Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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544 FXUS61 KILN 211803 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 203 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will continue to move northeast today slowing pulling the backedge of the rain eastward with it. A much colder airmass will filter into the region today and Saturday, before warmer air works back into the region for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper level trof axis along the Indiana/Ohio border to push east thru the Ohio valley today. Wrap around rain, associated with deformation zone to end precipitation from west to east across ILN/s FA through mid afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs ranging from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Previous discussion... The center of low pressure and a cdfnt are located over West Virginia early this morning. This has allowed winds to turn to the north and temperatures to fall into upper 40s and 50s. However, sharp H5 trof will swing thru the fa this morning. This is combining with a deformation axis to produce a secondary band of rain across IN into wrn OH. It will take a good part of the morning for deformation zone to work thru the fa, and to bring an end to the chance of rain. Some rain could linger in the extreme eastern counties into early afternoon. Strong pressure gradient on the backside of the low will keep winds gusty, especially this morning. Gusts 20-30 mph will be possible. CAA will persist through the day with 850 mb temperatures dropping down below 0C by late afternoon. This will counteract the drier air trying to build in this afternoon, to linger the clouds today. With the cloud cover, temperatures will be limited to the lower to mid 50s, with a few spots in the Cincy Tri-State making the upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... By 00Z the H5 trof axis will be into the Appalachians, leaving the fa in nw flow both at the sfc and aloft. Feel that there will be enuf cold air aloft to linger the clouds overnight. The clouds will help keep temperatures up a little, but they still be a little below normal falling in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Surface high pressure will begin to build up into the Tennessee Valley. While this keep dry conditions on Saturday, lingering cold air aloft will allow for clouds to redevelop especially during the afternoon. This will keep temperatures in the 50s, ranging from the lower 50s in the east to the mid 50s in the west. Saturday night will see H8 temperatures warming, but think that the atmosphere will decouple enough for a small diurnal drop in temperatures. Lows Saturday night will drop back into the lower to mid 40s. On Sunday, southwest winds at the sfc will bring warm air back into the region. A few high clouds could affect the region in fast flow aloft, but there will be plenty of sunshine and temperatures should make the mid to upper 60s for highs. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday night into Monday morning a shortwave will push southeast down mid-level ridging and around the upper level low. The GFS is slightly more progressive and weaker with the shortwave compared to the ECMWF. Both 20.12z model runs bring the shortwave slightly further west than yesterday and therefore try to bring the heart of the colder air slightly further west as well. The ECMWF and the GFS push the front through the area by Monday evening. The frontal passage also appears to be a dry frontal passage as PWATs remain around 0.60". Behind the front highs will cool down back to normal as the heart of the cold air still misses the area (850 mb temperatures around 4 degrees C). Tuesday the upper level trough will finally head east of the area taking the cooler air with it. Wednesday into Thursday a shortwave will eject out of the midwest and approach the area. This means clouds will begin to increase on Wednesday and into Thursday. Have also introduced a chance of rain into the forecast Thursday as the low approaches. PWATs on the GFS rise to above 1.00" with limited instability. Upper level forcing looks good though as the ILN forecast area is in the diffluent side of the trough axis and widespread PV moves over the area. For now have just edged the chance of precipitation up as model consistency remains low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As upper level trof pivots through the Ohio valley, rain is coming to an end from west to east. MVFR CIGS are improving to VFR across the west, as clouds lift to around 4000 feet. MVFR CIGS will linger a little longer at KCMH/KLCK with VFR conditions not expected until 00z. Broken VFR CIGS are expected to continue through the night with clouds scattering out at times. CIGS between 3500 and 4000 feet are expected to continue through the TAF forecast, with clearing holding off til late Saturday afternoon. Northwest winds will gust up to 25 kts this afternoon and then continue from the northwest at speeds up to 10 kts tonight and 10 to 15 kts Saturday. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites NEAR TERM...AR/Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.