Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 312016 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 416 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT TO PUSH INTO NW OHIO EARLY AND THEN DROP SE ACRS ILN/S FA AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY THIS EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF LESS CU OVER SW OHIO IN BETWEEN SFC TROF TO THE EAST AND FRONT PUSHING ACRS NRN INDIANA. LOW END MODERATE INSTBY HAS LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS TO PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. HAVE LOW POPS...MAINLY ACRS THE NORTH THIS EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NE TO THE LOWER/MID 60S SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP A BIT AND WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A FEW STORMS THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PREDICTABILITY. SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF IFR BR AT KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/KURZ/AR SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...KURZ

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