Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210550 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 150 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross southeast through the area tonight, wash out between the I-70 corridor and the Ohio River on Wednesday, and lift northeast of the region Wednesday night. A stronger cold front will cross the region later on Friday. In the wake of Fridays front, colder air will be pushed into the region with below normal temperatures expected for the latter part of the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Few remaining showers in the northern counties are diminishing. Quite a bit of mid clouds will cross the region overnight. Forecast lows look reasonable.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A lingering light shower or more specifically sprinkles under more cloudy conditions will be found tomorrow between the I-70 corridor and the Ohio River, focused on the eastern portions of the CWA. This is as the surface front strings out and the upper level forcing exits to the east. Highs will be in the mid 80s, with overnight lows dropping to the mid 60s under an increasingly moist airmass. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Zonal flow with a band of westerlies across the Great Lakes at mid week. Initial embedded shortwave, along with moderate instability will lead to a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Better bulk shear and instability is expected to be located across the north with better moisture across the south. Have adjusted chance category pops with highest pops north and south and a relative min across the central FA. Temperatures look to be around 5 degrees above normal with highs on Thursday in the upper 80s. More significant shortwave and associated surface frontal system to drop into the area as moisture increases from the south ahead of the remnants of a tropical system Friday. Will bump up pops to categorical south and likely elsewhere. Temperatures look to be closer to normal with highs Friday generally in the lower 80s. Remnants of tropical system to get caught up in the westerlies and track through the TN/OH valleys Friday night/Saturday. Model spread exists regarding the exact track and timing of this system. However, consensus forecasts suggests that the heavy rain axis will remain south ILN/s FA. Will diminish pops from northwest to south late Friday night into Saturday. Expect Saturdays highs around 80. Mid level trof to develop over the Great Lakes Sunday. Model solutions less amplified with this trof. Will limit pops to low chance far north and slight chance elsewhere Sunday. Expect Sundays highs to range from the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. With the mid level trof lagging across the Great Lakes can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday. Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be cooler with highs in the mid/upper 70s. Surface high pressure to build across the Ohio Valley keeping the region dry and cooler Tuesday. Expect Tuesdays highs in the mid/upper 70s. Return moisture on the back side of surface high pressure will lead to a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday across the north. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Mid clouds will move across the region early in the TAF period. Scattered to broken cumulus will occur through the day. It is not out the question that some showers or thunderstorms could affect the Columbus area and just have a VCSH in those terminals for now. Some cumulus may persist even late into the TAF period. Once again light southwest will veer to west or west southwest and strengthen to around 10 kt and then back again around 00Z and become light. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon into Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings possible Thursday night into Friday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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