Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 230509
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
109 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
An upper level low will drift slowly southeast across the Tennessee
Valley tonight into Sunday. This will lead to a few showers mainly
along and south of the Ohio River tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected through the first part of the week along with a gradual
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upper low to drift south into the TN VLY Sunday. Model solns
continue to trend south with rain showers. Radars continue to
back this trend up with all pcpn south of ILN/s FA. As upper
low shifts south expect all pcpn to stay south of the area.
Therefore have ended all pcpn across the area tonight. Clouds
will continue to thin with clearing from the north.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s in the northwest to
the lower/mid 40s across the southeast. Have continued the
mention of patchy frost over the northwest counties with
temperatures in the upper 30s.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The upper level low will continue to drift slowly southeast into
the southeastern United States Sunday through Sunday night. The
models have trended farther south with the pcpn associated with
this feature with the northern fringe possibly sneaking up just
into our far southeastern fa. Will therefore just allow for
some slight chance pops down toward Portsmouth but otherwise
have a dry forecast for Sunday and Sunday night. We will remain
in northeasterly low level flow through the day on Sunday and
as a result may not warm quite as much as indicated by
guidance. Expect highs on Sunday mainly in the low to possibly mid
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday and Tuesday should have dry weather with a closed upper low
traveling well to the south, leaving the ILN area under a ridge of
high pressure. With models trending slower, mainly dry weather will
continue into Wednesday, until the threat for showers and
thunderstorms begins in increasing moisture and instability ahead of
an approaching cold front. Thunderstorm chances will continue
Wednesday night and Thursday as the front swings across the area.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday and
Saturday when the front is forecast to stall and then lift back
north toward I-70.
Above normal geopotential heights suggest warmer than normal
conditions. Temperatures forecast to rise into the 70s each day will
indeed be above normal through the period.
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Skies have generally cleared out over the region tonight, and
mostly clear skies are expected through the rest of the TAF
period, with just some cirrus at times. Winds will remain out of
the NE through the TAF period as well, with sustained winds of
5-10 knots, gusting to 15-20 knots during the afternoon on
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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