Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220233 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1033 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will allow for cool, cloudy, and at times wet conditions tonight through part of the day on Sunday. High pressure and dry conditions will return for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Light rain showers have begun to overspread portions of the FA from the WSW this evening. Although some radar returns are appearing north of I-70 this evening, most of measurable pcpn should stay along/south of this corridor. Latest hi-res models have hinted that this overrunning pcpn may move east of the FA late tonight towards the end of the near term period before more rain moves in toward the very beginning of the short-term period. This may allow for a brief break in pcpn for some areas north of the Ohio River late tonight before steady rain again overspreads the S/SE third of the FA early Saturday. Have made very little adjustment to low temps this evening as temp trends seem right on track for lows ranging from the lower 40s in the north to around 50 in the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper level low will help usher in additional rain /some of it moderate and steady/ at the beginning of the short-term period. Latest guidance continues to hint at the potential for a very sharp northern cutoff gradient with the activity Saturday morning into the early afternoon. This being said, did not have confidence to pull PoPs across the central part of the CWA, although did trend steadiest/heaviest pcpn a bit further south with this update. May need to continue trend in further updates if data continues to suggest that the northern 2/3 of the area may be mostly dry during the day. Still have fairly high confidence in a steady soaking rain across most of northern KY and parts of the lower Scioto Valley Saturday morning and early afternoon before activity becomes more scattered late in the afternoon into the evening. Showers may linger in these areas on-and-off through the end of the short-term period, especially for northeastern KY and south- central Ohio. With the expected thick cloud cover and pcpn in parts of area on Saturday, the FA may end up with a bit of an unusual temp gradient, with warmest conditions in the north and coolest conditions in the south. This being said, with sfc winds out of the northeast area-wide, it is still shaping up to be a bit of a cool day, with highs in lower to mid 50s in the north and around 50 in the south. In fact, would not be surprised to see a few locations across nrthrn KY remain in the 40s throughout the day. With cloud cover expected to linger in the area Saturday night, do not foresee temperatures dropping very much from daytime highs. Lows will range from around 40 in the north to mid 40s in the south.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level low over the Ohio Valley Sunday to drift slowly south into the southeast U.S. Monday. Under the influence of this low will carry a continued chance of showers south Sunday into Monday. Highs will be close to normal and generally in the mid 60s. Precipitation to end with surface high pressure building in early next week. Temperatures will warm about a category above normal with Monday/s highs from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Southerly flow to develop on the backside of retreating surface high pressure. Under the influence of WAA temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal with highs on Tuesday in the lower and middle 70s. Latest model soln trends more progressive with s/w tracking thru the Great Lakes and associated cold front dropping through the Ohio Valley. Have brought chance of showers/thunderstorms into the area Wednesday and then diminish pops early Thursday with the front pushing into the TN Vly. Highs look warm both Wednesday and Thursday generally from 75 to 80. Surface low to eject northeast from the central plains into the upper MS Vly Thursday night into Friday. Front to lift back north as warm front late Thursday night. Best moisture and lift to our west, so have limited pops to slight chance. In warm sector under strong WAA expect highs Friday to range from 80 northwest to 85 southeast. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers will continue to overspread the area from the southwest this evening with ceilings slowly lowering. The onset of the rain will be delayed slightly as dry air in the bottom of the sounding will take time to fully saturate. Looking at isentropic surfaces on the GFS, this rain will look to continue through early Saturday morning with the best upglide and chances for rain slowly heading east. Around 12z Saturday morning rain chances will again re-enter the area from the west as an upper level disturbance approaches. Looking at PWAT fields there appears to be a sharp moisture gradient with PWATs less than 0.5" across the northern TAF sites while PWATs forecasted over 3/4 of an inch near CVG/ LUK. Due to this have trended prevailing RA towards the southern TAF sites. In pockets of heavier rain some MVFR restrictions in ceilings and visibilities will be possible. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak/KC SHORT TERM...Novak/KC LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Haines

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