Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261053 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 653 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to extend across the area into tonight. Low pressure and a cold front will approach the region on Thursday and move through Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure will gradually build in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface ridge will persist through the day with light southeast to south winds. A bit of thin cirrus from convection in the upper Plains may pass across the area, but that should still result in plenty of sun. Highs will be warmer than yesterday, although guidance seemed slightly too warm. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Ridge will finally move off to the east tonight. Low pressure and a cold front will approach from the west northwest on Thursday as a short wave dives out of the Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Showers and some thunderstorms may start to push into the region towards daybreak. Expect activity to increase especially in the afternoon with just about the entire area getting some precipitation. There is some question about how much instability will be available within the model suite, but there will be plenty of moisture. So locally heavy rainfall will be a concern. If enough instability is realized, then there may also be a damaging wind threat, primarily in the southern or southeastern counties. Lows may be able to drop a bit in eastern counties in the evening but western areas will stay warm. Expected cloud cover and precipitation should limit highs on Thursday and have leaned towards cooler guidance. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An area of low pressure will be moving through the region at the start of the long term period. Some heavy rain will be possible with this feature at the start of the long term. This feature will move to the east on Friday, however an upper level disturbance will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the region on Friday. Precipitation will taper off Friday night. High pressure and dry conditions are then expected for the remainder of the long term with cu developing each day. Temperatures are expected to be below normal from Friday through Sunday and then getting back closer to seasonal normals for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR will prevail through most if not all of the forecast period. Only expect some thin cirrus during the day and into the evening. Scattered to broken cumulus will spread in along with thickening high clouds late in the TAF period. Some showers and possibly thunderstorms may also start to impact areas from KDAY to KCVG/KLUK before 12Z. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night. MVFR ceilings will be possible Thursday night into Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...

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