Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202014 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 414 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS INDIANA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH. DRIVEN BY A RAPIDLY MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE MAIN BODY OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. A RELATIVELY HUMID AND WELL MIXED AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE. RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH. NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER INDIANA...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. TIMING OUT THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE AIRPORTS...TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER HAVE NOW BEEN INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VERY SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...SWITCHING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR CEILINGS FOR THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS TAF SITES...AND MVFR CEILINGS FOR CINCINNATI. IT IS NOT EXACTLY CERTAIN WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON TUESDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER SUNRISE. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

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