Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182344 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 744 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fairly typical summertime conditions will continue across the region into Saturday. A cold front will then move through Saturday night. Cooler and drier weather will move in for the early part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Storms stretching from northern Indiana into central Ohio will continue through the late afternoon and then dissipate early this evening with the loss of heating. Clouds will diminish but then redevelop late tonight. Forecast lows slightly above guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Conditions should be close to persistence for Friday and Friday night. The main difference will be that diurnal convection may not have as much of a focus as Thursday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will approach the region on Saturday and move through Saturday night. Some thunderstorm activity will develop during the day on Saturday with additional thunderstorms as the front moves through. There is better instability across northwest portions of the region and therefore cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm. Also have better precipitation chances across the northwest. Precipitation chances will decrease Sunday morning, however a few additional showers will be possible across northern portions of the region as an upper level disturbance moves through. In addition expect a decent amount of cloud cover Sunday afternoon with cold air advection. Cooler temperatures will also be present across the region with highs in the 70s to around 80 Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure and dry conditions will be present Monday through the day on Wednesday. Another system will approach the area Wednesday night into Thursday allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Weak boundary remains just north of the TAF sites this evening with convection coming to an end. Any other weak remaining showers and thunderstorms will quickly collapse as day time heating is lost. Overnight the RAP and SREF quickly develop a stratus deck mainly across the south and west. Winds should remain light as the pressure gradient is weak but compared to last night there was not any rain across the TAF sites this afternoon. Have included the mention of a stratus deck for the TAF sites mainly towards the south and west. Confidence at CMH and LCK is to low at this time to include. During the day Friday the terminals will be squeezed between two upper level disturbances (one to the south and one to the north). PWATs are forecasted to remain near average for this time of year with GFS soundings showing a bit of CAP in place. For now have left the mention of precipitation out of the TAFs given low confidence. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines

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