Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141928 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 328 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ILN FA WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH HAVE EXITED EAST. CUMULUS THAT HAVE FORMED TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL FALL CLOSE TO CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST MONDAY MORNING TAKING WITH IT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH ITS ENERGY MOST EVIDENT NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND FORCING IS SHOWN TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN LOCATIONS. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FAR NORTHWEST...DECREASING TO CHANCE FROM DAYTON TO COLUMBUS...AND DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH ONLY A MINOR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVELING EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURNS FROM THE WEST...ENDING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING. CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SINKING AIR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S WILL SLIP A BIT TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT MID WEEK. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL OFFER COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. EXPECT WEDNESDAYS HIGHS TO BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN TO BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF RE-TREATING SFC HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEADING TO GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW...THOUGH GENERALLY WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY EVENING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT KLUK...WITH IFR IN THE FORECAST...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE PARTICULARLY THICK. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (AND ESPECIALLY HEADING TOWARD 00Z)...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

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