Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251746 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 146 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent southwesterly flow will keep temperatures above normal through the weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures and occasional upper level disturbances moving through the region will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak upper level disturbance will move across the region today. This will initially bring a chance of showers along with an increase in cloud cover. There could be enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm late in the day, but that is looking doubtful at this time considering altocumulus cloud shield. Highs will range from the upper 70s to near 80. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak short wave will lift northeast into the southern Great Lakes tonight. This will allow for the possibility of some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening into the overnight hours, especially across our northwest, closest to the short wave. Temperatures tonight will remain seasonably warm, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. We will remain on the western edge of the mid level ridge located over the east coast through the end of the week. This will keep us in south to southwest flow through the remainder of the short term period. In the continued WAA pattern, we should push into the mid 80s for highs both Thursday and Friday, allowing for good destabilization both days. Several weak impulses will ride up the back side of the ridge, but the best forcing associated with these will generally remain off to our west. With the overall lack of forcing, will keep pops mainly in the 20-30 percent range Thursday into Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances will be characteristic of the long term period. With signal for warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to increase temperatures over the superblend. The superblend seemed especially low for Memorial Day. Increased temperatures over the blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon convection limits temperatures. At this point limited any thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited instability. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Weak upper level disturbance will exit the eastern terminals over the next few hours, along with the spotty light showers occurring with it. For tonight, persistent southwest flow aloft will continue. Another embedded disturbance is forecast to past east across the region. High resolution models suggest convective development to our west late this afternoon and evening across Illinois and Indiana. Then, with the gradual loss of diurnal instability, and the lack of strong forcing, precipitation with this feature should decrease in coverage as it moves into our region. Have included a vcsh for western terminals and left it out for the eastern terminals. Predominate conditions should remain VFR, except for kluk where some partial clearing late may allow some river fog to form. Have kept conditions MVFR there for now. On Thursday, upper level southwesterly flow will continue. We may end up being in a lull in terms of embedded disturbances rippling through the flow. Thus...some scattered to broken cumulus is expected with perhaps an isolated shower or storm popping up in the heat of the day. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hickman

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