Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201035 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 635 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV ARE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP TO THE WEST BUT THESE ARE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. THE TRUE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT STILL APPEARS TO LIE OVER WESTERN INDIANA. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SCIOTO VALLEY BY MIDDAY...AND MAY SERVE AS THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TIME LOCATION THESE MAY FORM...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BASED ROUGHLY ON RECENT HIGH RES RUNS. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WESTERN CWA DRY. THERE IS A SLIGHT SUPPRESSION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH DIGGING ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TROUGHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JETS IMPINGE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN INSERTED THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND STRONG THETA-E AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ABOUT HOW SOON THIS WILL ONSET ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF STORMS WHICH TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASED SHEAR...INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY ONGOING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SPECIFIC FEATURES BECOME LESS DISCERNIBLE...ALTHOUGH GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME LOW 90S CREEP IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS AND HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST BOTH DAY. AFTER SOME UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MANY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LEADING TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE FORCING. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SAG SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FORECASTS POINT TO THE WARMEST WEATHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS SUMMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGHER READINGS TENDING TO BE IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCVG...KLUK AND KILN THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO...BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE KCMH/KLCK DRY. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CUMULUS WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 17Z. FOR TONIGHT...OUR REGION WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPR LVL CLOSED LOW DIGGING TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. LEFT OVER FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL IMPINGE ON THIS BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL WORK TOGETHER WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HAVE PLACED -SHRA AND VCTS/CB AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS. BEST CHANCE FOR KCMH/KLCK SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...SNYDER SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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