Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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783 FXUS61 KILN 012100 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 400 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through Friday. High pressure will build in Saturday. A weak upper level disturbance will track across the area Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Satellite imagery shows that clearing has worked into the Tri- State. Elsewhere there have been some thin spots in the stratocumulus, but conditions have remained cloudy. It appears that clearing could make a little more progress into the forecast area this evening. But a return to some weak cold air advection later tonight should result in lower clouds spreading back across those areas that cleared. Forecast lows do not stray too far from MOS guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Stratocumulus is expected to continue through Friday and into Friday evening. Weak low level warm air advection finally commences Friday night and surface high pressure starts to nose in from the west. This should be sufficient for low clouds to eventually erode. The high will build in Saturday and already move off to the east Saturday night. High clouds will be starting to spread in Saturday although at this point expect them to be thin through much of the day. Clouds will thicken towards evening and then lower into a mid deck Saturday night. But it will remain dry. Highs will remain below normal with lows near normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A system will move through the region Sunday into Sunday evening. There is a northern and southern component to this system and models continue to differ on how much phasing between these two components there will be. Trends continue to be towards less phasing therefore kept close to the previous forecast of a little cooler with the temperatures and lighter with the precipitation. A brief lull in the precipitation will occur late Sunday night through the daytime hours on Monday. The next system will move up from the south Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will generally be in the form of rain with this system as warmer air in drawn in from the south. Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday, much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be possible then on Thursday. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A fairly expansive sc deck remains in place across the Great Lakes region this afternoon. However, a few breaks are opening up back to our west where the low level flow has begun to back just a bit. Some of this will likely work its way east across KCVG/KLUK later this afternoon and into this evening so they may go scattered from time. Otherwise, it looks like enough low level moisture should hang around tonight into Friday to generally keep the SC in place across the area. The models are on the edge once again of low VFR and possibly some MVFR cigs. The best chance for any MVFR cigs would likely be at the northern TAF sites later tonight into Friday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday and again Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL

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