Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241049 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 649 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push south across the Ohio River today. High pressure will build into the region tonight, and will remain across the area on Sunday. A stronger cold front will push across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday. Above normal temperatures will cool toward more typical late September readings early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak cold front will push south across the Ohio River today. Low level moisture in the form of low level clouds will advect in behind the boundary. Skies should become mostly cloudy for locations north of the Ohio River by sunrise. Thereafter, diurnal cumulus will likely form along the Ohio River with low level clouds to the north slowly eroding away (and becoming more cumuliform) throughout the day. This setup will make the temperature forecast across the north a bit tricky. Highs will range from the mid 70s across the far north...with locations along and south of the Ohio River warming into the mid and upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The weak cold front will slide a little farther southwest overnight, allowing high pressure to build in from the northeast. Skies overall should become mostly clear. With drier air filtering in, cooler lows can be expected. Lows will range from the upper 40s far northeast to the lower 60s along and south of the Ohio River. Operational models have come into better agreement in terms of timing and strength of synoptic scale systems to affect our region during the early part of next week. Have leaned more toward the GFS as this model solution continues to offer a middle of the road solution to some of the variance still seen. On Sunday, surface high pressure will begin to retreat to the east. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge will also move east across the area. This will result in mostly sunny skies along with continued above normal seasonal temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 70s north to the mid 80s south. The upper level flow pattern will transition into a more highly amplified configuration as we head into early next week. As a mid level trough pushes east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday, an associated cold front will push into our region. There should be enough moisture and dynamic forcing to bring showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to the forecast area, mainly during Monday. Have gone with likely PoPs north with high chance PoPs south. Temperatures will cool down, not only due to the passage of the front but also due to clouds and precipitation. Upper level trough is forecast to form a closed circulation Monday night into Tuesday. As this occurs, our area should find itself in the subsidence region south of the low and in the wake of the exiting frontal system. Skies will clear Monday night from west to east, with mostly sunny skies expected on Tuesday. It will become much cooler. After morning lows in the upper 40s to the lower 50s, highs will only warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s on Tuesday. Clouds will slowly increase across the northern zones Tuesday night as the upper level closed low begins to drift southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models have come into better agreement in the long term period. Mid level closed circulation is now expected to pivot southeast through the region on Wednesday. Skies will become partly cloudy, with perhaps a few spotty showers possible across the far northern zones. Mid level low should slowly push to our east Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing skies to clear. Mid level ridging is expected to return by the end of the week. Temperatures will be the coolest on Wednesday, followed by a gradual warmup toward the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A deck of MVFR/IFR stratocumulus has developed and moved south overnight, enveloping KDAY completely, and encroaching upon the other airports. Through the next several hours, occasional MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be expected -- though IFR ceilings are a little less likely for CVG/LUK. Conditions this morning do not support a rapid improvement in ceiling heights, so it will likely be several hours before conditions become VFR. Northeasterly flow (at or below 10 knots) will continue through the day, with leftover clouds forming into VFR cumulus or a stratocumulus layer. Generally tranquil conditions are expected overnight and into Sunday morning, though some MVFR visibilities may be possible. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday, mainly in the morning and early afternoon.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hickman/Novak AVIATION...Hatzos

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