Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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643 FXUS61 KILN 302100 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 400 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move east of the area this evening. Cyclonic flow will bring cool, mainly cloudy conditions through Friday. High pressure will build in early in the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Cold front will continue across the forecast area late this afternoon and be east of the area this evening. A band of showers has developed along and behind the front. Not clear whether this will be measurable or not, so have kept PoPs in the chance category. There may be a brief break in the clouds behind the precipitation, but then additional cloud cover will spread in overnight. Forecast lows fall within the MOS guidance envelope.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Large closed low over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the period will translate northeast leaving a west to northwest upper flow across the region. Cyclonic low level flow will persist through Friday with moisture being trapped under an inversion, which should result in clouds predominating. Thus highs will be below normal with a limited diurnal range Thursday night. As high pressure starts to build in Friday night, clouds will finally diminish which will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will start out the long term on Saturday. A system approaches Saturday night into Sunday. There is a northern and southern component to this system and models differ on how much phasing between these two components there will be. Trends are towards less phasing which would be a little cooler with temperatures as the warmer air with the southern system would not be drawn up into the region as much. It would also be more of a quicker lighter shot of precipitation than drawing up the southern moisture. Went with the trend towards less phasing, cooler solution, with more rain and snow mix of precipitation. Precipitation will move out of the region Sunday night. A brief lull in the precipitation will occur Monday before a system begins to move in Monday night. There is a decent warm push of air with this system therefore have precipitation as all rain. Expect rain across the area for Tuesday before exiting Tuesday night. Models are variable for a system Wednesday into Wednesday night and with this variance decided to keep precipitation chances lower until there is greater continuity and forecast confidence.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds have finally begun to lift into more of a sct-bkn MVFR to low VFR cu deck across the area early this afternoon. This trend should continue through mid afternoon with the TAF sites trending toward VFR. A cold front will push east across the area through late afternoon and early this evening. A narrow wedge of somewhat drier air will work in behind the front and this could lead to a brief period of some partial clearing. However, wrap around moisture, currently moving across northern Illinois, will pivot eastward into our area tonight. The southern extent of this may be close to our southern TAF sites and the models are borderline as to whether it will be lower VFR or MVFR cigs. Will trend toward the pessimistic side and allow for some MVFR cigs at the northern TAF sits and lower VFR cigs for KCVG/KLUK. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Friday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL

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