Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 262039 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 439 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the region tonight and move across the area on Thursday. High pressure will briefly build in behind the front. Then conditions will become unsettled over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Few clouds across the region this afternoon will clear before sunset. Clouds will not start to increase again until after midnight. Some showers and embedded thunderstorms may make it into the Cincinnati Tri-State towards daybreak as a short wave lifts into the region. South winds will persist through the night and might even increase some as low level jet develops. This will keep temperatures quite mild with forecast lows on the warm side of guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Initial short wave will track northeast through the area during the morning. This will take scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms along with it. 12Z guidance has become less organized with this first round of precipitation and cannot justify anything higher than chance PoPs. Although low clouds will be left behind the precipitation, it does appear that some instability will develop as cooler temperatures aloft associated with a short wave trough spreads across the region. This may be sufficient for new development of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the area. At this point, expect activity to be scattered at most. High pressure will build in Thursday night allowing for skies to clear. Expect sufficient cloud cover to go a bit below guidance for highs Thursday while MOS seemed reasonable with lows Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday morning is the calm before the storm, as the day starts off dry. Some weak shower activity is possible nw of I-71 Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will range from the lower 70s in the nw to upper 70s along the Ohio River. While all models are suggesting a widespread rain event in the Ohio Valley beginning Friday night, there continues to be a large spread in the timing and placement of the heaviest QPF. Models bring a swath of convection ne into the region Friday night along a developing frontal boundary. It appears that the best chance of rain by 12Z Saturday while be across central Indiana into the Whitewater and upper Miami Valleys. The boundary tries to buckle northward on Saturday, pushing the better chance of rain to the north and northwest of the fa. Still held onto chance PoPs in case something pops in the warm sector. The region will see a wide range of highs for Saturday, with southern section making the mid 80s, while the nw counties will be held around 70 or the upper 60s due to the clouds and rain. As a deep H5 low kicks out of the Rockies on Sunday, the warm sector will expand northward. An isolated shower will be possible and highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Models have adjusted the timing of a strong cold front passage. The 12Z run now have the front around the Ohio/Indiana border around 12Z Monday. Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday morning with fropa. It looks like highs will be early in the day with falling temperature during the afternoon. Temperatures will be much colder behind this front for the middle of next week. Highs will be down into the 60s. Models are now suggesting that precipitation might try and develop along the Ohio River for the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Few cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating. Thereafter only a bit of high cloud until after 09Z. Winds will be a bigger issue through this time frame. South winds will gust up to 25 kt with only some lulls after 00Z. A low level jet will develop tonight which will lead to low level wind shear due to changes in wind speed with height. Wind shear will diminish towards 12Z. An area of scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will track across the region between 10Z and 17Z. That far out in time, only had enough confidence to include VCSH in the TAFs. Expect MVFR ceilings to move in behind the precipitation. Winds will veer late in the TAF period as a cold front crosses the region. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Monday. Wind gusts to 30 kt possible Sunday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...

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