Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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514 FXUS61 KILN 190911 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 411 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region today before sliding east of the Ohio Valley on Monday. Morning clouds and some fog will give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. Much above normal temperatures will continue through at least the first part of the week. A weak cold front will provide a chance of rain Tuesday, but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected midweek before rain chances return for the end of the workweek with the approach of a storm system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level deformation and associated rain showers have moved southeast of ILN/s FA. A weak e-w oriented front over northern Ohio to settle into central Ohio and stall out an lose its identity. The low level flow will veer westerly with lower levels saturating. Latest satl imagery shows low level clouds developing acrs portion of southern and central Indiana. These low clouds will develop across ILN/s FA early. Drier air from the north will provide increasing sunshine from the northwest to southeast during the late morning and afternoon hours. Clouds will likely keep temperatures a little below yesterdays readings. Warm temperatures to continue with highs generally in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sharp full latitude mid level ridge to build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday. Surface ridge axis will slide just east of the region by Monday morning. Expect dry conditions tonight with only high level clouds spilling over the mid level ridge. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight due to light wind flow. Lows to range from the upper 30s far northeast to the lower 40s southwest. With mid level ridge build and amplifying over the region Monday expect continued dry weather with a warming trend. High level clouds will continue to cover the area. High temperatures will approach record values Monday, ranging from the lower 60s far northeast to the upper 60s southwest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Area will be under a warm and dry southerly flow Monday night to early Tuesday. A weak cold front will bring a good chance of showers Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night. High pressure and dry weather will follow for Wednesday. A vigorous low pressure system moving to the western Great Lakes will impact the area starting on Thursday and continuing through Friday. First, a warm front developing ahead of the low will be the focus for showers on Thursday. For Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be likely with passage of a cold front extending south from the low center. Saturday should be dry with high pressure moving to the lower Ohio Valley. Warm advection and sunshine, and the presence of an upper ridge across the eastern CONUS, will allow much above normal temperatures to persist for most of the period. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s Tuesday through Friday. A reduction to near normal 40s appears to be in store for Saturday in a northwest flow behind the vigorous low. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Light rain showers associated with mid level deformation is exiting ILN/s southeast counties. These showers will remain to the southeast of the TAF sites as they push off to the east. The low level flow will veer northwest early this morning as a weak front sags down from the north. Numerical models are showing a saturation of the lower levels below about 1000 feet toward sunrise. Latest 11u-3.9u satl imagery shows low level clouds developing acrs portion of southern IL, southern IN, into western OH. Expect main impact from status due to mixy nature of boundary layer. Will allow for some IFR VSBY and CIG restrictions toward sunrise and into the morning hours. Expect drier air from the north to provide improving conditions during the late morning and afternoon hours. Some fog may be possible again late tonight into early Monday. At this time have limited any restriction to MVFR category. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday and Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939) Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR CLIMATE...

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