Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250210 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1010 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low over the Carolinas will continue to slowly pull away from the region overnight. A few light showers or sprinkles will be possible overnight over eastern Ohio and eastern Kentucky. Weak high pressure will build into the area Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to dry conditions and above normal temperatures. A cold front will push into the region on Thursday and then stall out across the Ohio Valley through the weekend. This will result in a better chance of showers and thunderstorms through the second half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Upper level low over the southeast to drift slowly east to the southeast coast overnight and then track up the eastern seaboard Tuesday. Low level east-southeast flow and weak 8H convergence axis was resulting in a few very light rain showers over eastern Ohio. As these showers move into ILN/s eastern counties they are weakening and falling apart. Will continue to mention a very low pop for a shower in the far east tonight. Otherwise, mid and low level moisture will result in considerable cloudiness overnight. These clouds should mitigate the development of widespread fog but some river valley fog is not out of the question toward sunrise, especially across the sw portion of ILN/s FA. Clouds will keep temperatures mild tonight with lows generally around 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A narrow surface ridge axis will push east across our area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will lead to some developing low level southerly flow and weak WAA through the day on Tuesday. This will result in decreasing clouds with highs on Tuesday into the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Models point to an unsettled weather pattern featuring a persistent frontal boundary, enhanced by several waves of low pressure, fed by a rich supply of moisture. Area will be in a dry southerly flow between two low pressure systems on Wednesday, with no precip expected. That will change starting on Thursday when a cold front is forecast to swing through from the west, bringing the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary will wash out briefly under high pressure Thursday night, before redeveloping as a warm front and lifting across the region Friday to Sunday. This scenario suggests a prolonged period for showers and thunderstorms to develop, lasting through the weekend. A strong cold front is expected to push through Monday, accompanied by more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above normal for most of the period. Highs in the 80s Wednesday will be boosted by warm advection. Readings are forecast to slide back into the 70s Thursday and Friday due to precip and modest cold advection associated with the weakening cold front. Mainly 80s are expected Saturday and Sunday with the area in the warm sector. A retreat toward the near normal upper 60s will be possible Monday behind the stronger cold front. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low level southeasterly flow will continue to lead to an increase in and Low and mid level moisture tonight. Will continue VFR CIGS as low as 4000 feet through the evening. Model solutions show the development of low level moisture late tonight. Have continued to show MVFR CIGs developing at all but KCMH/KLCK late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Have also a mention of MVFR VSBY restriction in river fog at KLUK. If clouds are thinner the potential exists for a period of IFR VSBY restrictions at KLUK. Expect the clouds and any fog to improve with VFR conditions returning by mid morning. East winds at 10 to 15 kts will diminish to less than 10 kts overnight and then become southeast around 10 kts on Tuesday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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