Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 171726
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
126 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Warm weather will continue across the Ohio valley through Tuesday as
high pressure remains off to the southeast and a cold front remains
across the midwest. The cold front currently across the midwest will
move into the area Tuesday night and then stall across the region.
Low pressure will track along the front and move through the area on
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds have continue to move out of the area this morning with
another warm afternoon expected today. Current 12z (17.12) KILN
sounding observed an 850 mb temperature of 15 degrees C with low
level winds showing a strong LLJ (35 kts at 1200). This 850 mb
temperature would imply high temperatures in low to mid 80s with
winds being breezy at times. Only minor changes to the forecast
were made at this time.
Remaining mid clouds will move out of the forecast area this
morning leaving just some cirrus through the rest of the day.
South winds will become gusty particularly north and west of I-71.
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. This
will be near the record for Columbus.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moderate gradient remaining across the region will keep southerly
winds going through the night...becoming gusty again on Tuesday.
Well above normal temperatures will continue. Lows will be near
normal highs. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Monday. Both
lows and highs will be near record warmth. /See Climate section
below for details./
A cold front will slide southeast into the region Tuesday night
and stall across the forecast area on Wednesday. Could see some
decent coverage of showers along the boundary Tuesday evening. But
then forcing becomes weak until Wednesday afternoon as lift starts
to increase with approach of a short wave and low pressure system.
Temperatures will still be quite mild Tuesday night. Should be
enough cloud cover to limit the diurnal rise on Wednesday. Stayed
close to MOS consensus for both periods.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short wave and associated low pressure will track towards the area
Wednesday night and move through on Thursday. This will result in
rain...especially late Wednesday night through much of Thursday...
with limited diurnal change in temperatures.
Thereafter there is some uncertainty whether the main upper trough
axis will pivot through Thursday night...similar to the 00z
ECMWF...or languish and not move through until Friday night...as
forecast by the 00z GFS. This would affect how long showers may
linger in the forecast area. Without a clear signal...have opted
to hold onto chance PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning in the
High pressure will build in for the weekend...although a minor
upper disturbance could swing through the area. Temperatures will
be below normal.
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure will remain anchored off the east coast with
low pressure heading northeast towards Wisconsin. This will allow
the pressure gradient to remain tight across the area with winds
gusty at times. Tonight, low level winds will increase as the LLJ
ramps up towards 55 kts. Usually overnight the atmosphere
decouples helping to hold back higher gusts. Looking at forecast
soundings think this will be the case. Both the NAM and GFS are
showing gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible via momentum transfer. At
2000 ft sustained winds of 50 to 60 kts will be possible with 0-2
kft bulk shear values of 30 to 40kts possible. Given the above
have added a LLWS group into the all of the TAFs.
Tuesday morning the LLJ will begin to decrease but mixing will
start to increase. This will result in wind gusts increasing to
the 20 to 30 kt range by mid-morning. During the day Tuesday the
NAM is hinting at some MVFR cigs possible but think this is
overdone. Tuesday evening a surface cold front will start to nudge
southwards into Indiana bringing a chance of some showers. At this
point, confidence is to low with timing of the front and remains
at the end of the 30 hr TAF so have left mention of precip out.
OUTLOOK...MVFR Ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into
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Cincinnati Columbus Dayton
10/17 record highs 86 in 1950 83 in 1968 86 in 1910
10/18 record warm lows 67 in 1905 65 in 2007 65 in 1947
10/18 record highs 86 in 1938 83 in 1938 86 in 1908