Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 030559 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 159 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN A MOIST...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S. SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BROAD H5 TROF CONTINUES TO SEND SHEARED WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS HAVE RETREATED BACK TO THE NW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DESK IS NOW ONLY AFFECTING KDAY. OTHER TAFS HAVE BROKEN OUT TO A VFR DECK. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP...THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS WILL BE VFR THROUGH SUNRISE. CANT RULE OUT SOME STRAY MVFR CIGS GOING THROUGH...SO CARRIED SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS. KDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...STAYING MVFR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE...DIURNAL HEATING WILL MIX ANY MVFR CIG UP TO VFR. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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