-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 220815
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
415 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring drier and cooler conditions for the
beginning of the week. Another system will approach the Ohio
Valley at midweek, bringing chances of rain back into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As H5 low spins across upper Great Lakes today, a sfc high will
bring dry conditions. Satellite loop is showing cirrus blow off
working northeast across the region. Models are indicating that
the cirrus will linger for much of the day, so upped cloud
cover today to cover this unexpected cloud cover.

Highs today will be around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure will linger at the sfc tonight keeping the
region dry. Lows will drop to the lower to mid 50s.

Tuesday into Tuesday night, upper level energy will push the H5
low down the Mississippi Valley. This digging will delay the
eastward development of pcpn, keeping the region dry. Highs in
Tuesday will warm into the lower to mid 70s, before cooling back
to the lower to mid 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Wednesday the center of the H5 low will be in the vicinity
of Missouri, with a sfc low over the lower Ohio Valley. The sfc
low will move eastward on Wednesday pushing an area of showers
and possibly some embedded thunder across the region.

12Z GFS/ECMWF runs have, interestingly, trended faster with the
progression of the upper low -- keeping rain chances around for
Thursday, but leaving Friday mostly dry. Will compromise this with
the previous forecast (and a desire to not go too fast with the
departure of an upper low) by allowing PoPs to continue into Friday
morning for the eastern half of the CWA. Though Thursday will remain
similar in temperature to Wednesday, fairer weather conditions will
allow for a notable increase in temperatures on Friday.

Model spread is quite high for the weekend forecast, giving low
confidence in the specifics. A very brief period of ridging is
expected to move across the Ohio Valley on Friday, before a series
of shortwaves in the pseudo-zonal flow begin to affect the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Within the GEFS suite and from run-to-run of
the operational ECMWF/GFS, there are insurmountable differences in
wave amplitude/timing. For now, low PoPs will be maintained through
the entire weekend, with slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will be found over the region as high pressure
builds behind an exiting cold front. Some mid level stratus at
4-5kft may skirt by DAY and later CMH/LCK but the cold pool
creating this cloud deck will be moderating and the stratus
eroding from the south edge. Have used a general forecast of
scattered cirrus with a westerly wind that goes variable as the
high settles in the region this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday and Thursday.
MVFR visibilities possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Hatzos/Sites
AVIATION...Franks