Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 080248 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 948 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and drier air will build in tonight and Friday. Low pressure and a cold front traveling from the northwest will bring accumulating snow on Saturday. High pressure and cold, dry conditions are forecast to return for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Cold air statocu have quickly eroded over the last couple of hours, only lingering in portions of Central and West Central Ohio. The low clouds should continue to erode. Some scattered high clouds will affect southeast sections overnight. Temperatures in the Whitewater Valley and parts of West Central oHio have dropped quickly as the clouds cleared. Therefore lowered temperatures in those areas a few degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... For Friday, surface high pressure will build near the Ohio River, aligned under the southwest flow aloft on the east flank of an upper trough. The dry airmass and subsidence associated with the high will keep precip from developing through the day. High temperatures in the low to mid 30s will be about 10 degrees below normal, even with help from partial sunshine. On Friday night, a rather potent surface low pressure system forming ahead of a sharpening mid level short wave will swing toward Ohio from the northwest. Snow is forecast to develop late Friday night in increasing moisture and lift ahead of the low, with a dusting of accumulation possible toward Saturday morning in northwest counties. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Focus for the immediate long term will be how much snow is produced from low pressure and an associated cold front moving east across our region on Saturday. Models continue to fluctuate in the amount of forcing and thus QPF. It still appears that light snow will be likely, mainly north of the Ohio River, with the highest chance expected for west central Ohio. Will continue to go with 1 to perhaps 2 inches north of I-70, with an inch or less south of I-70. Highs will mostly be in the lower 30s. For Saturday night, weather system will move off to our east with another shot of cold air filtering into the region in its wake. There could be a few snow showers early, with skies becoming partly cloudy. Dry weather is expected Sunday, but temperatures will remain cold, with highs in the lower to mid 30s. For Sunday night into Monday night, models continue to advertise a clipper system to push southeast through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Isentropic lift will be greatest north with forcing weakening as one moves south of the Ohio River. Precipitation will be developing on Monday across the north, spreading south into the evening. Precipitation will be mostly in the form of snow, with perhaps a rain/snow mix along and south of the Ohio River early on before colder air filters back into the area Monday night. Highs on Monday will warm into the mid 30s to the lower 40s with lows dropping down into the lower to mid 30s by Tuesday morning. For the remainder of the extended, Tuesday through Thursday, our region will be locked in a cold pattern as a large scale upper level trough resides across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. There will be disturbances rippling through the northwest flow from time to time. The timing of these features will be difficult to pinpoint at this juncture, so the forecast will be broad brushed with low chance PoPs for snow showers. Temperatures will remain below normal. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Band of MVFR clouds working across forecast area with CAA working into Ohio Valley. A few flurries still linger but negligent so no restrictions to visibilities. High pressure building in with downward motion and reduced moisture should lead to reduced cloud cover overnight. Winds should diminish as gradient relaxes and skies clear. Winds turning back to southwest on Friday ahead of approaching upper level system. High clouds should increase through the late afternoon and evening Friday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Padgett

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