Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230123 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 923 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HUMID AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SPARK A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT AND PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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DIURNAL CU HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO OUR NORTHWEST FA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHILE THE ARW AND NMM WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY...BUT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITIES...DO EXPECT A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MAKE IT INTO OUR FA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT IS BEING PROGGED WITH A CONTINUOUSLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH EACH MODEL RUN. IN THE NW CWA AT 12Z IT IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. PRECIP IN THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND THE SWODY2 OUTLOOK APPEARS TO WHITTLE AWAY AT THE SEVERE PROSPECTS WITH EACH DISCUSSION. AT THIS MOMENT...I WOULD EXPECT A RAINY PERIOD WITH THUNDER BUT THE LACK OF DISTINCT STRONG CORES/UPDRAFTS NECESSARY FOR WIND/HAIL. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE FOR OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS AND WINDS WHEN THESE ELEVATED CORES COLLAPSE...BUT THE EXPECTED HIGH MOISTURE AND COLD NATURE OF THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIMIT ANY VERY STRONG WINDS FROM OCCURRING. HIGHS WERE PROGGED TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN I WOULD EXPECT IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH A GRUNGY DAY OF CLOUD COVER. LOWERED READINGS A BIT TO TOP OUT AT 90 DEGREES AS A MAXIMUM AND THINK THAT THIS WOULD BE AN EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH WITH STRONG ADVECTION FROM A SUNNY POCKET OVER KY BEING PULLED INTO MY NRN KY AND SERN OH COUNTIES. NW CWA WILL BE THOROUGHLY GRUNGED AND NOT REACH PAST THE 70S. AFTER PRECIP ENDS TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION AND WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE ACCELERATED THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE...YET STILL VARY BY SEVERAL HOURS ON THEIR FORECAST ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POPS RAMPING UP INTO THE DAY SATURDAY BASED ON THE FASTER TREND. KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...A REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID WEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE CMC AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT. AM FORECASTING MAINLY LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS BEING THAT HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING..LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE HI RES CONVECTIVE MODELS SUGGESTING SOME OF IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT WORKS INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATING TREND IF IT DOES MAKE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO OUR AREA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN GENERALLY COVER THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH JUST A VCTS. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT AS WE DESTABILIZE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST HAVE A P6SM -SHRA AND VCTS INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR THE TAF SITES ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...LATTO AVIATION...JGL

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