-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 152354
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
754 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE VERY NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BY AND LARGE DISSIPATED. BUT
MANY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AFTER 00Z. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT ON HOW THIS MAY EVOLVE. IT
DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH. SO HAVE KEPT A STRIPE OF LIKELY POPS
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AND HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EAST-WEST FRONT WILL START THE PERIOD STRETCHED ACROSS THE MIDST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ZONE OF
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL FORCING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING. JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR WARMER READINGS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL GFS
MOS LOOKED REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TOO COOL OFF A
BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT. USE A MOS BLEND FOR THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.  THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME.  WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE  SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.  A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION.  THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  DUE TO
MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ANY AT ALL) INTO THE TAF SITES. AMENDMENTS WILL
BE LIKELY. A FRONT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
INDIANA. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIED
OFF...WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT AS OF THIS WRITING. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION POINTS BOTH NEAR THE FRONT AND A
CONVERGENT AXIS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING...AS A
SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD. KDAY APPEARS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS. ATTEMPTED TO TIME A VCTS
GROUP INTO ALL THE TAFS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY WANING TOWARD DAWN.

AFTER A LULL DURING THE MORNING...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST
OF COLUMBUS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A VCSH AT KCMH/KLCK VERSUS A VCTS
AT OTHER TAF SITES. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE VARIABLE WITH THE FRONT
IN THE VICINITY...BUT WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SNYDER