Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291602 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1202 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will build in through mid week. Another cold front will cross the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Showers over southeastern CWA will continue to weaken as they move eastward. Generally clear skies along and west of the Ohio/Indiana border will permit cu formation with the heating of the day as is apparent on visible sat imagery over much of Indiana. Daytime heating will permit some of this cu field to organize into showers and a few thunderstorms as the convection deepens today. A little bit of shear with the approach and eventual passage of a frontal system this evening will combine with unstable air to the southwest for a marginal threat for some storms to produce damaging winds in the Ohio Valley. The merging of the lower atmospheric instability and heating ahead of the front will combine with the frontal passage this evening to have a line of thunderstorms develop sw-ne over the CWA and move east tonight. Storms will need to be monitored but the threat for well-organized thunderstorm formation is not overly high today. Timing of storms may need to be tweaked with a later afternoon update but I am leaving the current forecast timing run with the early afternoon update. Temperatures in the east under the cloud cover and earlier rain in the southeast will have a chance to recover as the stratus deck moving east will be through and permit these regions to heat well before any additional showers and/or blowoff cools things off. Very minor changes were made to the forecast this morning in favor of seeing how the showers and storms develop later today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will build into the region during this time frame. Dew points will lower slightly. And this will allow for somewhat cooler night time temperatures. But highs will still be in the lower to mid 80s with readings a bit warmer Tuesday compared to Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure east of the region at the beginning of the period should still keep dry and warm conditions in place. A cold front will move in from the west on Thursday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. 00Z guidance in reasonable agreement that this front will move east of the area Thursday night. Meanwhile upper low will close off along the Texas coast. So the threat of precipitation being drawn back into the southeast counties has diminished. Temperatures will fall slightly below normal late in the week as high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Shower development is expected to coalesce into a line of thunderstorms ahead of the passage of a cold front this evening. H5 trough in the Upper Midwest will pivot northeastward into the Great Lakes early this afternoon. Showers that develop in the warm sector ahead of the cold frontal passage will deepen with the heating of the day, and as the front approaches later today there may be enough low level shear available for a line of storms to develop and propagate eastward in the late day and early evening. skies will be VFR until storms roll through. Gusty winds and mvfr vsbys are expected in thunderstorms but timing cannot be gleaned at this moment. Will have to wait until the expected line develops and extrapolate positioning and timing with any amendments this afternoon. Sky cover will rapidly improve this evening in favor of generally clear skies overnight. Some fair wx cu may sprout in the drier if not cooler air behind the front tomorrow. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Franks/Novak

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