Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 231432
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1032 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
An area of upper level low pressure will move slowly eastward across
the southeastern states on Sunday. Dry high pressure will remain in
place across the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. A
gradual warming trend will begin going into the new week, before a
cold front moves into the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --The upper level low will continue to drift slowly southeast
across the Tennessee Valley through this afternoon. Widespread
rain ahead of the low across eastern Kentucky has been spreading
slowly northward but having a tough time making it into our area
as it encounters some drier air. That being said, with it only
about a tier of counties away, will allow for some lower chance
pops across our far southeast heading into this afternoon. Some
vanguard clouds will also continue to spread northwestward
across at least the southeast half of our area through the day.
This combined with cool northeasterly low level flow will help
limit temperatures somewhat across our southeast. Will range
highs from near 60 across the southeast to the mid 60s
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Outside of the off chance of a light shower in the southeastern
CWA this evening, a dry forecast is expected through the rest of
the short term forecast period. Clear skies overnight will allow
for another round of cool temperatures by Monday morning, though
the warmer starting point and continued wind (5-10 knots) will
keep the risk of frost very marginal.
By Monday morning, an expansive area of dry surface high
pressure will stretch from northern Ontario/Quebec through the
Great Lakes, extending SSW through the northwestern Ohio Valley
and into eastern Texas. As this high gradually weakens, wind
flow will begin a clockwise shift in the Ohio Valley, especially
aloft. On the northern periphery of the upper low moving into
the Carolinas, 850mb-700mb theta-e advection will become
pronounced by Monday afternoon, allowing for an increase in
mid-level moisture and clouds during the day. With little change
to the boundary layer air mass, temperatures are unlikely to
gain significantly from Sunday to Monday, but another day of sun
(especially early in the day) will allow for slightly warmer
conditions (particularly in the western CWA).
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With the upper level low now slower and inland than previously
forecast, systems have slowed down for the immediate long term.
For Monday night into Tuesday, some clouds will rotate westward
into the region from slow moving upper level low to our east. A
modifying airmass will still boost temperatures into the mid and
upper 70s on Tuesday.
Next piece of s/wv energy to eject out of a long wave trough
(from the Pacific NW to the southern Plains to the western
Great Lakes) is now expected to affect the region Wednesday
night into Thursday. With a dry Wednesday and southerly flow,
highs on Wednesday should warm into the lower perhaps mid 80s.
The threat for showers and storms is now forecast for Wednesday
night into Thursday as aforementioned s/wv moves through our
region along with a surface cold front.
Have been waiting for the models to come into better agreement
by weeks end and into next weekend. Unfortunately, there
continues to be considerable disagreement on how far east/south
mid weeks cold front will get and how fast it will return as a
warm front. The uncertainty calls for a very broad brushed
forecast, keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms going
through this period. Temperatures will remain warm with mainly
70s and perhaps a few lower 80s in our southeast CWFA.
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Skies remain generally clear over the region, with mostly clear
skies expected through the majority of the TAF period, with some
cirrus at times. A few bands of low/mid clouds over Kentucky
have been moving slowly north early this morning, but even if
they make it into Cincinnati, it would only be for a brief
period of time. A more notable increase in mid-level cloud cover
is expected to occur just beyond the end of the TAF period.
Winds will remain out of the NE through the TAF period, with
sustained winds of 5-10 knots, gusting to 15-20 knots during the
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.