Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251725 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST (MID 80S TO AROUND 90) APPEARING TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S...SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HERE...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...PERHAPS UP TO 1500 J/KG OVER FAR NORTHWEST OHIO. HOWEVER...THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT IS WEAK...AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN A 20-PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. POPS WERE SPED UP JUST A LITTLE BIT BASED ON 06Z MODEL RUNS AND THE EXPECTED FRONTAL TIMING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE CDFNT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. WILL SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PCPN CHANCE UNTIL AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP THEM LIMITED TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. UPPED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA ON SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE FNT SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER KEEPING SOME PCPN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE MAJORITY NAM/GFS SOLUTION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL WARMER...SITTING IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES. THEY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FOR MONDAY EVERYONE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY STARTS OFF WITH A LEFTOVER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR WILL THE FRONT PUSH SOUTH. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA. THE EURO KEEPS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE EURO SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE WET PATTERN WHILE THE GFS IS A DRIER SOLUTION. PWATS ON THE GFS REMAIN BELOW AN 1" THROUGH TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE FRONT LOOKS WEAK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH AND INTO THE TRI-STATE. 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS THANKS TO DAY-TIME HEATING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS KEEP PRETTY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD FAVOR A DRIER PATTERN (LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY). LATE THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES WEST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD STEP WITH EACH OTHER HERE. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH THE FRONT (VIA PWAT AND OMEGA VALUES) SO AM EXPECTING PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A MIX OF VFR CLOUD LAYERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR VISIBILITIES APPEAR LIKELY FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY TIME SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...HATZOS

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