Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231432 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1032 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of upper level low pressure will move slowly eastward across the southeastern states on Sunday. Dry high pressure will remain in place across the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. A gradual warming trend will begin going into the new week, before a cold front moves into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The upper level low will continue to drift slowly southeast across the Tennessee Valley through this afternoon. Widespread rain ahead of the low across eastern Kentucky has been spreading slowly northward but having a tough time making it into our area as it encounters some drier air. That being said, with it only about a tier of counties away, will allow for some lower chance pops across our far southeast heading into this afternoon. Some vanguard clouds will also continue to spread northwestward across at least the southeast half of our area through the day. This combined with cool northeasterly low level flow will help limit temperatures somewhat across our southeast. Will range highs from near 60 across the southeast to the mid 60s northwest.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Outside of the off chance of a light shower in the southeastern CWA this evening, a dry forecast is expected through the rest of the short term forecast period. Clear skies overnight will allow for another round of cool temperatures by Monday morning, though the warmer starting point and continued wind (5-10 knots) will keep the risk of frost very marginal. By Monday morning, an expansive area of dry surface high pressure will stretch from northern Ontario/Quebec through the Great Lakes, extending SSW through the northwestern Ohio Valley and into eastern Texas. As this high gradually weakens, wind flow will begin a clockwise shift in the Ohio Valley, especially aloft. On the northern periphery of the upper low moving into the Carolinas, 850mb-700mb theta-e advection will become pronounced by Monday afternoon, allowing for an increase in mid-level moisture and clouds during the day. With little change to the boundary layer air mass, temperatures are unlikely to gain significantly from Sunday to Monday, but another day of sun (especially early in the day) will allow for slightly warmer conditions (particularly in the western CWA). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... With the upper level low now slower and inland than previously forecast, systems have slowed down for the immediate long term. For Monday night into Tuesday, some clouds will rotate westward into the region from slow moving upper level low to our east. A modifying airmass will still boost temperatures into the mid and upper 70s on Tuesday. Next piece of s/wv energy to eject out of a long wave trough (from the Pacific NW to the southern Plains to the western Great Lakes) is now expected to affect the region Wednesday night into Thursday. With a dry Wednesday and southerly flow, highs on Wednesday should warm into the lower perhaps mid 80s. The threat for showers and storms is now forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday as aforementioned s/wv moves through our region along with a surface cold front. Have been waiting for the models to come into better agreement by weeks end and into next weekend. Unfortunately, there continues to be considerable disagreement on how far east/south mid weeks cold front will get and how fast it will return as a warm front. The uncertainty calls for a very broad brushed forecast, keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms going through this period. Temperatures will remain warm with mainly 70s and perhaps a few lower 80s in our southeast CWFA. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Skies remain generally clear over the region, with mostly clear skies expected through the majority of the TAF period, with some cirrus at times. A few bands of low/mid clouds over Kentucky have been moving slowly north early this morning, but even if they make it into Cincinnati, it would only be for a brief period of time. A more notable increase in mid-level cloud cover is expected to occur just beyond the end of the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the NE through the TAF period, with sustained winds of 5-10 knots, gusting to 15-20 knots during the afternoon today. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hatzos

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