Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 182344
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
744 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016
Fairly typical summertime conditions will continue across the
region into Saturday. A cold front will then move through Saturday
night. Cooler and drier weather will move in for the early part of
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Storms stretching from northern Indiana into central Ohio will
continue through the late afternoon and then dissipate early this
evening with the loss of heating. Clouds will diminish but then
redevelop late tonight. Forecast lows slightly above guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions should be close to persistence for Friday and Friday
night. The main difference will be that diurnal convection may
not have as much of a focus as Thursday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will approach the region on Saturday and move through
Saturday night. Some thunderstorm activity will develop during the
day on Saturday with additional thunderstorms as the front moves
through. There is better instability across northwest portions of
the region and therefore cannot rule out an isolated strong to
severe storm. Also have better precipitation chances across the
Precipitation chances will decrease Sunday morning, however a few
additional showers will be possible across northern portions of the
region as an upper level disturbance moves through. In addition
expect a decent amount of cloud cover Sunday afternoon with cold air
advection. Cooler temperatures will also be present across the
region with highs in the 70s to around 80 Sunday through Tuesday.
High pressure and dry conditions will be present Monday through the
day on Wednesday.
Another system will approach the area Wednesday night into Thursday
allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak boundary remains just north of the TAF sites this evening
with convection coming to an end. Any other weak remaining showers
and thunderstorms will quickly collapse as day time heating is
lost. Overnight the RAP and SREF quickly develop a stratus deck
mainly across the south and west. Winds should remain light as the
pressure gradient is weak but compared to last night there was not
any rain across the TAF sites this afternoon. Have included the
mention of a stratus deck for the TAF sites mainly towards the
south and west. Confidence at CMH and LCK is to low at this time
During the day Friday the terminals will be squeezed between two
upper level disturbances (one to the south and one to the north).
PWATs are forecasted to remain near average for this time of year
with GFS soundings showing a bit of CAP in place. For now have
left the mention of precipitation out of the TAFs given low
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday
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