Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 240033
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
833 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
High pressure will build into the region over the next couple
of days, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend through
mid week. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday
night into Thursday bringing the next chance for precipitation.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Precipitation is having a tough time making much of a
northward push into our fa this afternoon with perhaps just a
few sprinkles sneaking into far southern Lewis County. The
bigger impact has been the clouds as a fairly thick cirrus
shield has overspread most of our area with some decent
enhancement now showing up on the IR satellite images. This has
resulted in mostly cloudy skies and has helped keep the
temperatures down several degrees across our southern areas.
These clouds will likely persist into the overnight hours as the
models continue to indicate some high level moisture spinning
northward around the upper level low dropping down into the
southeastern United States. This may have a minor
moderating influence on temps overnight and will range lows
from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. The
models continue to have some light pcpn pushing up into our far
southeast through the overnight hours. This may be overdone
given the trends so will just carry a slight chance for showers
across our extreme southeast.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will continue to shift off to the southeast
on Monday to just off the southeast coast through Monday night.
It looks like a weak inverted trough may hang back across the
Tennessee Valley possibly extending up toward the mid Ohio
Valley. This will allow for the low level flow to become more
east southeasterly through the day on Monday, leading to some
850 mb moisture advection up into at least our southern areas.
This will likely lead to an increase in some lower level clouds
as we progress through the day. Highs on Monday will be somewhat
dependent on the amount of cloudiness, but generally expect
highs in the upper 60s to around 70.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For Tuesday and Wednesday, the area will be under a dry
southerly flow between slow moving areas of low pressure located
to the east and west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday night and Thursday when a cold front is forecast to
swing through from the west. Western locations should see more a
favorable environment for precip, with eastern sites having
lower pops as the front moves into less conducive conditions
The front may then stall south of the Ohio River Friday, before
lifting back toward the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will persist in the moisture, instability,
and convergence associated with the front.
Warm temperatures will be the rule in a regime featuring above
normal geopotential heights, though readings will vary somewhat with
respect to frontal position. Highs in the mid 70s Tuesday will
increase to the low 80s Wednesday under warm advection ahead of the
cold front. A retreat back to the low 70s Thursday due to frontal
passage will be followed by a rebound back to around 80 by next
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.
Elongated upper low over the TN VLY to continue to drift slowly
south through Monday. Thick cirrus shield across the TAF sites
will thin out late tonight. Low level moisture will begin to
increase Monday afternoon as low level flow veers to the
southeast. Expect these clouds to be around 5000 feet.
Northeast winds at 10 kts or less will become east Monday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs will be possible on Thursday along with a
chance of thunderstorms.