Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160532 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 132 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW. BY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SATELLITE SHOWS THAT ONLY A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN IN CENTRAL OHIO AND THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMA. RECORDS LOWS FOR APRIL 16 CMH 22 DEGREES IN 1962/1935 CVG 24 DEGREES IN 1875 DAY 23 DEGREES IN 1962 WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ILN CWA...IN A GENERALLY-NORTHEAST DIRECTION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FLOW PATTERN THAT ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE CHANGING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WITH SUN AND MIXING (THROUGH AROUND 850MB) EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION NEAR 900MB WILL INCREASE...CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY UNLIKELY...AND FROST POTENTIAL IS IN QUESTION...WITH DRY AIR AND SOME WIND REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME FROST WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO OR CONSIDER ISSUING A HEADLINE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA GETTING INTO THE 60S. THOUGH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN GENERAL ONLY SOME PATCHES OR STREAKS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ARE EXPECTED. LATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PICK UP IN STRENGTH...IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...JUST EXPECT TO JUST SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR INZ073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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