Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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145 FXUS61 KILN 172003 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 403 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region late in the overnight and into the morning on Friday. High pressure will then briefly move into the region, however another disturbance is expected to bring additional precipitation chances to the region for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A line of thunderstorms will continue to move across the forecast area through the early evening hours. Lapse rates are not overly impressive and have been a limiting factor with this event. There is decent instability and moisture. The line is moving into better dcape values across southeastern portions of the region. Expect a damaging wind threat potential to continue as the line moves east through peak heating of the day. The main threat will be damaging wind, however cannot rule out an isolated tornado or isolated flooding with the heavy rainfall. Storm activity will diminish briefly after this line passes however another disturbance is expected to work into the region from the southwest bringing additional showers and some embedded thunderstorms to the region overnight in advance of a cold front. Expect precipitation to move out of the region by the end of the near term. Went close to guidance for low temperatures during the overnight hours. Some clouds are expected to linger through the overnight hours with stratus possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions are expected for much of Friday and into Friday night. A quick moving upper level disturbance will approach the region late in the overnight Friday night and therefore introduced some precipitation chances across northwestern portions of the area. Went close to conshort and superblend for temperatures during this time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Period begins with a H5 s/w swinging through the srn Great Lakes. Extended models still are showing a range in their QPF forecasts. The NAM is the driest, with very little QPF produced while the Canadian hemispheric carries the most. Will continue with a north/south gradient in the PoPs, going from 30 in the north to 10 in nrn KY. Highs will be seasonal ranging from 80 to 85 degrees. The s/w pulls away Saturday night, allowing high pressure to build in at the surface. The high will keep the region dry Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday, models drop energy into the region from the Great Lakes, bringing scattered thunderstorms. Cold front will drop through the region Tuesday night lowering pcpn chances from n to s. There are timing differences so kept PoPs across the entire fa Tuesday night. Front will gradually pull away from the from region on Wednesday, bringing an end to the pcpn threat. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thunderstorms will move into the TAF sites this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Some shower activity will linger into the first part of the overnight hours. Dry conditions are then expected for the later part of the overnight hours and into the day on Friday. Winds will be gusty this afternoon around 20 to 25 knots. Wind gusts will diminish tonight, however expect additional wind gusts during the afternoon hours on Friday. Although most cigs are expected to be VFR cannot rule out some isolated MVFR cigs. Vsbys will also be reduced with some of the thunderstorm activity. Model soundings are indicating MVFR To IFR cigs developing later in the overnight hours. Some MVFR vsbys will also be possible during this time. Cu are expected for the daytime hours on Friday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Novak

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