Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181441 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1041 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area this evening and move through tonight. The front will stall Wednesday morning near the Ohio River. The front will lift back northward by Wednesday evening and an area of low pressure will move along the front Wednesday night through Thursday. Cooler air will filter in behind the front as it begins to move east Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid level shortwave moving through the Great Lakes with associated surface cold front dropping into nw Ohio by 00z Wednesday. Models generally similar with precipitation developing in pre-frontal trough ahead of this front. Have continued chance pops...ramping up to likely this evening. Marginal instability axis develops, so have included a mention of thunder. In well mixed warm sector, expect wind gusts up to 35 mph. Highs look to be close to 20 degrees above normal in the lower and middle 80s. Record highs for today will be approached or exceeded. Current records are; 83 for Columbus, 86 for both Dayton and Cincinnati. Previous discussion... Gusty southwesterly winds will be present today. Best mixing of higher wind gusts are expected to be from mid morning through early afternoon. The highest wind gusts are expected to be near and northwest of Interstate 71. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph with isolated gusts upwards of 40 mph will be possible. Winds will stay up through the day, however expect slightly lower gusts later in the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Temperatures will be near record high values today. Went warmer than guidance for high temperatures today with the strong southwesterly flow. A thin band of precipitation will begin to work into northwestern portions of the forecast area at the end of the near term.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Frontal boundary will continue to work through the region tonight before stalling near the Ohio River by Wednesday morning. A thin area of precipitation is expected along the front as it moves through. Precipitation coverage is expected to decrease through the night therefore started with categorical precipitation chances across northern portions of the forecast area and dropped to chance precipitation chances across the far south. There is some instability along the front and therefore have thunder mention in the forecast. There is some model variability on how quickly this front lifts northward. The ECMWF seems to be too fast and an outlier. Gradually lift this feature northward into Wednesday night. Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm Wednesday evening across southwestern portions of the forecast area. An area of low pressure rides along the front increasing precipitation chances Thursday into Thursday night. Models are in very good agreement with precipitation during the Thursday into Thursday evening time frame. Guidance values are very high and WPC has part of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. There is strong upper level support with this system. With all of these things in mind went ahead with 100 pops for precipitation during this time. Better instability is across the southeastern half of the forecast area and therefore focused thunder chances there. Colder air will move into the region Thursday night. With cold air advection have winds picking up and wind gusts in the forecast as well. Cannot rule out some 30 mph wind gusts at times. Precipitation will begin to taper off Thursday night into Friday, however some lake enhanced rain showers will be possible. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The ECMWF and CMC are indicating some secondary short wave energy dropping down the back side of the trough heading into Saturday. This would help keep a broader trough back across our region into the weekend. Will therefore hang on to some lower end pops for Saturday, primarily across northeastern portions of our forecast area. Mid and upper level ridging will then try to build in from the southwest through the first part of next week, keeping our region in a general northwest flow pattern. This will allow for some weak energy to drop down across the area Sunday into Monday, but timing and placement is uncertain so will maintain a dry forecast for now. A colder airmass will settle into the region behind the front for late in the week. This will lead to below normal temperatures Saturday with highs mainly in the 50s. We should then see a gradual moderation to highs back into the 60s through the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... South winds will gust to 25 to 30 kt and then diminish towards 21z. Cumulus will develop early in the TAF period and then become a VFR ceiling. Showers will develop ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Have stayed with VCSH for the initial issuance given uncertainty in coverage and thus whether precipitation will actually occur at any of the terminals. As the cold front moves through ceilings will lower to MVFR and may eventually drop to below 2000 ft. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected Wednesday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely late Wednesday night into Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... -------------------------Cincinnati-----Columbus-------Dayton---- 10/18 record warm lows - 67 in 1905 --- 65 in 2007 --- 65 in 1947 10/18 record highs ----- 86 in 1938 --- 83 in 1938 --- 86 in 1908 .......................................................1910 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak/AR SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION... CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.