Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180626 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 126 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FA...MAINLY IN THE E. THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. CLEAR AREA THAT OPENED UP OVER INDIANA HAS WORKED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND NRN KENTUCKY. EXPECT CLOUDS OUT OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TO WORK BACK IN AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 9 DEGREE IN THE NW TO THE MID TEENS IN THE SE ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COMING OUT OF A MORNING WITH CLOSE-TO-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY WILL EASILY BREAK RECORDS FOR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 18. ALTHOUGH SOME WARMING WILL ALREADY BE OCCURRING ABOVE 850MB ON TUESDAY...THE STATE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. SURFACE ADVECTION IS ACTUALLY RATHER NEUTRAL DURING THE DAY...SKEWING COLD EARLY IN THE DAY AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WARM BY LATE AFTERNOON. INFLUENCE FROM THE SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIMITED...AND TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY GAIN 6-8 DEGREES FROM THE VERY COLD MORNING LOWS. THIS RESULTED IN A MAX TEMP GRID THAT IS WELL BELOW THE RECORD NUMBERS...RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHERN CWA TO LOWER 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WITH THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER COMING OUT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE YET AGAIN...SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL BE EXPECTED...THOUGH THE SIGNALS FOR ANY SORT OF MEASURABLE OR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT STRONG. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. AT LEAST TO START THINGS OFF...THE COLD CONDITIONS FROM THE DAY WILL CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GETTING VERY NEARLY AS COLD AS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MOVES EAST...THE WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 06Z. THIS WILL IMMEDIATELY BEGIN A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION...LEADING TO RISING TEMPERATURES UNTIL MORNING. THUS...TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WERE DRAWN IN NON-DIURNALLY...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR 06Z (09Z IN CENTRAL OHIO). VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER TEENS IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND MID- TEENS ELSEWHERE. CONFIDENCE IN THESE NUMBERS IS ONLY MODERATE. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE JUMP IN MAX TEMPS...AS LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN OHIO ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN ILN COUNTIES. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN LATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL (EVEN IN QPF RESPONSE) ON SEVERAL MODELS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LEADING TO YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WILL BE ONE LAST REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOW/MID 30S SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL AND THEN WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS GOOD WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE INCREASING WAA PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE WAA ALOFT...BOUNDARY LEVEL TEMPS MAY STILL BE BELOW FREEZING DEPENDING ON WHEN/IF ANY PCPN GETS GOING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING RAIN WITH THE PCPN ONSET...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY QPF SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE SO WILL ONLY HAVE POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CONTINUED WAA OUT AHEAD OF THIS...WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN LINGERING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER AS TEMPERATURES PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST ACRS NW OH AND CENTRAL IN. THE BAND IS MOVING EAST AND IS TIMED THRU THE TAFS SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. WHEN THE BAND MOVES THROUGH THE TAFS CONDS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY TO MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY. SINCE THE BAND IS SMALL THIS WINDOW SHOULD ONLY BE TWO TO THREE HOURS. VERY RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE BAND MAY HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR. DURING THE LATE MORNING COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE CIGS AROUND FL030 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. DURING EVENING MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE W TO SW AT 5 TO 15 KTS UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SW 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL LOSS THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND 23Z AND BECOME SW 8 TO 15KT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING NOVEMBER 18 CVG...12 DEGREES...1880 CMH...10 DEGREES...1880 DAY...13 DEGREES...1959 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER 18 CVG...26 DEGREES...1951 CMH...26 DEGREES...1903 DAY...27 DEGREES...1951 AND 1903 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HAYDU CLIMATE...

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