Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271144 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 644 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...

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