-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 041630
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1130 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BAND OF PCPN ACRS KY AND SRN OHIO ATTM. STARTING TO GET REPORTS OF
MIX WITH SLEET. EXPECT THIS TRANSITION FROM RAIN...MIXED WITH
SLEET TO ALL SNOW THROUGH AFTN AS LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUES. BEST LIFT
COMES INTO PLAY THIS EVENING WHEN BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
DEVELOPS AND FAVORABLE UPR DIVERGENCE IS OVER THE REGION. BASED ON
LATEST DATA...PCPN AXIS A LTL FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW SWATH. HAVE USED A BLEND
OF EQUAL WEIGHTED QPF FROM...CURRENT FCST/12Z GFS/12 NAM/00Z ECMWF AND
HI RES ARW. FROM THESE RESULTS HAVE NUDGED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN 2 TO
3 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED CURRENT HEADLINES WITH THESE UPDATED AMOUNTS.


PREVIOUS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS WORKED THROUGH HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
HAVE ALREADY HAD SOME OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXING IN
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM EXPECT ALL EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TO CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY TO SNOW.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA AND PUSHES
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH AGAIN. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. DUE TO THIS
HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHICH IS TRYING TO SPREAD HEAVIER SNOW A LOT
FURTHER NORTH. DISCOUNTED THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF HOWEVER DID NOT
GO STRICTLY WITH THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. WITH THE SOUTHERN TREND
OF THE SNOWFALL DECIDED TO MAKE THE WINTER STORM WATCH AN
ADVISORY. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING THE SAME. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP NORTHERN CUT OFF TO THE SNOW AND A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL VALUES.

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...SNOW ON
THE GROUND...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES REACH DOWN TO AROUND
NEGATIVE TEN ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER
WITH LIGHT WINDS DECIDED NOT TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLEND AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
ALIGNMENT WITH THE FRONT MAKING ITS PUSH FURTHER INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AS MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED.

REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL TEMPORARILY COME TO AN END EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT IT WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT THERE MAY BE SOME SLEET MIXED IN
AROUND CINCINNATI. OTHERWISE THIS WILL COME BACK AS SNOW.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL THE SNOW
MOVES IN. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS IN THE
DEPARTING RAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AND THERE MAY BE
BREAKS IN THE MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRECIPITATION LULL. WHEN
SNOW MOVES BACK IN CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR IN VISIBILITY WITH
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.

SNOW WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
ONCE THIS HAPPENS IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY.
VISIBILITIES WILL GO VFR AND EVEN LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
     071>074-077>082-088.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-
     071>074-077>082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ054>056-
     062-070.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ066.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...