Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 181754
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
154 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017
High pressure in the Great Lakes will move east today and return
flow will set up in the Ohio Valley. A upper level disturbance
will pass through the Great Lakes region tonight at the same
time a weak shortwave passes east through the Tennessee Valley.
The next cold front will cross the region late Thursday and
exit the region early Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure centered over eastern Canada is nosing
down into the upper Ohio Valley this morning, leading to mostly
clear skies across the region. The high will begin to shift off
to the east through this afternoon with return flow developing
late in the day. This will lead to an increase in moisture
across the south with perhaps a few showers sneaking into our
far south late in the day. Highs today will be mainly in the
low to mid 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weak shortwave will move east tonight and any lingering
showers along and south of the Ohio River will be dissipating
overnight but could linger through daybreak in the southeast.
Wednesday will see any leftover showers die out in the south as
any upper support will have left the region. At the same time, a
surface cold front will lay out over the southern Great Lakes
region. This front will bring a slight chance of a shower to the
northern sections of the region, particularly in Ohio north of
the I-70 corridor. The front will lift northward overnight as a
warm front, and then the surface low will track east through
Michigan. A trailing cold front will cross the Ohio Valley
during the day Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will be
found from the late morning in the northwest and continue
through about midnight in the southeast as the front exits the
region. High pressure will then build in the Upper Midwest and
nose into the region behind the front early Friday morning.
Temperatures will be above normal until air behind the cold
front lowers them to near or just below normal Friday.
Wednesday night will see overnight lows only dip into the lower
60s as the warm air really advects into the region on southwest
winds. Thursday will see similar temperatures to Wednesday - mid
and upper 70s. It should be warmer in the southeast Thursday
with readings around 80 with some sunny breaks found in the
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level low approaches for the weekend and into the
beginning of next week. This will allow for cool and cloudy
conditions along with scattered showers. The ECMWF is the
outlier and brings precipitation in a lot quicker. Went with the
slower solutions and bring only a chance of precipitation for
the day on Saturday and more likely precipitation Saturday
evening into Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on
Sunday, but due to the isolated nature left out of the forecast
at this time. Precipitation will gradually taper off Sunday
night into Monday. Went cooler than superblend on temperatures
through this time.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Very thin cirrus remain draped across parts of the region this
afternoon. Midlevel clouds associated with a very weak mid-
level disturbance over the Tennessee Valley region will
gradually overspread the area from the south late this afternoon
into this evening. Some of the hi-res suite of models continue
to indicate isolated SHRA development this evening across
southwestern parts of the area as a result of increased lift
with the midlevel disturbance. As of right now, because of
expected lack of coverage and ample dry air in the low levels,
have withdrawn even a VCSH for all terminals for the period,
even as isolated activity works ENE through the overnight
As light sfc winds go more southerly this evening and
eventually southwesterly tonight, low-level moisture will
increase in the area. This will allow for MVFR, and potentially
IFR, CIGs to develop and overspread the terminals after 06-09z.
Do think that pockets of IFR CIGs will develop in the area, but
do not yet have confidence on exact timing or location for
inclusion as a prevailing condition at any of the terminals.
CIGs may be slow to lift/scatter Wednesday, but do expect some
clearing and lifting to VFR around/after 18z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday morning.
Thunderstorms possible Thursday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
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