Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141546 AAC AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington OH Issued by National Weather Service JACKSON KY 1046 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure in central Ohio will move northeast this evening. Southerly flow will bring in warmer air and more moisture, eventually getting wrung out as showers with the next cold frontal passage on Wednesday. High pressure will build back in the Midwest on Thursday and cross the region Thursday night. Another cold front will approach the Ohio Valley Friday and eventually bringing with it a good chance of rain by late or Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Clouds have pretty much cleared off across the area this morning, leaving mainly sunny skies. However in weak low level CAA some cu redevelopment in CMH/Columbus vicinity and some stratocu or cu development near the OH River/CVG/Northern KY area. Highs today will generally be in the mid 40s far north to around 50 near the OH River and northern KY. For the bulk of the area temperatures should top out in the upper 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Southeast flow this evening will turn southerly tonight and increase early Wednesday. An upper level trough moving east from the Great Plains becomes negatively tilted over western Michigan Wednesday afternoon. This will help squeeze the air over northwest Ohio with a good 50kt+ h8 jet setting up, providing an efficient moisture transport with showers developing over Indiana in the morning and moving into Ohio in the afternoon. The upper trough becomes broad as the bulk of the energy remains north of the region by late day. The area of showers along the IN/OH border will become more broad and move to eastern Ohio by late day. Winds shift westerly on the back side of the rain, and then become northwest later overnight as the upper trough axis crosses and flow at this level becomes northwest. Drier air at the surface will quickly end any showers early Wednesday evening. Temperatures in the east tonight will drop to around 30 with less cloud cover. Western portions of the CWA will see increased clouds and a slightly warmer overnight low near 35. Highs on Wednesday will be muted in the northwest with clouds - generally in the upper 40s, where the southeast will see some sun and get the southerly flow to help readings reach the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Thursday will see a strong high pressure system move to the OH/IN region from the Midwest by nightfall, and then be east of the area by daybreak Friday. At this time, southerly flow will set up ahead of the next system. Temperatures in the mid to upper 40s Thursday will warm into the 50s on Friday. Friday night will have a strong cold front cross the region with its associated showers, ending during the day Saturday. Northwest flow behind the system will bring a possibility of some wrap- around snow showers on Sunday, primarily north of the I-70 corridor and without any accumulation expected. Saturday highs in the lower 50s will be a stark contrast to the 30s that will be found on Sunday in the strong northwest flow behind the front. Monday will moderate somewhat but still see readings within a few degrees of 40. Overnight lows around freezing Thursday night will warm to the middle and upper 40s Friday night in the southerly flow ahead of the front. Behind the front, they will cool to the upper 20s Saturday night and then drop to the mid 20s Sunday night - the coolest point in the forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Area of stratus that lingered around the Ohio River all night has dissipated over the past couple of hours in the CVG/LUK vicinity though some moisture remains trapped around 3KT AGL so some few or sct thin stratocu near or just below 3KFT AGL will be possible through the day. A band of VFR stratus northeast of CMH could expand southwest or move into CMH after 1630Z but this deck may just be scattered due to mixing. This could expand down into CMH for a few hours this morning, so have a tempo group. Models continue to bring in an increase in H3 moisture around 21Z this afternoon, so brought in a broken deck of cirrus to coincide with slackening winds with loss of daytime heating. The cirrus will linger overnight and a few mid clouds/ac may move through from time to time 03Z to 122Z. For the 30 hour CVG taf, expect the pcpn and threat for MVFR CIGS to hold off until the next full package at 18Z. Some AC is anticipated to work in around or just before 15Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible Wednesday/Wednesday evening and again Friday night into Saturday evening.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR/Sites/JP NEAR TERM...AR/JP SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Franks/JP

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