-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 161054
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
654 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to the east will keep dry weather across
the Ohio Valley today through Sunday. A weak cold front arriving
from the west may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms
beginning on Monday. A persistent southerly flow and ample
sunshine will allow above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Western
Pennsylvania. Satellite shows mostly clear skies outside of a
patch of clouds residing mainly over Hocking County. Surface obs
show patchy fog developing in humid air under favorable
radiational cooling. Fog seems confined mainly to river valleys
and other rural locations. Highlighting fog with SPS for now,
though NPW may be needed if fog becomes more widespread.

Once fog burns off by 10 am, skies will be mostly sunny. A
warming airmass in the weak southerly flow around the high
should allow high temperatures to reach 80 at DAY and CMH for
the first time since September 4th.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Expect mainly clear skies tonight as surface high pressure is
pushed slowly to New England by a weak flow aloft. Look for
patchy fog to form again in a regime of humid air and light
winds.

Clouds will increase Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching
from the west. Partial sunshine and warm advection will boost
temperatures a few degrees, with highs reaching about 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad upper level ridge will keep the area warm and dry this
weekend. Shortwave to pass well to our north, tracking through
South Central Canada, with an associated sfc front stalling out
over northwest Ohio Monday. This front combined with marginal
instability will allow for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms Monday.

The upper level ridge will be between a trof over the west and Jose
off the Atlantic coast at mid week. Weak shortwave energy moving
into the region will continue to offer low chances of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chance over the western counties
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The ridge will strengthen later in the week into next weekend. This
will act to minimize precipitation chances and continue to keep
temperatures unseasonably warm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Under high pressure and mainly clear skies, aviation will be
impacted early this morning by reduced visibilities in FG and
BR forming in humid air near the ground. Expect visibility to
improve back to VFR by 13z as daytime heating and mixing
increase with the rising sun. Winds will be light from the
southeast. FG and BR may form again toward the end of the
forecast period under a similar weather pattern of high pressure
and light winds.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio