Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240535 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 135 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... As high pressure works off to the east tonight into tomorrow, low level moisture will be on the increase. This will slowly lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front which will reach the region Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Scattered cumulus clouds have dissipated with the loss of heating. High level clouds have streamed into the region ahead of mid level s/w over the plains moving into the upr ms vly. This s/w will track into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Expect mid level clouds to develop across the area late tonight. Low levels are dry but a sprinkle toward sunrise is not out of the question. Model solns trending dry and therefore have maintained a dry fcst overnight. Good temperature gradient due to cloud cover differential overnight. Expect lows to range from the upper 50s far northeast to the mid/upr 60s far southwest. Previous Discussion... Diurnal cu, which is more abundant across the nw quarter of the fa, should gradually dissipate as the afternoon progresses. Then as high pressure moves off to the east coast tonight, cirrus will be on the increase for the second half of the night. Earlier runs of the RAP were trying to bring some pcpn into the wrn counties towards 12Z, however the most recent run has now dissipated those chances. That leaves the 12Z NAM was the outlier in bringing scattered showers in towards the end of the period. Will back off on the pcpn chances for late tonight based on the consensus of the models. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s for locations east of CMH to the mid 60s for the CVG tri-state. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Dewpoints will be on the increase tomorrow as sly flow increases. Pcpn associated with a weak H5 s/w will work into the fa during the morning hours. Instability increases by the afternoon so transitioned the pcpn type from showers to tstms by Wednesday afternoon. It looks like the best chances will be across the nw quarter of the fa. Kept the extreme se counties dry tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will range in the 80s. Wednesday night the better pcpn chances remain across the nrn counties as upper level energy works through the flow. By Thursday, a cdfnt begins to approach the fa. It still looks like the northern half of the CWA will be most likely to be affected by storms on Thursday, but kept a slight chance for the srn counties. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer ranging from 85 to 90. Forcing is very weak Thursday night, so washed out pcpn chances as the night progressed. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few showers and thunderstorms may linger on Friday in residual moisture and forcing near a weakening frontal boundary along and south of the Ohio River, including the Cincinnati metro area. Locations to the north including Dayton and Columbus should remain dry. High pressure and a dry airmass are expected for Saturday. For Sunday, moisture and energy spilling southeastward from Great Lakes low pressure will provide a chance of thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Monday when the low is forecast to drag a cold front across Ohio. A few thunderstorms may persist on Tuesday as the boundary sags gradually south to Kentucky. With a large and slow moving high in the upper atmosphere centered from the Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and with mainly warm advection in the lower levels, a return to mid-summer heat is indicated. High temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s will couple with dew points near 70 to make outdoor activities uncomfortable at best. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mid level ridge over the lower Gulf Coast states will slowly build northward through the TAF period. At the same time, embedded disturbances will rotate eastward through the Great Lakes. Return moist flow, along with the proximity of the disturbances, will bring at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the terminals today. Chances do not appear high at this time, with the best chance likely occurring near the KDAY terminal this afternoon. Have maintained a VCTS/CB at this location. Southeast to south surface flow will become south later this morning around 10 to 12 knots with some local gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range by afternoon. For tonight, the latest high resolution/convection allowing models indicate that the threat for showers/storms overnight will likely be closer to the lower Great Lakes, or mainly north or northwest of the terminals. As a result, have just VFR conditions at this time. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible from Thursday into Thursday night, mainly near the northern terminals. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...AR/Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman

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