Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191714 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 114 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION WILL PIVOT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WARM BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WEAKENING FORCING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED DURING PEAK HEATING. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL S/W OVER INDIANA TO PIVOT SLOWLY NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THRU THE MORNING HOURS. H5 TROF AXIS PIVOTS THRU ILN/S FA THIS AFTN WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTBY WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. THIS FORCING AND INSTBY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... MID LEVEL S/W TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTBY EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH. WILL ALLOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHC TO LINGER IN THE FAR EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOWING INITIAL SRN S/W LIFTING NE WITH ENERGY DROPPING SE INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WHICH YIELDS MODERATE INSTBY. THIS INSTBY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHUD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A LTL ON SUNDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 EAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST. EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOWS WILL BE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW UPR/MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PLACES ILN/S FA AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. WILL LIMIT POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...BUT DECENT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S...WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY. A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODELS RUNS...WITH THE GFS REMAINING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL BUMP UP POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN LINGER SOME POPS INTO THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP CIGS MAINLY BELOW VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS AND MIST WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF KILN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING IFR OVERNIGHT. WAS OPTIMISTIC IN THE FORECAST AND WENT JUST ABOVE IFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIGS WILL BEGIN RISE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY UNDER 5 KT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...LATTO/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...LATTO

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