Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 190911
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
411 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
High pressure will build into the region today before sliding
east of the Ohio Valley on Monday. Morning clouds and some fog
will give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. Much above normal
temperatures will continue through at least the first part of the
week. A weak cold front will provide a chance of rain Tuesday,
but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the
upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected midweek before
rain chances return for the end of the workweek with the approach
of a storm system.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level deformation and associated rain showers have moved
southeast of ILN/s FA. A weak e-w oriented front over northern
Ohio to settle into central Ohio and stall out an lose its
identity. The low level flow will veer westerly with
lower levels saturating. Latest satl imagery shows low level
clouds developing acrs portion of southern and central Indiana.
These low clouds will develop across ILN/s FA early.
Drier air from the north will provide increasing sunshine from
the northwest to southeast during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Clouds will likely keep temperatures a little
below yesterdays readings. Warm temperatures to continue with
highs generally in the lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sharp full latitude mid level ridge to build into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday. Surface ridge axis will slide just
east of the region by Monday morning. Expect dry conditions
tonight with only high level clouds spilling over the mid level
ridge. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight due to light
wind flow. Lows to range from the upper 30s far northeast to the
lower 40s southwest.
With mid level ridge build and amplifying over the region Monday
expect continued dry weather with a warming trend. High level
clouds will continue to cover the area. High temperatures will
approach record values Monday, ranging from the lower 60s far
northeast to the upper 60s southwest.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Area will be under a warm and dry southerly flow Monday night to
early Tuesday. A weak cold front will bring a good chance of showers
Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night. High pressure and dry weather
will follow for Wednesday. A vigorous low pressure system moving to
the western Great Lakes will impact the area starting on Thursday
and continuing through Friday. First, a warm front developing ahead
of the low will be the focus for showers on Thursday. For Friday,
showers and thunderstorms will be likely with passage of a cold
front extending south from the low center. Saturday should be dry
with high pressure moving to the lower Ohio Valley.
Warm advection and sunshine, and the presence of an upper ridge
across the eastern CONUS, will allow much above normal temperatures
to persist for most of the period. Highs are forecast to be in the
60s Tuesday through Friday. A reduction to near normal 40s appears
to be in store for Saturday in a northwest flow behind the vigorous
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light rain showers associated with mid level deformation is
exiting ILN/s southeast counties. These showers will remain to
the southeast of the TAF sites as they push off to the east.
The low level flow will veer northwest early this morning as a
weak front sags down from the north. Numerical models are
showing a saturation of the lower levels below about 1000 feet
toward sunrise. Latest 11u-3.9u satl imagery shows low level
clouds developing acrs portion of southern IL, southern IN, into
western OH. Expect main impact from status due to mixy nature of
boundary layer. Will allow for some IFR VSBY and CIG restrictions
toward sunrise and into the morning hours.
Expect drier air from the north to provide improving conditions
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Some fog may be
possible again late tonight into early Monday. At this time have
limited any restriction to MVFR category.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday and Thursday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939)
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930)