Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300013 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 813 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak upper level disturbances will lead to the possibility of a few showers or thunderstorms through mid week. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable through the week with daytime highs in the 70s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A line of some fairly healthy looking cu on satellite have developed this afternoon along the I-71 corridor. We are starting to see a few very weak returns on radar across central Ohio. ML capes are still showing some weak cin across the area though and the forecast soundings hang on to a bit of a mid level cap through much of the afternoon. As a result, there is some uncertainty as to how much more this will develop as we progress through late afternoon. Nonetheless, will go ahead and allow for a few showers associated with this through the rest of the afternoon hours, especially across central Ohio. Otherwise, a weak surface trough will drop down across the area through tonight. Moisture and forcing is pretty limited so will just allow for some slight chance pops to sag southeast across our area through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... A weak surface ridge will push quickly east across the mid Ohio Valley through the day on Tuesday. This should help keep us mainly dry through the daytime period and slightly cooler with highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest to the upper 70s in the far southeast. Additional short wave energy rotating around an upper level low over the northern Great Lakes will work across our area Tuesday night. This will be accompanied by some weak isentropic lift. However, moisture is still somewhat limited so will keep pops in the lower chance category. Instability is also marginal and with it being nighttime, will limit pcpn to just showers. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The chance for showers and thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday as a cold front moves east. High pressure following on the northwest upper flow will provide dry weather through early Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms may return Thursday night along a developing frontal boundary. The front is then forecast to become nearly parallel to the flow aloft, resulting in slow movement. Persistent moisture and convergence along the boundary will allow the threat for showers and thunderstorms to continue Friday through Saturday and Sunday, until a vigorous low pressure system disrupts the pattern. After the low and cold front move east, high pressure should bring drier conditions on Monday. Temperatures are forecast to stay relatively close to normal, with highs mainly in the 70s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widely scattered showers developed across northern and central Ohio in response to weak surface trof. These showers weakening and diminishing in coverage with only a few showers remaining. A few showers will continue but are expected to remain north of the taf sites through the evening. Expect mainly mid and high level clouds overnight with mid level cigs likely late. Some patchy fog will be a possibility at KLUK but due to uncertainty have omitted any mention in forecast. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the period with scattered cumulus clouds on Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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