Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211424 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1024 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region one more day as a cold front moves east through the region today. High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week offering drier and cooler conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid level low over the Upper MS Vly to pivot north into the western Great Lakes as s/w rotates around its east side. Surface analysis shows low pressure over MN with cold front extending s-se through IN. Band of rain showers associated with low level moisture convergence will exit ILN/s eastern counties leaving a temporary dry for most locations until the aforementioned front moves in. Scattered convection ongoing invof the front across central Indiana. Axis of marginal instability to push across ILN/s fa with this slow moving front today. Have updated pops to reflect this dry period and then bring thunder in with fropa. Have continued mention of heavy rain in HWO with the anomalously moist environment. Also, with latest visible imagery showing clearing in the wake of the front have adjusted sky conditions a little more optimistic after fropa. Slight adjustments a little cooler with temperature due to observed trends. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... A chance of pcpn will linger in the eastern counties early tonight before pushing ewd. Temperatures will cool to the lower 50s in the west to mid 50s in the extreme ern counties. High pressure will build across the fa Monday bringing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Highs will reach only the lower 70s, with a few spots staying in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... By Monday night the new run of the models have already started to diverge. The NAM is the outlier as it brings a sfc low up the Appalachians spreading pcpn into the se counties. The other models keep this pcpn well south of the region. Therefore kept Monday night dry. The H5 low over the wrn Great Lakes splits and a low drops south. Pcpn develops ahead of the energy on Tuesday, mainly in the west. Models have forced a shift in the period of highest PoPs, now focused mainly on Wednesday. There has also been a general trend slower with the eastward progression of the upper low, which is unsurprising for closed upper systems in May. PoPs have been held back a little more significantly on Thursday, with slight chances introduced as well for Friday. This system will also result in a period of cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, possibly improving more significantly by Friday (unless the low continues to hang around through the end of the week). Behind the low, though timing confidence is marginal, there is high confidence that the overall pattern will switch to ridging over the southeastern states through the southern Great Lakes. This will allow for another round of increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Area of rain and showers over western CWA and TAF sites is exhibiting a weakening trend and will continue to do so through the remainder of the morning hours. Isolated convection with some possible thunderstorm activity may occur at KCVG/KLUK through about 14z but this will need to be amended into the current TAF if it occurs. As the flow pulls the moisture north through the region, a break in activity is expected this morning into the afternoon. Showers and possibly some thunderstorms will then move in from the west in the latter morning/early afternoon along the actual cold fropa. Continue to keep thunder mention out. Expect future TAF issuances would hammer out details with amendments to include the deeper convection as it becomes more evident. Activity will end in the evening and skies will clear overnight. VFR rain with MVFR cigs are expected this morning and these will lift through the day. Any MVFR cigs/vsbys from there onward would be with shower activity. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wed and Thurs. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR/Sites NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Franks

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