Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260805 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 405 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASINGLY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON...STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED JUST OFF TO OUR WEST WITH MODERATE INSTABILITIES WORKING INTO OUR AREA AS ML CAPES PUSH INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. THE WARMER LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO PREVENT MUCH DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HANG TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN A DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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BETTER INSTABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST AND THEN WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM-WRF AND NMM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS...PUSHING AN MCS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...BUT DO DIFFER BY SEVERAL HOURS IN THEIR TIMING WITH THE NAM-WRF BEING FASTER. EITHER WAY...IT DOES APPEAR LIKE FAIRLY HIGH POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS AND GOOD INSTABILITY...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST TONIGHT WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MCS MOVEMENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE PROGRESSIVE STORMS...AND HOPEFULLY LIMIT ANY PROLONGED FLOODING ISSUES. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS TO EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT HEADING INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS TONIGHT...BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE IN PLAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL DECK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 KT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING THESE ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE VERY LATE EVENING TONIGHT...INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. HAVE FORECASTED TEMPO IFR FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS KCVG/KLUK/KILN...WHERE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES OF THESE STORMS BEING LOCATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK BEING AFFECTED. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...LATTO

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