Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 122053 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 429 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... PLENTY OF WAA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATRUE FROM NER 80 SOUTH TO MID 70S NORTH EVEN WITH INCREASING CU AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE VERY SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...SO WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AND THE ESTABLISHED RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL REMAINING NEAR 10-15KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING UP AND WAA...HAVE WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG CONTINUED WAA WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CONTINUING FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS. GENERAL TREND OF ECMWF/GFS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WAVES THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. NAM SOLUTION THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE...HAVE KEPT CLOSER TO AN ECMWF/GFS TIMING SOLUTION. WITH THE SE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...A SECONDARY S/WV DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP IT FROM PROGRESSING FASTER...DESPITE THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST. HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER UNDER VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NON-DIURNAL DAYTIME HIGHS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FCST AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS ITS PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA WITH A VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT. VERY STRONG LLJ AND SLOW MOVEMENT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FEED ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS STILL FAIRLY SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG CAA WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED FORECASTING OF RA/SN MIX ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TUE...THOUGH WITH WARM GROUND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ATTM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TUESDAY WILL START WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RETREATING COLD FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RAPID DRYING NOTED BY THE NAM/GFS IS OFFSET BY THE CANADIAN/EURO HOLDING ON TO PRECIP IN THE 12-18 TIME FRAME. WITH THE LAG OF THE UPPER L/W TROUGH...KEEPING PRECIP IN THE SOUTHEAST IS STILL WARRANTED BUT I THINK THE TREND WILL BE TO END IT QUICKER...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEING ADVECTED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...KEPT A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING. AFTER THIS...A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OF COURSE ONLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THIS SCENARIO WHERE THE EURO IS DRY. HPC HAS FAVORED THE MORE ACTIVE GFS AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME IN ITS GRAPHIC BUT DOES NOT NOTE ANY ELEVATED CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THEIR FORECAST. OPTED TO LEAN WETTER TOWARDS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND A GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW WARMING THE OHIO VALLEY A LITTLE EACH DAY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CU HAS BEGUN TO POP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTN. A TEMPORARY CIG IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT IT SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTN...WITH GUSTS UP IN THE LOWER 20 KTS. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND 23Z. MODELS THEN BRING IN AN 40-50 KTS H8 JET THIS EVENING. ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ACT TO DEVELOP SOME 4-5KT FOOT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, THE H8 MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO GET SHUNTED NWD AROUND 15Z. SCATTERED OUT THE SRN TAFS AT THE H8 LEVEL...BUT LEFT AN AC DECK ABOVE. ACROSS THE NRN TAFS...THE MOISTURE DOESNT CLEAR UNTIL AFTER 18Z. WINDS AT H8 WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 14Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...SITES

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