Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 152325 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 725 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW. BY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH THE ILN CWA IN A REGIME OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME INSTABILITY-DRIVEN CUMULUS (WITH FLURRIES EVIDENT ON RADAR FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM HAS BEEN PASSED. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MID EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AT AROUND 06Z...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FROM THE COOL AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...LEADING TO A LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT COMES VERY CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16 ARE AS FOLLOWS: CMH: 22 DEGREES IN 1962/1935 CVG: 24 DEGREES IN 1875 DAY: 23 DEGREES IN 1962 THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE MODEL SPREAD...EASILY SUPPORTING A CONTINUANCE OF THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE AREAS WHERE THAT PROGRAM IS ACTIVE...AND A FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD FROST THROUGHOUT THE ILN CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ILN CWA...IN A GENERALLY-NORTHEAST DIRECTION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FLOW PATTERN THAT ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE CHANGING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WITH SUN AND MIXING (THROUGH AROUND 850MB) EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION NEAR 900MB WILL INCREASE...CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY UNLIKELY...AND FROST POTENTIAL IS IN QUESTION...WITH DRY AIR AND SOME WIND REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME FROST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS...BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA GETTING INTO THE 60S. THOUGH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN GENERAL ONLY SOME PATCHES OR STREAKS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ARE EXPECTED. LATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PICK UP IN STRENGTH...IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...

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