Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251919 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 319 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid week. This will bring dry and warm weather conditions to the region. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Ern U.S. ridge continues to weaken due to the influence of Hurricane Maria drifting north and H5 s/w lifting north through the nrn plains. Models cut off current fetch of H3 moisture from Hurricane Maria around 00Z. This will leave skies mostly clear. Models are showing a slow increase in dewpoints overnight along with some fog development. Lows will drop down into lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The ridge will continue to hold across the region on Tuesday. Since the area is on the backside of the ridge, the low level moisture will be on the increase, so there should be an increase in cu for Tuesday. Highs will be around 90 again as subsidence ahead of Maria continues. Cold front will be pushing up the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, but the night should be dry. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front will move through on Wednesday. Moisture is limited with this feature therefore only have a slight chance of showers across northwestern portions of the forecast area. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm, however instability is limited therefore kept thunder mention out of the forecast. Any precipitation will taper off by Wednesday evening. The more pronounced feature with this front will be the drop off in temperatures. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 80s and highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Dry conditions will be in place for Thursday, however with cold air advection have clouds increasing during the daytime hours with cu development. Dry conditions will continue for Thursday. Reinforcing cool air will move in for Saturday due to an upper trough moving through Friday into Saturday. The coolest night is expected to be Saturday night with lows in the 40s across most areas. A few spots north of Columbus may drop into the upper 30s by early Sunday morning. Temperatures will begin to warm slightly for Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF begins to move precipitation into the area for Monday, however went with a dry forecast at this time until there is more model continuity.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some scattered diurnal cu has popped under the cirrus canopy, but it is not expected to develop into a ceiling this afternoon. It will dissipate later this afternoon towards sunset. The cirrus which is affecting the taf is originating from Hurricane Maria. The models are in good agreement that the H3 moisture will back out of the area around 00Z, leaving mostly clear skies tonight. Guidance is hinting at fog development overnight. They increase the dewpoints after 00Z and develop widespread MVFR vsbys as the dewpoint depression reaches zero. The normal fuggy spots of LUK and ILN could see some IFR fog around sunrise. Fog will lift after 12Z, then a cu deck around 4Kft is expected to develop between 15-18Z. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...Sites

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