-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 192004
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
404 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Skies will become mostly clear tonight as high pressure builds
into the region. The high will bring seasonal weather for
Sunday and Monday. A strong cold front will move through the
area on Tuesday bringing showers and thunderstorms, before a
much cooler and drier airmass moves in for the later half of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Western edge of line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
affecting Licking county attm. This should be be east of the
region in the hour. Meanwhile farther southwest, isolated
showers and thunderstorms have developed, All of this activity
should weaken around sunset before coming to an end.

Scattered clouds will linger for the first part of the evening,
but should go mostly clear later on. Lingering low level
moisture will lead to fog development tonight. Lows will drop
down to the lower to mid 60s

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over centered over the Ohio Valley for
Sunday. Several models are trying to produce very isolated QPF
spots through out the day. Feel that is more of an indication
of cu development instead of pcpn, so kept the forecast dry for
now. Temperatures will push into the mid to upper 80s

Weak shortwave energy deamplifying as it crosses the Great Lakes
Sunday night shouldn`t have much of an impact on an expected
clear/mostly clear night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected for the start of the long term period on
Monday.  Cu are expected to develop during the daytime hours in
addition to some cirrus beginning to move into the area.  The least
amount of cloud cover is expected to be across portions of northern
Kentucky and south central Ohio with increasing clouds across
northwestern portions of the forecast area northwest of Dayton. Went
on the cool side of guidance for high temperatures on Monday.

After eclipse day on Monday attention turns to a cold front moving
through Tuesday into Tuesday evening.  Although cannot rule out
severe weather anywhere across the region, expect a better severe
potential along and southeast of I-71.  There is also the potential
with the orientation of the flow for some heavier rain near and
south of the Ohio River which could lead to some flash flooding
issues. Front will push out of the area and precipitation will come
to an end by the end of Tuesday night.

With CAA on Wednesday expect cooler conditions and also expect a
decent cu field to develop.  Conditions will be similar on Thursday
with slightly less cu and by Friday expect little in the way of
clouds.  By Saturday expect a slight increase in temperatures with
some weak WAA beginning, however expect continued dry conditions.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection has begun to pop in Central Ohio ahead of weak cold
front and H5 s/w. Have a VCTS in the CMH/LCK for the first
couple of hours of the taf period to cover this activity.

Latest radar image is showing some showers developing north of
CVG/LUK. Will have to keep an eye on this and see if VCSH is
needed farther south.

After the convection pulls off to the east. there could be some
left over scattered ac.

Guidance is suggesting that MVFR fog will develop aft 06Z. IFR
fog is expected in the river valleys. After the fog lifts on
Sunday, few to scattered cu should develop.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday
evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Binau/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Sites