Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230139 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 939 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture from Cindy will overspread the region today. A cold front will drop southeast across the area Friday afternoon and evening, with heavy rainfall possible ahead of this front. Temperatures will drop below normal through the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A shield of light rain continues to hold together fairly well as it tracks north/east through the FA this evening. Rainfall, in general, has been quite light thus far (on the order of several tenths in most places - locally higher in extreme southern portions of the FA). Hi-res models /in particular the HRRR/ have consistently handled this pcpn poorly as the coverage has been well- maintained thus far this evening. Therefore, have upped PoPs early tonight, especially along and east of the I-71 corridor, as the shield shifts N/E thru the FA. Given current trends, the light rain may not completely dissipate and/or move out of the area before additional scattered redevelopment initiates towards the end of the near term period, especially for northern portions of the area. Despite the rain-cooled air over the southern FA this evening, do expect temperatures to hold fairly steady through the overnight hours. In fact, with persistent southwesterly flow and a tropical-like airmass in place, temperatures may be steady or even slowly rise through the overnight hours for areas that have cooled down thus far due to the rain. Regardless, it will be a muggy night, with temperatures and dewpoints around 70 degrees area-wide by sunrise Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Friday morning looks wet as the upper level trough axis continues to amplify with a strengthening RRQ approaching from the west. Overall this event has the symptoms of a PRE. As the tropical cyclone approaches a band of precipitation will form Friday morning and be driven frontogenetically (as seen on GFS fgen vectors). The event also is not directly from Cindy but indirectly. The ILN forecast area is in a RRQ and the fgen band looks to help to strengthen the upper level jet. The ILN forecast area is also north and left of the forecast track for Cindy (and north and west of a low level theta-e ridge axis). Run accumulated precipitation on the GFS, ECMWF, NAM and CMC show widespread totals of one to three inches with isolated totals of three to four inches. Give the strong upper level divergence/ diffluence, near max PWAT values, and vorticity advection have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA except Auglaize, Hardin, and Mercer counties. WPC also has the area in a day 2 moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Friday afternoon the band of heavier precipitation will slowly sag southeastwards as the upper level trough approaches from the northwest. The remnants of Cindy will also push east across Kentucky at this time. This means heavy rain will likely continue through the day Friday. Late Friday evening the remnants of Cindy will skirt just south of our southern zones with rain slowly coming to an end early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid level trof to develop over the Great Lakes with westerly flow over the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure to begin nosing into the Ohio Valley Saturday. Expect pcpn to stay north of the area with cool highs in the mid/upper 70s Saturday. Shortwave pivoting through the mean trof over the Great Lakes may lead to few showers but expect this pcpn to stay north of ILN/s FA. Cool temperatures to continue with Sundays highs in the mid/upper 70s. With another s/w and the mean mid level trof across the Great Lakes can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday. Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be about 10 degrees below normal with highs on Monday in the lower and middle 70s. Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday with highs generally in the mid 70s. Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday in the lower 80s. Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn. With an increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A shield of -RA will continue to move north/east through the area this evening, affecting southern/eastern terminals with MVFR CIGs through 03z. With this pcpn, MVFR CIGs will overspread all terminals through the first several hours of the TAF period. As the air column slowly becomes saturated with increased moisture filtering into the area, some brief IFR CIGs may be possible between 06z-12z for all terminals. Towards 12z, additional clusters of SHRA with embedded TS will develop and begin to move southeast through the area for the remainder of the period. Do think that there will be periodic +SHRA embedded within the activity, which may lead to brief IFR/LIFR restrictions at times. Held off on inclusion of TS at TAF sites for now given uncertainty in spatial and temporal coverage of the thunder. Southwesterly winds of 10 to 12 kts are expected during the day tomorrow ahead of pcpn. As the front begins to move through towards the end of the period, winds will shift more westerly and eventually northwesterly. MVFR/IFR CIGs will likely linger for several hours behind shield of pcpn at end of TAF period. OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible Saturday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KC

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