Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
479 FXUS61 KILN 201438 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1038 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will push east of the area today. Above normal temperatures will persist through Monday ahead of the next cold front which is currently forecast to move through the area Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead and along the front, before a much cooler and drier airmass moves in for the later half of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fog has dissipated across the area this morning, and dense fog advisory across east-central Ohio has expired. Aside from patchy clouds across central Ohio, CWA is seeing a good deal of sunshine this morning. Center of high pressure moves toward the Appalachians/Mid- Atlantic today. Would expect to see cumulus development for the afternoon, perhaps enough for the sky to become partly cloudy. Some guidance including the HRRR suggests a few showers trying to develop this afternoon. Given residual influence from high pressure and drier air aloft, think that shower development prospect is very low and therefore will keep forecast dry for now.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Tonight into Monday morning surface high pressure will pull southeast of the area allowing a return of southwest winds to the region. During the day Monday the area should remain mostly dry with forecast soundings remaining capped. The main concern for Monday will be whether or not there will be any clouds for the eclipse. The issue looks to be that there will likely be ongoing convection out towards Iowa which means some convective cloud debris (cirrus) will possibly spread over the area. For now have nudged cloud cover up, but there always exists uncertainty on how opaque this cirrus will be when and if it arrives. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A seasonably strong mid level short wave will rotate down across the southern Great Lakes through the day on Tuesday. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeast across the Upper Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. Good forcing along and ahead of the front will combine with increasing instabilities through the day to produce fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across our area. the thunderstorm chances should then taper off from the northwest heading into Tuesday night as the cold front moves through. Increasing dynamics and strengthening wind fields aloft will lead to developing deep and mid layer shear along and ahead of the front through the mid afternoon hours. This will lead to the possibility of severe storms with damaging wind being the primary threat. Surface high pressure will build down across the Great Lakes behind the front on Wednesday and then remain in place across the region into the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a secondary mid level short wave dropping down across the western Great Lakes and into our area through the day on Thursday. Moisture is pretty limited so will maintain a dry forecast at the moment, but some lower chance pops may eventually be needed with this feature. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and cooler conditions through the remainder of the long term period with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s each day. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak surface high pressure is just east of the area this morning with most TAF sites VFR. Cloud debris from overnight convection has helped to hold back fog formation at most locations. This afternoon slightly drier air will build in with only daytime CU possible. Some high res guidance is trying to get some very isolated coverage going this afternoon, but think this is way overdone given the GFS and NAM forecast soundings (updraft failure from dry air entrainment). Sunday evening, surface high pressure will be off to our southeast with winds veering towards the southwest. Besides restrictions from fog this morning VFR conditions expected. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely Tuesday into Tuesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.