Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280020 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 820 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATED EARLY TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA THIS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID AND THINKING THAT SVR THREAT OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA IS NOT EXISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RAPID LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ENERGY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS THROUGH CWA WILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT WITH THE FRONT AND IT JUST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME SHEAR IN ITS FAVOR. ACTIVE CELLS ALONG IT HAVE PUSHED OUT A BLANKETING CLOUD DECK THAT WILL INHIBIT THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR THEM TO PRODUCE A TORNADIC SUPERCELL. SOME ISOLD SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-70 CORRIDOR. PREV DISC FOLLOWS-> ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CWA WILL NOT PERMIT ANY RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DE-STABILIZE DURING THE REMAINING BULK OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDING SSW THROUGH INDIANA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OHIO IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...THINK THAT THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMIZED OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE LINE OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. TIMING PROG HAS THE LINE IN WESTERN CWA AT ABOUT 5:30-6 PM AND I JUST CAN`T SEE THE INSTABILITY HOLDING TOUGH OVER SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 6 THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...THOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG THE LINE TO PERSIST AND CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE VALID WATCH TIME OF 9PM. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER THE UPPER LOW CROSSES NEAR THE 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS IT COMBINES TO PUSH NW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH ON TUES OR WED. CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF LIFTS E. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS EVENING. AFTER THESE MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES BY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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