Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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906 FXUS61 KILN 230605 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 205 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Great Lakes will move southeast into the mid Atlantic states tonight. Southerly winds on the back side of the high will bring a warming trend for the rest of the week. A large low pressure system will move into the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... With dewpoints in the teens across a large portion of the area expect temperatures to drop off quite a bit this evening and into the overnight. Decreased temperatures by a few degrees to account for this. Only expect some high clouds to move into the region overnight. Dry conditions are expected with high pressure. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Low level flow will veer around to the southeast Thursday. A weak warm front will lift north late Thursday into Thursday evening which will bring winds around to the south with wind speeds slowly increasing later Thursday night. 12Z model suite suggests that a few showers could occur near the warm front across the northern counties. Further south, low levels will likely be too dry. Low chance PoPs seems sufficient. Temperature forecast is on the cooler side of guidance. Expect lows Thursday night to be in the evening with rising temperatures later in the night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday continues a strong warm push with the warm front lifted north of area by Friday morning with the forecast area firmly in the warm sector as the upper low cuts off and slowly progresses through the central plains toward the area. With the tightening gradient between the upper ridge off the SE coast and the strengthening low, above normal temperatures for Friday with a strong inversion over the region, but with good mixing allowing for wind gusts up to 25 or even 30kts. As the low winds its way into the western Ohio Valley, there are some differences between the NAM/GFS/GFS Ensemble solution and the ECMWF with most models creating a stacked and slow moving upper low, whereas the ECMWF shows a more progressive and northerly solution with the low, and brings in precipitation sooner than other models. Have leaned more toward the NAM/GFS/Blended solutions but sped up timing slightly allowing for the potential for an earlier precipitation onset. while instability not tremendous with this system, continued with mention of thunder, along with efficient moisture transport bringing the potential for locally heavy rain especially Saturday night into early Sunday. The additional concern is a continued GFS trend in increasing low level wind shear as the stacked low approaches the region by 12z Sunday. Will have to continue to monitor for potential severe threat Saturday night into early Sunday. As the low finally becomes more muted a more zonal pattern dominates the region for Monday through Wednesday. After a brief and weak area of high pressure transitions through the region from Sunday night into early Monday, it will be followed by a progressively moving shortwave to bring another round of precipitation late Monday into the early Tuesday afternoon. Weak high pressure begins to build in from the west, with the region under NW flow aloft for Wednesday with some lingering showers. Dry conditions for Wednesday night as the weak high builds in. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will move off to our east today while a warm front organizes to our southwest and moves northeast toward the region. Mainly clear skies early this morning will give way to gradual thickening and advancing mid level clouds from the west. Easterly surface flow will veer to the southeast with some local gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range. For tonight, a mid level ridge will build northward and shift east into the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will lift northeast through our region. A strengthening low level jet will focus most of its convergence and strongest moist ascent into Wisconsin and Michigan. However, models continue to hint that a few showers will still be possible, especially for the northern terminals as this region will be on the southern extent of the better WAA/lift. Clouds will gradually lower into the 6000-9000 foot range through early morning, then they will briefly lift back up to around 15000 kft once the warm front passes by. In addition, winds will increase from the south late tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off to our east and low pressure moving into the central/southern Plains. The low level jet will become strong enough warrant a period of non convective LLWS in the terminals as we approach 06Z and then waning toward 15Z Friday. Finally, will interrogate models for the potential development of MVFR ceilings toward 12Z as low level moisture is advected north. Some models suggest ceilings in the 1500 to 2500 foot range by Friday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday night into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ077>079-081- 088. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...Hickman

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