Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 260837 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 437 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. CAA IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. STILL...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 SOUTHWEST ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A MORE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. THE NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/CMC AS THE ECMWF SEEMS JUST A SMIDGEN TOO SLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN SHOULD STEADY OUT OR SLIGHTLY RISE TOWARD MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. ON MONDAY...A WARM DAY IS IN STORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 925 MB TEMPERATURE SCHEMES STILL SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RECORDS AT THE THREE MAJOR AIRPORTS APPEAR SAFE. AM FORECASTING HIGHS OF 77...78 AND 80 AT CMH...DAY...AND CVG. RECORDS ARE 81 (1963)...81 (1897)...AND 84 (1940) FOR CMH...DAY...AND CVG. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE FOR PCPN. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY ACRS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. IN EITHER CASE...WILL STILL CALL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR A FAST MOMENTUM PUSH OF ANY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE LINE. AS SUCH...BELIEVE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH JUST SOME ENHANCED GUSTINESS EXPECTED OUT OF MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOULD THIS CURRENT THINKING CHANGE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW...MAINLY IN LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S WEST TO THE LOWER/MID 70S EAST. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PCPN PRETTY MUCH ENDING ACRS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN INTO OUR AREA...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY SATURDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN STRENGTH SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. .OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JGL/HICKMAN AVIATION...HATZOS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.