Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180131 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 931 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach the region tonight and stall in western Ohio on Monday and weaken. Another weak cold front will push into the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A broken line of showers ahead of a weak front across central Indiana has been pushing slowly east and weakening this evening. Hi res models are in general agreement that these will continue to fall apart as they push east toward our area through late evening. However, as the frontal boundary continues slowly east through the night, it will be tough to rule out a few showers across our west late tonight. This will also lead to an increase in mid and high level clouds from the west overnight. This will help keep temperatures a little warmer across the west with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the east to the lower 60s in the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will slide into western counties on Monday and stall. Looks like this will provide enough focus for some showers and thunderstorms to develop along it, particularly in the afternoon. The chance of rain will diminish Monday night due to the diurnal decrease in instability and continued weakening of the boundary. Cold front will continue to weaken tonight through Monday as it moves into a less favorable airmass over Northwest Ohio. There still may be enough moisture and instability to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, with best precip chances confined mainly to counties northwest of Dayton. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the low 80s can be expected. Temperatures will be above normal with MOS guidance looking reasonable. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fairly weak shortwave and its associated frontal boundary approach the region Tuesday morning bringing in a chance for showers and enough instability for afternoon thunderstorms in particularly the western and northwest forecast area. Weak surface high and upper ridging to the south of forecast area should generally keep the deeper moisture and most favorable instability to the west, so only kept slight chances in this area where any showers and a stray thunderstorm should be spotty at best. For Wednesday, continued chances of primarily early afternoon activity. While shortwave continues to push through the area, weakening trend as it pushes into the ridge to the south. Strong ridging works into the region for the remainder of the week and will likely bring in above normal temperatures with 850 temps at +15-17C, so have bumped up temperatures slightly from model solutions, but could even be higher for the latter part of the week. Highs mid 80s through much of the forecast area expected. With these temperatures comes increased instability for isolated thunderstorms in especially the far southern forecast area, but have kept dry for now. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly clear skies across the area should persist into this evening but some mid and high level clouds may begin to work in from the west later tonight. This may mitigate fog development somewhat across at least the west so expect the best river valley fog to be across our southeast. That being said, will still allow for some mvfr to possibly IFR vsby restriction at KLUK and KLCK. Otherwise, a weak front will slowly push in from the west through the day on Monday. This will lead to some scattered shower and thunderstorm development as we head into the afternoon. At this point, will cover the threat with just a VCSH at the western TAF sites. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...JGL

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