Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150549 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 149 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ILN FA WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS BY OVERNIGHT...BUT THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNRISE. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST MONDAY MORNING TAKING WITH IT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH ITS ENERGY MOST EVIDENT NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND FORCING IS SHOWN TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN LOCATIONS. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FAR NORTHWEST...DECREASING TO CHANCE FROM DAYTON TO COLUMBUS...AND DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH ONLY A MINOR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVELING EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURNS FROM THE WEST...ENDING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING. CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SINKING AIR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S WILL SLIP A BIT TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT MID WEEK. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL OFFER COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. EXPECT WEDNESDAYS HIGHS TO BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN TO BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF RE-TREATING SFC HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KT WILL TURN WEST AS THE FRONT PASSES AND QUICKLY NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. POST- FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY VSBY REDUCTION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN CWA. COLD AIR ON NORTH WINDS WILL WRING OUT THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHING IFR 1KFT CUTOFF WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND MIST COULD OCCUR IN THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME TOMORROW. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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