Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 201859 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 259 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and thunderstorms are expected into tonight as a cold front pushes east across the region. The front will stall out to our south on Friday before lifting back to the north over the weekend. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers Friday night into Saturday. A cooler airmass will settle into the area for the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along the pre frontal boundary moving across Indiana. MLCapes across that area are in the 500-1000 J/kg range but they do drop off some to the east across our area. As a result, there is some uncertainty as to how well this activity will maintain its strength as it moves into our area. This initial wave of showers may also help stabilize the airmass a bit which could also results in some question as to the strength of the secondary batch of storms developing across eastern Illinois as they move eastward. At the moment, deep layer shear is marginal across our area with 0-6 km values in the 20-25 knot range. This is forecast to increase from the northwest between 21Z-03Z as some better upper level energy works into our area. This will also be accompanied by some cooler air aloft which could also aid in some enhancement to the instability. Therefore, some uncertainty exists in regard to the severe threat as we head through late afternoon and into the early evening hours. It still seems that the best threat will be across our northwest where the better deep layer shear will develop. With some decent mixing across the area this afternoon, dcapes have pushed up close to 1000 J/kg across parts of our area so if we are able to get some stronger storms, damaging wind appears to be the primary threat. The storms should be fairly progressive but PWs do push up to around 1.5 inches through early evening. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms with some localized flooding possible with training storms. The cold front will push east across the area later tonight with pcpn tapering off from the northwest overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The front will continue to move off to the south through the day on Friday with high pressure trying to work in from the north. Suppose we could see a few lingering showers across our far south into Friday morning but for the most part expect dry conditions. Cooler air filtering in behind the front will lead to more seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from the upper 50s in the northwest to the mid and upper 60s in the southeast. A developing surface wave will help the boundary to begin to lift back to the north Friday night. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers across our south through the night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Extensive low pressure tracking across Tennessee along a slow moving frontal boundary will bring showers Saturday. Southern locations should see the bulk of showers, and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible there as well in an environment containing elevated instability. Rain chances will gradually diminish Saturday night into Sunday as the system works east. Weak high pressure is forecast to bring dry conditions Monday into Tuesday. A wave of low pressure traveling through the Great Lakes may result in a few more showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional showers could affect mainly northern locations Thursday when a warm front is forecast to develop across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will start below normal for Saturday, with highs in the mid 50s limited by clouds, precip, and cold advection on a northeast low level flow. A rebound to near normal upper 60s can be expected by Monday due to warm advection and reduced cloud cover, with further warm advection making above normal 70s probable Tuesday through Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Good mixing across the area this afternoon has allowed for some gusty southwesterly winds to develop. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms have developed back to our west across Indiana along a pre frontal boundary. This boundary will push east into our area through late afternoon, followed by a cold front that will move through our area later tonight. This will lead to occasional showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the 22Z-03Z time frame. As the front moves through, precipitation will taper off from the northwest overnight. Expect mainly VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms through the early portions of the TAF period. However, as the front moves through, some lingering low level moisture will likely allow for some more widespread MVFR cloud development late tonight into Friday morning. Any MVFR cigs should scatter out or lift into VFR by the later Friday morning and into the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.