Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 091009 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 509 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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`T SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES INVOLVING THE DGZ. GIVEN THE ABOVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ACROSS THE ARE BUT JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SQUALLS WILL SET UP AS THINGS APPEAR A TAD OUT OF PHASE. THANKS TO BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY. THIS MIGHT HAVE TO EXTENDED BY A BIT FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IF THE BAND OF SNOW EXITS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. AS ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE BAND EXITS DUE TO THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO RISE AS AM EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850 TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -10 DEGREES C. HAVE LOWERS MAX TEMPS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PARALLEL TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL START LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH BANDING FORECASTED TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY 850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP TO NEAR 16 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FINALLY START TO DIE DOWN A BIT AND TURN WESTERLY HELPING TO TAPER OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS EVEN COLDER AS THE BEST AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ALSO REMAINS AROUND -18 DEGREES WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME PEAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15 DEGREES. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHERIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY. DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET. DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND HAS SET UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO THIS MORNING WITH A 1-2 COUNTY WIDE BAND OF IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. THIS RUNS RIGHT THROUGH KILN WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES MORE ON THE FRINGE. THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO IT FOR THE TAF FORECAST. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HANG ON TO THE SNOW BAND THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK AND THEN ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO IFR DUE TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046- 053>056-060>062-081-088. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>080-082. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ063>065- 070>074-077>080-082. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

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