-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 122029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PLENTY OF WAA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATRUE FROM NER 80
SOUTH TO MID 70S NORTH EVEN WITH INCREASING CU AND MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE VERY SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...SO WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AND THE ESTABLISHED RIDGE OFF
THE SE COAST...WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL REMAINING
NEAR 10-15KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING UP AND
WAA...HAVE WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG CONTINUED WAA WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CONTINUING
FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS.

GENERAL TREND OF ECMWF/GFS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WAVES THROUGH
THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. NAM SOLUTION THE
SLOWEST OF THE THREE...HAVE KEPT CLOSER TO AN ECMWF/GFS TIMING
SOLUTION. WITH THE SE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...A SECONDARY S/WV
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP IT FROM PROGRESSING
FASTER...DESPITE THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OFF THE SE
COAST. HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING
WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER UNDER VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NON-DIURNAL DAYTIME HIGHS OVER MAINLY THE
WESTERN FCST AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS ITS PUSH THROUGH
THE FCST AREA WITH A VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT. VERY STRONG LLJ
AND SLOW MOVEMENT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FEED ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS STILL
FAIRLY SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG CAA WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
FORECASTING OF RA/SN MIX ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TUE...THOUGH WITH
WARM GROUND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ATTM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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TUESDAY WILL START WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A RETREATING COLD FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RAPID DRYING NOTED BY THE NAM/GFS
IS OFFSET BY THE CANADIAN/EURO HOLDING ON TO PRECIP IN THE 12-18
TIME FRAME. WITH THE LAG OF THE UPPER L/W TROUGH...KEEPING PRECIP IN
THE SOUTHEAST IS STILL WARRANTED BUT I THINK THE TREND WILL BE TO
END IT QUICKER...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEING ADVECTED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...KEPT A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING.

AFTER THIS...A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...NOSING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OF COURSE ONLY THE GFS IS
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO WHERE THE EURO IS DRY. HPC HAS FAVORED THE
MORE ACTIVE GFS AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME IN ITS GRAPHIC BUT DOES NOT
NOTE ANY ELEVATED CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THEIR FORECAST. OPTED TO LEAN
WETTER TOWARDS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND A GENERAL SOUTHEAST
FLOW WARMING THE OHIO VALLEY A LITTLE EACH DAY FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CU HAS BEGUN TO POP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTN. A TEMPORARY CIG IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THIS AFTN...WITH GUSTS UP IN THE LOWER 20 KTS. THE GUSTS SHOULD
DIE OFF AROUND 23Z.

MODELS THEN BRING IN AN 40-50 KTS H8 JET THIS EVENING. ON THE NOSE
OF THIS JET...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ACT TO DEVELOP SOME 4-5KT
FOOT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,


THE H8 MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO GET SHUNTED NWD AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED OUT THE SRN TAFS AT THE H8 LEVEL...BUT LEFT AN AC DECK
ABOVE. ACROSS THE NRN TAFS...THE MOISTURE DOESNT CLEAR UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

WINDS AT H8 WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 14Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...SITES