Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 101512 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1012 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN WW.Y TO EXPIRE BUT HAVE EXTENDED SOME COUNTIES THAT WERE SLATED TO DROP OFF AT 10 AM TO 1 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE EASTERN WW.Y WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM. JUST LIKE THE WEST...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. WITH SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12 TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CIGS HAD LIFTED INTO VFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THEY DO APPEAR TO BE BEGINNING TO LOWER BACK DOWN TOWARD MVFR AS SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL IFR AND LOWER VSBYS FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF SOME IFR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND ESPECIALLY AT KCMH/KLCK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN TOWARD EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046- 054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ053-062-072-079>081. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ097>100. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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