Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151741 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1241 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A clipper system will bring snow to the region today into tonight. Some lake effect snow showers will be in place for the day on Tuesday. High pressure will then move into the region allowing for several days of dry weather with a gradual warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The first wave of snow has exited the region. We will have a brief lull in the snow across portions of eastern forecast until more snow moves from west to east across the forecast area this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will range from only the middle 20s across northwestern portions of the forecast area today to the middle 30s across southeastern portions of the region. Winds will pick up today with winds generally around 20 to 25 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A cold front will move through the area this evening into tonight. There is better phasing with upper support across northern portions of the area and and therefore expect higher snowfall totals there. Models have slowed down snow exiting the area and therefore extended the length in time of the winter weather advisory. Isentropic lift remains across southeastern portions of the region longer and therefore linger snowfall chances longer there. Wind chill values will be in the negative single digits across southern and eastern portions of the region tonight into Tuesday and therefore have this mention in the HWO. Across northwestern portions of the area wind chill values will be 10 to 15 below 0 and therefore issued a wind chill advisory for this area tonight into Tuesday. Temperatures will struggle to rise Tuesday with cold airmass in place and cloud cover. With favorable wind trajectories off of Lake Michigan, some light snow showers will be possible through the day on Tuesday across portions of the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High amplitude positively tilted trough will swing across the region early in the period. Thereafter, upper flow will become flatter with ridging developing over the weekend. This will strengthen as a deepening short wave migrates into the central part of the country on Sunday. At the surface, a secondary trough will brush by the northern counties in conjunction with the upper trough. Do not expect measurable precipitation but cannot rule out some flurries. High pressure will build south of the region and then sink further south later in the week. This will put the area in southwesterly flow which will bring a gradual moderation in temperatures as the week progresses. Flow backs to more southerly and strengthens a bit in response to low pressure developing in the Plains and heading into the Mississippi Valley. As a result, temperatures will rise above normal. Increased moisture transport and lift will eventually result in showers. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Low pressure associated with a clipper system will move northeast across the lower Great Lakes into Tuesday. An associated arctic cold front attendant to the low will move east/southeast through the region this evening and overnight. Widespread snow in association with dynamic lift with the clipper system will occur across the terminals for the remainder of the afternoon hours. MVFR/IFR ceilings and IFR/LIFR visbilities can be expected. For tonight, snow will slowly move east and south which should clear the eastern TAFs sites between 03Z and 05Z. Conditions should improve to MVFR conditions once the snow comes to an end. Models suggest that perhaps a lower level dry slot may works its way east/southeast through the region tonight into the first part of Tuesday morning. If this occurs, skies may become VFR. On Tuesday, upper level low and an associated surface trof across the Great Lakes will move southeast into our region. CAA stratocumulus will move/develop southeast through the day. Ceilings should be between 2000 and 2500. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings possible Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for OHZ026- 034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062. Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Tuesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054-060>063- 070>072. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ070>072- 077-078. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ081-088. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for OHZ045-046-054>056. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ063>065- 073-074-079-080-082. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ089>096. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ097>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for INZ050- 058-059. Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Tuesday for INZ050-058-059-066-073-074. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for INZ066- 073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Hickman/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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