Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191940 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 340 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances will bring chances for precipitation to the region off and on through Thursday. A better chance for precipitation will occur on Friday as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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An embedded weather disturbance was interacting with an unstable airmass this afternoon, resulting in some showers and embedded thunderstorms. As this disturbance moves east this evening, and as the airmass stabilizes, precipitation should come to an end. Skies will then clear as a weak surface ridge moves into the Ohio Valley. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Another embedded weather disturbance within a large scale mid level trough across the Great Lakes will affect northern sections of the CWFA late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thus, will continue with a chance of showers/storms there during this time frame. Otherwise, a good portion of Tuesday will be dry along with temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. A remnant boundary/trough axis will settle across the northern forecast area later Tuesday night. By then, forcing and instability will have waned that skies will range from partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s once again.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A weak upper trough will pass north of the region Wednesday and meet a relatively unreceptive airmass to create showers. Attm, they are isolated at best and generally expected to be light. High pressure will then keep the region dry until later Thursday as moisture gets pulled into the region from the south and wrung out along a front in the Great Lakes area. Even the chances on this day are marginal at best but warm frontal processes will necessitate chance pops in the northeast late in the day. Beyond Thursday the chances for storms will increase and maximize on Friday and Friday night, lingering into Saturday as a southern upper low moves northeast and the surface cold front dives south. The cold front should push any lingering storms along it south and away from the CWA by Saturday night and high pressure will build back in with some instability showers or thunderstorms possible Sunday, much like todays weather. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday and maximize a few degrees above normal on Thursday. They will then drop into the 70s for Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows in the 60s for most nights will be maximized near 70 Thursday night.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An embedded disturbance will move east across northern Indiana and northern Ohio this afternoon and this evening. The lift from this feature will trigger some showers and thunderstorms, most numerous near the northern terminals of KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK. Have placed TEMPO MVFR conditions at these three sites. The threat rapidly decreases south of the Ohio River. With the loss of day time heating, and with this disturbance moving away from our region, showers/storms will wane this evening. Skies will gradually clear overnight. On Tuesday, another embedded disturbance is forecast to rotate southeast toward the area. This feature is slower than previous forecasts, so the terminals are expected to stay dry through 00Z. Scattered diurnal cumulus can be expected. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday night through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Hickman

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