Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220856 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 456 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will continue to dominate the weather over the weekend before finally breaking down at the beginning of next week. this ridge will offer hot and humid weather conditions. The combination of heat and humidity will create heat index values above 100 degrees. This will result in period of storms to form through the weekend due to the high levels of moisture. The chance for precipitation increases early next week with the expected passage of a cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Upper level ridge centered over the nations mid section will continue to dominate our weather. Latest MCS which originated over northern Illinois pushing south through Illinois and western Indiana. Numerical models have been doing a poor job with placement and timing of these systems. Expect this MCS to continuemore southward into the most unstable air. Have trimmed back early pops with only a chance/slight chance in the far sw counties and this too may have to be cutback with the next update. Much uncertainty regarding additional convective development today. Expect boundary layer capes between 3000-3500 j/kg with the most unstbl air over the north. With weak impulse expected to ridge over the ridge...additional convection will likely occur this aftn. Have limited pops to chance category due to uncertainty of placement/timing. Combination of heat and humidity will result in heat indices around 100 degrees. Therefore, have continued current heat headlines.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Possible ongoing MCS to start the evening expected to drop south- southeast across ILN/s FA and weaken this evening. Remainder of the night should be mainly dry but can not rule out stray pcpn. Warm and humid conditions to continue with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Difficult to pin point timing and placement of convection Saturday and sunday. Have a mention of 40 percent both aftns with the best threat across the north closer to warm front. Heat continues with highs in the lower 90s on both Saturday and Sunday. Given high dewpoints...heat indices above 100 likely Saturday afternoon and possibly again Sunday. For now...have continue heat headlines for Saturday but these headlines may have to be extended into Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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On Monday an upper level low will swing east across the Hudson Bay bringing a weak front across the area. Surface convergence is weak along the front and timing between the GFS and ECMWF is slightly out of phase. The ECMWF is slightly faster than the GFS with the GFS bringing the front through Tuesday morning. The ECMWF bring the front through Monday evening. Have leaned towards the ECMWF here. Behind the front much drier air will filter in with PWATs less than 1.00". This will help to bring a temporary end in the precip until Thursday. At the end of extended Thursday another shortwave will approach the area bringing the chance of rain back to the area.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect VFR to continue for the most part. BR reducing visibility at LUK is the exception. Otherwise, skies are mainly clear to start. Thunderstorms to the northwest may reach DAY around 10z while weakening. Thunderstorms may also occur near ILN around 12z, and near CVG and LUK around 14z. Will monitor radar trends compared to models and amend TAFs to pinpoint time of arrival and duration if necessary. Convection may also develop during afternoon peak heating so have included VCTS at DAY ILN CMH and LCK. Winds will generally be out of the west to southwest, with speeds 12 knots or less. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074- 078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ061-077. KY...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Coniglio

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