Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210131 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 931 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... STILL ONE STRAY SHOWER OVER LICKING COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF. DIURNAL CU ALSO CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG AND POSSIBLY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THUS...EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY THE RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WED/WED NIGHT DRIVING THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT AND COOLDOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ATTENDANT TO THESE FEATURES WILL BE DECENT WARMTH/MUGGINESS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND ANOTHER GOOD COOLDOWN/DRYING IN ITS WAKE. IN THE DETAILS...AT 22.12Z THE MAIN FEATURES ON THE MAP ARE A NEAR 600DM ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW MEXICO /WITH ERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/...A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND A WEAK/WANDERING CLOSED LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE...IS A COMPACT/STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING WASHINGTON STATE WHICH WILL BE CRESTING THE NWRN QUADRANT OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH/HEIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN U.S BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND WRN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. TUESDAY BRINGS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AS AN ERN LOBE OF UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S /C/ THERMAL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS ADVECTED IN AS IT MODIFIES AHEAD OF THE SERN MOVING S/W TROUGH. MIXING 925MB TEMPS TO THE SURFACE OFF ALL 22.12Z NWP SOLUTIONS BRINGS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F TEMPS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 60S. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT WATCHING FOR RESIDUAL HEIGHT WEAKNESS/TROUGH AXIS IN SCIOTO VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR AN AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR IN OUR FAR EAST. RIGHT NOW JUST WATCHING THAT POTENTIAL AND RUNNING WITH A DRY FCST. HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MORE ROBUST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BODILY SUPPORT PROGRESSION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE MI/IND/OH AREA BY WED MORNING...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY IMPACTING THE ILN FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING INTO WED NIGHT. STILL WARM/HUMID WITH TEMPS IN MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPTS NEAR 70F ON WED. DESPITE WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE...SYNOPTIC FORCING IS APPRECIABLE FOR LATE JULY AND EXPECT BANDS OF SHRA/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN MOD/STRONG INSTBY WED AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND FIELDS - AS TYPICAL IN LATE JULY - ARE WEAK/MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXPECTED < 25KTS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL WLY FLOW > 30KTS MAY SUPPORT A MODEST SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE INSTBY. THE 22.12Z GFS ALLOWED FOR A MORE-INTACT SEGMENT OF PLAINS-BASED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO ADVECT OVER OHIO AT PEAK HEATING WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES > 7 C/KM WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRONGER INSTBY/DCAPE PROFILE...BUT OTHER 22.12Z RUNS AREN/T IN THIS CAMP WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. RIGHT NOW SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL GIVEN 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION AND DEEPER FLOW MAGNITUDES MOSTLY < 35KTS...BUT AM SURE SOME GUSTY STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT A MINIMUM. THIS FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE NEXT INTRUSION OF BELOW NORMAL PWAT AND DWPTS IN THE 50S...EVEN SOME HINTS OF 40S DWPTS IN CNTL OHIO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THURS/FRI SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER /70S TO AROUND 80F/ AND COMFORTABLE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF NEXT VERY STRONG TROUGH /REF THE COMPACT/STRONG SYSTEM MENTIONED NEAR WASHINGTON STATE ABOVE/ AND ITS TIMING. MUCH LIKE LAST FEW WEEKS...THIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE LONGWAVE ERN CONUS TROUGH AS IT CRESTS THE WRN RIDGE. BEST STORM CHANCES APPEAR CENTERED ON SUN /DAY 7/ AND MON /DAY 8/ BUT SOME HINTS OF LEADING ADVECTION INDUCED SHRA/STORMS SAT AFTN/NIGHT BUT THIS A VERY LOW CHANCE RIGHT NOW. WHILE OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GOOD COOLING JUST BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT RESEMBLING COOL PERIOD OF THIS PAST WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DIURNAL CU SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN A CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW REGIME...EXPECT IFR BR/FG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA MAY HAVE DRIED OUT ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP FOG FROM BEING QUITE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE ON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...JGL

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