Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 201917
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY
317 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017
Low pressure and its associated cold front will track southeast
across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today into
tonight. The front will continue to move south of the area on
Tuesday as cooler air begins to filter into the region from the
north. An embedded upper level disturbance may bring the threat
of showers to parts of the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
High pressure and much colder air will then arrive by
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A decaying MCS is still tracking through SE IN and S OH as it
passes through the area. A few embedded thunderstorms still
remain but are still weakening. Have updated the forecast to
adjust the pops for this system passing through. Still expecting
redevelopment later this evening into tonight as the NAM and
other near term models have hinted at this. As well, adjusted
QPF values for this updated as this area of showers and storms
has lasted a bit longer than anticipated. A new ZFP has been
sent out with this update.
.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be making their way
southeast this evening. Main coverage is still poised for our
east/northeast where better low level forcing will be located.
There maybe a trailing tail of likely PoPs extending into at
least the Cincinnati metro area out ahead of the front. Precipitation
will wane from northwest to southeast overnight as the cold
front slips southeast through the region. Lows will range from
the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south.
On Tuesday, the front will continue to push south from the
region. Considerable cloudiness will remain due to low clouds in
the morning, and then mid level cloudiness spilling into the
region from an approaching embedded s/wv in the northwest flow
aloft. This feature may bring a few showers to southern
locations late in the day. Highs will range from the lower 50s
north to the upper 50s south.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will generally provide
dry weather to end the work week with temperatures jumping from
around 40 on Wednesday into the 60s by Friday. A warm front
lifting through the region Thursday night and Friday morning may
generate a few showers, especially over our northern counties.
A vertically stacked low pressure system will then ride
northeastward up the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. Models
are fairly consistent now indicating that the ILN forecast area
remains in the warm sector through much of the day Saturday
before a cold front passes Saturday night. Painted a picture of
increasing PoPs from west to east beginning late Friday night
and peaking Saturday evening, with a few thunderstorms possible
Saturday afternoon and evening. Lesser rain chances will linger
Sunday and even into Monday as the parent upper low fills and
meanders northeastward slowly across the region. Temperatures
only cool slightly behind our weekend system with forecast highs
dropping from the 60s to near 70 on Saturday down into the
upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has moved out of
the forecast area. This also has left some IFR and below cigs
hanging around some of the terminals. Will expect some VFR
conditions moving in this afternoon for a couple hours as cigs
lift and visibilities increase. By 22z at most terminals, the
development of the next complex of showers and thunderstorms
will move through the area. This will slowly bring down cigs and
visibility after 00z and will likely keep below IFR cigs and
IFR visibility in mist hanging around through the morning
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities expected Tuesday
morning. MVFR ceilings and visibility`s possible Thursday and Friday.