Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 012100
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
400 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep
cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through
Friday. High pressure will build in Saturday. A weak upper level
disturbance will track across the area Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Satellite imagery shows that clearing has worked into the Tri-
State. Elsewhere there have been some thin spots in the
stratocumulus, but conditions have remained cloudy. It appears
that clearing could make a little more progress into the forecast
area this evening. But a return to some weak cold air advection
later tonight should result in lower clouds spreading back across
those areas that cleared. Forecast lows do not stray too far from
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Stratocumulus is expected to continue through Friday and into
Friday evening. Weak low level warm air advection finally
commences Friday night and surface high pressure starts to nose in
from the west. This should be sufficient for low clouds to
The high will build in Saturday and already move off to the east
Saturday night. High clouds will be starting to spread in Saturday
although at this point expect them to be thin through much of the
day. Clouds will thicken towards evening and then lower into a mid
deck Saturday night. But it will remain dry.
Highs will remain below normal with lows near normal through the
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A system will move through the region Sunday into Sunday evening.
There is a northern and southern component to this system and models
continue to differ on how much phasing between these two components
there will be. Trends continue to be towards less phasing therefore
kept close to the previous forecast of a little cooler with the
temperatures and lighter with the precipitation.
A brief lull in the precipitation will occur late Sunday night
through the daytime hours on Monday. The next system will move up
from the south Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will
generally be in the form of rain with this system as warmer air in
drawn in from the south.
Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS
is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went
closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday,
much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be
possible then on Thursday.
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fairly expansive sc deck remains in place across the Great Lakes region
this afternoon. However, a few breaks are opening up back to our
west where the low level flow has begun to back just a bit. Some
of this will likely work its way east across KCVG/KLUK later this
afternoon and into this evening so they may go scattered from
time. Otherwise, it looks like enough low level moisture should
hang around tonight into Friday to generally keep the SC in place
across the area. The models are on the edge once again of low VFR
and possibly some MVFR cigs. The best chance for any MVFR cigs
would likely be at the northern TAF sites later tonight into
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday and again Monday night