Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181754 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 154 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in the Great Lakes will move east today and return flow will set up in the Ohio Valley. A upper level disturbance will pass through the Great Lakes region tonight at the same time a weak shortwave passes east through the Tennessee Valley. The next cold front will cross the region late Thursday and exit the region early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure centered over eastern Canada is nosing down into the upper Ohio Valley this morning, leading to mostly clear skies across the region. The high will begin to shift off to the east through this afternoon with return flow developing late in the day. This will lead to an increase in moisture across the south with perhaps a few showers sneaking into our far south late in the day. Highs today will be mainly in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The weak shortwave will move east tonight and any lingering showers along and south of the Ohio River will be dissipating overnight but could linger through daybreak in the southeast. Wednesday will see any leftover showers die out in the south as any upper support will have left the region. At the same time, a surface cold front will lay out over the southern Great Lakes region. This front will bring a slight chance of a shower to the northern sections of the region, particularly in Ohio north of the I-70 corridor. The front will lift northward overnight as a warm front, and then the surface low will track east through Michigan. A trailing cold front will cross the Ohio Valley during the day Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will be found from the late morning in the northwest and continue through about midnight in the southeast as the front exits the region. High pressure will then build in the Upper Midwest and nose into the region behind the front early Friday morning. Temperatures will be above normal until air behind the cold front lowers them to near or just below normal Friday. Wednesday night will see overnight lows only dip into the lower 60s as the warm air really advects into the region on southwest winds. Thursday will see similar temperatures to Wednesday - mid and upper 70s. It should be warmer in the southeast Thursday with readings around 80 with some sunny breaks found in the pre-frontal atmosphere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level low approaches for the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will allow for cool and cloudy conditions along with scattered showers. The ECMWF is the outlier and brings precipitation in a lot quicker. Went with the slower solutions and bring only a chance of precipitation for the day on Saturday and more likely precipitation Saturday evening into Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday, but due to the isolated nature left out of the forecast at this time. Precipitation will gradually taper off Sunday night into Monday. Went cooler than superblend on temperatures through this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Very thin cirrus remain draped across parts of the region this afternoon. Midlevel clouds associated with a very weak mid- level disturbance over the Tennessee Valley region will gradually overspread the area from the south late this afternoon into this evening. Some of the hi-res suite of models continue to indicate isolated SHRA development this evening across southwestern parts of the area as a result of increased lift with the midlevel disturbance. As of right now, because of expected lack of coverage and ample dry air in the low levels, have withdrawn even a VCSH for all terminals for the period, even as isolated activity works ENE through the overnight period. As light sfc winds go more southerly this evening and eventually southwesterly tonight, low-level moisture will increase in the area. This will allow for MVFR, and potentially IFR, CIGs to develop and overspread the terminals after 06-09z. Do think that pockets of IFR CIGs will develop in the area, but do not yet have confidence on exact timing or location for inclusion as a prevailing condition at any of the terminals. CIGs may be slow to lift/scatter Wednesday, but do expect some clearing and lifting to VFR around/after 18z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms possible Thursday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...KC

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