Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211756 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 156 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE IMAGES ARE STARTING TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE IS STILL A PRETTY SOLID CLOUD DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY EVEN LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER. WITH CLOUDS AND A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE SOME TODAY AND ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRIER AIR/NVA WILL CONTINUE THE CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN AND PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THEREFORE THINK THE CHANCE OF PRECIP IS QUITE LOW AND MAINLY INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE JUST HAVE SLGT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN/OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EACH WAVE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AND BECOME ABOVE NORMAL AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD PIVOT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AND AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE...EXPECT TO SEE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS THOUGH SO THINK THE NET RESULT WILL PRIMARILY JUST BE SOME SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN MVFR CU TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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