Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 230605
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
High pressure over the Great Lakes will move southeast into the
mid Atlantic states tonight. Southerly winds on the back side of
the high will bring a warming trend for the rest of the week. A
large low pressure system will move into the area over the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With dewpoints in the teens across a large portion of the area
expect temperatures to drop off quite a bit this evening and
into the overnight. Decreased temperatures by a few degrees to
account for this. Only expect some high clouds to move into the
region overnight. Dry conditions are expected with high
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Low level flow will veer around to the southeast Thursday. A
weak warm front will lift north late Thursday into Thursday
evening which will bring winds around to the south with wind
speeds slowly increasing later Thursday night. 12Z model suite
suggests that a few showers could occur near the warm front
across the northern counties. Further south, low levels will
likely be too dry. Low chance PoPs seems sufficient.
Temperature forecast is on the cooler side of guidance. Expect
lows Thursday night to be in the evening with rising
temperatures later in the night.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday continues a strong warm push with the warm front lifted
north of area by Friday morning with the forecast area firmly in
the warm sector as the upper low cuts off and slowly progresses
through the central plains toward the area. With the tightening
gradient between the upper ridge off the SE coast and the
strengthening low, above normal temperatures for Friday with a
strong inversion over the region, but with good mixing allowing
for wind gusts up to 25 or even 30kts.
As the low winds its way into the western Ohio Valley, there are
some differences between the NAM/GFS/GFS Ensemble solution and
the ECMWF with most models creating a stacked and slow moving
upper low, whereas the ECMWF shows a more progressive and
northerly solution with the low, and brings in precipitation
sooner than other models. Have leaned more toward the
NAM/GFS/Blended solutions but sped up timing slightly allowing
for the potential for an earlier precipitation onset. while
instability not tremendous with this system, continued with
mention of thunder, along with efficient moisture transport
bringing the potential for locally heavy rain especially
Saturday night into early Sunday. The additional concern is a
continued GFS trend in increasing low level wind shear as the
stacked low approaches the region by 12z Sunday. Will have to
continue to monitor for potential severe threat Saturday night
into early Sunday.
As the low finally becomes more muted a more zonal pattern
dominates the region for Monday through Wednesday. After a
brief and weak area of high pressure transitions through the
region from Sunday night into early Monday, it will be followed
by a progressively moving shortwave to bring another round of
precipitation late Monday into the early Tuesday afternoon.
Weak high pressure begins to build in from the west, with the
region under NW flow aloft for Wednesday with some lingering
showers. Dry conditions for Wednesday night as the weak high
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will move off to our east today while a warm
front organizes to our southwest and moves northeast toward the
Mainly clear skies early this morning will give way to gradual
thickening and advancing mid level clouds from the west.
Easterly surface flow will veer to the southeast with some local
gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range.
For tonight, a mid level ridge will build northward and shift
east into the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front
will lift northeast through our region. A strengthening low
level jet will focus most of its convergence and strongest moist
ascent into Wisconsin and Michigan. However, models continue to
hint that a few showers will still be possible, especially for
the northern terminals as this region will be on the southern
extent of the better WAA/lift. Clouds will gradually lower into
the 6000-9000 foot range through early morning, then they will
briefly lift back up to around 15000 kft once the warm front
passes by. In addition, winds will increase from the south late
tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure
off to our east and low pressure moving into the central/southern
Plains. The low level jet will become strong enough warrant a
period of non convective LLWS in the terminals as we approach
06Z and then waning toward 15Z Friday. Finally, will interrogate
models for the potential development of MVFR ceilings toward
12Z as low level moisture is advected north. Some models
suggest ceilings in the 1500 to 2500 foot range by Friday
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday
night into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms.
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ077>079-081-
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ073>075-080.