Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210217 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1017 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and its associated cold front will push across the area tonight, with precipitation coming to an end. High pressure will build in for Tuesday and remain in control for midweek with dry conditions and cool temperatures. The high will slide off to the east by the end of the week with southerly air providing a warm trend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Surface low will ripple east through KY overnight. Elevated storms continue over southern Ohio associated with inverted sfc trof ahead of this sfc low. As the sfc low tracks east thru the Ohio Valley overnight, precip will end from northwest to southeast. Expect clouds to hang on with abundant moisture in the low levels as winds become northerly. Good gradient to temperatures tonight with lows from the upper 30s north to the mid/upper 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure along the central MS Valley will press east but looks to stay south of the area as it passes along northern Kentucky Tuesday. This will keep much of the precip associated with the low to the south and any rainfall chance will be south of the region Tuesday evening. Heading into Tuesday night, with low pressure passing to the east, cold temperatures will filter in behind the area with lows in the mid to upper 20s for lows into Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft will generally provide dry weather to end the work week with temperatures jumping from around 40 on Wednesday into the 60s by Friday. A warm front lifting through the region Thursday night and Friday morning may generate a few showers, especially over our northern counties. A vertically stacked low pressure system will then ride northeastward up the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. Models are fairly consistent now indicating that the ILN forecast area remains in the warm sector through much of the day Saturday before a cold front passes Saturday night. Painted a picture of increasing PoPs from west to east beginning late Friday night and peaking Saturday evening, with a few thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Lesser rain chances will linger Sunday and even into Monday as the parent upper low fills and meanders northeastward slowly across the region. Temperatures only cool slightly behind our weekend system with forecast highs dropping from the 60s to near 70 on Saturday down into the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Elevated thunderstorm complex developed in a area of favorable lift, ahead of a surface low near Saint Louis. This complex has pushed south of the TAF sites. However, additional storms are developing along an sfc trof and will affect the TAF sites through the evening. As the sfc low tracks east thru the Ohio Valley overnight, precip will end and CIGS will lower through MVFR to IFR. Expect IFR CIGS and MVFR vsbys in fog into the morning with an improving trend on Tuesday as surface high pressure builds in. Expect VFR conditions by afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibility`s possible Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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