Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 101040 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 640 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A FEED OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND A STRETCHED OUT BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY...DROPPING IN THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MORE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS IN THE REGION THIS MORNING THAN WAS EXPECTED DUE TO H5 S/W AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE FOUND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE AXIS OF THE VORT SWINGS INTO EASTERN OHIO AND THE DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND IT DISSIPATES ANY LINGERING MID CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR BEING PUSHED IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME CU BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80...AND PASSING CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ANY CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL DISPERSE QUICKLY AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER TO FORCE MID OR HIGHER CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY AND LIMIT NIGHTTIME FALLS TO THE MIDDLE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY AND BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD SEE A FEW READINGS TOP 90 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO WRING OUT WHAT MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION BUT BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NWRN CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA AND THEREFORE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AFTER SUNDAY THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES ON SOME OF THE FEATURES HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BY TUESDAY COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AND LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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DIGGING S/W IN THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PVA WILL PUSH E OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...SO THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BY THEN. EXPECT THE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TO REMAIN VFR. BY LATE MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING SOME WEAK CAA AT H8. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR LESS. A FEW SCT VFR CLOUDS COULD FLOAT ACROSS THE TAFS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLUK. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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