Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171726 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 126 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather will continue across the Ohio valley through Tuesday as high pressure remains off to the southeast and a cold front remains across the midwest. The cold front currently across the midwest will move into the area Tuesday night and then stall across the region. Low pressure will track along the front and move through the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Clouds have continue to move out of the area this morning with another warm afternoon expected today. Current 12z (17.12) KILN sounding observed an 850 mb temperature of 15 degrees C with low level winds showing a strong LLJ (35 kts at 1200). This 850 mb temperature would imply high temperatures in low to mid 80s with winds being breezy at times. Only minor changes to the forecast were made at this time. Prev Discussion-> Remaining mid clouds will move out of the forecast area this morning leaving just some cirrus through the rest of the day. South winds will become gusty particularly north and west of I-71. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. This will be near the record for Columbus. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Moderate gradient remaining across the region will keep southerly winds going through the night...becoming gusty again on Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures will continue. Lows will be near normal highs. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Monday. Both lows and highs will be near record warmth. /See Climate section below for details./ A cold front will slide southeast into the region Tuesday night and stall across the forecast area on Wednesday. Could see some decent coverage of showers along the boundary Tuesday evening. But then forcing becomes weak until Wednesday afternoon as lift starts to increase with approach of a short wave and low pressure system. Temperatures will still be quite mild Tuesday night. Should be enough cloud cover to limit the diurnal rise on Wednesday. Stayed close to MOS consensus for both periods. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short wave and associated low pressure will track towards the area Wednesday night and move through on Thursday. This will result in rain...especially late Wednesday night through much of Thursday... with limited diurnal change in temperatures. Thereafter there is some uncertainty whether the main upper trough axis will pivot through Thursday night...similar to the 00z ECMWF...or languish and not move through until Friday forecast by the 00z GFS. This would affect how long showers may linger in the forecast area. Without a clear signal...have opted to hold onto chance PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning in the east. High pressure will build in for the weekend...although a minor upper disturbance could swing through the area. Temperatures will be below normal. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will remain anchored off the east coast with low pressure heading northeast towards Wisconsin. This will allow the pressure gradient to remain tight across the area with winds gusty at times. Tonight, low level winds will increase as the LLJ ramps up towards 55 kts. Usually overnight the atmosphere decouples helping to hold back higher gusts. Looking at forecast soundings think this will be the case. Both the NAM and GFS are showing gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible via momentum transfer. At 2000 ft sustained winds of 50 to 60 kts will be possible with 0-2 kft bulk shear values of 30 to 40kts possible. Given the above have added a LLWS group into the all of the TAFs. Tuesday morning the LLJ will begin to decrease but mixing will start to increase. This will result in wind gusts increasing to the 20 to 30 kt range by mid-morning. During the day Tuesday the NAM is hinting at some MVFR cigs possible but think this is overdone. Tuesday evening a surface cold front will start to nudge southwards into Indiana bringing a chance of some showers. At this point, confidence is to low with timing of the front and remains at the end of the 30 hr TAF so have left mention of precip out. OUTLOOK...MVFR Ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into Friday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Cincinnati Columbus Dayton 10/17 record highs 86 in 1950 83 in 1968 86 in 1910 10/18 record warm lows 67 in 1905 65 in 2007 65 in 1947 10/18 record highs 86 in 1938 83 in 1938 86 in 1908 1910 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.