Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300751 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 351 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SKIES ARE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES PUSHES A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ILN AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN TARGET AREA FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. KEPT THUNDER OUT AS MODELS SHOW A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY FROM ABOUT 7000 TO 11000 FT ASL. SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FARTHER FROM THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARDER THAN AVERAGE TO FORECAST DUE TO THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...UP TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. FOR THURSDAY...VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS TO COME IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODELS. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THURSDAY WHEN WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS REGIME SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE LKLY ESPECIALLY ACRS KLUK AND KILN. HAVE LIMITED VSBY RESTRICTION TO MVFR AT KILN WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK. UPPER LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THRU ILN/S AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL VFR CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. HAVE COVERED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MENTION OF VCSH. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACRS KCMH/KLCK DURG THE AFTN. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY OR KILN BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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