Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
845 FXUS61 KILN 071349 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 949 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach the region this morning and move across the area this evening. This will bring a chance of showers and some thunderstorms with locally heavy rain being possible. The front will stall near the Ohio River and then dissipate into midweek, keeping periodic chances of showers/storms through the first part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The ILN CWA remains clear to mostly clear this morning, with a frontal boundary currently in place from near Indianapolis IN to near Sandusky OH. Along and north of this boundary, stratus clouds are in place -- including the far northwest corner of the ILN forecast area (Mercer County OH). Ahead of this front, however, temperatures are already warming into the lower 80s -- en route to highs in the mid 80s to near 90 (in the far southeast CWA). The KILN 12Z sounding recorded a precipitable water value of 1.65 inches. The greater plume of moisture remains just upstream, just ahead of the front, and this plume will advect into the area near peak heating -- providing a very moist environment for storms to develop within, as mentioned in the previous morning discussion. SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg can be expected, and the overall forecast thinking for hazards today has not changed -- a risk of isolated flooding due to heavy rainfall rates (especially with training or slow-moving cells) along with a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts from wet microbursts. To note, the 13Z SPC D1 update included much of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Previous discussion > A weak upper level shortwave trough and associated cold front will continue to approach the area from the northwest early this morning before progressing through later today. Early this morning, only some isolated showers are expected west of I-75 prior to sunrise due to an outflow boundary working in from the west. For the daytime, PWATs increase to around 2 inches noon. These anomalously high PWATs (90th+ percentile) combined with increasing forcing should support fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. Torrential rainfall rates are expected in the strongest cells (2+ inches per hour). Slower cell movement supports an isolated flooding risk into the evening in the heavier cells. Although the severe parameter space remains marginal, isolated strong to damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Due to increasing moisture and rain chances, forecast highs remain capped in the 80s for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... Showers and storms may linger into the overnight hours before eventually diminishing in coverage by Tuesday morning when moisture decreases behind the front. Aside from another brief increase in shower/storm activity being possible southeast of I-71 Tuesday afternoon close to the front, drier conditions are expected for most locations. Forecast highs are in the middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short wave will move across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. In the wake of that system, weak westerlies will be in place which will have minor disturbances moving through it. A more robust trough will track into the upper Great Lakes over the weekend. At the surface, left over boundary across southern counties will wash out leaving broad, weak south to southwesterly flow until the weekend. Flow will increase somewhat as a front associated with the stronger mid level system approaches the region. Expect to have primarily diurnal convection through mid to late week with varying amounts of coverage. There may be a bit better coverage over the weekend with relatively more focused forcing, but that is far from clear at this point. Standardized anomalies of precipitable water indicate that elevated moisture may occur across southern counties on Wednesday, in proximity to the decaying boundary, which would provide fuel for locally heavy downpours. Beyond that, there is not much of a signal for anything beyond normal summertime convection. Highs are forecast to be within a few degrees of normal for this period, but lows look like they may run a bit above normal. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions persist for the morning ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave trough and surface cold front. Shower and thunderstorm coverage develops after 1600z and may persist into the overnight hours while the cold front moves across the TAF sites. Periods of MVFR and IFR conditions are possible when widespread showers and storms are around this afternoon and evening. Shower and storm chances subside between 0000z and 0600z. Around 0600z, MVFR and IFR conditions may develop due to lingering low level moisture and light flow. Light southwesterly flow persists through much of the day today before becoming light and variable tonight. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions due to low stratus or BR/FG are possible early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening, Tuesday through Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM... AVIATION...Campbell