Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 222002 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 402 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR I-70 WILL PASS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL OHIO ALONG THE BOUNDARY. COULD STILL SEEM SOME ACTIVITY IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE MUCH IF ANY INFLUENCE ON DIURNAL COOLING. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE BUILDING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. DEW POINTS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS BUT UNDERCUT IT SLIGHTLY FOR LOWS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME LEADING TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. DUE TO THIS HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CU HAS STARTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO THE AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH FORCING WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. OTHERWISE...THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CU TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL THEN SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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