Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202354 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 754 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross southeast through the area tonight, wash out between the I-70 corridor and the Ohio River on Wednesday, and lift northeast of the region Wednesday night. A stronger cold front will cross the region later on Friday. In the wake of Fridays front, colder air will be pushed into the region with below normal temperatures expected for the latter part of the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Fair weather cu will dissipate quickly this evening. Upstream bkn deck of mid level cloud cover currently near Lake Michigan will move into northern CWA later this evening and then stretch eastward into central Ohio as the whole system moves slowly south overnight. A few sprinkles or a light shower are possible as the surface front associated with the passage of an upper level shortwave moves to the south overnight. Depending on how thick the cloud cover is and the extent of its southern edge, temps tonight will generally hang up to within a few degrees of 60s tonight, and be warmer to the north under the thicker cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A lingering light shower or more specifically sprinkles under more cloudy conditions will be found tomorrow between the I-70 corridor and the Ohio River, focused on the eastern portions of the CWA. This is as the surface front strings out and the upper level forcing exits to the east. Highs will be in the mid 80s, with overnight lows dropping to the mid 60s under an increasingly moist airmass. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Zonal flow with a band of westerlies across the Great Lakes at mid week. Initial embedded shortwave, along with moderate instability will lead to a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Better bulk shear and instability is expected to be located across the north with better moisture across the south. Have adjusted chance category pops with highest pops north and south and a relative min across the central FA. Temperatures look to be around 5 degrees above normal with highs on Thursday in the upper 80s. More significant shortwave and associated surface frontal system to drop into the area as moisture increases from the south ahead of the remnants of a tropical system Friday. Will bump up pops to categorical south and likely elsewhere. Temperatures look to be closer to normal with highs Friday generally in the lower 80s. Remnants of tropical system to get caught up in the westerlies and track through the TN/OH valleys Friday night/Saturday. Model spread exists regarding the exact track and timing of this system. However, consensus forecasts suggests that the heavy rain axis will remain south ILN/s FA. Will diminish pops from northwest to south late Friday night into Saturday. Expect Saturdays highs around 80. Mid level trof to develop over the Great Lakes Sunday. Model solutions less amplified with this trof. Will limit pops to low chance far north and slight chance elsewhere Sunday. Expect Sundays highs to range from the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. With the mid level trof lagging across the Great Lakes can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday. Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be cooler with highs in the mid/upper 70s. Surface high pressure to build across the Ohio Valley keeping the region dry and cooler Tuesday. Expect Tuesdays highs in the mid/upper 70s. Return moisture on the back side of surface high pressure will lead to a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday across the north. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Convection over nrn IN will drop down towards the tafs this evening. Latest CAMs are indicating that it could hold together into KDAY. So added a VCSH to KDAY around 04Z, lasting for a couple of hours. VFR cigs from the convection will also work into the nrn tafs this evening, then the srn tafs later tonight. Models are suggesting that lingering SHRA could linger thru the night around I-70 due to an area of convergence. Left a VCSH in KCMH/KLCK for the later half of the night. Expect the mid deck to begin to erode aft 12Z Wednesday, but a VFR ceiling will probably affect KCMH/KLCK throughout the day Winds will pick back up to the 8-10kt range tomorrow. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.