Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291804 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 104 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level shortwave rapidly exiting north of the region is ushering in drier air from the southwest today and tonight. A baroclinic zone will develop south-southeast of the region tonight. Showers will develop overnight from central Tennessee to eastern Kentucky and move northeastward into southern Ohio by daybreak Wednesday. Most of the rain will fall southeast of the I-71 corridor and then colder air will enter in Wednesday evening behind a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The frontal boundary has pushed well off to our east this morning and with some drier ir moving in behind, a fair amount of sunshine has developed across our area this morning. We will remain in southerly low level flow through this afternoon ahead of a developing low pressure system that will begin to lift out of the lower Mississippi Valley late in the day. This will lead to an increase in clouds across at least the western portions of our fa through the afternoon hours. However, the combination of the southerly flow and at least some sunshine should allow for temperatures to work up into the 60s through the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tonight, additional short wave energy and moisture arriving on a southwest flow aloft will bring showers back into the picture, continuing into early Wednesday when the surface low is forecast to strengthen again over the eastern Great Lakes. A baroclinic zone will set up south of the region and nose into southern Ohio by daybreak Wednesday. The main concentration of showers should be over southeast counties, where up to another inch of rain could fall. The increased cloud cover tonight and continued southerly wind will keep a milder airmass in the region with lows only dropping to within a few degrees of 50. Slightly cooler highs are expected on Wednesday from the mid 50s to low 60s under more cloud cover and weak neutral temperature advection. On Wednesday evening, winds will shift westerly and permit colder air and a more significant cloud deck to move in from the northwest. Lows in the mid 30s Wednesday night and following cold air and clouds Thursday will limit highs on this day to the lower 40s. Overnight lows in continued cold advection will drop into the low 30s by daybreak Friday. Temperatures Friday will be similar to Thursday with significant cloud cover in the north closest to the cold pool. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure over southwest Ontario will keep a cool cyclonic flow across the region for the beginning of the period. Should be quite a bit of cloud cover, but chance of measurable precipitation looks quite low. High pressure will build in Saturday. 12Z GFS and ECMWF continue to show stark differences in solutions heading into early next week. The GFS is still cutting off a low in the Baja area which allows for weak fast-moving northern stream energy to predominate. Meanwhile the ECMWF remains progressive out west and then closes off a low as it heads into the Ohio Valley. At this point opted to maintain forecast continuity which goes along with the WPC forecast and side closer to the GFS solution. Thus forecast has a chance of light precipitation on Sunday as a quick- moving short wave passes through the area. Depending on timing, there could be some snow with this before changing over to rain. Monday should be dry with high pressure reasserting itself. Highs will be at or slightly below normal while lows will be at or slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Some scattered to broken MVFR cu developed through late morning but this has been eroding away in the developing low level WAA pattern. Otherwise, expect mainly just some mid to high level cloudiness through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening. A developing low pressure system will lift out of the lower Mississippi Valley and into the upper Ohio Valley tonight into Wednesday morning. This will allow for rain to develop after midnight tonight and then overspread the TAF sites through the early morning hours. As it does, cigs will lower into MVFR and possibly IFR category through the pre dawn hours and then linger through much of the morning hours on Wednesday. As the low pushes off to the east, precipitation will taper off toward the end of the TAF period but MVFR cigs will likely linger through the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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