Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180625 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 225 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure south of the Ohio Valley will interact with upper low pressure in the lower Great Lakes, bringing rain showers tonight. High pressure and a dry airmass will travel across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday and Thursday. Another area of low pressure is forecast to bring more showers for Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Broad area of showers associated with mid level shortwave energy will continue to progress ENE across the forecast area over the next several hours. Will see this band eventually exit the eastern portion of forecast area shortly after daybreak Wednesday. Meanwhile an axis of weak low level convergence over northern Ohio and Indiana this evening continues to trigger a few showers progressing ESE. This activity seems to have started waning, as recent HRRR runs have suggested. Tweaked temperatures downward a couple degrees mainly across the far north where clouds will decrease the earliest as drier air encroaches by morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The H7 low will exit east of the region in the morning and significantly dry air will overcome any mid-level forcing associated with the H5 vort maxima moving through as the shortwave trough at this level crosses northern ohio and Lake Erie early on Wednesday. Some lingering low level moisture could eke out a sprinkle with peak daytime heating in the afternoon, but the only concession made on this forecast was to have the non-zero pops of 14% and not clear out the sky cover until late in the day. Clearing and a better warming period is in the forecast beyond Wednesday night but will still be below climatological normals in the lower 70s. Expect nighttime lows to drop into the 40s with the dry and clear airmass in store for Wed and Thurs nights. Abundant sunshine may necessitate an increase in high temperatures on Thursday that will also be combating with cold advection on northerly winds. The next system approaching from the southwest may impact our far southern CWA in northern Kentucky by daybreak Friday with some shower activity on the increase. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Friday morning high pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly be pulling east with upper level low pressure over Maine and the Pacific Northwest. At the same time an upper level disturbance over the midwest will be pulling east towards Ohio. Both the GFS and Euro are in pretty good agreement bringing the system over the area Friday afternoon. This is a tad slower in timing than previous model runs so have made minor adjustments to PoPs to account for this. PWATS quickly rise ahead of the shortwave to just above 1.00" but low level dry air remains. Not until Friday evening does the entire sounding eventually saturate. Lift from the shortwave should be more than sufficient with pockets of PVA moving overhead (further supported by GFS omega values). For now have kept PoPs at likely due to timing uncertainty, but given lift and eventual saturation of forecast soundings categorical PoPs will probably be needed. On Saturday a stronger shortwave will dive south out of Wisconsin merging with the weaker more southern shortwave. This will allow a surface low to form near the Carolinas and track northeast. PWATs do slowly fall on Saturday but the proximity of the low and some remaining instability will keep the chance of precipitation around. Finally on Sunday the area will begin to dry out as the shortwave deepens just east of the area helping to bring in dry air (PWATS falling to just above 0.5") across area. For Monday through Wednesday the Euro and GFS diverge slightly with the GFS not being as progressive with an upper level low that forms just east of the forecast area. The Euro is slightly more progressive. Either way the chance of rain looks low through the remainder of the long term period (Tuesday) as ridging and dry air remain in place. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A shortwave will track thru the region overnight as an upper level low pivoting thru the great lakes. VFR conditions with these showers will drop down temporarily to MVFR for a period toward sunrise. Favorable forcing will end with the shortwave moving thru and the rain will end from west to east late tonight. MVFR cigs will linger into the early morning and then improve as surface high pressure begins to build in from the northwest today. Cigs will improve to VFR by aftn and then scattering out by evening. Winds will generally be light out of the northeast tonight and then from the ne around 10 kts durg the daylight hours. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday and Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Kurz SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...AR

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