Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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982 FXUS61 KILN 260819 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 419 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move east across the region today, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms. Drier and cooler weather will move in behind the front tonight and Tuesday. An upper level low pressure system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by mid week which will keep the weather cool due to clouds and the threat for showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mosaic radar this morning depicted showers and a few thunderstorms moving into the northwest counties. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to increase across the western zones through sunrise as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will move east across the region today. The best chance for measurable rain looks to be across the northwest where upper divergence from a pivoting upper level jet will couple with low level forcing. Will range pops from categorical west and north to likely southeast. We should see skies begin to clear from the west during the afternoon as decent subsidence and drier air pushes into the area. Temperatures will range from the upper 60s northwest to near 80 in the far southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A large scale mid level trough will close off as it slowly digs southward into the western Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. For our area, we will see clear skies tonight, with sunny skies expected Tuesday as we remain in the dry, subsidence region behind the departing front and approaching mid level low. It will become a bit breezy across all but the southeast CWFA by Tuesday afternoon due to an increasing pressure gradient and deep mixing. Have wind gusts between 30 and 35 mph in the northwest with 15 to 20 mph in the southeast. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s, which is typical for late September. Models have come into better agreement for Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Aforementioned mid level circulation will continue to drift southward toward the Ohio River Valley. This process will cause clouds to increase from northwest to southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Embedded s/wv energy rotating around the low will combine with diurnal heating to bring a threat for showers all locations by Wednesday. It may be unstable enough for a thunderstorms across our eastern/southern zones by Wednesday afternoon. After a cool start in the 45 to 50 degree range Wednesday morning, highs will range from the lower 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Lows Wednesday night will be pretty uniform given clouds cover with upper 40s expected. The operational GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET continue to struggle as to how far south and west mid level circulation will drift Thursday into Thursday night. For now, kept skies mostly cloudy with a lingering threat for some showers. Have lowered highs on Thursday into the 60s while warming lows Thursday night into the lower 50s due to clouds.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The extended forecast continues to be a dilemma among the operational models in terms of high fast upper level low will linger across our region. The GFS is most progressive while the ECMWF offers the farthest west and slowest solution. The UKMET is in between these two solutions. Given the high uncertainty at this time, have gone with a blend among available models in terms of temperatures while keeping the forecast dry. However, should the low linger per the ECMWF and UKMET, spotty mainly diurnal shower activity may have to be added to the extended on subsequent updates.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Aside from some MVFR/IFR fog at KLUK during the next few hours, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the morning. A cold front will move through the airports between 12Z-18Z, shifting winds to the west, and allowing for some gusts to around 20 knots. Showers are expected to develop near the front, with some additional rain behind it, with MVFR ceilings/visibilities appearing likely to occur. There is also a slight chance of some convection, but since most of the activity is unlikely to have any thunder, this will not be included in the forecast. After the rain comes to an end, MVFR ceilings will remain in place for another couple hours, but skies are likely to clear to VFR by mid afternoon. OUTLOOK...Breezy west winds are expected on Tuesday, with gusts between 25 and 30 knots. Rain and MVFR ceilings are possible from Wednesday through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hatzos

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