Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181905 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 305 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to provide pleasant fall weather over the area. A weak cold front will wash out before reaching the area on Thursday, but a few clouds may drift across the area Thursday afternoon and night in association with this feature. Dry weather will continue for much of the weekend, before the next cold front and low pressure system will increase the chances for rain by late in the weekend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Generally clear skies and light winds tonight, although a few bands of cirrus tied to weak shortwave energy moving through the flow will cross Kentucky and southern Ohio this evening. Added some valley fog to the forecast for later tonight, though development will be more conditional/uncertain tonight vs. previous nights, thanks in part to increasing gradient in/above the boundary layer as high pressure drifts off to the east, and weak/dying front approaches from the northwest. Think the best chance of valley fog will be in the Scioto Valley - furthest removed from gradient flow, but have also expanded valley fog along the Ohio River and associated tributaries as winds are expected to drop below 4 kts in these areas. The more sheltered the valley - the better the chance at some fog. Temps tonight should run a little warmer than last night - though areas of central Ohio may approach the upper 30s esp Hocking County on to the south toward Lewis County, KY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Quiet, but warmer weather is expected on Thursday. Weak front tied to shortwave energy crossing southern Canada will lose identity with southern extent, and by later in the afternoon should be stretching from northern Indiana/northern Ohio through Lake Erie and Ontario. Modest southwesterly breezes and very little moisture advection should make for efficient warming of the boundary layer - especially in the afternoon as winds turn west-southwesterly - a favorable direction for temps to run above guidance when boundary layer is dry. So running temps a few degrees above blends/guidance for Thursday afternoon underneath what should be ample sunshine. Forecast soundings just not showing any appreciable moisture for cloud cover outside of a little cirrus. Thursday night is another quiet/calm night as surface high pressure redevelops/reasserts itself over WV/KY/TN. Clear skies and seasonable temperatures in this regime.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Upper ridge combined with increasing southerly flow will result in much above normal temperatures along with a continuation of dry conditions through at least the first half of the weekend. Upper ridge will move east as troughing approaches from the west. Northern stream will break off and track through the Great Lakes late Sunday into early Monday. This will cause a cold front to slowly push into the area with increasing chances of showers. The southern stream will briefly close off, which will slow the front`s progression. There will be a secondary surge of moisture traveling along the slow-moving boundary late Monday into Monday night. A more energetic northern stream system will begin to carve out a long wave trough which will migrate from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region on Wednesday. This will result in much cooler conditions. Wednesday will likely being the coolest day of the week with temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal. In addition, there will be primarily diurnal showers both Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period, although some valley fog is likely to plague KLUK as it has in recent mornings. Clear skies this afternoon into tonight as flow begins to drop off with boundary layer cooling. Don`t expect winds to go calm however as increasing gradient will offset radiational component to a degree, so expect light SSWLY flow to maintain in the 3-6kt range at most sites through the night. Given how dry the boundary layer is, this should keep most fog at bay. However sheltered valleys may drop off enough to form a shallow fog layer after 07Z, so included this at KLUK. Expect winds to be a little stronger out of the southwest on Thursday but expect very few clouds aside from a little cirrus. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau NEAR TERM...Binau SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM... AVIATION...Binau

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