Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011757 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1257 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SLIGHTLY INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER AND EAST OF COLUMBUS AND MARGINALLY ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REMOVED MOST OF THE MIX OF PRECIP EXPECTED HERE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGH TEMPS THE SAME BUT GENERALLY LOWERED THE HOURLIES. WANTED TO TRY TO SHOW A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WAS REALLY ONLY ABLE TO DO THIS FOR THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT CONSIDERING ALL UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WERE STILL ACTIVELY SNOWING EVEN IN RELATIVE LULLS OF RADAR RETURNS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS...IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW MELT AND ADD TO RUNOFF. SO THERE REMAINS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE OF HAVING PRECIPITATION SPREAD BACK WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ENDED UP USING A MOS BLEND FOR TUESDAY TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED TIME WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BLENDED GUIDANCE WAS USED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY WORK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT AT THIS POINT THERE SEEMS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH IT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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TRIED TO BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SNOW AND SLEET/ZR MIX THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ENDING MOST TAF SITES BY 23Z AND KEEPING MVFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK. H8 DRY PUNCH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK UNDERNEATH IT TOMORROW BUT I KEPT A CIG AT CMH/LCK WHERE THE COLD POOL OF AIR AT THIS LEVEL WILL REMAIN IN A GENERAL CAA PATTERN. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME GENTLE INCREASE IN H8 TEMPS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND NOSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. AM NOT OVERLY CONVINCED THAT THE CIG AT CMH WILL REMAIN A MVFR CIG BUT ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE COIN AM CONCERNED THAT THE CLOUD DECK AT REMAINING SITES MAY BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IS IN THE FCST. MADE THE CIG TOMORROW A TEMPO GROUP VERSUS PREVAILING ATTM. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ054>056-060>062. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>053. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-070>072-074. KY...NONE. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ058-059. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ066. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...FRANKS

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