Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 156 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will dominate the weather over the weekend before finally breaking down at the beginning of next week. Hot and humid conditions are expected through the weekend with heat index values above 100 degrees. Periods of storms will form through the weekend due to the high levels of moisture. The chance for precipitation increases early next week with the expected passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Cu field has developed early this afternoon but expect that it will slowly scatter out through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Areal obs show most locations have reached into the upper 80s already, with only a few places still in the mid 80s, especially where there are higher dewpoints. Nevertheless, temps are still on track for the lower 90s area wide, so expect that heat indices should still near or exceed 100 degrees by late afternoon. Despite large amounts on instby, the cap will likely hold with lack of focused lift/forcing across the area. Therefore, have trimmed back PoPs even further to account for this, keeping just a slight chance for several hours during peak heating late this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Isold storms which develop in the heating of the day will quickly dissipate this evening. Expect the remainder of the night to stay dry with humid lows in the lower and middle 70s. Another hot and humid day for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices of 100 to 103 degrees. Have mentioned these hot conditions with the expectation that additional heat headlines may be required. Again a good deal of uncertainty exists regarding convection on Sunday. With the upper level ridge sliding east into the Ohio valley would not be surprised if the area remains dry. Have limited pops to 15 percent (slight chance) during the afternoon with a lack of forcing. Shortwave energy moving thru the Great Lakes flattens the northern portion of the ridge with a surface cold front pushing into the area Monday. Have introduced high chance pops into the nw late Sunday night and then spread these pops across the entire cwa Monday. Due to clouds and pcpn temperatures will be slightly cooler Monday ranging from the upper 80s nw to the lower 90s se. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday into Wednesday the front will remained stalled just south of the area and slowly start to wash out. Even behind the front though 850 temperatures are forecasted to be around 18 degrees C so am expecting temperatures near climo. Late Wednesday into Thursday a shortwave will approach the area from the west finally washing the leftover stationary front out. As this happens higher PWATs will again wash over the area with 2.00" + values moving in. Have trended PoPs up towards the end of the long term to account for this. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Cu field has developed this morning and afternoon, but expect that it will slowly scatter out through 00z Sunday. VFR conditions will continue through the early overnight period before calm winds and a very moist airmass once again allow BR to create VSBY restrictions in the 08-12z time frame. Expect that VSBY restrictions will be greatest at KLUK, with TEMPO MVFR VSBYs likely for KCVG, KDAY, KILN, KCMH, and KLCK. Expect that mid/high level clouds will be on the increase from the northwest after 12z Sunday, but CIGS/VSBYs will remain VFR for the end of the TAF period. There remains uncertainty regarding potential shower/storm development on Sunday, so refrained from including at this time. Light winds will continue out of the south on Sunday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday through Monday and again Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ061- 077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.