Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 262303
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
703 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
High pressure over the southeast United States will result in
continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through
the holiday weekend. This will lead to seasonably warm
temperatures and the chance for a few showers or thunderstorms at
times into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms in southeastern CWA have devolved into some showers
and are showing a continued weakening trend as they exit to the
southeast this evening. Have removed thunder overnight and also
took out that slight chance in the western third of CWA that was
in earlier forecast for the predawn hours.
Models are not suggesting rainfall overnight but the threat could
re-insert itself at just about any time. Will need to monitor low
level flow for anything that may sprout upstream and closely look
at cloud cover overnight for potential clearing and lower
Overnight lows will bottom out in the mid 60s for most locations.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern remains as previously stated and there were not any
significant areas to touch on to make any noteworthy changes.
Southerly flow will continue and mid-atmospheric impulses will
combine with the heating of the day to have an increased threat
for storms in the afternoon. Cannot rule out that these
disturbances continue a storm into the evening or overnight hours.
Models are not able to determine the state of the atmosphere in a
mesoscale fashion at this time tomorrow (at least with enough run
to run/model to model consistency to me). This leads to a
necessary fuzziness to the forecast with generic slight chance to
chance of storms through the period, maximized with the peak
daytime heating and diminishing overnight.
Temperatures will also be similar through the weekend with highs
topping out in the mid 80s and overnight lows bottoming out in the
mid 60s. A few spots may top out in the upper 80s tomorrow given
enough sunny breaks. A little more cloud cover on Saturday should
inhibit runaway temperatures on this day.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period begins with a H5 S/W lifting out of the upper
MS valley into the wrn Great Lakes. At the sfc, the region remains
under the same moist, unstable summer like atmosphere, so expect
diurnal convection to pop up again on Sunday.
Late Sunday night into Monday as weak front or sfc boundary works
into the region, which will slowly suppress the chance of convection
south of the region. By Monday evening...sfc ridging has built down
thru the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...bringing stable air at
the sfc and aloft. This should bring dry conditions to the region
By Wednesday, the remains of the weak tropical system that moved
thru the se U.S. may bring added moisture to the region along with
the return of scattered thunderstorms. For Thursday, the models are
currently in agreement in pushing a front through the region. This
should bring a more organized chance of thunderstorms.
Highs Sunday and Monday will remain in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday
will only be a tad cooler before Wednesday sees highs back to the
lower to mid 80s. Lows should remain in the lower to mid 60s.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Dry conditions are expected in the near term for all of the TAF
sites, as earlier rain and convection has weakened and moved south
of the area. This has left behind some scattered low VFR clouds
(3000-4000 feet AGL) in addition to a large expanse of high
clouds. These conditions are not expected to change much
overnight, with southerly winds of around 10 knots for the next
few hours, then reducing slightly overnight. A very slight chance
of a shower will exist at any time during the forecast period, but
with probabilities that do not support inclusion in the TAFs.
However, some MVFR visibilities may be possible during the early
morning hours, especially for KCVG/KLUK and KILN. IFR is in the
forecast for KLUK, with the potential for brief periods of dense
fog before sunrise.
On Friday, overall conditions will not change much, with SSW winds
peaking out at about 10-15 knots during the afternoon. There will
again be a slight chance for showers and storms to develop, but
any specific forecast of this will have to wait until closer to
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will remain possible from the end of the
TAF period through Sunday.
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