Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
349 FXUS61 KILN 030911 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 411 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN LOCATIONS TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FA. HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A PLUME OF MOISTURE RIDING A 75 KNOT 850 MB JET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER TWO INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING SO FAR. MILL CREEK IN CINCINNATI IS IN FLOOD AT EVENDALE...WHILE OTHER STREAMS APPEAR TO BE STAYING IN THEIR BANKS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OTHER RIVER POINTS FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WATER PROBLEMS. SHOWERS ARE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE...OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON IN A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD TO START BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE READINGS TO FALL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER EARLY HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN FREE FROM PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER FOR THE WHOLE FA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S ON THURSDAY. A RISE TO THE LOWER 40S IS INDICATED FOR FRIDAY DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECAST FOCUS ON POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MONDAY AND ARCTIC TYPE AIR. PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE REGIME. WEAK FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIMITED CHANGE OF AIR. WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE S/W AND COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION WITH FALLING TEMPS. COLDEST AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IN THIS REGIME WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH COLD AIR AND SNOW. HAVE GONE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DEEP SFC LOW TO TRACK NORTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AND CIGS/VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THRU 09Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CIGS WILL DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY AND THEN LINGER THRU THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN IN DRY SLOT. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPING TODAY...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS DURG THE AFTN. LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN LATER TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...AR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.