Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290706 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 306 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E. BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

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