Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171047 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 647 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible today as a weak cold front pushes through the region. Temperatures will be slightly below normal today but then begin to gradually warm through the work week. Drier conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday before precipitation chances return toward the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... There is still a small lingering shower across our far southwest early this morning but this should continue to weaken and dissipate over the next hour or so. The earlier convection had left a decent cirrus shield across our area but this has begun to dissipate per the latest IR satellite imagery. So far though, this has helped limit fog development this morning and will likely continue to do so across much of the area through daybreak. The exception may be on the northern and southern periphery of our fa where the higher clouds have now dissipated. We are beginning to see some stratus development just to our north and some of this may sneak down into northern portions of our fa through mid morning. Meanwhile, the main mid level short wave will push off to our southeast through the morning hours while a weak surface boundary currently over central portions of our area sags slowly south. As we destabilize some through the afternoon, this boundary may serve as a bit of a focus for some isolated shower or thunderstorm development through the day. However, the chances may be limited some by the fact that we will be on the back side of the main mid level short wave. As a result, will limit pops for today to slight chance. Highs today will range from around 80 across our northwest to the mid 80s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Would expect any lingering shower or thunderstorm activity to dissipate fairly quickly this evening as we lose diurnal heating. What is left of the boundary will still be across southern portions of our fa on Tuesday but think the mid/upper level ridge building in from the west should help limit pcpn chances through the day on Tuesday. Expect highs on Tuesday mainly in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tuesday night surface high pressure will be weakening as a broad upper level low pulls east. During the day Wednesday high temperatures will begin to build as mid-level ridging amplifies over the central United States. 850 mb temperatures are expected to climb to around 17 degrees C with dewpoints also approaching 70. Highs will likely be around 90 degrees Wednesday afternoon with heat index values in the mid 90s. Forecast soundings do come close to destabilizing Wednesday afternoon but there does appear to be a weak cap in place still so have kept most of the area dry. Thursday morning an upper level low will move on to the west coast helping to modulate the amplitude of the ridge to where the forecast area falls into mid and upper level northwest flow. As this occurs multiple upper level disturbances will ride around the ridge and across the area. Thursday afternoon GFS forecast soundings begin to destabilize across the area with the better instability across the northern zones. Bulk shear values also begin to increase at this time across the north and average around 30 kts (sfc to 6km bulk shear) in the evening. The other major weather question Thursday afternoon will be the chance for heat (esp across our southwestern zones). 850 mb temperatures Thursday afternoon rise to 21 degrees C which would support high temperatures in the low 90s. Dewpoints Thursday afternoon are also expected to be in the low 70s which would allow heat indicies to be approaching 100 degrees in southern Ohio. Friday afternoon a strong upper level low over the Hudson Bay will wobble southeast ever so slightly nudging the ridge south as well. As this happens both the ECMWF and GFS are showing a cold front stalling out across central Ohio. Even though the ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good agreement here confidence remains low this far out. Any slight deviation in the movement of the low over the Hudson Bay could easily keep the front farther north and the area dry or vice versa. To put this in perspective the ECMWF run accumulated precipitation through Saturday morning has only a couple of hundredths across northern Kentucky and 1 to 2 inches across central Ohio. The spread on the GEFS is significant as well. Saturday the front looks to remain quasi-stationary with an upper level disturbance diving southeast towards Ohio. The ECMWF and GFS differ on the strength and amplitude of the wave but push a cold front through the area Monday (the ECMWF is quicker than the GFS) and allow for a return of pleasant conditions at the end of the long term. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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IFR stratus deck is continuing to push south southeast across northern portions of our fa and will likely reach KLCK and KDAY by taf issuance time. the southern push should slow though as the sun continues to rise so will plan on keeping it out of KILN at this time. These low clouds should lift into a sct to possibly bkn cu field as we go into this afternoon and destabilize. With a weak boundary in the area, a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm will be possible. Since coverage is expected to be fairly limited per the high res models, will limit any mention of pcpn to just a pcpn. Any lingering activity should dissipate as we head toward evening with mainly clear skies the overnight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL

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