Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 230542
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
142 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016
High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region
through Tuesday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return
to the region Wednesday afternoon as an upper level disturbance
approaches the area. A cold front will then move across the area
Friday night. High pressure and dry conditions will then build back
in for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Little change to previous forecast which is on target. Surface
high pressure centered over Ohio to build slowly east to a
position along the east coast Tuesday. Diurnally driven cumulus
clouds have dissipated with loss of heating. Expect skies to
remain mostly clear overnight. In relatively dry airmass
temperatures to drop to lows in the mid and upper 50s.
Surface high pressure was located over the Ohio valley this
afternoon keeping conditions pleasant with only some cumulus
across the region. Tonight, surface high pressure will pull east
as the trough axis over New England ejects northeast as well. This
will allow lows to again be in the mid 50s with winds mostly
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday afternoon surface high pressure will pull east of the area
as an upper level low over southwestern Canada pulls east. As this
happens low level flow will turn from the southwest bringing much
warmer 850 mb temperatures into the tri-state. The GFS and NAM has
850 mb temperatures approaching 15 degrees C Tuesday afternoon which
supports a warming trend with high temperatures in the lower to mid
Wednesday morning the upper level low will be located over
south/central Canada with a shortwave ejecting northeast over
northern Michigan. Even though the shortwave will head north of the
area it will help to erode low PWATs currently across the area with
PWATs rising to around 1.80" (via GFS and NAM). This increased
moisture and surface dewpoints help to destabilize both NAM and GFS
soundings. ML CAPE values on the GFS are around 1000 J/kg while the
NAM has slightly higher values. Due to rising moisture and
instability values have increased PoPs Wednesday afternoon. Thursday
morning the mid-level ridge will bulge over the southeastern United
States while the upper level low heads east. The building ridge will
help to keep the highest PoPs north of the area as the low
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will drop down into the Ohio Valley Thursday into
Thursday night but weaken as it approaches the mid level ridge
centered over the Gulf Coast States. Will therefore keep pops in the
chance category for Thursday and range the highest pops from north
to south. Ahead of the front, highs on Thursday will range from the
mid 80s north to the upper 80s in the south. Given the time of year,
expect to see a diurnal enhancement in the pcpn so will taper back to
just a slight chance for Thursday night.
The front will push south of our area through the day on Friday and
continue to weaken, so will just linger a slight chance of
thunderstorms across mainly our far southern areas into the day on
Friday. Highs on Friday will be a little cooler, generally in the low
to mid 80s. Mid level ridging will then build slowly north toward
the Ohio valley through the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry
conditions and a gradual warmup through Sunday with highs mainly
in the mid to upper 80s.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The center of high pressure will move to the mid Atlantic seaboard
today. Surface ridging, however, will continue to extend westward
into the Ohio Valley.
Local shallow ground fog and/or river fog should dissipate
between 12Z and 13Z this morning. A mix of diurnal FEW-SCT cumulus
with cirrus can be expected by 16Z. Winds will be from the
south/southeast between 5 and 7 knots.
For tonight, the center of surface high pressure will remain near
or off the Atlantic seaboard. Meanwhile, a disturbance will rotate
northeast toward the western Great Lakes. Moist, return flow
between the high and this disturbance to the west will bring an
increase in moisture in the form of clouds. An isolated sprinkle
or light shower may encroach the western terminals by 12Z.
OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday into
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