Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271338 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 938 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OHIO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP MID DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. MULTIPLE MODES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DUE TO THIS THERE IS A HIGHER THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ANYWHERE IN THE FA. THERE IS A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCVG THROUGH THE MID MORNING AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS EVENING AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ063>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...LATTO

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