Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161054 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 654 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered to the east will keep dry weather across the Ohio Valley today through Sunday. A weak cold front arriving from the west may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms beginning on Monday. A persistent southerly flow and ample sunshine will allow above normal temperatures each day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over Western Pennsylvania. Satellite shows mostly clear skies outside of a patch of clouds residing mainly over Hocking County. Surface obs show patchy fog developing in humid air under favorable radiational cooling. Fog seems confined mainly to river valleys and other rural locations. Highlighting fog with SPS for now, though NPW may be needed if fog becomes more widespread. Once fog burns off by 10 am, skies will be mostly sunny. A warming airmass in the weak southerly flow around the high should allow high temperatures to reach 80 at DAY and CMH for the first time since September 4th. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Expect mainly clear skies tonight as surface high pressure is pushed slowly to New England by a weak flow aloft. Look for patchy fog to form again in a regime of humid air and light winds. Clouds will increase Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Partial sunshine and warm advection will boost temperatures a few degrees, with highs reaching about 83. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A broad upper level ridge will keep the area warm and dry this weekend. Shortwave to pass well to our north, tracking through South Central Canada, with an associated sfc front stalling out over northwest Ohio Monday. This front combined with marginal instability will allow for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Monday. The upper level ridge will be between a trof over the west and Jose off the Atlantic coast at mid week. Weak shortwave energy moving into the region will continue to offer low chances of showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance over the western counties Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge will strengthen later in the week into next weekend. This will act to minimize precipitation chances and continue to keep temperatures unseasonably warm. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Under high pressure and mainly clear skies, aviation will be impacted early this morning by reduced visibilities in FG and BR forming in humid air near the ground. Expect visibility to improve back to VFR by 13z as daytime heating and mixing increase with the rising sun. Winds will be light from the southeast. FG and BR may form again toward the end of the forecast period under a similar weather pattern of high pressure and light winds. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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