Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251818 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 218 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC CANADA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW. EMBEDDED VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO DROP ESE ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. LATEST VIS SATL IMGRY LOOP SHOWS THAT THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ABOUT I-70. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER SRN OHIO AND NRN KY. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS GOING A LTL MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH. BASED ON CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH EASTWARD. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS OF OF THE LAKE. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN GENERALLY THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF POSITION...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS FOR FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE FROM RUN TO RUN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION. COOLEST LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION FOR FRIDAYS HIGHS. AS STATED...MODELS DIVERGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND. EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO ROUND WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS EITHER TRY TO BODILY MOVE THIS ENERGY THROUGH OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...OR BRING IT JUST TO OUR WEST...AND ALLOW IT TO CLOSE OFF...MEANDERING OR DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE REASON FOR THE DIFFERENCES IS THAT THERE IS A STRUGGLE ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE ENERGY AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE DEVELOP OVER TOP OF IT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. GIVEN SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE OUTCOME...HAVE CONTINUED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND HAVE PLACED A SIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PCPN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MORE LATE AUGUST VALUES WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A S/W ROTATING AROUND A LARGE LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WAS RESULTING IN VFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET ACRS THE TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS MAY THIN SOME AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A STRONGER S/W IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED VFR CLOUDS INTO WED. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLUK. IF CLOUDS STAY SCATTERED FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION THEN FOG WILL BE LKLY. EXPECT THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP AND THEN IMPROVE AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THEN AT 10 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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