Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 190901 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 401 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states will extend up into the region into the weekend. This will keep southwesterly flow across the area, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming of temperatures through the end of the work week. The next chance of precipitation will be Saturday night into Sunday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered down in the Gulf Coast states will keep the area dry today. The pressure gradient on the north side of the high will keep winds up. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Some scattered cirrus will drop down from the upper Great Lakes, but skies will still be mostly sunny. Warm air advection at the surface and aloft will push temperatures above freezing. Highs will range from the mid 30s in the north to the upper 30s around the Ohio River.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As the high begins to transition east tonight, southerly flow will continue. Skies will remain mostly clear as scattered cirrus works through the region in the zonal flow. Lows are forecast to drop back to the mid to upper 20s. On Saturday, low level moisture begins to increase. A couple of models are still suggesting that light showers might develop in the wwa on Saturday. Stayed with the majority of forecasts and kept Saturday dry for now. The warming trend will continue, with highs pushing into the 40s across the region. Scattered showers develop Saturday night on the backside of the high. Temperatures will only drop into the mid 30s. On Sunday, the best chance of rain will gradually shift north during the day. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs generally between the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid/upper level flow to back with and deepening surface wave ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. Models solutions diverge on exact timing but slower trend continues with system and associated associated surface cold front expected to sweep east through ILN/s FA later Monday/Monday night . Therefore, will ramp rain pops Monday afternoon into Monday night. On the warm side of the system, above normal temperatures to continue with highs from near 50 northwest to the upper 50s southeast. With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes, a chance of precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain changing to snow. The best chance will occur across the north counties, closer to the upper lows. Temperatures turn closer to normal with highs Tuesday from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build across the region. This feature will provide dry weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures will continue close to normal with Wednesdays highs from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures will moderate slightly Thursday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail for the foreseeable future. Warm advection will begin to kick in today as south winds around 8-10kt overnight increase to a fairly uniform 14-15kt during the better part of the day, relaxing again in the evening. Do not see the potential for much gustiness given warm advection over a snow pack. Cirrus cloud deck will be prevalent more to the north and northwest of the region. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts to 25kt possible Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.