Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 122331 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 631 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will bring accumulating snow and brisk winds tonight, before moving east. High pressure and cold conditions are forecast for Saturday and Sunday. A clipper will bring snow on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Surface low pressure entering West Virginia is being driven by a closed upper low pushing through Central Kentucky. Precipitation has developed in the moist ascent ahead of the upper low, while precip type is being dictated by the northerly low level winds circulating in around the surface low. We are witnessing a change from rain and freezing rain to snow as colder air filters in from the north. This trend will continue through the evening hours, with snow expected in all zones by late this evening. Latest model guidance suggested that some of our counties in S Central Ohio and NE Kentucky will reach warning criteria of 4 inches, so expanded Winter Storm Warning that is already in effect to include Adams, Scioto, Lewis, Mason, and Robertson Counties. Rest of area under advisory with about 3 inches expected should stay below warning thresholds, so advisory remains in effect there. As the system departs east later this evening through tonight, snow will end from west to east, and strong winds will be observed, with gusts near 40 mph possible, especially across northern counties. Blowing snow will become evident as winds reach these values. Colder temperatures carried by the brisk winds will result in low temperatures in the teens, and some sub zero wind chills. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure positioned under the axis of an upper trough will push in for Saturday and Saturday night. This dry airmass and its subsidence will likely prevent measurable precip from occurring. Much colder temperatures will be noted, with highs reaching from the mid teens north up to around 20 south. Lows Saturday night around 5 above are expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For Sunday, a mean mid level trough will have established itself across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Arctic high pressure will be traversing the region from west to east during the day. It will remain cold with highs in the upper teens to the lower 20s. Models continue to depict a dynamic s/wv to dig from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday night with a closed mid level low circulation developing. At the surface, low pressure and another arctic cold front will be moving through the region. The likelihood of snow is being forecast. It looks like at least a couple inches of snow region wide with the potential for local higher amounts. Best chance for snow should be on Monday with it tapering off Monday night in the wake of the front. There will be a brief warm up on Monday with highs ranging from the mid 20s north to the lower 30s south. Lows by Tuesday morning will range from near zero in the west to the lower teens in the east. These temperatures with west winds between 5 and 10 mph will result in wind chill values of -10 to -15 below zero for parts of the Whitewater and Miami Valleys (Dayton metro) along with west central Ohio. Elsewhere, wind chill values will range from 0 to -10 below zero. Upper level low will be slow to eject to the east/northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. We may see a few instability flurries on Tuesday. It will remain cold during this period. For Wednesday night into Thursday, upper low will be moving farther away, allowing high pressure at the surface to build into the area. It will still be cold with highs in the 20s. Upper level flow pattern will transition to a zonal and then southwesterly direction as we head into the weekend. This will result in a warming trend. Highs on Friday will warm into the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Snow will continue to affect the TAF sites over the next few hours. Ceilings are bouncing between MVFR and IFR levels, with visibilities generally IFR in the snow, though some pockets of heavy snow are still producing LIFR conditions. As time progresses, the chances for heavy snow will decrease, leading to MVFR conditions becoming more likely. Once the snow ends, conditions should just be MVFR by way of ceilings, with some breaks expected by morning. Winds will continue to be an issue overnight, with northerly winds sustained in the 15-20 knot range, gusting as high as 30-35 knots at most. MVFR ceilings will be possible at times tomorrow, with the northerly winds diminishing in intensity as the day goes on. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Monday and Monday night with snow. MVFR ceilings may continue at times into Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-070-071-077>079. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ063>065- 072>074-080>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for KYZ089>097. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for KYZ098>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hatzos

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