Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301806 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 206 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REFIRE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY... KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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