Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300141 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 941 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER OHIO.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHILE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY RECEDE NORTH. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY 6 AM...WITH PRECIP HOLDING OFF. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH UP THE LOW AND MID 50S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MORNING TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. A SATURATED AIR MASS SETTING UP TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TO DEVELOP BUT THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED HEATING HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. THUS WILL PUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST. AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STARTING OUT VFR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL CHANGE ON SATURDAY WHEN A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ENTERING ILLINOIS. WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THUNDER WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO THE IFR RANGE...AND CEILINGS MVFR. EAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AT CVG AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR CIRCULATES AROUND THE LOW ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS INDICATE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW IFR TO PERSIST. OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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