Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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113 FXUS61 KILN 140927 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 427 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation will expand across the region early this morning. With temperatures near or below freezing, periods of light freezing rain will be possible through the morning. Building high pressure will push the precipitation to the south of the region this afternoon and tonight, before it lifts north again on Sunday and Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak sfc wave to track through the srn Ohio Valley in response to sheared out shortwave moving through the zonal flow. Favorable isentropic lift to expand north this morning and then pivot east by afternoon. Observations and model trends continue to show temperatures above freezing in far south, where all rain will be observed. Expect any ice to be minor (less than a tenth of an inch) but will continue current advisory thru 1 pm and add the far northern counties to the the headline. Expect improvement this afternoon when temperatures warm up and pcpn begins to taper off from the NW. Cloud cover and low level winds shifting from the east to the northwest will keep temperatures from rising much today. Expect highs from the mid 30s nw to the lower 40s se. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Numerical models solns generally similar in establishing strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes tonight which should allow for a temporary end to the precipitation. Some partial clearing possible across the far north, otherwise expect clouds to hang on overnight. Lows to range from the mid 20s north to the lower 30s south. Expect a return of rain, mainly over the south Sunday afternoon associated with the warm front located to our south. Model solns differ on how far north pcpn makes it durg the day. Have limited pops to chance category. Highs on Sunday to range from the mid 30s nw to the lower 40s se. Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Monday night. In warm sector have limited pops to slight chance/chance pops durg most of the day with an enhanced threat for pcpn developing Monday night with the approach of a frontal boundary. Highs on Monday to be very mild, ranging from the mid/upper 40s north to the upper 50s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm front lifting northward through the Ohio Valley early on Monday is getting less and less coverage looking at the QPF fields. This appears due to the h5 ridge in place that would limit any upward motion in the region. GFS has an elongated vort maxima that cuts through a significantly weaker h5 ridge and this was in line with the previous several days forecast. Was hesitant to lower the chances of rain in this period to nothing as a low chance seemed the better forecast. If precip is here at this time, early Monday would see temps below freezing along and north of the I-70 corridor for a few hours until temps quickly rise above 32 deg. As the upper ridge moves east overnight, rain will overspread the region from the west. Some of this may be heavy at times as the surface low tracking to the Great Lakes region is strengthening and the low level jet brings in a good moisture plume from the Gulf. Models begin to diverge on Tuesday as the GFS brings a cutoff low tracking south into the midwest and then east through the region. Canadian and European models are much less robust with the h5 low and keep a more open wave as it crosses further north. This is the warmer and wetter solution which has better continuity from previous forecasts when extrapolating further into Tuesday night and Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley and any rain will end from west to east during the day. GFS was dry for early Wednesday whereas European and Canadian hold the surface front and weak low pressure center over nrn KY early on Wednesday before exiting east. Kept Thursday dry and hedged towards a chance of showers on Friday but feel that any system this far out would only impact areas south of the CWA. Continued to keep to the warm side of guidance for the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Moisture and short wave energy interacting with a frontal boundary will continue to produce less than ideal flight conditions. FZRA will be possible at northern sites DAY ILN CMH and LCK, with RA at CVG and LUK where temps will be just above freezing. Ceilings down to IFR will accompany the mainly light precip. Precip will end around 00z Sunday as high pressure builds from the northwest, though models indicate continued MVFR ceilings. Winds will stay under 10 knots with direction shifting from northeast to northwest. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at times Sunday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080- 082. KY...None. IN...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for INZ050-058-059-066-073-074. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Coniglio

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