Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200151 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 951 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AREA OF CI HAS WORKED INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE FA THIS EVENING. ITS WWD PUSHED HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED AND EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO SLIP BACK E AND WHILE DISSIPATING. THE WRN AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN HARDIN AND LOGAN COUNTIES HAVE COOLED QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO LOWERED THEIR LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES. THIS PUTS IT AROUND 35 DEGREES...SO ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST MENTION. OTHERWISE KEPT PREVIOUS LOWS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S GOING...WITH SOME UPPER 30S E OF CMH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH FEW CLOUDS AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM REACHING HEADLINE LEVELS. HOWEVER...RH VALUES MAY AGAIN GET SOMEWHAT LOW...AND ATTENTION WAS PAID TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON (WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT VALUES DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE RAW MODEL CONSENSUS). WITH ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUN...COMBINED WITH A WIND SHIFT TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN (SSE)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A LARGE LATITUDINAL EXTENT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THIS LOW...AND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING WITH THE 12Z RUNS...MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY STRONG. PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD BE OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 06Z...AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BY 12Z. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK AND NARROW...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF THUNDER...BUT PROBABLY NOT VERY MUCH. WITH COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARING TO BE INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH THE CWA IN A REGIME OF SSW FLOW. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND MIN TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT WERE INCREASED BY A COUPLE DEGREES EACH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...LEFT LIKELY SHRA WITH CHANCE THUNDER AND THEN DIMINISHING POPS WITH FROPA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE HIGHER HERE WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE WEST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR WED IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND THEN THE BEGINNING OF RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING HIGHS ON THU GENERALLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WED. SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH FRIDAYS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH TREND OF GFS IS BECOMING FASTER. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE PRECIP TIMING AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY...THEN LEFT LINGERING LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPR LOW TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA OF CI IS WORKING BACK TO THE W AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP THE CI APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF CONVECTION OVER WV/VA. THE MODELS TAKE THE OVERALL SYSTEM CLOUD PRODUCING SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST. SO FEEL THAT THE CI WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND PULL BACK EAST BY 04Z. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THRU SUNRISE. AFT SUNRISE SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A S TO SE DIRECTION. CI WILL SPILL IN FROM THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTN. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...SITES

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