-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 181104
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
704 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move into Ohio today, bringing a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible Tuesday and Wednesday when the front is
forecast to stall over the region. Dry weather is expected
Thursday with the return of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak cold front extends from the far northwest corner of Ohio,
southwest across Indiana to Southern Illinois. The front is
moving into the less favorable environment of an upper ridge,
which will allow further weakening to occur as the front makes
its way gradually into Ohio today. However, enough moisture and
convergence will persist along the front to produce increasing
clouds, and probably a few showers and thunderstorms that will
mainly affect locations northwest of Dayton. Parts of the
forecast area will see no precip, especially in the southeast,
away from the bulk of the moisture and forcing. Highs reaching
the low to mid 80s will be about 6 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As the weak front moves slowly across Ohio early tonight, it
will outrun much of its mid level support and moisture. This
should allow a lull in shower activity through around Midnight.
For late tonight and Tuesday, a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms will return due to instability under a mid level
short wave arriving from the west and interacting with the
nearly stationary boundary. Because of greater convergence and
lift that is expected along the section of the front extending
into Western Ohio, it appears that western locations will have a
higher chance for precip.

Above normal temperatures will persist, with highs reaching the
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Amplified flow pattern with a mean trof over the west and a ridge
over the Great Lakes. Weak shortwave to undercut the ridge and drop
southeast through the Ohio Valley at mid week. This shortwave
combined with marginal instability will lead to a chance of showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday. The best chance will occur over the
southwest and end during the afternoon as the s/w passes south.

The mid level ridge to strengthen over the Great Lakes late in the
week into next weekend. This ridge will provide subsidence, dry
weather and warm temperatures.

Generally expect highs in the lower and middle 80s through the long
term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Aviation to be affected modestly by a weak front moving into
Ohio. Expect VFR except at LUK and LCK where BR is reducing
visibility again this morning. A few showers may occur by
afternoon in the vicinity of western sites CVG LUK ILN and DAY
that are closer to the front. Went with VCTS at 18z with models
showing CAPE near 1000 J/KG. Otherwise, ceilings are forecast to
stay VFR through the period. Winds will be light from the
south. Showers may move back in Tuesday morning ahead of a short
wave trough, with thunder possible around CVG Tuesday
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio