Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230921 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 521 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and humid airmass will continue across the region today with additional thunderstorms expected. Thunderstorm chances will continue for Monday before cooler and drier conditions work into the region for Monday night. High pressure and dry conditions will then be in place through Wednesday before another system brings a return of precipitation to the area for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move near and south of the Ohio River early this morning. Significant rainfall has already occurred across this area with additional rainfall expected. Due to this will continue the flash flood watch across this region. Later this morning expect dry conditions to briefly return to the region. Yet another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into the forecast area later today. The main threat with the storms later today will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. Will continue the severe mention in the HWO for today. The other threat for today in addition to the storms will be the heat. Although heat index values are expected to be lower than the past two days, heat index values are still expected to be high. This is especially true across southwestern portions of the forecast area including portions of northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and extreme southwest Ohio. Dewpoints have been overachieving and with the rain that has moved across the region during the overnight hours today expect them to do the same today. Due to this even if temperatures do not reach current forecast values due to cloud cover and additional precipitation, there will be the potential for heat index values to reach 100. Will continue to monitor convective trends and the potential need for a heat advisory today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Thunderstorm activity will be ongoing at the start of the short term this evening. Most of this activity will move out of the region during the evening to first part of the overnight hours leaving only isolated precipitation expected for most of the overnight hours. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected for Monday as a cold front moves through the region. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... After the front moves through on Monday expect drier and cooler conditions across the forecast area for Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will increase for Wednesday, however dry conditions will continue. Another system is expected to approach the region Wednesday night and move through the region Thursday into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with this system. After this system moves through, cooler and drier conditions will again return to the region for the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Thunderstorm activity will move across KCVG, KLUK, and KILN during the overnight hours. Activity will taper off towards morning and dry conditions will then be expected for the morning hours across the TAF sites. There could be some MVFR fog that develops around sunrise with recent rainfall across the region. In addition some MVFR cigs will be possible as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then develop for the afternoon hours and into the evening hours. Vsbys and cigs could be reduced with this activity. After this activity begins to move out Sunday night fog will be possible. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ077>079- 081-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Novak

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