Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251040 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 640 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN CENTRAL OR WEST CENTRAL OHIO IN SOMEWHAT CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. BUT PROBABILITY IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL TAKE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WITH IT...WHICH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY RACE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE WEAKENING IF/BY THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH. BUT IT DOES WARRANT CHANCE POPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DURING TUESDAY MORNING. BUT THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL SEEING SOME SUBSTANTIAL DISCREPANCIES IN FORECAST INSTABILITY. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODEST WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SO SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...A SHORT WAVE BEING EJECTED FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT AND SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL GRADIENT IN READINGS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FRACTURE WITH A PIECE OF IT BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST WHICH WILL LIFT THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT A BIT FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK STRAIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE PREVALENT WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FIRST IMPULSE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS. BUT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MUCH BETTER ON SUNDAY WITH A STRONGER IMPULSE THAT WILL ALSO LIFT A WARM FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL WHILE LOWS WILL BE STAYING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN AT KLUK. EXPECT VSBYS TO QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING THUNDER ARE AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES KDAY...KCVG...AND KLUK. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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