE MID-WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY /WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION RIDING ALONG THE FRONT/ FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD A SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED QPF FURTHER SOUTH BUT LATEST 12Z RUN HAS TRENDED NORTH. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT FEEL THE NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA TO REFLECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. AM STARTING TO BECOME CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. AS WE GET CLOSER...WILL HAVE TO PINPOINT DETAILS INCLUDING TRACK/GREATEST TIMING IMPACT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND TRACK OF AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY MAY BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AND THE BRUNT OF A SHORTWAVE ALSO OCCURS TO OUR SOUTH. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ON FRIDAY. FAVORED DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 11Z. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE AT CMH AND LCK WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AT CVG BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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