Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160713 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 313 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES UNTIL SUNRISE. FROST WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE MORNING. STRONG MID APRIL SUN WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...AM ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THAT RESIDE IN THE FROST FREEZE PROGRAM AT THIS TIME. RETURN FLOW WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS VARY A BIT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP PRECIPITATION IN TACT ACROSS OUR AREA ARE THE SREF AND GFS. CMC/ECMWF/NAM ARE DRIER. AM FORECASTING 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LOW END POPS ELSEWHERE FOR FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A DRIER SOLUTION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP...WITH MAXIMUMS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FILTERING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...JUST EXPECT TO JUST SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082- 088. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ077>082-088. KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075- 080. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR INZ073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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