Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290535 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 135 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL OHIO IS IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE TRI- STATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST. EMBEDDED S/W OVER THE UPPER MS VLY TO DROP SE INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER OHIO TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS VLY TO TRACK ESE INTO OHIO BY MONDAY EVENING. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS LOW INTO WESTERN OHIO/EASTERN INDIANA TOWARD SUNRISE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUICKER WITH ONSET OF PCPN...WHICH RADAR CONFIRMS. THEREFORE...HAVE SPED UP PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY IS NOW OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW YORK AND PULLING NORTHEAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS. THE SHORTWAVE HAS CURRENTLY SPEED UP A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS NOW HAVE THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA QUICKER. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE STORY FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING THE RAIN INTO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS COMING FROM A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PWATS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 0.6" TO 0.8" AND ARE FORECASTED TO RISE TO NEAR 1.4" BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON (PER GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS). LIFT TOMORROW WILL COME FROM A BALL OF POSITIVE VORTICITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IN GENERAL MOST MODELS KEEP THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MODERATE TOMORROW WITH CAPE VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG. HIGHER CAPE VALUE ARE FORECASTED TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITH LOWER VALUES TOWARDS THE NORTH. SFC DELTA THETA E VALUES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -20. SFC TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE THINK BEST COVERAGE WILL BE TOWARDS THE NORTH TOMORROW CLOSER TOWARDS THE FRONTAL ZONE (WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH) WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE CELLULAR FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SFC DELTA THETA E VALUES SPC HAS PUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WEAK TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD TUESDAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE CWA. BEST CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP LIKELY WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUTSIDE OF THE CWA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL FAVOR THE DIURNAL CYCLE. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH THIS FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT PARTICULARLY IF THERE IS ANY SHORTWAVE OR MCS ACTIVITY UPSTREAM THAT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. TROUGHY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL /ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE/. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC WITH MINIMA CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND MAXIMA AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND WILL LIKELY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE SOLIDLY VFR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IN THE RAIN...THOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT DAYTON). HOWEVER...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE OCCASIONALLY EXPECTED. WHERE RAIN IS A LITTLE HEAVIER...SOME BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THESE INSTANCES WILL BE ISOLATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER ON MONDAY MORNING...AS THE INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY EVENING...AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...HATZOS

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