Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241816 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 216 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST TODAY. BEST COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT MUCH COLDER THAN WAS THOUGHT...SO KNOCKED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS NOW RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE EXTREME NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN NRN KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE GREATER CLOSER TO THE LOW. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FED BY A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. A LULL IN SHOWERS IS INDICATED FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WHEN MOST MOISTURE AND FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR THE LOW CENTER...LEAVING THE AREA IN A RATHER WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FEATURE OF CONCERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE IN STORE. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE OFF AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING HIGHS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A CLIPPER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL GET SOME LIGHT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH SRN INDIANA INTO SW OH AND NRN KY. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THIS BATCH OF SHRA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. S/W RIDGING BUILDS IN AROUND 00Z. THIS SHOULD HELP BREAK OF THE SHOWERS AND PROVIDE A BRIEF DRY SLOT EARLY TONIGHT. MORE INTENSE H5 S/W SWINGS OUT OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 06Z. AS IT DOES...IT GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED. AT THE SFC...A CLOSED SFC LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE PULLING A CDFNT WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAFS TUESDAY MORNING PUSHING THE SHRA THROUGH THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR IN THE SHRA TOMORROW MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER SE OF THE TAFS...SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AND WILL GUST INTO THE MID 20 KTS. CIGS SHOULD GO VFR HOWEVER THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM... AVIATION...SITES

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