Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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750 FXUS61 KILN 280245 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1045 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will work into the region on Wednesday and influence the weather pattern through the remainder of the week. This feature will allow for cool and cloudy conditions with scattered shower activity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Upper level low centered over northern Michigan to drop slowly south into the Ohio Valley. Skies which have been mostly clear through the evening will see an increase in clouds overnight. Any precipitation will hold off until close to sunrise. Have made only a minor change, slowing up precipitation with light showers developing into the northwest toward sunrise. With few clouds and dry air in place, temperatures will continue to drop off and then level out late with increase in clouds. Have lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Previous discussion... Clear to mostly clear skies will give way to an increase in clouds overnight as an upper level low approaches the area. Precipitation will hold off most of the night, however some light shower activity will move into northwestern portions of the forecast area by morning. Although initially there will be dry air in place, expect an increase in moisture and lift late in the overnight hours. Expect a quick drop off in temperatures for the first half of the night with less cloud cover and drier air. Went on the cooler side of guidance for low temperatures overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Increased precipitation chances for the day on Wednesday as the upper level low pressure system approaches the area. Showers with isolated embedded thunder is expected. An initial push will move through during the morning and into the afternoon with additional scattered shower activity behind this first push of precipitation. Precipitation during this time will be somewhat diurnal with less coverage at night and more during the day. Cloudy and cool conditions will be quite prevalent through this time with high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Closed upper low will be working gradually northward to SE Indiana on Friday. Showers will be likely in the moist and weakly unstable circulation around the upper low and its cold pool aloft, aided by low level convergence associated with an inverted surface trough. As the upper low continues to exhibit slow movement on a path to the central Great Lakes, a good chance of showers will persist through Saturday. When the low lifts farther to the northeast on Sunday, decreasing moisture and forcing will be evident. There will be a slight chance of showers in shallow residual moisture. Dry weather appears in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday under high pressure at the surface and aloft. Expect below normal highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday under clouds, precip, and low geopotential heights. A rebound back into the 70s should be noted by Tuesday in a regime of warm advection and insolation. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Large upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes to drift slowly south into the Ohio valley Wednesday. Skies will be mostly clear through the evening with mainly high level clouds across the area. Moisture will increase overnight with showers moving into western Ohio toward sunrise. Lift and moisture will become more favorable as the upper low settles into the Ohio valley Wednesday afternoon. Have prevailing showers developing late morning into the afternoon from west to east. Have kept CIGS VFR through the period but some brief MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible in heaviest shower activity Wednesday afternoon. Instability increases Wednesday afternoon but remains marginal. Therefore...have omitted mention of thunder to potential limited coverage. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings with local MVFR visibilities possible with showers Wednesday night through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak/AR SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.