Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141907 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 307 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push east across the region through the day on Sunday, leading to a chance of showers and breezy conditions. A drier and cooler airmass will then settle into the area through the first part of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Skies are mostly clear over the area this afternoon with the exception of some scattered AC across our northeast. Expect mainly clear skies to persist into this evening but then we should begin to see some increasing clouds later tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. As the pressure gradient begins to tighten, winds should also begin to pick up somewhat later tonight. This will likely lead to earlier lows this evening with steady and possibly slowly rising temperatures late tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Mid level short wave energy will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley through the day on Sunday. This will help push a cold front east across our area through early afternoon. Deeper moisture is somewhat limited and the models are in decent agreement that the instability will remain pretty marginal along and ahead of the front through the day. As a result, will continue to just go with likely showers with a slight chance of some embedded thunderstorms along/just ahead of the front. The wind fields are fairly strong so if we are able to destabilize enough, suppose a very low end severe threat would not be out of the question across our far east. As the cold front moves through and we start to get into some CAA, expect to see some non diurnal temperatures, especially across the east where the highs should occur fairly early in the day. A tightening pressure gradient will also lead to breezy conditions through the day with wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range possible. A drier and cooler airmass will then filter into the area behind the front Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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For Monday, a cold front pushed by an upper trough will be east of the area. An expansive area of high pressure following the front will stretch across most of the CONUS under a confluent zonal flow aloft. High pressure and a dry airmass are then forecast to remain over the region through the end of the long term. Current model projections suggest no precipitation in a regime of subsidence and low humidity, with rain chances close to zero through Saturday. Temperatures will be below normal to start due to cold advection on a northerly flow behind the front, with highs reaching the upper 50s on Monday. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night when lows will fall into the 30s under clear and calm conditions, especially in eastern locations. A gradual warming trend under increasing geopotential heights and a southerly low level flow will allow highs to reach the low to mid 70s by late next week, about 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... We are still seeing some lingering AC across our north and this may clip the central Ohio TAFs over the next hour or two. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear across the area through the rest of the afternoon. Clouds will then begin to increase and lower later tonight and into early Sunday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This will eventually allow for some showers to spread in from the west through mid morning and then linger into early to mid afternoon. Instability is very marginal so while an isolated embedded thunderstorm will be possible, the chance appears too low to mention in the TAFs. As the pressure gradient tightens up ahead the front, southwest winds will increase through the morning with gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range possible toward the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL

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