-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 011427
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
BRING A WARM UP UNTIL A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP IN MOST LOCATIONS. CU RULE WOULD INDICATE
THAT THE BACK/NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE REGION
WOULD FILL IN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. BUMPED TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO...MOST NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE THOUGHT THAT WSW
WINDS ALOFT AND SW SURFACE WINDS WOULD HELP BRING IN RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR.

AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE HAS BEEN
SHOWING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH THIS MOISTURE. SUSPECT THIS MIGHT
FILL IN A BIT WITH HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL IN PART BE AFFECTED
BY HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS BECOME. GENERALLY USED A MOS BLEND
FOR HIGHS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
STALL OUT. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BUT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS LOW FOR THIS PERIOD.
A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY FORCING AT THAT POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. MOS WAS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART
AND SAW LITTLE REASON TO VARY FAR FROM THOSE NUMBERS WHICH ARE A
BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER ITERATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS
INFLUENCES CYCLOGENESIS IN THAT REGION AND THUS THE SPEED WITH
WHICH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS HAS
BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER THAN EARLIER RUNS WHILE THE
CANADIAN REMAINS SLOWER. WITH THIS MODEL SPREAD COMES INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY. USED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD /FROM THE 00Z SUITE/ ECMWF
TO BLEND INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS TRENDS THE PRECIPITATION AND
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FASTER BUT NOT AS FAST AS OPERATIONAL RUNS.

EXPECT PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. APPEARS THAT AN INITIAL WAVE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
WARMER READINGS WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY THE COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR AT LEAST A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ONE FINAL WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FT. APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME
AFTER 18Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z AREA WIDE. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO BELOW 2000
FT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...