Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 050816 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 416 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST AND TO OUR WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING NEAR OUR NW ZONES DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN UP AND SHEAR AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND...THERE COULD STILL BE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION...THEN TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANY SHOWER/STORM THIS EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A LID ON ANY POP UP SHOWER/STORM...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO OUR NORTHWEST/WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE FA. WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 80S. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITHOUT A LOT OF CONTINUITY DECIDED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT THE TAF SITES. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA MAY APPROACH THE DAYTON AREA BY EARLY MORNING...BUT ONLY A VCSH HAS BEEN USED IN THE TAFS BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS...THOUGH NOT LIKELY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS ON FRIDAY. VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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