-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 051825
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE S. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE CLOUDS THERE QUITE A BIT. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRAVELING ALONG THE BROAD NW FLOW IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
DRIER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT THE CHC MENTION OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS ALL
THAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS MINOR SNOW EVENT.

UPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE S DUE TO THE ADDED SUNSHINE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EARLY TONIGHT ROUGHLY
ALONG I-70 BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

FOR THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIELD THE AREA FROM
ANY PRECIPITATION AS VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE
SOUTH. DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW HIGHS AVERAGING 40. EXPECT MORE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY...AND
WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION...NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS WEAKER
TREND...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS A BIT AND JUST HANG ON TO SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... YIELDING PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH ANY PCPN AND A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOME CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS BACK A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNTIED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPPING DOWN TOWARD OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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H5 S/W CONTINUES TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING AN AREA OF LIFT INTO THE NRN
TAFS LATE THIS AFTN...BEFORE WEAKENING IT OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLOUDS QUICKLY APPROACHING CMH/LCK...BUT CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF SNOW AT THE NRN TAFS
TO A VCSH. ACROSS THE SRN TAFS...ONLY CI OR AC IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

AFT 03Z THE LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH REALLY FALLS APART AND EXPECT
THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO FALL APART. BY MORNING EXPECT
ONLY SCT CI ACROSS THE TAFS. WITH THAT SAID...THERE WAS AN AREA OF
ST ACROSS KY THIS MORNING. NAM BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AFT 06Z. DID
NOT PUT ANY IFR ST INTO THE TAFS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES