Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280525 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 125 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND PULL NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DEEP SFC LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NE. LATEST IR SATL IMGRY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. EXPECT WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT ILN/S NE COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY MORNING...SLOWLY ENDING FROM SW TO NE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING UP TO ABOUT ILN BY MORNING AS THE SFC LOW PULLS AWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE. THAT HAS ALLOWED THE AREA TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SOME OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE BRINGING WRAP AROUND RAIN INTO CENTRAL OHIO. PWATS AROUND THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY NEAR AN INCH WITH DRIER AIR INTRUDING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WITH THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOME LIGHT RAIN/ DRIZZLE IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL ALSO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY OF PLEASANT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND CLEARING SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MID- MORNING SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES C TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIP SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA AND OVER OUR AREA MONDAY. PWATS MONDAY ALSO RISE TO AROUND 1.60". THANKS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH KEEPING THE AREA IN THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THANKS TO THE RAIN AND LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STALLED BOUNDARY AROUND THE MICHIGAN/ OHIO BORDER WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERAL THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM IS FOR THE OMEGA RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TO SLOWLY START TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE TROUGH LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE WITH A SLIGHTLY DECAYING AMPLITUDE. THIS GENERALLY SPELLS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS... EURO... AND CMC OCCUR THOUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH WHICH CHANGES THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING FRONTAL POSITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY THE OMEGA HIGH OUT WEST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN GENERAL THE EURO FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT WEST QUICKER THAN THE GFS WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO QUICKLY ROTATE NORTHEAST. THANKS TO THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTHWARDS PUSH A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE EURO WASHES THE FRONT OUT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EITHER SOLUTION FAVORS RAIN BUT THE GFS PUSHES LOW PWAT AIR JUST INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE EURO KEEPS THE DRY AIR FARTHER NORTH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD PUSH RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. THE EURO KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA WET. FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED THE EURO SOLUTION. NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO START TO BREAK DOWN WITH WEAK RIDGING/ FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS CONUS. A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCE POPS IS OF PREFERENCE IN THIS REGIME. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CINCINNATI IS ALREADY MOSTLY CLEAR...WHILE DAYTON APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. FOR THE COLUMBUS AIRPORTS...MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO STILL OCCUR AT COLUMBUS BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH WNW WINDS REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT DIMINISHING AND BACKING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...HATZOS

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