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000
FXUS61 KILN 180800
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A SLOW MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR
TONIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DIMINISHING FORCING WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASE CHANCE OF PCPN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS THE ERN/SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 60S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 18.00Z GFS AND THE 18.00Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

UPR LVL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
S/WV RIDGING TO BUILD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE LINGERING TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. S/WV RIDGE IN
THE WEST ALONG WITH A WEAK CAP SHOULD PREVENT PCPN THERE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH ACRS THE
REGION AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN ACRS THE
FAR NW WHERE CAPPING WILL BE THE WEAKEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WHILE UPR
LVL CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ACRS WRN
AND NRN LOCALES.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF MOIST CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE
FOR GENERALLY-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNLIKELY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE...AND KLUK WILL SPEND SOME TIME IN THE IFR CATEGORY AS
USUAL. NEAR SUNRISE...THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AT THE CINCINNATI TAF
SITES WILL BE LOWERING SOMEWHAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE
MVFR THRESHOLD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS COMING
AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
DISORGANIZED. BECAUSE OF THAT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO FORECAST THIS
SPECIFICALLY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT THE CINCINNATI
TAF SITES...AND LESS LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK/HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS