-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 161812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST ALONG
IT. THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AT THE MOMENT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND THIS WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ML CAPES PUSHING UP INTO THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW
STORMS CLOSE TO SEVERE LIMITS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAK SIDE SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH NO ONE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT...OR PARTICULARLY DRY EITHER.
ZONE OF BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE OVER THE REGION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TONIGHT
TO THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEY THE INITIATION
OF CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY BROAD LOWER LEVEL OF CONVERGENCE IN
A RECEPTIVE ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL
SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO
GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SLOWLY
EAST...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE OVERALL AREA HAS
BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH SO THINK THE MAIN AFFECT THEY WILL HAVE
ON KCVG/KLUK WILL BE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE ARE ALSO STARTING
TO SEE SOME SPOTTY REDEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IN AREA OF
BETTER CLEARING BETWEEN KCVG/KDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...IT COULD EVENTUALLY POSE A THUNDER THREAT TO SOME OF THE
MORE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT WILL JUST COVER WITH A VCSH AT THIS
POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WEAKENING/SHIFTING THE PCPN OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND WITH
AN OVERALL LACK OF FORCING...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE OVERNIGHT...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME BR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AREA OF BETTER RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL