Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 281441 CCA AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER IOWA THIS MORNING...WITHIN A BROADER TROUGH THAT ENVELOPES THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL. THERE IS A WEAKER VORTICITY MAX OVER INDIANA/OHIO THIS MORNING WORKING NORTHEAST WITH A SCT-BKN DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE OHIO/INDIANA ENERGY WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST WITH STEADY PROGRESSION TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. HOWEVER...A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL AS THE IOWA CLOSED LOW OPENS UP/SHEARS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE 28.12Z RAOB FROM KILN INDICATED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PWAT THIS MORNING /0.79"/ AREAS OF NRN KY WILL TAP INTO A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE THIS AFTN. WITH TROUGHING AND THE SHEARING WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM IOWA...A ROGUE SHOWER CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING AS PWAT IN THIS AREA EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.00" TO 1.25" PER 28.12Z NAM WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BETTER CHANCES FOR A SHOWER SOUTH/EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPS TODAY LOOK GOOD ONCE A LITTLE BETTER SUNSHINE DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDDLE AFTN HOURS IN WAKE OF MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH CLOUDS. LIKE PVS DAYS...A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80 LOOK REASONABLE WHICH LINES UP VERY WELL WITH CLIMO VALUES BASED OFF 925MB TEMPS IN LATE SEPT OF 18-20C.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND INVERTED TROF TO PASS THRU THE TN VLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TO STAY TO OUR SE... SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY AND ONLY ALLOWED FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE A LTL MILDER RANGING FORM THE LOWER 50S NE TO NEAR 60 SW. WITH THIS SYSTEM SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. MODEL SOLN/S SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN STRENGTH BUT SHOW MID LEVEL S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENING SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO OHIO TUESDAY. LATEST ECMWF SOLN IS STRONGEST CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW AND FURTHEST WEST...WHILE CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN PCPN AREA TO OUR NE PRIOR TO FALLING APART. AT THIS TIME HAVE JUST ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL BUT HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS MAINLY IN THE NORTH DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. TROUGHING WILL START TO DEVELOP IN THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION ON THURSDAY AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UNDER LIGHT WINDS...BR IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITY AT LUK AND ILN LATE IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO CONTINUE. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS WITH PERHAPS A FEW CUMULUS...AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO NORTH AT CVG AFTER 12Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CONIGLIO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.