Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011323 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 923 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INTO OHIO TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED OUT OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHTER RADAR ECHOES WITHIN AN AREA OF THICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PARTIAL CLEARING HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH PATCHES OF STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT APPEAR UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DEPART THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A PART IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE GENERATED TODAY...AN IMPORTANT KEY TO THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL TIMING AND INTENSITY EXPECTATIONS STILL FAR FROM A NICE CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND SREF PROBABILITIES...IF TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ABLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 70S AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SBCAPE OF 1200-1800 J/KG WILL BE ATTAINABLE. IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PERHAPS SHOWN THE MOST PROMISE IN ALIGNING BEST WITH THE OBSERVED SURFACE PATTERN. ALONG A WEAK AND NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE. LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS MORE NOTABLE (45-50 KNOTS)...WHICH WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG (TO POSSIBLY SEVERE) STORMS. SINCE DESTABILIZATION IS ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY...A ADDITIONAL KILN SOUNDING WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 17Z...IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE EARLY AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE ON GOING FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FILLING H5 TROF LIFTS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SW TO NE AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE LINGERING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. PCPN WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD DROPPED INTO SRN KY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL PUSH PCPN INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S HOWEVER. H5 ENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. DIGGING TROF DEVELOPS INTO DEEP LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE SOME EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LARGE LOW. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR DRY SOLN SATURDAY. TEMP WISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW...BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. READINGS WILL ONLY MODERATE A LTL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR CIGS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK THIS MORNING TO MVFR/ VFR AS RAIN HAS COME TO A TEMPORARY BREAK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TEMPORARY BREAK IS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO COME RIGHT BACK. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY WHILE THE GFS AND RAP ARE MORE RESERVED. HIGH RES MODELS ARE ALSO SCATTERED WITH PRECIP AND HAVE NOT DONE A GOOD JOB THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE REASONS HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT REDUCED CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER CELLS THAT FORM OVER THE TERMINALS. GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS AGAIN ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND HIGH RES ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE EURO AND GFS. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO THE GFS/EURO SOLUTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIP AFTER SUNSET AND THEN ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/ SURFACE LOW. BOTH GFS/ NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE HAVE ONLY HINTED AT MVFR FOR MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAINES

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