Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290615 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 215 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/ ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR SHORTWAVES. ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST. AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS). WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO THE AVAILABLE FORCING. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SKIES HAVE CLEARED TONIGHT AND FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. EXPECT KLUK AND KILN TO DROP TO LIFR WITH MVFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR AFT 12Z. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF A CDFNT. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAFS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY IN THE AFTN OVER THE WRN TAFS. ADDED A TEMPO PERIOD OF TSRA BETWEEN 19-21Z AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY. HAVE ONLY A VCTS MENTION IN AT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE AS ORGANIZED. FNT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY 00Z. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...FRANKS/BPP LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

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