Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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010 FXUS61 KILN 102147 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 447 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH. DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24 DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10 SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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