Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210607 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 207 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... RADAR SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD AMOUNT OF RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY REPORTING A TRACE. RAIN IS IN RESPONSE TO A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A CORRESPONDING 850 LOW THAT IS TRACKING OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN THE MAIN REASON RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE REMAINED NEAR A TRACE THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SATURATE THOUGH SO AM EXPECTING SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP BY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE RAIN EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE THOUGH WHICH MATCHES CURRENT THINKING PRETTY WELL. HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN THICK OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT COOLING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR NOT WORKING IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THEN CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS WITH IT. BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GET PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN/ SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GENERALLY STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY HIGHS WHERE MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EACH WAVE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AND BECOME ABOVE NORMAL AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH IFR CIGS NOW MATERIALIZING OVER INDIANA...NAM CIG FORECAST OF POTENTIAL IFR VALIDATING SO HAVE INTRODUCED IFR POSSIBILITIES MAINLY NEAR AND PRIOR TO 12Z FOR KDAY/KCVG/KLUK/KILN. WHILE RAINFALL ENDING OVER AREA JUST NOW AS THE CEILINGS ARE LOWERING...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS A POSSIBLE MVFR ISSUE FOR ESPECIALLY THE SITES MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH WITH THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT NO EXPECTING VFR CIGS UNTIL NEAR 16Z WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER 04Z. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JDR

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