Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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075 FXUS61 KILN 111754 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1254 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD POOL OF AIR ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OF THE CLOUDS LOCATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGHS WILL BE COLD...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM. AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. IT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. SHALLOW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR. FOR TONIGHT...CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. CEILINGS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DROP OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT 12 K FT TO 8 K FT. WITH WEAK WAA/LIFT...CEILINGS WILL DROP TOWARD 5 K FT ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z. ON FRIDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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