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000
FXUS61 KILN 092011
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL HAVE A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOUND
IN ITS WAKE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL LAY OUT OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND STRENGTHEN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SOME ADDED KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM
DROPPING PAST THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE REGION. HOCKING HILLS
EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY LET THE WIND DECOUPLE HERE AND SOME LOWER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED HERE.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINING GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN LARGE PART TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY REGRESS SOUTHWARD AS THE LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM THE GLANCING SHORTWAVE TONIGHT GET REINFORCED MONDAY NIGHT BY
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A LITTLE CLOSER IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND A LEFTOVER SURFACE EDDY/BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN
RESULTANTS FROM IT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT WITH SOUTH
WINDS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND A WEST-NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST
WIND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OHIO DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SECTION IS PROBABLY BEST VIEWED AT H850 WHERE A CUTOFF LOW WITH A
SW-NE ORIENTATION BISECTS THE STATE FROM CINCINNATI TO ASHTABULA.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE LOW CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SINCE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OH/WV BORDER WITH
THE H8 LOW ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR...A GOOD BIT OF COLD AIR ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE WILL SEE A RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

A FEW FACTORS COME INTO PLAY AS TO HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE SNOW
WILL LAY OUT...NAMELY THE QUICKNESS OF THE SURFACE AND H8 LOWS AS
THEY GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TRAILING AND DEEPENING
H5 TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR NORTH/NORTHWEST OF A DAYTON COLUMBUS LINE. THE ONRUSH OF
COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BE
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.

HIGHS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER
50S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID 60S IN KENTUCKY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. THE
MODELS ARE IN CLOSER ALIGNMENT TODAY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
AND THE THERMAL FIELDS THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.

DIGGING H5 TROF IN THE NRN STREAM SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...SHUNTING THE SFC LOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE RAIN
SNOW LINE THAT WILL BE BISECTING THE REGION AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...WILL
ONLY DROP SWD WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
WORKS IN. THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE SOUTH EXPERIENCES A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. CONTINUED WITH THE FORECAST OF AN EARLY HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTN.

CAA ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP FEED SOME CONVECTIVE  SNOW
SHOWERS. KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
ON FRIDAY...A LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT IT WILL
DRAG A CDFNT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY.

BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND MOVE IT EAST. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A WIDE
VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

A VERY COLD LATE WINTER AIRMASS WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NLY CAA WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO ONLY THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S. THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AND WAA ON FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK UP TO AROUND 50 FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S SATURDAY AND THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AT KILN AND
KLUK HOWEVER EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN BE PRESENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK