Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250555 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 155 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly winds will keep temperatures much above normal into the early part of the weekend. An occluded front will move through the area on Sunday bringing the next chance of precipitation. Low pressure will track northeast into the region Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Wind gusts will subside this evening, however expect winds to stay up some through the overnight hours. Went on the warm side of guidance for low temperatures overnight with southerly flow. Low temperatures are only expected to drop into the mid to upper 50s. Although a sprinkle or isolated light shower cannot be ruled out, expect generally dry conditions overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A vertically stacked low pressure over the Ozarks at the beginning of the period will lift north northeast through Saturday night. The forecast area will be in the warm sector throughout. Cannot rule out a few showers or thunderstorms across the western counties Saturday afternoon, but the chance is quite low. The chance of showers and as well as some embedded thunderstorms will increase late Saturday night as an occluded front rotating around the low will be approaching from the southwest. Temperatures will remain very warm. Forecast has gone near or slightly above MOS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper level low will lift from the mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great lakes Sunday into Sunday night. The main upper level trough axis will pivot up across our area through Sunday afternoon along with an associated axis of more widespread shower activity. This will also be accompanied with an area of better instabilities so will continue to include a mention of thunder through mid afternoon. As we get on the back side of this axis, pcpn will taper back to scattered showers as we head into Sunday evening. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s. Mid level ridging will move quickly east across the area through Monday morning before another fast moving mid and upper level trough axis pushes east across the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. This will bring another chance of showers to the region. The better instabilities remain along and south of the Ohio River, so will keep the best chance for any thunder across southern portions of our fa. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooling to highs in the 60s by Tuesday. Surface high pressure will nose down into the area from the north as it slides east across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will result in dry but cooler conditions with highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weakening upper level trough will lift out of the southern plains and across the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday, bringing another chance of showers through the end of the work week. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR will continue through the forecast period. Moisture will increase on a southerly flow ahead of low pressure centered far to the west. This will produce mid and high clouds for the most part. Showers may occur at CVG in the last part of their 30 hour TAF, but ceilings and visibilities are expected to remain VFR due to a rather dry boundary layer. Winds from the south will gust to 20 knots during the afternoon at most sites. Kept wind shear out of the forecast with models showing speeds below threshold for inclusion. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities as well as thunderstorms are possible Sunday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible again late Monday into Tuesday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Coniglio

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