Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202054 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 454 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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RADAR SHOWS A LARGE EXPANSE OF ECHOES JUST WEST OF THE AREA HEADING EAST. HOWEVER WITH DRY LOW LEVELS MANY REPORTS OUT OF INDIANA THUS FAR HAVE ONLY INDICATED TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT TO GET SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS ONLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. LOW PRESSURE AND THE INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN AIR MASS HAVE FORECAST LOW A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR NOT WORKING IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THEN CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS WITH IT. BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GET PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN/ SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GENERALLY STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY HIGHS WHERE MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EACH WAVE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AND BECOME ABOVE NORMAL AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ARE WORKING EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY THOUGH SO ANY PCPN WOULD BE FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK AND LIKELY HAVE SOME TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND. AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THOUGH...LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOWERING CLOUD DECK WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. ANY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY AS PREVAILING CIGS TRANSITION BACK TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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