Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201803 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 203 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will move along a frontal boundary today. The frontal boundary will push through the region and cooler air will move into the area for the start of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level shortwave over the mid/upr MS Valley to sharpen up and shift east through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours. Associated surface wave over western KY to lift northeast through the Ohio Valley this aftn to a position over Western PA by evening. As the wave moves in precipitation will become widespread. Marginal instby to develop over ILN/s se counties where a window for potential severe weather will exist this afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. Heavy rain and flooding is also possible. A wide range of temperatures today with the low bisecting the area. Highs will range from near 60 nw to the upper 70s southeast. Previous Discussion... An area of low pressure will move across the region today. Northwest of this low more stratiform rain is expected. To the southeast of the low thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds and hail will be possible. Cannot rule out a tornado as well especially close to the low as it moves across eastern portions of the area. As the low moves off to the northeast cooler air will filter into the region and winds will pick up. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A strong upper level trough will move through tonight into Friday. This will linger precipitation around the region through this time before gradually moving it out. In addition gusty winds will also be present during this time. A few lake effect rain showers will be possible Friday evening as well. Some clouds and winds will be present Friday night so although temperatures will drop into the 30s across the area believe that frost will be minimal. Due to this did not include in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will only be in the low to mid 50s Friday and Saturday. Went close to guidance for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday another shortwave will dive south and rotate around the upper level low over Quebec with a weak surface cold front pushing through the area Monday morning. The ECMWF is more progressive with the shortwave and surface cold front while the CMC and GFS is about 6 - 12 hours slower. Either way the better upper level forcing (PVA) all slides east of the area with PWATs remaining around or below 0.75". Due to the mentioned above have kept the area dry Monday into Tuesday. As of now the cold front also looks rather weak across our area. The upper level trough axis remains east of the region keeping the heart of the coldest air east as well. Towards the end of the long term mid-level heights will start to rise across Ohio (576-580 dam). This will equate to rising high temperatures and above normal temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A wave of low pressure will lift northeast from the mid MS VLY through the Ohio Valley today. Widespread rain showers will overspread all TAF sites this afternoon with prevailing MVFR conditions and occasional IFR conditions. The low pressure system and associated cold front will progress east during the late afternoon with more precipitation working in behind the front. Widespread IFR conditions will develop behind the front. Northwest winds will strengthen and gust at times up to 22 kts. IFR CIGS will prevail through most of the night. Precipitation will become light overnight before ending toward sunrise with visibilities improving. Ceilings will lift to MVFR by late morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak/AR SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.