Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201917 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 317 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and its associated cold front will track southeast across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today into tonight. The front will continue to move south of the area on Tuesday as cooler air begins to filter into the region from the north. An embedded upper level disturbance may bring the threat of showers to parts of the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure and much colder air will then arrive by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A decaying MCS is still tracking through SE IN and S OH as it passes through the area. A few embedded thunderstorms still remain but are still weakening. Have updated the forecast to adjust the pops for this system passing through. Still expecting redevelopment later this evening into tonight as the NAM and other near term models have hinted at this. As well, adjusted QPF values for this updated as this area of showers and storms has lasted a bit longer than anticipated. A new ZFP has been sent out with this update. && .SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be making their way southeast this evening. Main coverage is still poised for our east/northeast where better low level forcing will be located. There maybe a trailing tail of likely PoPs extending into at least the Cincinnati metro area out ahead of the front. Precipitation will wane from northwest to southeast overnight as the cold front slips southeast through the region. Lows will range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south. On Tuesday, the front will continue to push south from the region. Considerable cloudiness will remain due to low clouds in the morning, and then mid level cloudiness spilling into the region from an approaching embedded s/wv in the northwest flow aloft. This feature may bring a few showers to southern locations late in the day. Highs will range from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft will generally provide dry weather to end the work week with temperatures jumping from around 40 on Wednesday into the 60s by Friday. A warm front lifting through the region Thursday night and Friday morning may generate a few showers, especially over our northern counties. A vertically stacked low pressure system will then ride northeastward up the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. Models are fairly consistent now indicating that the ILN forecast area remains in the warm sector through much of the day Saturday before a cold front passes Saturday night. Painted a picture of increasing PoPs from west to east beginning late Friday night and peaking Saturday evening, with a few thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Lesser rain chances will linger Sunday and even into Monday as the parent upper low fills and meanders northeastward slowly across the region. Temperatures only cool slightly behind our weekend system with forecast highs dropping from the 60s to near 70 on Saturday down into the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has moved out of the forecast area. This also has left some IFR and below cigs hanging around some of the terminals. Will expect some VFR conditions moving in this afternoon for a couple hours as cigs lift and visibilities increase. By 22z at most terminals, the development of the next complex of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area. This will slowly bring down cigs and visibility after 00z and will likely keep below IFR cigs and IFR visibility in mist hanging around through the morning hours. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities expected Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibility`s possible Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...DJS LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...DJS

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