Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201058 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 558 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the region today with the rain tapering off later this morning into early this afternoon. The next chance for rain will then be on Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves through the region. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A surface low pressure system is centered over southeast Illinois early this morning with a warm front extending eastward from it across southern Indiana into eastern Kentucky. Widespread rain is continuing ahead of the front across our area but there is a back edge to the rain lifting northeast across central Kentucky. A mid level short wave and the associated warm front will lift north across our area through late morning with some mid level ridging building into the area through the afternoon hours. This should allow for the precipitation to taper off from the southwest later this morning and into early afternoon. The models are hanging on to a fair amount of low level moisture through the rest of the day so will remain pessimistic on the sky cover. In the developing WAA pattern, expect highs today ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Brief mid level ridging will weaken overnight with our area remaining in broad southwesterly flow tonight into Saturday. This will allow for developing isentropic lift across the region. Initially, deeper moisture will be lacking tonight so think any shower activity will be spotty. We will then moisten up through the day on Saturday with an increasing chance of showers through the day and then continuing into Saturday night. Some weak instabilities will develop through the afternoon hours and this could lead to a few embedded thunderstorms. Think the best chance for any thunder would be across our southern areas Saturday afternoon into possibly Saturday evening. In continued WAA, highs on Saturday will range from the upper 50s in the north to the mid 60s across the south. An upper level low will push east into the Southeastern United States through the day on Sunday. Ahead of this, some weak mid level energy will eject northward toward the Ohio Valley so will hang on to chance pops through the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs on Sunday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As the low moves ENE going into Monday, and with precipitable water values continuing to remain high for January (near or just under an inch), an increase in rain chances will eventually occur through Monday and Monday night -- especially in the eastern half of the forecast area. Overall model differences with respect to timing are small (when considering longitudinal position) but placement of the low / forcing / precipitation remain a little less clear. Once the low has moved from south of the region to southeast of the region, a switch to northerly flow will allow for a gradual drop in temperatures through Monday and Tuesday. Generally dry conditions are expected on Tuesday, as a narrow ridge arrives into the area. Forecast specifics become less certain by Monday night and Tuesday, with GEFS 500mb height plots showing a wide range in both amplitude and timing of the ridge (and the next wave following behind it). What appears fairly certain is that warmer-than-normal conditions will continue through Wednesday, before a cold front moves through the area at some point on that day, helping to bring in some colder air for the end of the week. Confidence is low with regards to precipitation chances with this front, as GFS/ECMWF suggest it will be lacking in deep moisture. With broad troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday, some light precipitation may develop -- and temperatures during the low end of the diurnal cycle may be cool enough to support some snow. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An area of low pressure was located just west of the TAF sites this morning and is responsible for a broad shield of precipitation across the area. The surface low will continue to track northeast taking the precipitation with it. Rain will come to an end across all TAF sites by 15z this morning. Most terminals are IFR this morning with high res models showing CIGs slowly trying to improve this afternoon. Latest GFS and NAM forecast soundings also indicate mostly IFR/ MVFR conditions through the TAF issuance. Looking at the GFS parallel run though does indicate signs of clouds breaking with TAF sites possible going VFR this afternoon. Generally in a WAA scheme there are breaks in the clouds and have trended TAFs this direction. Friday night into Saturday morning forecast soundings again show low level RH approaching 100 percent meaning a return of IFR cigs. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible into Saturday, and then late Sunday into Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Haines

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