Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220137 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 937 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... NOT MANY CHANGES FOR CURRENT UPDATE THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING ITS SLOW BUT SURE PROGRESS THROUGH MICHIGAN PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON THE RADAR WITH IT. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.7" FRIDAY AND WITH ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO THINK THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW. LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE LIGHT RETURNS IN MICHIGAN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND GIVEN MENTIONED ABOVE THIS IS NOT SURPRISING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DID TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY STARTED TO FALL THIS EVENING AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE SUN HAS GONE DOWN. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT BUT LATEST KILN SOUNDING NOT TO IMPRESSIVE FOR FOG. HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. PREV DISCUSSION -> SHORT WAVE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. APPEARS THAT THIS IS GENERALLY SPRINKLES. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. FORECAST LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF MOS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN OHIO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST TIME FRAME AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. GENERALLY WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS BOTH NIGHTS. STAYED NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS EXCEPT IN CENTRAL OHIO WHERE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE COOLER NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S EACH DAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIGHT RAIN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED EAST THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL START TO APPROACH THE DEWPOINT BY FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN A AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. USUALLY AHEAD OF A FRONT AND AFTER RAIN FOG IS A CONCERN. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE RAIN THAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY MORNING WAS VERY LIGHT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG/ REDUCED VISIBILITIES OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY A DRY PASSAGE EXPECTED. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE FRONT BUT GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES CHANCE IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS OBSERVED CURRENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE UP IN WISCONSIN/ AND THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HAINES

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