-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 062125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM A SE U.S. WEATHER SYSTEM. USED A BIAS
CORRECTED MODEL/MOS BLENDED APPROACH FOR TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S EXCEPT THE FAR NW WHERE A FEW TEENS
MAY OCCUR WITH A LINGERING SNOW COVER.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A
CLOSED MID LVL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. A MODIFYING AIRMASS AND WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR NW TO
THE MID 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS
MID LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE NW. HAVE BROUGHT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING IN OUR NW
ZONES...BUT SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT PCPN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
SATURDAY DAYLIGHT HOURS. IF PCPN SNEAKS IN IT WILL BE A LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON HOW MUCH UPR LVL SUPPORT AND/OR FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR
AREA. SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST LIKELY POPS (CMC...NAM) WHILE
OTHERS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT IN THE CHC CATEGORY. SINCE THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF FORECAST PCPN
COVERAGE...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS OUT OF THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. PCPN SEEMS TO BE MAINLY POST FRONTAL AND SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD SNEAK IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. AM EXPECTING HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S NW TO THE LOWER
30S SE.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY-WNW FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE ALTERNATING BRIEF
PERIODS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE...WITH THE LOW TRACKS MAINLY
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AT THE
TAIL END OF A PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS WILL ALREADY BE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY EVENING...PROVIDING A
SCENARIO FOR WARMER CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED...AND GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY...THE FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...AND ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INFLUENCE THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH A FRONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED
TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE ILN CWA. THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING TO FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...AS THE
RELATIVELY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM IS FORCED TO INTERACT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF TEXAS. WHETHER OR NOT THESE TWO SYSTEMS
INTERACT WILL AFFECT WHAT HAPPENS...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GOING TO NEED TO INCREASE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

ONE THING THAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT A SURFACE FRONT
WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN TO COOLER CONDITION HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT SWINGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. AS IT DOES...SOME CI WILL SPILL UP INTO THE ERN
TAFS THIS AFTN. BY 00Z EXPECT THE BKN CI TO BE E OF THE TAFS JUST
LEAVING SCT CI.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW AND RISING
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR FOG TO THE TAFS TONIGHT.
WITH THE WEAK SE FLOW KLUK MIGHT SEE A PERIOD OF IFR FOG TOWARDS
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE TAFS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...SO VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FCST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES