Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 022036 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 436 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THEN COMPLETELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. FORECAST LOWS USE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND COOLER MOS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER FEATURE COULD HELP CONVECTION LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNALS THAT AN MCS MAY FORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AND IF THIS OCCURS THEN THIS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT FELT THAT IT WARRANTED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL GET TRAPPED IN WEAK FLOW AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A WEAKNESS AMONGST BUILDING HEIGHTS. THUS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES SHOWING ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS FROM DAY TO DAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED IN THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CU AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR BR/FG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KLUK/KLCK AND KILN. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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