-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 060905
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
405 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKE AND OHIO VALLEY. EXTENSIVE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING NORTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH
WILL THIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUD COVER AND
BY A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH...BUT HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...AVERAGING AROUND 40.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. INCREASED SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL COMBINE TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ABOUT
50.

A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTAINING LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
PRIMARILY LIQUID EVENT IN A REGIME OF RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL TAKE PLACE
IN A REGIME OF MAINLY WNW FLOW ALOFT...AND ALTERNATING BRIEF
PERIODS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE LOW
TRACKS MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFSE SPREADS BY MONDAY ARE NOT
INDICATIVE OF PARTICULARLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING
OF ALL THE WEATHER FEATURES...AND THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY
CLOSE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS...THE 00Z ECMWF WAS QUITE DIFFERENT
IN PHASE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THAN
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN A WHILE. IN FACT...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPS MAY APPROACH 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS UP
AND WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL
MITIGATE ANY FOG FORMATION AND THEREFORE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

MID CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUD DECK DURG THE DAY AND THEN
SCATTERED OUT THURSDAY EVENING LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.


NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL VEER BECOME EAST TODAY
AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AT 6 KTS OR LESS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR