Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191826 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 226 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary across the region will act as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today into Saturday. A cold front will move into the region Sunday, providing a greater chance for precipitation, before drier and cooler conditions move into the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Most of the forecast area is dry this morning with a cold front stalled just north of Interstate 70. A line of showers and thunderstorms that was going out in Illinois this morning has continued to push east and weakened. An MCV has also formed in Illinois currently. This afternoon a wedge of PV will move across the area with a weak surface low reflection corresponding to the MCV. High res models have struggled immensely with resolving this feature and what will eventually happen. Forecast soundings for this afternoon do destabilize with even the RAP showing about 1300 J/kg of CAPE. PWATs for this afternoon remain around 1.2 - 1.3" which is above the 75th percentile for this time of year. Given the lift from the PVA, the stalled boundary, and instability have introduced likely PoPs into the forecast. DCAPE values also are forecasted to approach 1000 J/kg and with sufficient shear profiles SPC has introduced a slight risk across the CWA. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with large hail also possible. It should be noted that as convection gets going locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Earlier convection from this morning produced isolated rainfall totals over 2" in some spots. Due to this potential have added a heavy rainfall mention in the HWO. Prev Discussion-> Convection continues to bubble across the fa as a cdfnt drops south. Latest mesoscale models are indicating that the convection will see a minimum around sunrise this morning before beginning to redevelop with the heating of the day. Atmosphere becomes moderately unstable by afternoon as CAPES reach 2-3K J/kg. Timing and placement for any one location will be difficult due to the pop-up nature of the storms. The best coverage of storms should be late in the afternoon. Decided to keep PoPs in the chance category based on the uncertainty. Highs this afternoon will see a big range across the fa. West Central Ohio will be north of the front. Highs will only make the lower 70s. Temperatures will increase rapidly, reaching only lower 80s around the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The front will linger across region the tonight, before lifting northward on Saturday. Afternoon convection will linger into the evening hours, but should decrease as the night progresses. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s in the extreme northern counties to the mid 60s in nrn KY. On Saturday, the H5 low will pushing out thru the Great Plains. In response a sfc low will develop and lift ne into the upper MS valley. This is where the best coverage of thunderstorms will be. They will remain scattered in nature across the fa. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface wave tracks across the Great Lakes with associated cold front pushing east across the region Sunday. Model solutions generally a little quicker with the frontal passage. This will bring an enhanced chance for thunderstorms. Have continued likely pops with a period of categorical during the afternoon. With clouds and precipitation, temperatures will be a little cooler, with Sundays highs ranging from the mid 70s west to 80 east. A lingering chance of a post frontal rain shower Sunday night and then drying out Monday as surface high pressure providing a temporary dry period early next week. Cooler temperatures expected Monday with highs a little below normal, ranging from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Jet energy to carve out mid/upr level low over the Mid MS Vly next week. ECMWF is deeper and further east, so pcpn onset a little delayed and lingers longer. GFS solution is less amplified and more progressive. Uncertainty increases with model solutions diverging on timing and amplitude of this system. Have chance pops developing Tuesday afternoon and across the region Wednesday. Have lingered chance pops into early Thursday and then diminish pops as the upper low is expected to shift east. Highs Tuesday will be close to normal with and generally 70 to 75, and then cooler Wednesday from the lower 60s nw to upper 60s se. Cool readings expected to continue next Thursday with highs in the mid and upper 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Showers and thunderstorms have formed just west and east of the TAF sites this afternoon with all locations currently VFR. An upper level disturbance can currently be seen on WV heading east with numerous thunderstorms developing out ahead. Latest suite of high res have these showers and thunderstorms pushing east and affecting the eastern TAF sites starting around 21z. Inside heavier thunderstorms IFR or lower restrictions to visibility will be possible. As the shortwave heads east a brief period of subsidence will occur. As this happens the weak front will sag south. Light winds with plenty of moisture will allow fog/ mist to form. Low ceilings will also be possible (esp. if winds remain slightly elevated) behind the boundary. The main question with the cigs vs. fog will be the placement of the boundary. For now have trended TAFs towards the NAM solution which pushes the front slightly further south. During the late morning/ early afternoon Saturday another batch of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the warm front lifts north. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Haines/Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR/Sites AVIATION...Haines

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