Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 022050 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 450 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL UNDERCUT A STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION NEAR OR ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WILL SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND SEE SOME EROSION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE IN NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN EDGE RUNNING N-S THROUGH INDIANA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 50S...COULD GO LOWER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR. RECORD LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S AT THIS TIME OF YEAR SO THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A THREAT OF GETTING THAT COLD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REGION WILL SEE SOME DRY AIR MIXING IN LATE...BUT A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER SIDE TO ERR ON GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ONLY STARTING TO MAKE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING ALONG OR AT LEAST NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF IT NEAREST THE OHIO/WV LINE. IF SUN DOES MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IF PRESENT WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AND ENHANCE ANY UPWARD MOTION FOUND DURING THE LATE DAY. DID NOT CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MODELS WERE VERY MUTED IN QPF BULLS EYES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE A COLD POOL SHOWER EVENT WITH NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTIONS AVAILABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW 80S THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL WARM TO AROUND 60 WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER 60S THURS NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICS ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. LOW CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CIGS HAVE LINGERED THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO WORK SOUTH FROM LAKE ERIE. CIGS IN CENTRAL OHIO SHOULD GO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT THE CIGS AT THE OTHER TAFS MVFR. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE LOCATION OF THE H9 MOISTURE HANDLED THE BEST...SO FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION. KEPT MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LINGERING MOISTURE, AFTER SUNSET SLOWLY LOWERED THE CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR BY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP IN THE FOG. HAVE THE FOG AND CIGS LIFTING GRADUALLY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT NOT GOING VFR UNTIL AFT 18Z IN THE EXTENDED CVG TAF. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...SITES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.