Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 262039
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
439 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017
A cold front will approach the region tonight and move across
the area on Thursday. High pressure will briefly build in behind
the front. Then conditions will become unsettled over the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Few clouds across the region this afternoon will clear before
sunset. Clouds will not start to increase again until after
midnight. Some showers and embedded thunderstorms may make it
into the Cincinnati Tri-State towards daybreak as a short wave
lifts into the region. South winds will persist through the
night and might even increase some as low level jet develops.
This will keep temperatures quite mild with forecast lows on the
warm side of guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Initial short wave will track northeast through the area during
the morning. This will take scattered showers and perhaps some
thunderstorms along with it. 12Z guidance has become less
organized with this first round of precipitation and cannot
justify anything higher than chance PoPs. Although low clouds
will be left behind the precipitation, it does appear that some
instability will develop as cooler temperatures aloft associated
with a short wave trough spreads across the region. This may be
sufficient for new development of showers and thunderstorms as a
cold front crosses the area. At this point, expect activity to
be scattered at most. High pressure will build in Thursday night
allowing for skies to clear. Expect sufficient cloud cover to go
a bit below guidance for highs Thursday while MOS seemed
reasonable with lows Thursday night.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday morning is the calm before the storm, as the day starts
off dry. Some weak shower activity is possible nw of I-71 Friday
afternoon. Highs on Friday will range from the lower 70s in the
nw to upper 70s along the Ohio River.
While all models are suggesting a widespread rain event in the
Ohio Valley beginning Friday night, there continues to be a
large spread in the timing and placement of the heaviest QPF. Models
bring a swath of convection ne into the region Friday night along
a developing frontal boundary. It appears that the best chance of
rain by 12Z Saturday while be across central Indiana into the
Whitewater and upper Miami Valleys.
The boundary tries to buckle northward on Saturday, pushing the
better chance of rain to the north and northwest of the fa.
Still held onto chance PoPs in case something pops in the warm
sector. The region will see a wide range of highs for Saturday,
with southern section making the mid 80s, while the nw counties
will be held around 70 or the upper 60s due to the clouds and
As a deep H5 low kicks out of the Rockies on Sunday, the warm
sector will expand northward. An isolated shower will be
possible and highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Models have adjusted the timing of a strong cold front passage.
The 12Z run now have the front around the Ohio/Indiana border
around 12Z Monday. Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms
late Sunday night and Monday morning with fropa. It looks like
highs will be early in the day with falling temperature during
Temperatures will be much colder behind this front for the
middle of next week. Highs will be down into the 60s. Models are
now suggesting that precipitation might try and develop along
the Ohio River for the middle of the week.
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Few cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating. Thereafter
only a bit of high cloud until after 09Z. Winds will be a bigger
issue through this time frame. South winds will gust up to 25 kt
with only some lulls after 00Z. A low level jet will develop
tonight which will lead to low level wind shear due to changes
in wind speed with height. Wind shear will diminish towards 12Z.
An area of scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will
track across the region between 10Z and 17Z. That far out in
time, only had enough confidence to include VCSH in the TAFs.
Expect MVFR ceilings to move in behind the precipitation. Winds
will veer late in the TAF period as a cold front crosses the
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of
thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Monday. Wind gusts
to 30 kt possible Sunday through Monday.