Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150157 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 957 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance will pass south of the region tonight. A weak cold front will approach the area Tuesday and stall across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A few showers are persisting across our far southeast in association with a weak mid level disturbance. Will therefore continue with 20 to 30 pops down that way into the overnight hours. Otherwise, it looks like a fair amount of mid and high level clouds will continue to stream across the region through the night so have made some minor upward adjustments to sky conditions.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Short wave tracking across the Great Lakes on Tuesday will cause a weak cold front to approach the area and then slide into northern counties Tuesday night. Forcing is quite weak with little if any convergence along the boundary. But with glancing upper support and increased moisture, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms in northern counties during peak heating. Temperatures will rise to above normal with highs into the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak frontal boundary will be across our northern CWFA Wednesday morning. Then, as the upper level flow begins to amplify Wednesday into Wednesday night, a warm front will pivot northeast into the region from the southwest, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precipitation this week still looks to occur on Thursday when an embedded s/wv moving across the Great Lakes will combine with decent moisture transport well ahead of a cold front in the low levels to bring the likelihood of showers/thunderstorms. It should also be quite muggy with dewpoints in the lower to perhaps mid 70s. The surface cold front will slowly move east through the region Thursday night into Friday. This will bring an end to the pcpn threat once the front clears the region. For Saturday into Sunday, a mean mid level trough will move through the Great Lakes. As this occurs, surface high pressure will begin to build into the region on Saturday, then settle over the region on Sunday. Diurnal cumulus will lead to partly cloudy skies on Saturday with mostly sunny conditions for Sunday as stronger subsidence takes hold. For Monday, the day of the Great American Eclipse, models indicate that the surface high will be moving east, but will extend across the region. The ECMWF suggest mostly sunny skies while the GFS tries to bring some convective debris clouds east into the region from upstream convection from an embedded s/wv moving into the mid Mississippi Valley. For now, will go more toward the ECMWF which does not show as strong as a disturbance and is much slower. Temperatures will not be too far from climate normals through the period. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered to occasionally bkn cu is persisting across the area early this evening. Would expect the cu to dissipate over the next few hours, leaving mainly some mid and high level cloudiness across the area heading into the overnight hours. Both the NAM and GFS are trying to hint at some fog and sc development later tonight into Tuesday morning, especially across our southeast. The SREF is not as aggressive with this though so am hesitant to completely buy off on it. As a result, have hedged somewhat and will bring in some MVFR to IFR vsbys to the southern TAF sites and go with some sct MVFR clouds. Any fog/stratus should improve through mid to late Tuesday morning. A weak front will drop down from the northwest through the afternoon and this could lead to an isolated shower/thunderstorm across the north toward the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday and Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...JGL

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