Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 220233
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1033 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017
An upper level low pressure system will allow for cool, cloudy,
and at times wet conditions tonight through part of the day on
Sunday. High pressure and dry conditions will return for Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Light rain showers have begun to overspread portions of the FA
from the WSW this evening. Although some radar returns are
appearing north of I-70 this evening, most of measurable pcpn
should stay along/south of this corridor. Latest hi-res models
have hinted that this overrunning pcpn may move east of the FA
late tonight towards the end of the near term period before more
rain moves in toward the very beginning of the short-term
period. This may allow for a brief break in pcpn for some areas
north of the Ohio River late tonight before steady rain again
overspreads the S/SE third of the FA early Saturday.
Have made very little adjustment to low temps this evening as
temp trends seem right on track for lows ranging from the lower
40s in the north to around 50 in the south.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --An upper level low will help usher in additional rain /some of
it moderate and steady/ at the beginning of the short-term
period. Latest guidance continues to hint at the potential for a
very sharp northern cutoff gradient with the activity Saturday
morning into the early afternoon. This being said, did not have
confidence to pull PoPs across the central part of the CWA,
although did trend steadiest/heaviest pcpn a bit further south
with this update. May need to continue trend in further updates
if data continues to suggest that the northern 2/3 of the area
may be mostly dry during the day.
Still have fairly high confidence in a steady soaking rain
across most of northern KY and parts of the lower Scioto Valley
Saturday morning and early afternoon before activity becomes
more scattered late in the afternoon into the evening. Showers
may linger in these areas on-and-off through the end of the
short-term period, especially for northeastern KY and south-
With the expected thick cloud cover and pcpn in parts of area
on Saturday, the FA may end up with a bit of an unusual temp
gradient, with warmest conditions in the north and coolest
conditions in the south. This being said, with sfc winds out of
the northeast area-wide, it is still shaping up to be a bit of a
cool day, with highs in lower to mid 50s in the north and
around 50 in the south. In fact, would not be surprised to see
a few locations across nrthrn KY remain in the 40s throughout
With cloud cover expected to linger in the area Saturday night,
do not foresee temperatures dropping very much from daytime
highs. Lows will range from around 40 in the north to mid 40s in
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level low over the Ohio Valley Sunday to drift slowly south
into the southeast U.S. Monday. Under the influence of this low will
carry a continued chance of showers south Sunday into Monday. Highs
will be close to normal and generally in the mid 60s.
Precipitation to end with surface high pressure building in early
next week. Temperatures will warm about a category above normal with
Monday/s highs from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Southerly flow to develop on the backside of retreating surface high
pressure. Under the influence of WAA temperatures will be around 10
degrees above normal with highs on Tuesday in the lower and middle
Latest model soln trends more progressive with s/w tracking thru the
Great Lakes and associated cold front dropping through the Ohio
Valley. Have brought chance of showers/thunderstorms into the area
Wednesday and then diminish pops early Thursday with the front
pushing into the TN Vly. Highs look warm both Wednesday and Thursday
generally from 75 to 80.
Surface low to eject northeast from the central plains into the
upper MS Vly Thursday night into Friday. Front to lift back north as
warm front late Thursday night. Best moisture and lift to our west,
so have limited pops to slight chance. In warm sector under strong
WAA expect highs Friday to range from 80 northwest to 85
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will continue to overspread the area from the southwest
this evening with ceilings slowly lowering. The onset of the
rain will be delayed slightly as dry air in the bottom of the
sounding will take time to fully saturate. Looking at
isentropic surfaces on the GFS, this rain will look to continue
through early Saturday morning with the best upglide and
chances for rain slowly heading east. Around 12z Saturday
morning rain chances will again re-enter the area from the west
as an upper level disturbance approaches. Looking at PWAT fields
there appears to be a sharp moisture gradient with PWATs less
than 0.5" across the northern TAF sites while PWATs forecasted
over 3/4 of an inch near CVG/ LUK. Due to this have trended
prevailing RA towards the southern TAF sites.
In pockets of heavier rain some MVFR restrictions in ceilings
and visibilities will be possible.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.