Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171404 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1004 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NRN CWFA TODAY WHILE A COMPACT UPR LVL DISTURBANCE AND SFC LOW ROTATE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE APPROACH OF THE COMPACT DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH...1.75 TO NEAR 2 INCHES...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF STRONG FORCING OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE FAR S CWFA WHERE CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN EMPLOYED. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST/NORTHEAST THE HIGHER POPS WILL GET BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND THAT WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUFFER WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN WHICH IT GENERATES SMALL BUT YET SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JETLETS WHICH SEEM UNREALISTIC GIVEN SUCH A WEAK AND SHEARING OUT SYSTEM. AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT UPR LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR TONIGHT AS IT TRAVELS MORE EAST NEAR OUR SRN CWFA. BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THAT IS WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY HEADING NORTH DUE TO THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 60S. ON MONDAY...DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THE MORNING. AS IT DOES...LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FORECAST. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL MEAN A DOWNWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY. AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRY OUT WITH THE PCPN THREAT COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 60S. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK REFLECTED SFC TROF AXIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME SUN EARLY ON AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MID OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SHORT WAVES IN THIS KIND OF A PATTERN. WILL THEREFORE GENERALLY JUST KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH A BIT OF A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THEM. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN TFOG PRONE LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. TWO WEATHER PRODUCERS TO DEAL WITH TODAY. THE MAIN ONE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMPLEX AND A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE KCVG/KLUK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS COMPLEX IS BEING DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL JET THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE COMPLEX COULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THIS MORNING AND REDEVELOP THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE THUNDER SHOULD END IN THESE TAF SITES BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CONTINUING TILL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS WILL FAVOR IFR VSBYS AND CIGS ACRS THIS AREA AFTER 06Z. THE KDAY/KILN TAFS WILL FARE MUCH BETTER SINCE THE COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THEIR LOCATIONS. ONLY ANTICIPATING VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF CENTRAL OHIO AND PRODUCE VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR VSBY AND CIGS TO DEVELOP KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE IFR CONDS FURTHER SOUTH COULD ADVECT NORTH INTO THE KDAY AND KILN BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...HAYDU

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