Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 212012 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 412 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers will continue to diminish as the low pressure responsible for the showers and clouds pulles east of the area. High pressure will build in through the first part of the week, bringing drier conditions with warming temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Surface low centered over West Virginia is slowly pulling eastward, and along with it very weak instability. Some of the showers just to the southeast of the forecast area have isolated embedded thunderstorms, so lingered a chance for isolated thunder through the rest of the afternoon. Clearing has been slow to arrive in the western part of the forecast area, so have adjusted temperatures over the next few hours to reflect this. Shower activity to decrease to nil by about 06z, with any lingering showers producing a few hundredths of an inch of liquid at best. Slow clearing in the western part of the forecast area overnight, with the east still being influenced by the upper low and associated energy.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper low continues to pull slightly eastward, but still influencing especially the eastern half of the forecast area, with shortwave dropping southward through eastern and central ohio on the back side of the low. Have continued with a chance for showers in the east during the day on Sunday, along with plenty of clouds. High temperatures also impacted with eastern temperatures peaking out near 70, whereas western forecast area with help of a little more sun should see low to mid 70s. The upper low becomes more broad but continues to pull slowly east as an area of high pressure works into the west. Temperatures gradually warm to more normal conditions with clouds pulling east and plentu of sun with the beginning of sw flow in especially the west.
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&& .Long Term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
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Period begins with a H5 ridge over the lower Ohio Valley, which extends up into the Great Lakes. This combined with sfc high pressure will provide a dry day on Tuesday with slightly above normal temperatures as highs will be in the upper 70s across the region. The H5 ridge will begin to flatten Tuesday night as a S/W swings along the Canadian-U.S. border. This will allow some scattered convection to possibly reach the area late Tuesday night. For the rest of the forecast period a spring like pattern sets up. The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper Great Lakes. A WSW flow at H5 will bring weak embedded vort maxs in the flow helping to pop convection each day which will last into each night. Right now went with 30 PoPs as there is not a clear signal where higher pops can be narrowed down. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday into Friday, with lower 80s possible every where on Saturday. Lows should be mild, as they remain in the lower to mid 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cigs will gradually improve across the region this afternoon. Winds will pick up with some wind gusts around 20 knots this afternoon before decreasing this evening. Scattered light shower activity will be present this afternoon before dissipating this evening. MVFR visbys will be possible at KLUK for a few hours overnight with fog. Winds will pick up again during the day on Sunday with wind gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon. Cu will develop for the daytime hours. Upper level disturbance will lead to the potential for a few showers late in the TAF period at KCMH and KLCK. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible in Thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Novak

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