Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 142337 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 637 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY LET NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP TO ABOUT 10 DEG OFF OF TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS THE AREA OF CLEARING IN NE IN/NW OH THAT WOULD APPEAR TO HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. WILL ADJUST THIS EVENINGS TEMPERATURES DOWN AND EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO WORK BACK IN AFTER A BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WARM ADVECTION WILL EAT AT THE OVERCAST CLOUD DECK EARLY MONDAY FOR SOME SUNNY BREAKS BEFORE THE NEXT OVERCAST DECK COINCIDES WITH THE BAND OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE ERN GTLKS REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES. SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE COOL ENOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MONDAY EVENING...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ON TUESDAY AFTER A MEAGER RECOVERY FROM THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SFC LOW SHOULD HELP LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE PATTERN...BUT WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS OUT...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRUNG OUT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SRN MS VALLEY AND THEREFORE THE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF ITS PCPN IN THE REGION. 12Z GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER...PULLING THE SFC LOW TRACK UP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE OVER DEVELOPED THE H5 S/W. THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS IS A MORE MUTED SFC LOW THAT PUSHES EWD THRU THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. LEANED TOWARDS THIS CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE SRN HALF. THIS COULD FALL AS A MIX OR RAIN/SNOW OR SOME SLEET. SATURDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT LEAVING THE REGION UNDER COLD ADVECTION FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THEY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE 40S FRIDAY WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS BACK IN ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING TAF WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BRIEF BREAK IN NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING SHOULD FILL IN LATER. WAA AND STRONGER GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT LOW CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHRA WILL ENTER WESTERN TAF SITES NEAR END OF TAF PERIOD. VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING LATE MONDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AGAIN. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...PADGETT

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