Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 142121 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 421 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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System will exit the area this evening and high pressure will briefly build into the region. An unsettled pattern returns for the end of the weekend through Tuesday with multiple disturbances bringing precipitation chances to the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Still seeing some locations that are receiving precipitation with temperatures at freezing or below. In addition, after the widespread precipitation exits the area model soundings are showing the potential for some drizzle early this evening and see some obs collaborating this already. Due to this have extended the freezing rain advisory until 8pm this evening due to the potential for lingering freezing drizzle. There are also some reductions in vsbys and therefore have patchy fog in this evening. As drier air moves in have precipitation tapering off and patchy fog mention confined to southeastern portions of the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry conditions will start out the short term. Isentropic lift increases across southern portions of the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Although precipitation is expected to be all rain south of the Ohio River north of the river there is the potential for a mix of precipitation. By mid morning on Monday expect temperatures to warm enough where all precipitation is rain. Warm air continues to move in Monday night and therefore expect temperatures to continue to rise through the overnight hours. Better precipitation chances move in at the end of the short term period.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Showers will occur at the beginning of the period in advance of a cold front that will move through. Some thunder cannot be ruled out. High pressure will then build in mid week and move off to the east. Southerly flow will ensue with rising upper heights. This will lead to well above normal temperatures. Some showers could develop as weak disturbances lift up the back side of the upper ridge, with latest guidance suggesting Friday being the better day to see precipitation.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precipitation continues to move across the terminals this afternoon with mostly LIFR conditions. Further north towards CMH/ LCK precipitation has remained mostly south of the area. Another band of precipitation is currently moving across central Indiana and will likely impact these northern terminals though. Given current temperature profiles across the northern TAF sites frozen precipitation looks likely. This evening precipitation will slowly come to an end as surface high pressure approaches from the northwest. Latest NAM soundings show moisture locked in across the terminals with LIFR CIGs prevailing until daybreak Sunday morning. The GFS on the other hand pushes all terminals VFR by 6z Sunday morning. Overall high res guidance indicates a slow recovery in CIGs overnight and have made TAFs reflect this. High res guidance is also indicating the potential for fog development mostly northwest of the TAF sites. This is in part due to some clearing skies and calm winds from approaching high pressure. As of current looks like TAF sites will remain just cloudy enough to hold off fog development. During the day Sunday surface high pressure will skirt north and east of the area allowing winds to quickly veer east. VFR expected during the day Sunday. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at times Sunday night through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065. KY...None. IN...Freezing Rain Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for INZ050- 058-059.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines

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