Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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574 FXUS61 KILN 212130 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 430 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will remain mild through Wednesday before cooling to more seasonable levels by the end of next week. A storm system and surface low pressure center will ride up into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley region Sunday and then move very slowly northeastward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. This system will keep our weather unsettled through Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Regional radar mosaic has shown some enhanced echos developing across the eastern portions of the forecast area. Echos are still light but there are some embedded showers that could be producing some light rain at the surface in spots. The HRRR has been representing this fairly well today and continues to show some backbuilding of isold showers further west across the area through the overnight period. Consequently increased pops across the entire area tonight to handle this potential. Any precipitation will be light. There will also be the potential for some fog in our far northwest where there is a better chance for some clearing overnight. Did beef up the fog a bit for these areas, generally north and west of a Richmond to Versailles to Kenton line.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Storm system poised to push into the Ohio Valley by Sunday will produce some overrunning precipitation from south to north through the day. Areas along the Ohio River should expect to see rain developing by around sunrise or just after. Rain should push northward from there, entering our northern most zones by late afternoon. Forecast soundings did suggest a hint of some elevated instability. As such continued to included a mention of thunder. However, better instability appears to hold off until later in the day as the storm center gets closer to our area and generally across the southern third of our area.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A significant change in the overall mean flow will occur during the coming week, with ridging building into the western United States and troughing in the east. This will signal a return to more normal winter like temperatures late in the week along with the chance for periodic light snow showers and rain showers from Wednesday night into Friday night. However, before this transition occurs we will be focused on low pressure at the surface and aloft that will be moving out of the TN Valley northeastward up the Appalachians from Sunday night into Monday. This will bring rain to the forecast area. There is fairly good agreement among the models on this scenario and agreement that the heaviest rains will remain south and east of the forecast area. The 12Z NAM is an outlier with QPF in our area, generating in excess of 1.5 inches in parts of the southern forecast area from late Sunday into Monday night. However other models and GFS ensembles and the SREF support lower rainfall totals during this time, and this is reflected in WPC guidance and the NDFD forecast. In the wake of the low pressure moving off to our northeast, somewhat cooler air will move into the area at the start of the week. However temperatures will remain above normal, and temperatures will warm even more on Wednesday ahead of an advancing cold front. Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will build into the OH Valley and Great Lakes Tuesday, ahead of the advancing cold front. The cold front will move east of the area late Wednesday, and this will signal a downward trend in temperatures that will continue through the end of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expecting generally VFR conditions for area terminals through the bulk of the first 18 to 24 hours of the TAF period. However, light rain and lower CIGS will overspread much of the area from the south through the day Sunday. Initial disturbance moving across the deep south is responsible for the mid and high level cloudiness over the area. There are some very light echoes showing up on the radar mosaic and models do suggest the potential for some isold shower activity generally southeast of a line from CVG to CMH this afternoon and across our north later tonight. Consequently there should be some areas of virga across our southeast at a minimum along with the possibility of some isold shower activity. Fairly confident that CVG, LUK, DAY will remain precipitation free this afternoon. However, will include mention of some showers in the vicinity of ILN, CMH, and LCK. Shower activity may continue to affect portions of the forecast area tonight, but generally across the north. A more significant storm system and surface low pressure center will ride up into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley region Sunday. With decent model agreement in details of sensible weather, confidence is increasing that rain will rotate northward across the area through the day Sunday, affecting CVG/LUK by mid morning and our more northern terminals by early afternoon. Aforementioned storm system moving through the area Sunday night and Monday will keep our weather unsettled. There appears to be a lull in the weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Then a cold frontal boundary will bring showers back into the area by Wednesday. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday through Monday, then again Wednesday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ray NEAR TERM...Ray SHORT TERM...Ray LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...Ray

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