Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 050607 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 207 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. CI BLOW OFF SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BETTER CLOUD COVER ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA...WENT WARMER TEMPS THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S NRN KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL START THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. FFG VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH IN THREE HOURS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... POTENT LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL BE TRAVELING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FARTHER FROM THE LOW. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. WENT CLOSER TO THE MOISTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AND AWAY FROM THE DRIER GFS WHICH HAS THE LOW TRACKING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN A RATHER COOL REGIME OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. HOWEVER...FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL SETTLE DOWN BY FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SCOOT EAST...LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UP LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HUMID AIRMASS. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW ON THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS WILL START TO REBOUND FRIDAY...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND DRIFT ESE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME CLEARING IS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AT KLUK BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE REST OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE HOWEVER AND SOME MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY...HAVE FORECASTED A PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG THERE LEADING TO LIFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUDS AND DIURNAL CU POSSIBLE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS MIDDAY BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE NE BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO KENTUCKY LATE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AFFECTING KCVG/KLUK BY THE END OF THEIR TAF PERIODS. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...KURZ

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