Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 312139 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 539 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA...NW PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT HAVE MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SOME UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT. DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT IT TO LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE UP INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM NEAR MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED SE OF THE FA ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER ON MONDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON MONDAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ALTHOUGH STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL PUSH AN INVERTED TROUGH BACK NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO TRANSITION TO IFR FOR OUR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT HAS ALLOWED A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS TO FORM. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THAT HAS FORMED AS A DRY SLOT FROM 500 TO 700 MB HAS FORMED (AS SEEN ON SDF AMDAR SOUNDING). GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT. THE TREND THROUGH THE EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN CIGS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES. THE SREF SHOWS IFR STAYING FURTHER NORTH BUT GIVEN THAT KCVG HAS ALREADY GONE IFR HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS. MONDAY DURING THE DAY EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS MVFR AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAINES

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