Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271828 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 228 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week. Another low pressure system will affect the region Thursday and Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Echoes continue to weaken as they move north east across the area. So any showers remaining with that should be brief and light. Convection across western Kentucky will spread into the southern counties late this afternoon. Looks like that area will be on the northern gradient of better instability. But there could still be some strong to severe storms late today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... 1008 mb low pressure will be moving across Southern Indiana tonight to Ohio Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will continue this evening in the moist ascent ahead of the low. As instability diminishes and thunderstorms come to an end tonight, showers will linger through the overnight in a regime of persistent deep moisture surrounding the low. Showers will end from west to east on Tuesday as the low moves east and weakens, while the mid level short wave is replaced by a broad ridge. Temperatures will exhibit a bit of a cooling trend as modest cold advection occurs on a northerly low level flow behind the low. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Amplified upper level flow pattern with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes at mid week. In low level CAA pattern temperatures will be closer to normal, with highs on Wednesday ranging from the mid 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Upper level low to open up as it tracks from the southern plains into the Mid MS VLY Thursday and across the Great Lakes Friday. Latest GFS solution has adjusted now closer to ECMWF/Canadian solutions. In this amplified pattern, upper level ridge ahead of this low will keep the first part of Thursday dry. On the warm side of the system, temperatures will be above normal with highs on Thursday ranging from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south. Expect showers with a chance of thunderstorms to overspread ILN/s area Thursday afternoon/evening. In southerly flow moisture increases Thursday night into Friday. Will show a period of categorical pops and then diminish pcpn chances Friday night with the passage of a cold front. Temperatures to continue above normal Friday, ranging from 60 northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Surface high pressure to build across the region offering dry weather Saturday and Sunday. Highs close to normal Saturday from the upper 50s to the lower 60s and then warming about a category Sunday. Upper low approaching from the southwest to offer next chance for precipitation later Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Early part of the TAF period will be uneventful with some cumulus and extensive mid to high clouds. Convection in western Kentucky will spread into the region and potentially start affecting TAF sites after 22Z. In the wake of this initial activity, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop and move across the region as low pressure approaches. At this point expect VFR conditions to prevail with temporary lower visibilities in heavier precipitation. As the low moves across the area overnight, thunderstorms will diminish although showers may linger. Ceilings will fall to MVFR below 2000 ft and likely eventually drop to IFR before 12Z. Winds will become variable then shift to north. Showers will end Tuesday morning but low ceilings will persist with some slow improvement late in the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will persist into Tuesday night and likely continue into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday into Friday evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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