Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 231852 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 252 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. MOIST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850 TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED THEIR CLIMB. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DRY DAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY SUNDAY ALLOWING 500 HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 576 DM TO NEAR 586 DM BY SUNDAY. GOING THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN YET. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 1.05" BUT ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM THERE IS A DRY SLOT STILL AROUND 850 TO 700 MB. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO RISE FROM 9 DEGREES C TO NEAR 13 DEGREES C. MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE CLOUDS FOR TOMORROW THAN TODAY BUT GIVEN THE WARMER START FOR SUNDAY AM KEEPING FORECAST WARMER SUNDAY THAN TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON MONDAY AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELPS TO PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST OPENING THE WAY FOR THE CHANCE RAIN TO RETURN. THE 850/700 DRY AIR FROM SUNDAY ERODES WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.50" ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY THAT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BOTH GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THUNDER WITH PARCELS BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT UP THROUGH THE FREEZING LAYER. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO CONTINUING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S FORECASTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...THE MID OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EAST COAST RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...PROVIDING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF THIN CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS...WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS FORMING DURING DAYTIME. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.