-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 280020
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
820 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATED EARLY TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA THIS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID AND THINKING THAT SVR
THREAT OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA IS NOT EXISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE RAPID LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ENERGY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
STORMS THROUGH CWA WILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT WITH THE FRONT AND IT
JUST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME SHEAR IN ITS FAVOR. ACTIVE CELLS ALONG
IT HAVE PUSHED OUT A BLANKETING CLOUD DECK THAT WILL INHIBIT THE
INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR THEM TO PRODUCE A TORNADIC SUPERCELL.
SOME ISOLD SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND N OF I-70 CORRIDOR. PREV DISC FOLLOWS->

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CWA WILL
NOT PERMIT ANY RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DE-STABILIZE DURING THE REMAINING BULK OF
DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH INDIANA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OHIO IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...THINK THAT THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMIZED OUTSIDE
OF THE IMMEDIATE LINE OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. TIMING PROG HAS THE
LINE IN WESTERN CWA AT ABOUT 5:30-6 PM AND I JUST CAN`T SEE THE
INSTABILITY HOLDING TOUGH OVER SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 6 THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...THOUGH IT IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG THE LINE TO PERSIST
AND CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE VALID WATCH TIME OF 9PM.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
NEAR THE 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS IT COMBINES TO PUSH NW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED THIS
EVENING. AFTER THESE MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES BY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH
INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK