Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 031133 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 633 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area today. The high will move off to the east on Sunday as an upper level disturbance quickly moves to the Great Lakes. High pressure will then briefly build back into the Ohio Valley on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure will continue to build into the Ohio Valley today. Despite this, a persistent and extensive stratocumulus deck remains stuck under a subsidence inversion. Although some erosion will likely occur this afternoon into this evening, thickening high clouds will arrive aloft from the southwest. Therefore, peaks of the sun will be at a premium. Highs will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Models remain in good agreement in terms of the next s/wv to affect the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. Have leaned a little more on the GFS/ECMWF blend due to a little more isentropic lift expected with this system. For tonight, clouds will continue to thicken and lower well ahead of the next s/wv to affect the region on Sunday. On Sunday, weak isentropic lift will combine with some dynamic lift as the s/wv moves into the Great Lakes. We will likely see some virga first spread into the area due to a dry sub cloud base. Then, as saturation occurs, there should be a brief period of light rain from west to east Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Precipitation amounts will be a tenth of an inch or less. By Sunday evening, light precipitation will quickly come to an end. There may be a small chance of a wet snowflake mixing in across the far north before the precipitation ends. Otherwise, clouds will persist into much of the night. On Monday, surface high pressure will briefly build back into the Ohio Valley. Skies are expected to become partly cloudy. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 40s with lows Sunday and Monday in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A large system will move up from the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday night. There continues to be some timing and placement issues with this synoptic system. However, the region should see a pretty decent chance of rain by Tuesday. With the warmer air being drawn up into the region, we expect precipitation to be in the form of rain through this event. There will be lull in the precipitation on Wednesday before the next system late Wednesday night into Thursday. There is quite a bit of model variation with this. The GFS continues to be pretty dry while the ECMWF brings more moisture into the region. Went closer to the wetter ECMWF solution. The ECMWF has trended cooler therefore there is the potential that some snow will also be possible on Thursday. Models do agree that much colder air will then work down into the region for the end of the long term. With this pattern kept a slight chance of precipitation chances in with the potential for some lake effect snow showers. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A layer of stratocumulus clouds remains in place across the region, and this will likely remain the case through the majority of the TAF period, outside of a few brief breaks. Clouds will start the morning generally in the VFR category. This is expected to change during the next few hours, as ceilings will likely lower again to MVFR. Ceilings of around 2500 feet will likely persist through the day, but some scattering and/or lifting will be possible by late afternoon or early evening. Wind will not be an issue today, remaining generally westerly at 10 knots or less. VFR conditions are expected tonight through Sunday morning, in advance of the next weather system. While the stratocumulus deck may eventually dissipate heading into Sunday morning, clouds will immediately begin to thicken again at higher elevations. Precipitation is likely to hold off until after 12Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday. MVFR conditions are possible again from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning, along with rain.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hickman/Novak AVIATION...Hatzos

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