Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280000 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 800 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN QUICKLY BACK TO SOUTHERN OHIO. FOR THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HIGH RES MODELS HAVE IT SLOWLY BREAKING APART AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST AND SPLITTING NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DOES NOT HAVE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE ALSO IS SOME LEFT OVER DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO COME THIS EVENING. THIS IS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH WHICH WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF POPS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT 250 MB LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING WITH THE ILN CWA JUST EAST OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB FROM 12Z REVEALED GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHICH IS FORECASTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA THIS EVENING. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE ABOVE 1.50" VIA THE NAM AND GFS (NEAR THE MAX DAILY VALUE). OMEGA VALUES ALSO SHOW STRONG LIFT MOVING OVERHEAD AROUND 3Z. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. K INDEX VALUES ALSO RISE TO AROUND 37 AT CVG. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH AS SOUNDINGS AT CMH SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO PICK UP IN SPEED AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE ABOVE SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IN GENERAL HIGH RES MODELS HAS THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST LEAVING THE AREA IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ZONE. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE (SUPPORTED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS). BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE WITH HIGHEST CAPE VALUES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG WHILE THE GFS HAS VALUES JUST SHY OF 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LEFT OVER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A SHORT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THINK OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS. ON FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FRONT LYING ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL ADVERSELY INFLUENCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT NORTHERN SITES ILN DAY CMH AND LCK. WHILE MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT CVG AND LUK...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN THERE SOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH. THOUGH ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SHOWERS TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW A WEAKENING TREND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION HELPS TO FURTHER MOISTEN LOW LEVELS. A RETURN TO MVFR IS FORECAST AROUND 14Z WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR MAY BE ATTAINED AROUND 18Z AT CVG AND LUK...WHILE ILN DAY CMH AND LCK MAY SEE MVFR PERSIST TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT THIS POINT. LATER FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE NEED. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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