Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 172259 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 659 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/ INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA. GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN OH/NRN KY. THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN. BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW- MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CEILINGS OVER THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY COMFORTABLY IN THE VFR RANGE...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES...BUT IF ANY OCCURS...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 2000 FEET IN HEIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. IMPACTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOVE 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...THEY WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...HATZOS

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