Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 120824 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 424 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the region today, keeping low clouds and spotty showers or drizzle over us this morning. High pressure will build on Friday and Saturday, bringing dry conditions ahead of a cold front that will cross through the region Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage and then more seasonal temperatures are expected behind it for next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A boundary laying out west to east over the region will dip south towards the Ohio River this morning. While weak ridging will be found at H5, vorticity maxima may be enough to interact with the lower level moisture to squeeze out some more showers or patchy drizzle today. This threat should only persist into the afternoon over central Ohio. Highs today will be muted underneath the thick low clouds, generally in the upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Drying air aloft will not have much of an effect on the low stratus and temperatures will drop into the lower 50s tonight. This may be too cool given a moist airmass and no real threat of radiational cooling underneath a low stratus deck. Friday will gradually see the low clouds dissipate as warm advection kicks in on return flow ahead of the next frontal system that will cross on Sunday. Return southerly flow on Saturday will permit a nice rise in temperatures, back to well above normal. The southerly wind will have overnight lows Saturday in the low to mid 60s - closer to normal high temperatures for this time of year.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Sunday`s cold front will be strong - quickly moving from northwest of the CWA at daybreak to be between the I-71 corridor and the OH/WV border by early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with this frontal passage, and some damaging winds may be present. The speed of the cold air pushing in should inhibit organized deep convection in individual cells. Temperatures behind the front overnight Sunday and moreso Monday and Tuesday will become more seasonal, which will feel abnormally cold given the recent warm trends. Temperatures will moderate towards the end of the forecast period but remain near seasonal norms under a dry airmass.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Post frontal airmass remains very moist in the low levels, and has resulted in IFR status across region. With dry air aloft, expect areas of drizzle to affect the tafs, especially the northern tafs, through sunrise. Cigs will rise to MVFR after 12Z, but then the low clouds will linger for the rest of day. Dry air is finally forecast to begin to push into the region aft 21Z, with clearing forecast to reach KCVG/KLUK around 00Z. OUTLOOK.. MVFR conditions possible Sunday in showers/thunderstorms. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites

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