Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 030833 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 433 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE MCS OVER THE NRN CWFA. THIS MCS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES ALMOST DUE SOUTH. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL AT ALL AS ITS PURE MOMENTUM IS MOVING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY ARE ADVERTISING. HOWEVER...IT IS MOVING INTO A MUCH LESS FAVORABLE REGION IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...AND IT IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL AND UPR LVL FORCING WHICH IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SE CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. BY MID MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE PCPN THREAT AS THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE BY THIS TIME. BY AFTERNOON...OUR FOCUS WILL TURN TO A SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOW WIDESPREAD IT MAY BECOME WILL DEPEND ON SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM NEARBY UPR LVL JET MAXES. BEST FOCUS PER VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70...MORE TOWARD CINCINNATI...CHILLICOTHE AND POINTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE CELLS (TILTED UPDRAFTS) SHOULD OCCUR. AS A RESULT...SWODY1 HAS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AS STATED...THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE OVER OUR SRN TWO THIRDS CWFA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA. EVENING CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR A LITTLE AFTER. ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE FOUND OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE REGION LONGER. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EMBEDDED S/WV ACTIVITY THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL MOVE IN BY THEN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REGARDING THE POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...AND TRACK OF AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY MAY BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AND THE BRUNT OF A SHORTWAVE ALSO OCCURS TO OUR SOUTH. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ON FRIDAY. FAVORED DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...AND A THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...AND WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS ALSO WHEN ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS THAT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS WILL BE CERTAIN TO BE AFFECTED. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...BPP/HICKMAN AVIATION...HATZOS

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