Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210108 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 908 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions, along with the threat for showers and thunderstorms, will persist until a cold front moves through the area tonight. High pressure will then settle into the Ohio Valley for the beginning of the week, bringing dry and cooler weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the pre frontal trough are just about to the I-71 corridor. The airmass has begun to stabilize so expect an overall weakening trend as this line progresses east. That being said, the effective 0-1km shear is still in excess of 200 m2/s2 across parts of central ohio. As a result, think a rotator threat may linger for the next hour or so with these cells as they approach the columbus metro area. The actual cold front is just now moving into northwest Indiana. As a result, a lingering shower threat will persist through much of the night until the front moves through late tonight/early Sunday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday morning the cold front will clear the rest of the CWA allowing drier air to filter into the area. PWATs are forecasted to fall to around 0.75" via the NAM and GFS along with dewpoints slowly falling into the upper 50s by Sunday evening. 850 mb temperatures Sunday will also fall from around 16 degrees in the morning to around 11 degrees by the afternoon. 1000/850 mb thicknesses also fall to around 1400 m. Given the forecasted thicknesses and 850 temperatures have raised high temperatures Sunday slightly. Also during the day Sunday the upper level trough axis will push into the area with moderate CAA moving in. Thanks to the steepening lapse rates high res models are indicating some weak shower development occurring Sunday afternoon but think any weak shower development will be north of the CWA. The CAA will also help to support some winds gusts near 20 kts or so. Monday morning the trough axis will push east bringing surface high pressure across our west. As surface high pressure moves in Monday morning low temperatures will fall into the mid 50s. 850 mb temperatures remain similar Monday as forecasted for Sunday which would support another day of high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Tuesday morning surface high pressure will be centered over the PA/WV border bring another morning of cool temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid level ridging will progress east across the area through the day on Tuesday. With a dry airmass in place, expect maybe just some cirrus to start drifting overhead through the afternoon with high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Southwesterly low and mid level flow will develop through the day on Wednesday as the ridge shifts off to the east and some mid level short wave energy lifts up through the mid Mississippi Valley. This will lead to a gradual increase in moisture Wednesday into Thursday with highs mainly in the mid 80s both days. The best forcing through the day on Wednesday and even into Wednesday night looks like it will stay off to our northwest. Will therefore keep Wednesday dry and just allow for some lower end pops to work in from the northwest Wednesday night. A better chance for showers and Thunderstorms will then develop Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front pushes southeast across the area. High pressure and a drier airmass will build back into the area behind the front for Friday and Saturday. Highs for Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Line of showers and thunderstorms will progress east across the I-71 corridor during the first couple hours of the taf period. The actual cold front will move through late tonight and until it does, it will be tough to rule out a few additional showers. Some mvfr cigs will be possible through the night and into early Sunday morning before a drier airmass filters in behind the front through the day on Sunday. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...JGL

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