Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 302115 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 515 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA. IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN. LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. BKN VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CIGS AT KCVG/KLUK AND POSSIBLY KILN. SKIES SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING IN A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...FRANKS

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