Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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233 FXUS61 KILN 101759 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1259 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple weather disturbances will work through the region through the week allowing for off and on snow showers across the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A s/wv in a northwest flow aloft will pass across the region today. This will bring some mid level clouds. These mid clouds may clear fast enough by late in the day to allow for some sunshine before another s/wv and sfc trof axis bring another round of clouds to the area late this afternoon into this evening. Southwest winds, gusty between 20 and 25 mph, will boost temperatures into the lower to mid 30s for highs. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The weak upper level disturbance will pull out of the area tonight. Could be a slight chance of snow far northeast zones this evening. High pressure will briefly build in to begin the day on Monday. Another disturbance will approach the region by the end of the short term on Monday allowing for a chance of precipitation across primarily northwestern portions of the forecast area. With WAA in advance of this feature temperatures will rise into the middle 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Next in the series of short waves moving through the mean trough will pass across the region early in the period. Associated surface low will track across the Great Lakes with the trailing cold front swinging across the area Monday night. There will be a chance of snow showers with the front with a better chance in the cold air advection behind the front, especially in a band down wind of Lake Michigan. The band will pivot and eventually weaken as winds back on Tuesday. There will be little recovery to temperatures on Tuesday from Monday night lows. And readings will remain 10 degrees or more below normal through Wednesday. A short wave originating in Alberta will decrease in amplitude as it drops into the area Wednesday night with another stronger system coming out of Manitoba Thursday into Thursday night. There remains model spread on how quickly the lead system will diminish. But there is enough potential for light precipitation with this to include low chance PoPs late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Somewhat better chance of snow showers is expected with the second system which will bring a reenforcement of cold air. However, the flow will start to deamplify at the end of the week. This will allow temperatures to rebound back to or a bit above normal by Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mid level clouds will move southeast away from the terminals by late this afternoon. Lower level clouds associated with a disturbance and surface trough will then move into the area from the northwest by this evening. There could be enough saturation to allow for some local MVFR ceilings near or north of KDAY and KCMH. For the overnight period, lower level clouds should become scattered. The surface trough will weaken as it moves. Winds will shift to the west/northwest, then they will become light and variable between 09Z and 12Z. On Monday, a clipper system will dive southeast to the Great Lakes region. The deepest and strongest Warm/moist ascent associated with this system is expected to remain well north of the terminals. Thus, precipitation should stay well north of the terminals with only mid clouds expected. Winds will be from the south between 5 and 10 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday night into Tuesday and then again Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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