Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 230243
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1043 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
An upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will
continue to dominate the weather over the weekend before finally
breaking down at the beginning of next week. This ridge will
offer hot and humid weather conditions. The combination of heat
and humidity will create heat index values above 100 degrees. Weak
disturbances along with the heat and humidity will bring scattered
showers and storms. A stronger cold front will push through Monday
with more showers and storms. Slightly cooler and less humid air
will settle in behind the front for next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --A boundary will wash out across the area overnight. Cloud cover
has decreased and will continue to decrease across the area. Winds
will continue to decrease and be light. Lots of areas received
decent rainfall earlier today as well. Due to a combination of
these factors added in patchy fog and in some locations areas of
fog. Dry conditions are expected through the overnight hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not expecting a repeat of amount of convection for Saturday. With
this in mind and expected high temps and dewpoints have continued
with heat headlines Saturday. While not meeting 2 consecutive days
of heat indices of 100 at Cincy and Dayton due to the clouds and
convection today will not fall back to advisory and cause any
confusion that it might not be as hot. Another hot and humid day
for Sunday. Again some uncertainty of convection and numbers not
meeting heat criteria headlines so will hold off any heat
headlines for Sunday for now. Have tweaked pops down a bit for
Saturday as models focusing more widespread convection to north
and west of fcst area. Still think widely scattered mainly
afternoon and evening activity should occur with the heat and
humidity in place and any possible boundaries around. Have kept
chance pops in for Sunday with models indicating a bit better
prospect especially across the north and west. Temps near guidance
for Saturday and Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early Monday morning upper level ridging will nudge west as an upper
level low over Ontario pushes east allowing for weak mid-level flow
over the region. Monday afternoon a weak surface cold front will
push into the area helping to act as a trigger for showers and
thunderstorms. PWATs Monday are forecasted to be around 2.00" with
ML CAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Given these elevated moisture
values and weak instability have raised PoPs. The cold front will
then stall just south of the Ohio river Tuesday morning (ECMWF and
GFS in good agreement). Behind the cold front PWATs fall to below
0.75" while ahead of the front PWATS remain above 1.50". GFS
forecast soundings for KCVG show PWATs remaining elevated while
quickly falling at KCMH. For now have just bumped PoPs up across the
Tuesday into Wednesday the front will remained stalled just south of
the area and slowly start to wash out. Even behind the front though
850 temperatures are forecasted to be around 18 degrees C so am
expecting temperatures near climo. Late Wednesday into Thursday a
shortwave will approach the area from the west finally washing the
leftover stationary front out. As this happens higher PWATs will
again wash over the area with 2.00" + values moving in. Have trended
PoPs up towards the end of the long term to account for this.
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Boundary will wash out over the area tonight. Cannot rule out a
stray shower this evening at KCVG and KLUK, however expect any
shower activity to be short lived and light. Due to this have left
out of the TAFs at this time.
Have at least MVFR fog developing at all area TAF sites with the
boundary washing out. Have IFR conditions developing at
KCVG...KCMH...and KLCK. The columbus area has received decent rain
today and KCVG will have higher dewpoints. Have LIFR conditions at
developing at KILN and KLUK. KILN area received a decent amount of
rain as well today and KLUK also will have the higher dewpoints.
VFR conditions will returning during the daytime hours on
Saturday. Expect less in the way of convective activity on
Saturday and therefore left the TAFs dry.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday through Monday.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ061-077.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-