Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 192004 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 404 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Skies will become mostly clear tonight as high pressure builds into the region. The high will bring seasonal weather for Sunday and Monday. A strong cold front will move through the area on Tuesday bringing showers and thunderstorms, before a much cooler and drier airmass moves in for the later half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Western edge of line of strong to severe thunderstorms is affecting Licking county attm. This should be be east of the region in the hour. Meanwhile farther southwest, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed, All of this activity should weaken around sunset before coming to an end. Scattered clouds will linger for the first part of the evening, but should go mostly clear later on. Lingering low level moisture will lead to fog development tonight. Lows will drop down to the lower to mid 60s && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be over centered over the Ohio Valley for Sunday. Several models are trying to produce very isolated QPF spots through out the day. Feel that is more of an indication of cu development instead of pcpn, so kept the forecast dry for now. Temperatures will push into the mid to upper 80s Weak shortwave energy deamplifying as it crosses the Great Lakes Sunday night shouldn`t have much of an impact on an expected clear/mostly clear night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry conditions are expected for the start of the long term period on Monday. Cu are expected to develop during the daytime hours in addition to some cirrus beginning to move into the area. The least amount of cloud cover is expected to be across portions of northern Kentucky and south central Ohio with increasing clouds across northwestern portions of the forecast area northwest of Dayton. Went on the cool side of guidance for high temperatures on Monday. After eclipse day on Monday attention turns to a cold front moving through Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Although cannot rule out severe weather anywhere across the region, expect a better severe potential along and southeast of I-71. There is also the potential with the orientation of the flow for some heavier rain near and south of the Ohio River which could lead to some flash flooding issues. Front will push out of the area and precipitation will come to an end by the end of Tuesday night. With CAA on Wednesday expect cooler conditions and also expect a decent cu field to develop. Conditions will be similar on Thursday with slightly less cu and by Friday expect little in the way of clouds. By Saturday expect a slight increase in temperatures with some weak WAA beginning, however expect continued dry conditions. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Convection has begun to pop in Central Ohio ahead of weak cold front and H5 s/w. Have a VCTS in the CMH/LCK for the first couple of hours of the taf period to cover this activity. Latest radar image is showing some showers developing north of CVG/LUK. Will have to keep an eye on this and see if VCSH is needed farther south. After the convection pulls off to the east. there could be some left over scattered ac. Guidance is suggesting that MVFR fog will develop aft 06Z. IFR fog is expected in the river valleys. After the fog lifts on Sunday, few to scattered cu should develop. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.