Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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012 FXUS61 KILN 112052 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 352 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. IT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. SHALLOW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR. FOR TONIGHT...CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. CEILINGS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DROP OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT 12 K FT TO 8 K FT. WITH WEAK WAA/LIFT...CEILINGS WILL DROP TOWARD 5 K FT ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z. ON FRIDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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