Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 061125 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 625 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHEARED OUT VORT AXIS PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING IS WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SOME SHORT WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HOW FAST MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED UP INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND CMC ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...DEVELOPING PCPN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND NAM ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE BEST MOISTURE/FORCING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CAA WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT ALL RAIN...SO WILL JUST ALLOW FOR A MIX TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS GOOD CAA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR BEGIN TO DROP OFF SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN CONTINUED CAA...PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND ITS AFFECT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH AND PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ALSO GET INTO A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLDER AIR ARRIVES MORE IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY WITH DISTURBANCES BRINGING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BUT MINOR ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE THE RULE. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FINALLY GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY. SOME INDICATION OF A DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP BENIGN WEATHER IN FOR NOW WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND SOME PATCHY CIRRUS HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO APPROACH ZERO IN PLACES. ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS THE SUN COMES UP. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FORECASTED THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUNDAY MORNING THE TERMINALS WILL FALL IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP SPEED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...HAINES

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