Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301805 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RAIN SHOWERS ARE EDGING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER TODAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO JUMP QUICKLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER THEN EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW DOWN AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN AROUND THE FA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST 40 TO 50 POPS. ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE CLOSE TO KDAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. HANDLED THESE SHOWERS WITH A VCSH MENTION. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE A VCTS MENTION IN AT THE TAFS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BELIEVE THAT THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TAF SITES TONIGHT HOWEVER. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS AT KDAY AND KILN. IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...NOVAK

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