Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 171021 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 621 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NRN CWFA TODAY WHILE A COMPACT UPR LVL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC LOW ROTATE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH...1.75 TO NEAR 2 INCHES...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF STRONG FORCING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE TRI-STATE REGION WHERE THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT DISTURBANCE MAY PUSH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD THIS AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BRING IN HIGHER POPS TO THIS AREA BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC. THE QUESTION WILL STILL BE HOW FAR EAST/NORTHEAST THE LIKELY POPS WILL GET BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND THAT WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR ANY ADDITIONAL UPDATES. ELSEWHERE...WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUFFER WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN WHICH IT GENERATES SMALL BUT YET SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JETLETS WHICH SEEM UNREALISTIC GIVEN SUCH A WEAK AND SHEARING OUT SYSTEM. AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT UPR LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR TONIGHT AS IT TRAVELS MORE EAST NEAR OUR SRN CWFA. BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THAT IS WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY HEADING NORTH DUE TO THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 60S. ON MONDAY...DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THE MORNING. AS IT DOES...LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FORECAST. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL MEAN A DOWNWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY. AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRY OUT WITH THE PCPN THREAT COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 60S. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK REFLECTED SFC TROF AXIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME SUN EARLY ON AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MID OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SHORT WAVES IN THIS KIND OF A PATTERN. WILL THEREFORE GENERALLY JUST KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH A BIT OF A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THEM. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PRECIPITATION IS SLIDING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER 09Z. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE KCVG TAF TO REPRESENT THIS FEATURE SINCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST AND SOUTH OF KCVG. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF MAINLY MVFR FOG TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. THE REASON FOR THE FOG FORMATION IS MAINLY DUE TO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THE LOW FROM THE WEST APPROACHES THE AREA THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE KCVG AND KLUK. THUS VCSH IN THE MORNING BECOMING VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING TEMPO TS IN THE EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE KDAY AND KILN TAFS HAVE REDUCED VCTS TO VCSH AS THEY WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...HAYDU

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.