Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240617 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 117 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FOR LEWIS AND SCIOTO COUNTIES. SNOW ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE OR SO DROP EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORT DROPPING THRU SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WEAK SFC TROF TO WORK SE THRU THE FA TOWARD EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH. SATURDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE WORKING ACRS THE REGION. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. FOCUS SHIFTS TO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. GENERAL TREND OF SOLN/S IS A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE SFC WAVE THRU THE SRN I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTN. THE GFS 06Z RUN WAS A LTL SOUTH OF THIS TRACK AND NOW (12Z RUN) HAS SHIFTED THE SFC LOW TRACK TO NEAR CVG BY 00Z MONDAY WITH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK. MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THESE DIGGING SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLN AND WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ALL SNOW ACRS THE NORTH WITH A MIX...CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE CENTRAL AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. IT IS EARLY WITH THIS BEING A 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM I-70 ON NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH. 18Z RUNS ARE TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH STORM TRACK...SO THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER S. HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAY/S HIGHS A LTL COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S N TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING EAST ON MONDAY. KEPT POPS BELOW PRECIP THRESHOLD ON TUESDAY WHEN A MINOR DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO AFFECT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE PROGGED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY. CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY WHEN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY PUSH HIGHS UP TO AROUND 40. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS JUST NW OF THE TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AROUND MID DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK BACK INTO MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH VFR CIGS AT KCVG AND KLUK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HELD OFF BRINGING ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS INTO KCVG UNTIL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDED A VCSH MENTION IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE KCMH AND KLCK TAFS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ100. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...NOVAK

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