Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270940 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 440 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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H5 IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF UPPER TROF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH A SFC LOW THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. TRAILING CDFNT WILL REACH WRN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE W QUICKLY THIS AFTN...BUT WILL TAKE LONGER IN THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE W AND CHC IN THE E. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WILL KEEP MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS. COLDER AIR WORKING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME SNOW TO MIX IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE INITIAL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY EJECT OUT OF ROCKIES. THIS CAUSES THE FRONT AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN TO HANG UP FOR SUNDAY. KEPT LIKELY POPS SE OF 71 FOR SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES BEING DRY. SHEARED OUT TROF SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY FINALLY PULLING THE PCPN OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODEL OR TWO IS HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY PCPN IN THE CAA MONDAY. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S INT HE NW TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE. TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS THE COOLER AIR WORKS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNTIL SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE AND MORE LIKELY TOWARDS LATE DAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. THE REAL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OR THE FROPA WHICH WILL BE AFTER 0Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BEFORE 0Z AND THEN OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR AS COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES IN AFTER 0Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...FRANKS

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