Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 220524
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
124 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017
An upper level low pressure system will allow for cool, cloudy,
and at times wet conditions tonight through part of the day on
Sunday. High pressure and dry conditions will return for Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Light rain showers have begun to overspread portions of the FA
from the WSW this evening. Although some radar returns are
appearing north of I-70 this evening, most of measurable pcpn
should stay along/south of this corridor. Latest hi-res models
have hinted that this overrunning pcpn may move east of the FA
late tonight towards the end of the near term period before more
rain moves in toward the very beginning of the short-term
period. This may allow for a brief break in pcpn for some areas
north of the Ohio River late tonight before steady rain again
overspreads the S/SE third of the FA early Saturday.
Have made very little adjustment to low temps this evening as
temp trends seem right on track for lows ranging from the lower
40s in the north to around 50 in the south.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
An upper level low will help usher in additional rain /some of
it moderate and steady/ at the beginning of the short-term
period. Latest guidance continues to hint at the potential for a
very sharp northern cutoff gradient with the activity Saturday
morning into the early afternoon. This being said, did not have
confidence to pull PoPs across the central part of the CWA,
although did trend steadiest/heaviest pcpn a bit further south
with this update. May need to continue trend in further updates
if data continues to suggest that the northern 2/3 of the area
may be mostly dry during the day.
Still have fairly high confidence in a steady soaking rain
across most of northern KY and parts of the lower Scioto Valley
Saturday morning and early afternoon before activity becomes
more scattered late in the afternoon into the evening. Showers
may linger in these areas on-and-off through the end of the
short-term period, especially for northeastern KY and south-
With the expected thick cloud cover and pcpn in parts of area
on Saturday, the FA may end up with a bit of an unusual temp
gradient, with warmest conditions in the north and coolest
conditions in the south. This being said, with sfc winds out of
the northeast area-wide, it is still shaping up to be a bit of a
cool day, with highs in lower to mid 50s in the north and
around 50 in the south. In fact, would not be surprised to see
a few locations across nrthrn KY remain in the 40s throughout
With cloud cover expected to linger in the area Saturday night,
do not foresee temperatures dropping very much from daytime
highs. Lows will range from around 40 in the north to mid 40s in
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level low over the Ohio Valley Sunday to drift slowly south
into the southeast U.S. Monday. Under the influence of this low will
carry a continued chance of showers south Sunday into Monday. Highs
will be close to normal and generally in the mid 60s.
Precipitation to end with surface high pressure building in early
next week. Temperatures will warm about a category above normal with
Monday/s highs from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Southerly flow to develop on the backside of retreating surface high
pressure. Under the influence of WAA temperatures will be around 10
degrees above normal with highs on Tuesday in the lower and middle
Latest model soln trends more progressive with s/w tracking thru the
Great Lakes and associated cold front dropping through the Ohio
Valley. Have brought chance of showers/thunderstorms into the area
Wednesday and then diminish pops early Thursday with the front
pushing into the TN Vly. Highs look warm both Wednesday and Thursday
generally from 75 to 80.
Surface low to eject northeast from the central plains into the
upper MS Vly Thursday night into Friday. Front to lift back north as
warm front late Thursday night. Best moisture and lift to our west,
so have limited pops to slight chance. In warm sector under strong
WAA expect highs Friday to range from 80 northwest to 85
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --One area of rain is currently moving east through the TAF sites,
though conditions have generally remained VFR. This rain will
mostly clear the area over the next few hours, leaving the
northern TAF sites dry. Another chance of rain is expected for
KCVG/KLUK after 11Z, and some MVFR ceilings may be possible
before or during the rain. However, overall, flight conditions
are not expected to deteriorate significantly. With drier
conditions in the forecast for the rest of the TAF sites, this
represents a change in the previous forecast, as it now looks
like most of the second area of rain will remain south of
Once the rain has passed, some VFR mid clouds will likely
persist. Winds are expected to be out of the NE through the
period, sustained at around 10 knots, with gusts up to around 20
knots at times.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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