Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 291428
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
928 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016
Upper level shortwave rapidly exiting north of the region is
ushering in drier air from the southwest today and tonight. A baroclinic
zone will develop south-southeast of the region tonight. Showers
will develop overnight from central Tennessee to eastern Kentucky
and move northeastward into southern Ohio by daybreak Wednesday.
Most of the rain will fall southeast of the I-71 corridor and then
colder air will enter in Wednesday evening behind a cold front.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --The frontal boundary has pushed well off to our east this morning
and with some drier ir moving in behind, a fair amount of
sunshine has developed across our area this morning. We will
remain in southerly low level flow through this afternoon ahead
of a developing low pressure system that will begin to lift out of
the lower Mississippi Valley late in the day. This will lead to an
increase in clouds across at least the western portions of our fa
through the afternoon hours. However, the combination of the
southerly flow and at least some sunshine should allow for
temperatures to work up into the 60s through the afternoon hours.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight, additional short wave energy and moisture arriving on a
southwest flow aloft will bring showers back into the picture,
continuing into early Wednesday when the surface low is forecast
to strengthen again over the eastern Great Lakes. A baroclinic
zone will set up south of the region and nose into southern Ohio
by daybreak Wednesday. The main concentration of showers should
be over southeast counties, where up to another inch of rain
The increased cloud cover tonight and continued southerly wind
will keep a milder airmass in the region with lows only dropping
to within a few degrees of 50.
Slightly cooler highs are expected on Wednesday from the mid 50s
to low 60s under more cloud cover and weak neutral temperature
advection. On Wednesday evening, winds will shift westerly and
permit colder air and a more significant cloud deck to move in
from the northwest. Lows in the mid 30s Wednesday night and
following cold air and clouds Thursday will limit highs on this
day to the lower 40s. Overnight lows in continued cold advection
will drop into the low 30s by daybreak Friday. Temperatures Friday
will be similar to Thursday with significant cloud cover in the
north closest to the cold pool.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure over southwest Ontario will keep a cool cyclonic flow
across the region for the beginning of the period. Should be quite a
bit of cloud cover, but chance of measurable precipitation looks
quite low. High pressure will build in Saturday.
12Z GFS and ECMWF continue to show stark differences in solutions
heading into early next week. The GFS is still cutting off a low in
the Baja area which allows for weak fast-moving northern stream
energy to predominate. Meanwhile the ECMWF remains progressive out
west and then closes off a low as it heads into the Ohio Valley. At
this point opted to maintain forecast continuity which goes along
with the WPC forecast and side closer to the GFS solution. Thus
forecast has a chance of light precipitation on Sunday as a quick-
moving short wave passes through the area. Depending on timing,
there could be some snow with this before changing over to rain.
Monday should be dry with high pressure reasserting itself.
Highs will be at or slightly below normal while lows will be at or
slightly above normal through the period.
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pcpn has come to an end, as it has been shunted east by a cdfnt
which is part of a large wrapped up system. Other than a few
patches of lingering MVFR cigs, VFR conditions are the rule. The
latest satellite loop is showing that the MVFR cigs could affect
ILN and CMH/LCK in the first couple hour of the tafs, so have
included a tempo group to cover this.
For rest the daylight hours the tafs should experience VFR
conditions as the region is caught between two systems. The
second system will lift out of the lower MS valley this evening
and will spread clouds and pcpn across the tafs. The lower clouds
and pcpn will reach the srn tafs towards 06Z. MVFR cigs and vsbys
will be possible as the system taps gulf moisture again, but the
deepest moisture will affect area just to the south and east of
I-71, so the tafs will not see the worst of the conditions.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday.