Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220950 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 450 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE INDIANA-OHIO STATE LINE BEFORE STALLING LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS GET INTO EASTERN INDIANA BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT IT TO BE DRY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND MID CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS THROUGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BUT THAT CHANCE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP OFF SOME IN THE EVENING BUT THEN READINGS WILL BE STEADY OR RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THEN THE FORCING BECOMES WEAK. SO THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COMPLETE LULL IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. STAYED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE INDIANA-OHIO LINE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG IT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD AND SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY AT THIS POINT. AS FORCING INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES OFFERED BY BOTH MODELS AND MOS. SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SET UP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF SREF AND ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES WHICH ENDS UP FALLING BETWEEN GFS MOS AND PARALLEL GFS MOS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RISE IN READINGS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PASSES AND TEMPERATURES START FALLING OFF. SYSTEM GETS PRETTY DYNAMIC SO THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND AS COLDER AIR GETS WRAPPED IN THIS WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY MUCH ONCE THE CHANGE OVER TAKES PLACE PLUS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BRISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A DAY. 00Z GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THUS CONTINUED WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AROUND SUNRISE. BEFORE THESE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARRIVE SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT TIMES. SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ALREADY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP KCVG AND KCMH VFR OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCVG AND KLUK AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT AND DUE TO THIS HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA. IF THERE IS ANY FREEZING RAIN EXPECT IT TO BE SHORT LIVED. DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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