Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202017 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 417 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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CONVECTION THAT IS AFFECTING THE TRI-STATE REGION ATTM WASNT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. THE HRRR HAS TRIED TO DISSIPATE ALL AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CONVECTION TOGETHER AND PUSHED IT THRU THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FIGURING OUT POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS TOUGH....SINCE THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIDNT COVER THIS CURRENT CONVECTION WELL. THAT MAKES IT HARD TO FIGURE OUT WHEN TO TRANSITION FROM THE RADAR TO MODEL. DEVELOPED SOME PCPN IN THE TRI- STATE REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z ALONG A WEAK FRONT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE CMC/NAM SOLUTION. THEN LET IT DISSIPATE AS FOCUS SHIFTS TO ENERGY TO OUR NW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THERE IS A LARGE VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY. PREFER A NAM/CMC REGIONAL/HIRES-WRF SOLUTION WHICH DROPS H5 ENERGY INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE NW FLOW. THEY PUSH THE BEST PCPN CHANCE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...AND EXIT IT OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE AFTN. THURSDAY NIGHT BETTER FORCING SHIFTS TO NRN OHIO AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONT MOVES ALSO. PUT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH DECREASING POPS DOWN TO THE SW. ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL H5 ENERGY TOPS THE RIDGE AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP DAYTIME CONVECTION...BUT CENTRAL OHIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING CONVECTION AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL COMPLICATE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ONLY WENT LOWER 80S IN THE NW COUNTIES SINCE THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT HEATING THERE. SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AFTER DROPPING DOWN TO ONLY AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A HOT AND HUMID DAY. OHIO RIVER COUNTIES SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES OVER 100. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AT 12Z ON SATURDAY...THE 20.12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48. A DEEP CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE OVER ID/MT WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM A 593DM HIGH OVER ALABAMA. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWAT FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO SASK...WHILE THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO TN/ARK. DESPITE WEAK FORCING...CONTINUED NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR STRONG DAYTIME INSTBY BOTH SAT AND SUN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE CLUSTERS OF SSE PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTBY...EVEN WITH WEAKENING FLOW WITH TIME...THERE COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT ON EITHER OF THESE DAYS IF A ORGANIZED COLD POOL COULD FORM. GETTING INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH HEAT/HUMIDITY. FLOW BECOMES VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND IT BECOMES QUESTIONABLE IF COVERAGE OF DAYTIME/EVE STORMS WARRANTS MENTION. RIGHT NOW HAVE RUN 15-25% RAIN CHANCES BOTH OF THESE DAYS...AND THAT MAY BE TOO HIGH. INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME HINTS OF HEIGHT FALLS WHICH MAY ALLOW A LITTLE STRONGER FLOW OR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SO A BETTER STORM THREAT THEN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE RIDGE BUCKLING. SO ALL IN ALL...HAVE TENDED TO FOCUS RAIN CHANCES NEAR PEAK HEATING INTO THE EVENING AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRY NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS. FLY IN OINTMENT WILL BE ANY FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT SURVIVES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ORIGINATING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND FALLING DOWN NNWLY FLOW EITHER SATURDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE STORM CHANCE...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE WARM/HUMID PATTERN IS THE STORY FOR THE SAT-WED TIMEFRAME.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF LEFT OVER CLOUDS ALTHOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. APPEARS THAT STORMS COULD START TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. ONCE STORMS DO DEVELOP THERE COULD BE REPEATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SAME AREA BEFORE A LULL OCCURS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES/SNYDER NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...

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