Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251653 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1153 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OBSERVATIONS EARLY HAVE STARTED AS SNOW...BUT IN SOME SITES SUCH AS THE DAYTON AIRPORT...HAVE CHANGED BACK TO RAIN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING FROM NORTH OF DAYTON AND EXTEND ESE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FRANKLIN COUNTY. THIS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXPECT SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND ACTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A GOOD BIT OF THE REGION THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW THAT IS NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET OR RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR I AM HESITANT TO SAY THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM I STILL SEE THE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO TICKLE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO MIX RAIN IN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KILN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE PELLETS NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AT KDAY HOWEVER WITH LOW PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE ICE PELLETS HAVE DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046- 051>056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072. KY...NONE. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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