Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230542 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 142 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region through Tuesday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return to the region Wednesday afternoon as an upper level disturbance approaches the area. A cold front will then move across the area Friday night. High pressure and dry conditions will then build back in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Little change to previous forecast which is on target. Surface high pressure centered over Ohio to build slowly east to a position along the east coast Tuesday. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds have dissipated with loss of heating. Expect skies to remain mostly clear overnight. In relatively dry airmass temperatures to drop to lows in the mid and upper 50s. Previous Discussion... Surface high pressure was located over the Ohio valley this afternoon keeping conditions pleasant with only some cumulus across the region. Tonight, surface high pressure will pull east as the trough axis over New England ejects northeast as well. This will allow lows to again be in the mid 50s with winds mostly light. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday afternoon surface high pressure will pull east of the area as an upper level low over southwestern Canada pulls east. As this happens low level flow will turn from the southwest bringing much warmer 850 mb temperatures into the tri-state. The GFS and NAM has 850 mb temperatures approaching 15 degrees C Tuesday afternoon which supports a warming trend with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Wednesday morning the upper level low will be located over south/central Canada with a shortwave ejecting northeast over northern Michigan. Even though the shortwave will head north of the area it will help to erode low PWATs currently across the area with PWATs rising to around 1.80" (via GFS and NAM). This increased moisture and surface dewpoints help to destabilize both NAM and GFS soundings. ML CAPE values on the GFS are around 1000 J/kg while the NAM has slightly higher values. Due to rising moisture and instability values have increased PoPs Wednesday afternoon. Thursday morning the mid-level ridge will bulge over the southeastern United States while the upper level low heads east. The building ridge will help to keep the highest PoPs north of the area as the low approaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will drop down into the Ohio Valley Thursday into Thursday night but weaken as it approaches the mid level ridge centered over the Gulf Coast States. Will therefore keep pops in the chance category for Thursday and range the highest pops from north to south. Ahead of the front, highs on Thursday will range from the mid 80s north to the upper 80s in the south. Given the time of year, expect to see a diurnal enhancement in the pcpn so will taper back to just a slight chance for Thursday night. The front will push south of our area through the day on Friday and continue to weaken, so will just linger a slight chance of thunderstorms across mainly our far southern areas into the day on Friday. Highs on Friday will be a little cooler, generally in the low to mid 80s. Mid level ridging will then build slowly north toward the Ohio valley through the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry conditions and a gradual warmup through Sunday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The center of high pressure will move to the mid Atlantic seaboard today. Surface ridging, however, will continue to extend westward into the Ohio Valley. Local shallow ground fog and/or river fog should dissipate between 12Z and 13Z this morning. A mix of diurnal FEW-SCT cumulus with cirrus can be expected by 16Z. Winds will be from the south/southeast between 5 and 7 knots. For tonight, the center of surface high pressure will remain near or off the Atlantic seaboard. Meanwhile, a disturbance will rotate northeast toward the western Great Lakes. Moist, return flow between the high and this disturbance to the west will bring an increase in moisture in the form of clouds. An isolated sprinkle or light shower may encroach the western terminals by 12Z. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday into Thursday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hickman

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