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000
FXUS61 KILN 082149
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL BRING A LIGHT MIXTURE
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS HAS EXITED. HOWEVER...A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST
AIR WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. WEAK LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER WILL ALLOW
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FREEZING
RAIN ALSO EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT DEEPER. THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE AS
IT COMES IN CONTACT WITH COLD SURFACES. THIS WARRANTS CONTINUATION
OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TRACE ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL
AS EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY TO WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO EXPECTED.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW
FREEZING PRECIP TO BECOME LIQUID IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS READINGS
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING THERE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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PRECIP SHOULD END BY MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

NAM INDICATES A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PROVIDE LIFT. WITH THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A BAND OF SNOW WILL FORM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SPLIT MID LEVEL FLOW WITH NRN STREAM DOMINATING FROM THE NRN PLAINS
THRU THE GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST COAST WITH WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES. MOST FAVORABLE MSTR/LIFT TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FCST WED.

COLD TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS LOWER/MIDDLE 20S NW TO THE LOWER 30S SE.

COLD AIR REINFORCED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR
THURSDAY. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE WEST WHERE SNOW COVER
EXISTS TO NEAR 15 SE. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

A SLIGHT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF SFC HIGH BUILDING SE OF THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF WEAK PERTURBATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE BEST POPS
ACRS THE SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE EXIST. IN WAA PATTERN WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH RAIN ACRS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND CHANGE TO
RAIN FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS STILL
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

MODELS SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE AND THEN TRACKING UP THE EAST
COAST NEXT SUNDAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO RE-DEVELOPING LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED FCST TOWARD COLDER ECMWF SOLN KEEPING
PRECIP ALL SNOW SHOWERS.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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STRONGEST WAA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WAS PIVOTING
NE OUT OF THE TAF REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DEEP MOISTURE
GETS REPLACED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL LACK ICE
NUCLEATION FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR IN THE LIQUID FORM AT SOME POINT
(KCMH/KLCK) BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES BY. KEPT VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS 1SM BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME POCKETS OF 1/2SM OR LESS
DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ON MONDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT LEAST CONTINUING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN