Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290833 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 433 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING ALLOWING A WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FA. WITH THE APPROACH OF AN H5 S/W SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES...THERE WILL BE ENUF INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL VALUES TODAY AS HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE H5 S/W IS FCST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT SWINGS N OF THE FA. MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LINGERING WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KLUK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION...EVEN AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE REGION IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT THERE IS NOT ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE THAT THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP TO DEFINITIVELY SAY WHEN OR WHERE THEY MAY OCCUR. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE VFR SHOWERS AT KCVG/KLUK TOWARDS 6Z. THE VFR SHOWERS AT KDAY AND KILN IN THE LATE DAY WITH VICINITY AFTER 0Z. SIMILAR AT KCMH/KLCK WITH VC STARTING AT 22Z. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO <5KT AFTER ABOUT 0Z AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...FRANKS

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