Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181521 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST. W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL/AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HAYDU

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