Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270827 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 427 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS MAY TRY TO MOVE A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. IN EITHER CASE...ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...ANY REMAINING STRATUS SHOULD THIN AND MIX OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. FOR LATER TODAY...FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD A MID LEVEL S/WV WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE IN ROADS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD ACHIEVE MODERATE MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW END MODERATE SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD GIVE SOME ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN BASED ON THE FRONT ENTERING OUR NWRN ZONES AND LIFT FROM THE S/WV WOULD BE IN OUR NW. HOWEVER...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/CAMS ARE THROWING A CURVE BALL IN THAT THERE MAY BE A PREFRONTAL TROF ENTERING THE REMAINDER OF THE NE TO SW CWFA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV (FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOW PUSHING TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY) TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION AND POSSIBLY POINTS DOWNSTREAM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NW WHERE AGREEMENT IS HIGH FOR THE BEST DYNAMICS AND 30 TO 40 POPS TOWARD THE TRI- STATE REGION. THE LOWEST POPS WILL BE IN OUR FAR SE ZONES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS DILIGENTLY PLACED A GOOD PART OF OUR CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE BOTH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IT WILL BE WARM AND MODESTLY HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED. AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH. WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HATZOS

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