Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 290612 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 112 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain will come to and end early this morning. Drier air will visit briefly Tuesday behind the showers. Another band of showers is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday when the low is forecast to redevelop over the eastern Great Lakes. Drier conditions will return Thursday with weak high pressure.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Vigorous mid level s/wv and associated deep moisture plume/80 knot LLJ have been responsible for the widespread rain across the region this evening. The s/wv and LLJ will quickly race to the northeast overnight, bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east between midnight and 4 am EST. It will remain breezy through the early morning hours with wind gusts in the 30 mph to 40 mph range, with these higher gusts primarily focused over the western/northern zones. Sustained winds and gusts will rapidly diminish overnight as well. Temperatures will fluctuate overnight, but will eventually bottom out in the upper 40s west to the lower 50s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The band of showers will be moving east Tuesday morning, leaving the area in a relatively dry southerly flow during the day. The low will fill in for awhile as it meanders across Minnesota. For Tuesday night, additional short wave energy and moisture arriving on a southwest flow aloft will bring showers back into the picture, continuing into Wednesday when the surface low is forecast to strengthen again over the eastern Great Lakes. Main concentration of showers should be over southeast counties, where another inch of rain could fall. Temperatures will rise well above normal Tuesday, with highs ranging from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Slightly cooler highs in the mid 50s to low 60s are expected for Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure over southwest Ontario will keep a cool cyclonic flow across the region for the beginning of the period. Should be quite a bit of cloud cover, but chance of measurable precipitation looks quite low. High pressure will build in Saturday. 12Z GFS and ECMWF continue to show stark differences in solutions heading into early next week. The GFS is still cutting off a low in the Baja area which allows for weak fast-moving northern stream energy to predominate. Meanwhile the ECMWF remains progressive out west and then closes off a low as it heads into the Ohio Valley. At this point opted to maintain forecast continuity which goes along with the WPC forecast and side closer to the GFS solution. Thus forecast has a chance of light precipitation on Sunday as a quick- moving short wave passes through the area. Depending on timing, there could be some snow with this before changing over to rain. Monday should be dry with high pressure reasserting itself. Highs will be at or slightly below normal while lows will be at or slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain is coming to an end across the tafs as the period begins, with only CMH/LCK still with pcpn occurring. All tafs should be dry by 08Z. Strongest of the winds should exit the tafs with the end of the rain. As the rain comes to an end, the deep moisture pulls east. On the heals was a dry slot, but that has now filled with mvfr cigs in the 15-25kft range. These clouds will work into the tafs over the next few hours. MVFR cigs will linger to 15-16Z before they mix out. Another round of rain will work north into the tafs tonight, reaching CVG around 06Z. Cigs and vsbys will eventually drop to mvfr conditions by 12Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...Sites

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.