Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270215 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1015 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...TRAILING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAA PATTERN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE WITH SOME CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THICKEST OVER THE NW. TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY IN DRY AIRMASS BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SE WIND EXPECT READINGS TO STEADY OUT LATE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR SW TO NEAR 40 NE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WARM AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MONDAY AND MORE PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 60S RESPECTIVELY. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUTED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR DUE TO RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR PORTSMOUTH SHOULD REACH THE HIGHER END OF THE MID 70S WITH A DELAY OF THE ONSET OF RAIN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. ANNOTATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WX TYPE WHERE LIFTED INDICES APPROACHED ZERO AND THEN WENT NEGATIVE. THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR PULLED IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FORCING WITH THE FRONT TO SUPPORT THE DEEPER CONVECTION NEEDED FOR THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL END RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON AND USHER IN MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL AIR TO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE PIVOTS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AND WE COULD END UP WITH SOME NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. IN WAA PATTERN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING HIGH...ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED A PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS AS LOW AS 4000 FEET. DRY WARM FRONT TO PIVOT TO THE NE MONDAY AFTN WITH ONLY SCTD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS .OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO/AR

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