Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270757 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 357 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BACK TO OUR WEST FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS IS ALONG THE NOSE OF A SEASONABLY STRONG 925-850 MB JET THAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP/ADVECT INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR FA FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WE BEGIN TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE DICTATED AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT ON EXACTLY HOW THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WORKING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND WITH SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 60 KNOT RANGE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE PROGGED FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 130-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...BUT WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THINK IT IS BEST TO LEAVE THE CURRENT FFA IN EFFECT...AND WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND IT ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXITING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD LEAVE THE TERMINALS PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SOME CLEARING UPSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH THIS CLEARING MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUNRISE. AM NOT FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...MVFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ058-059-066- 073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...LATTO

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