Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270553 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 153 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. In the warm and humid airmass on Saturday, a few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible. By Sunday into Monday, several weak upper level disturbances will provide a little better chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Thunderstorms have quickly dissipated in the last hour or so with only a few lingering showers left across our northwest. Will hang on to some low pops for the next couple of hours to account for this and then try to dry things out overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... H5 ridge centered over the central Appalachians builds a little to the north on Saturday. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, we see an increase in the instability Saturday afternoon. Because of the position of the H5 ridge, there is a lack of forcing across the fa, so limited pops to 20 to 30 percent in se IN and wrn OH. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the extreme wrn locations because of the pcpn chances so held high temperatures in the upper 80s. Farther e, highs should make the lower 90s. this will push heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100, so will adjust the wording in the HWO. Saturday`s convection could bleed over in the early evening hours before it dissipates. For Sunday, we get a little more upper support as some vortices rotate around the ridge. Have chance PoPs for the entire fa. Muggy conditions are expected again on Sunday with highs from the upper 80s nw to the lower 90s se. Heat indices on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The proximity of a weak and somewhat nebulous surface boundary over the region through early Wednesday will continue to necessitate the potential for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity peaking in the late day in a continued humid airmass. Upper level high over the southeastern U.S. will flatten out and retrograde into the Arklatex region as northwest flow sets up over the northeastern U.S. with ridging in the Great Plains. The northwest flow will help push a surface front through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, ushering in another welcome dry and cooler period to start out September. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 will be found Monday and Tuesday, drop into the 80s Wednesday and be a more pleasant low to mid 80s for the end of the week. Min temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday and Tuesday will drop into the lower 60s by weeks end. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface analysis shows a slow moving front near the Ohio River. With no precip occurring along the front, skies are cloudy due to mid and high level moisture originating from convection over far western Kentucky. VFR will likely continue through the forecast period for the most part, though BR is expected to reduce visibility at LUK and ILN early this morning. Models indicate convection will be isolated at most and thus not worth mentioning in the forecast. Scattered cumulus will probably form during daylight hours, while cirrus persists. Winds will not be much of a factor either with speeds around 5 knots out of the southeast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in the afternoon and evening.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Coniglio

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