Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 030911 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 511 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST. AN EMBEDDED S/W IN THE FLOW WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL TRACK ENE ALONG E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH SFC /925MB LOW TRACKING THRU NRN KY THIS AFTN. THIS PLACES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE A LTL FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. PW/S INCREASE TODAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES OR CLOSE TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY TO DEVELOP WITH BLYR CAPES OF 1000-1400 J/KG ACRS THE SOUTH DURG THE AFTN. GIVEN TRENDS...WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH A LTL FURTHER NORTH ACRS ALL OF NRN KY AND INTO S CENTRAL OHIO. WILL ALSO BUMP UP POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE SOUTH. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND AFTER MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FORM LATE TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. NORTHERN SITES MAY SEE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT FORECAST VFR WITH SITES FARTHER FROM LOW CENTER AND CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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