Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 250555
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Southerly winds will keep temperatures much above normal into
the early part of the weekend. An occluded front will move
through the area on Sunday bringing the next chance of
precipitation. Low pressure will track northeast into the
region Monday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Wind gusts will subside this evening, however expect winds to
stay up some through the overnight hours. Went on the warm side
of guidance for low temperatures overnight with southerly flow.
Low temperatures are only expected to drop into the mid to upper
50s. Although a sprinkle or isolated light shower cannot be
ruled out, expect generally dry conditions overnight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A vertically stacked low pressure over the Ozarks at the
beginning of the period will lift north northeast through
Saturday night. The forecast area will be in the warm sector
throughout. Cannot rule out a few showers or thunderstorms
across the western counties Saturday afternoon, but the chance
is quite low. The chance of showers and as well as some embedded
thunderstorms will increase late Saturday night as an occluded
front rotating around the low will be approaching from the
southwest. Temperatures will remain very warm. Forecast has gone
near or slightly above MOS.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level low will lift from the mid Mississippi Valley
to the eastern Great lakes Sunday into Sunday night. The main
upper level trough axis will pivot up across our area through
Sunday afternoon along with an associated axis of more widespread
shower activity. This will also be accompanied with an area of
better instabilities so will continue to include a mention of
thunder through mid afternoon. As we get on the back side of
this axis, pcpn will taper back to scattered showers as we head
into Sunday evening. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s.
Mid level ridging will move quickly east across the area
through Monday morning before another fast moving mid and upper
level trough axis pushes east across the area Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning. This will bring another chance of
showers to the region. The better instabilities remain along and
south of the Ohio River, so will keep the best chance for any
thunder across southern portions of our fa. Highs on Monday
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooling to highs in the
60s by Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will nose down into the area from the
north as it slides east across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This will result in dry but cooler conditions with
highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weakening
upper level trough will lift out of the southern plains and
across the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday, bringing
another chance of showers through the end of the work week.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 50s to mid
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will continue through the forecast period. Moisture will
increase on a southerly flow ahead of low pressure centered far
to the west. This will produce mid and high clouds for the most
part. Showers may occur at CVG in the last part of their 30
hour TAF, but ceilings and visibilities are expected to remain
VFR due to a rather dry boundary layer. Winds from the south
will gust to 20 knots during the afternoon at most sites. Kept
wind shear out of the forecast with models showing speeds below
threshold for inclusion.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities as well as
thunderstorms are possible Sunday. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will be possible again late Monday into Tuesday