Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 290833
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
433 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A warm and humid airmass will remain in place today. This heat
and humidity will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the
forecast... mainly near and south of the Ohio River this
afternoon. Slightly drier conditions can be expected Tuesday,
under the influence of weak surface high pressure. Thunderstorms
will occur Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Cooler
temperatures and less humid air can be expected through the end of
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Elongated mid level ridge to remain stretched w-e from the mid MS
Vly thru the Ohio Vly. Surface high pressure to build acrs the
Great Lakes today where mid level westerlies will exist. Weak
boundary across the south and instability gradient, may lead to
isold convective development this afternoon. Have limited pops to
chance/slight chance. Highs in the mid/upper 80s northwest, where
drier air will begin to work in, to the lower 90s southeast. Heat
indices look to reach the mid/upr 90s across the far southern
counties. Will continue mention of the heat and thunderstorm wind
and heavy rain potential in HWO product.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any convection that develops this afternoon will diminish this
evening with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will range from the
lower 60s far north, where some drier air will filter in, to the
upper 60s far south.
Weak surface ridge and a little drier air over the region Tuesday.
Have dry forecast Tuesday with only marginal instby in the far
south. Highs look to range from the mid 80s nw to near 90 far south.
Mid level shortwave begins to work into the western Great Lakes
Tuesday night. Expect mainly clear skies in the evening, followed by
an increase in mid/high level clouds overnight. Expect lows in the
mid and upper 60s.
Upper level pattern change with mean trof developing over se
Canada and New England and ridge building over the nations mid
section. This places the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow with
surface front dropping south through the region Wednesday. Forcing
is limited with only weak convergence noted in the low levels and
even instability is limited. Will continue to limit pops to low
chance north and slight chance south.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes and
continue off the New England coast by the end of the week. The
high will continue extend into the forecast area through the
weekend. This will provide dry conditions. Temperatures will drop
closer to normal Thursday and Friday and then start to warm over
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorms have dissipated with loss of daytime heating.
Expect BR to reduce visibilities early this morning in the very
humid airmass. Once the BR burns off by mid morning, VFR should
then persist as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
Thunderstorms may develop again this afternoon but models keep
them west of TAF sites. Sky cover should become rather sparse with
SCT cumulus and altocumulus. Winds will remain light out of the
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.