Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290555 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 155 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The Ohio Valley region remains in between low pressure in the upper Mississippi Valley and high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. This will support a chance of showers and thunderstorms at times through Sunday. After a cold front moves through on Sunday evening, drier conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday, with surface high pressure moving into the area. Chances for precipitation will increase again later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Convection is winding down for the night as we lose the daytime heating. Expect holes in the clouds to fill as moisture is pulled north from the tropical system. Lows in the middle to upper 60s still look good for tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sunday is expected to begin with generally dry conditions, with very little overall adjustment to the weather pattern. That will change later in the day, as the troughing over the upper midwest moves northeast, and begins to flatten the east coast ridging into more of a zonal pattern across the Ohio Valley by Monday. As this process occurs, and as the axis of the trough (weak as it may be this far south) moves through, a weak cold front will also move ESE across MI/IN/OH. Neither the air mass change or wind shift with this front will be particularly strong, so the amount of forcing it will provide is definitely worth questioning. Otherwise, ahead of the front, the pattern will remain weakly forced -- probably similar to today (Saturday), with a chance for disorganized storms (generally on the weaker end of the scale) to develop as diurnal heating kicks in. Any chances for stronger storms will probably be limited to areas closer to the front, which based on timing would probably only really include the northwestern section of the ILN forecast area. Shear is not going to improve from current conditions -- 0-6km values of around 20 knots, and much less closer to the ground. Though instability will not be lacking (MLCAPE forecast to be 1200-1800 J/kg on Sunday afternoon), the forcing and shear are too weak to support a significant severe threat, with too low of confidence to even mention in the HWO at this point in the forecast process. Max temps for Sunday were increased slightly ahead of the front, especially in the southeastern CWA, where temperatures today are pushing well into the mid 80s. Expected clouds and possible convection will keep temperatures a little lower in the northwest. The slightly drier air moving in behind the front on Sunday night will allow for min temps in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... In the wake of a weak cold front, high pressure will settle across the region for the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Above normal readings will continue with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s. A mid level trough will be the main weather feature from mid to late week as it slowly progresses from the northern/central Plains to the Great Lakes. We should squeeze out one more dry day Wednesday, with increasing chances for showers/storms late Wednesday night into Thursday as associated surface cold front moves into the region from the west. By Friday, the front will slip south of the Ohio River, with drier conditions moving in behind. Temperatures will cool some due to clouds/precipitation and then eventually some CAA in the wake of the front. For the upcoming weekend, models continue to forecast a long wave trough developing over the western Great Lakes and extending southward into the mid/lower Mississippi River Valley. There are some indications that a weak impulse rotating through the eastern part of this trough axis may bring a chance of showers and storms across our eastern/southern zones on Saturday where mid to upper level lift and deeper moisture will exist. The lower heights and cooler 850 mb temperatures will result in temperatures going below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows in the 55 to 60 degree range. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Precipitation has tapered off across the TAF sites. Have some fog developing overnight across some of the areas that received rainfall yesterday. In addition river valley fog is expected at KLUK. A few light showers will be possible during the early daytime hours on Sunday. Expect any thunderstorm activity to hold off until the afternoon and evening hours. Have some VCTS in across western TAF sites during the afternoon as a weak disturbance moves across the area. This feature becomes not as pronounced as it moves further east. Additional thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening as a cold front moves through. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Novak is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.