Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 201038
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016
High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through the rest of
the work week, allowing dry weather to continue. Temperatures will
remain above normal through Friday with highs in the mid to upper
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cirrus debris from an earlier thunderstorm complex over Missouri
continues to spill into ILN`s forecast area early this morning.
This cloud deck is expected to gradually thin and diminish as it
spreads southeast within a mid-level ridge axis. Meanwhile a
weakening cold front drifting south across lower Michigan will
stall out over northern Indiana and Ohio today, with an associated
band of mid level clouds. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies
overall today thanks to low/mid level subsidence from high
pressure at the surface and aloft.
With rising 500mb heights and a ridge axis laid out over the ILN
CWA, high temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than
yesterday. Forecast calls for highs in the mid to upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With weak flow at the surface and aloft, high pressure will
slowly drift into the Northeast, still extending into the Ohio
Valley through the end of the work week. With PWATs remaining at
or below 1", this will allow for continued dry conditions across
the region and very little in the way of cloud cover.
GEFS and SREF ensemble plumes indicate a slight bump in
temperatures each day through Thursday with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than normal for this
time of year.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid/upr level ridge over the south central US with a band of
westerlies through the Great Lakes to start the long term.
Precipitation will be confined to the region close to a weak
surface front which lays out parallel to the upper level flow
across the Great Lakes. Dry conditions will prevail with high
temperatures in the mid and upper 80s on Friday.
A back door type surface front will drop south through the Ohio
valley Saturday. Moisture and forcing is limited with this
weakening front. Have limited mention of precipitation to slight
chance pops across the northern counties on Saturday. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler with highs in the lower and middle 80s.
Model solutions differ on timing but agree that upper level ridge
builds east into the region and continue to be slower with next
frontal system. Expect dry conditions with temperatures remaining
above normal Sunday. Expect highs from 80 to 85.
Upper level trof to track east and flatten out as it moves through
the Great Lakes next Monday. Associated surface front to push
through late Monday/Tuesday. Will spread chance pops in Monday ahead
of this front. Temperatures will be a little cooler with highs from
the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast.
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Ci blowoff from convection over the MS valley is slowly thinning
and will affect the wrn tafs for the beginning of taf period.
High pressure will hold steady over the region today into tonight,
causing a cdfnt to hang up and lay out across the Great Lakes.
Only a few AC clouds will drop down into the tafs from the front.
Skies should be clear again tonight. Weak ely sfc flow should be
a good setup for IFR fog at LUK.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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