Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261750 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS EAST OF ROUTE 23 AND EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED STRIPPING OUT THE WEST COUNTIES AND KEEPING THE EASTERN TIER IN. INSTEAD OF MAKING THE FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR ANOTHER HALF HOUR...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AND BY OR SHORTLY AFTER IT EXPIRES AT 10 THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER CWA. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ON AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER...LEFT THAT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL LOOK HARDER AT THIS IN A LITTLE BIT...ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH FULL SUN I DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE ANY BIG CHANGES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. 00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...FRANKS

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