Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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125 FXUS61 KILN 132328 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 728 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper disturbance will pass south of the area tomorrow. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to extend across the region into Tuesday. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for Wednesday into Thursday as moisture increases ahead of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Cumulus will diminish with the loss of heating. But high and mid clouds ahead of a short wave in the lower Mississippi Valley will spread in from the southwest later in night. Guidance seems to have a reasonable handle on lows. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Short wave will track east northeast across the Tennessee Valley on Monday. This will induce a weak inverted trough at the surface that will extend across the southeast counties. Could see a few showers in this region, although it is likely that anything that would fall would be rather light. This will move off in the afternoon and clouds will decrease late in the day and into the night. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer than today except in the far southeast where a thicker cloud shield may linger long enough to suppress highs slightly. Lows Monday night will be slightly warmer than tonight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... By Tuesday morning, surface ridging will have begun to break down across the OH Vly region, allowing for southerly return flow to become a bit more established in the area. With this, seasonal warmth and PWATs will make a return to the area. Although there will likely be a surface frontal boundary positioned in the southern Great Lakes region by Tuesday afternoon/evening, the forcing, both aloft and at the surface, will remain marginal at best in the local area. With this, decided to keep Tuesday dry for now, despite increasing warmth and low level moisture. By midweek, numerical guidance begins to diverge on exactly how the weather pattern may evolve towards the upcoming weekend. Although many solutions point towards several upper level disturbances moving through the mean layer nearly-zonal flow for the second half of the workweek, there continues to be some differences in timing and overall amplitude of said features, both at the surface and aloft. With these differences, timing out individual periods of increased pcpn chances /which will be largely dependent on positioning and timing of individual features/ continues to be a challenge. This being said, the 12z suite of models did converge a bit regarding timing of the main system of interest for Thursday into early Friday. Kept chance PoPs starting on Wednesday /mainly across the west/ even though the degree of instby and forcing remains somewhat in doubt. Do think that Thursday may end up featuring the most widespread shower and storm activity as more focused upper level support arrives and the surface low tracks east across the Great Lakes region. As such, did increase PoPs to the likely category during the afternoon and early evening. Kept chance PoPs through early Friday with aforementioned timing uncertainties. Models have come into a bit better agreement regarding the fcst for next weekend, showing surface high pressure and northwest flow in place. With this, maintained a dry fcst for both Saturday and Sunday. Seasonal warmth is expected through most of the workweek, although with increased clouds and precipitation chances Thursday and early Friday, highs will likely be several degrees cooler than on Tuesday and Wednesday. Did bump up temps across the board for Tuesday and Wednesday as midlevel ridging nudges further north into the region and southerly surface flow increases. Would not be surprised to see a few 90s either of these days, especially for the southeastern/eastern third or so of the FA where clouds and pcpn coverage will likely be more limited. Near normal temperatures are expected Thursday through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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There are still a few lingering cu across the area but these should continue to dissipate over the next hour or so. We will continue to see some cirrus stream in from the west through the overnight hours. A weak disturbance moving across the Tennessee Valley will lead to an increase in some lower VFR cigs along and south of th Ohio River later tonight into Monday morning. There could also be a few showers associated with this feature but the best chance for any pcpn should remain to the southeast of the southern TAF sites. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday night into Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.