Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 212345 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 745 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid level ridge of high pressure will set up over the Great Lakes and remain stagnant into early next week. Weather conditions are expected to be generally dry, with temperatures above normal through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Dying convection currently located west of metro Dayton will continue to lose its cohesiveness this evening. Other storms that extended along a line from Dayton/Troy ssw towards Cincy/Burlington have died out already and will not see any more showers this evening. Cloud cover from this little batch of late day convection will gradually dissipate by about midnight in favor of clear skies. Light winds and the clear skies will make another night of good radiative processes possible, and fog is expected to be patchy overnight, but locally dense in river valleys and fog-prone areas. Have not adjusted temperatures yet but tried to show the convective trend this evening with earlier updates.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The stagnant pattern will continue into Friday, as the mid-level ridge strengthens slightly, and the surface high establishes itself a little more firmly into the northern Ohio Valley. Another day of near-full sun should allow for a slight warming in temperatures from today (Thursday), raising the possibility of seeing some 90 degree readings, mainly in the southwestern ILN CWA. It is another day where it is tough to get a clean read on precipitation chances, as forecast soundings again show that a weak cap will be present near 800mb. Despite this, model output again suggests that conditions may not remain completely dry. With a pattern almost identical to today, some low-end chance of showers may eventually need to be introduced, but this may not be possible until real-time trends are monitored -- and it would not be good to include this CWA-wide since almost all locations will remain dry. With a slight drop in dewpoints going into Friday night, temperatures will be capable of falling a little more than on Thursday night -- and min temps should be in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Large H5 ridge over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant feature through the weekend and into early next week. It will work with a surface high centered over the eastern Great Lakes to bring dry and much above normal temperatures to the region. High temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal as they push into the mid and upper 80s. Morning lows be in the lower 60s. Extended models continue to differ in their strength and timing of front for the middle of next week. The ECMWF is the quickest with the front, brining pcpn Wednesday Evening into Wednesday night. The GFS is doesn`t bring the front and pcpn in until Thursday. The Canadian brings Maria into NC/VA and therefore doesn`t really have the frontal feature. Ran with a blend of the ECMWF/GFS for the last 48 hours of the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Light winds and generally clear skies with the exception of some lingering stratocu and higher blowoff AS along the I-75 corridor and CVG/DAY/LUK TAFs will prevail tonight. Fog is expected again through Friday morning. MVFR fog is likely for all TAF sites, with a chance for IFR at KILN and possibly at KCMH/KLCK. KLUK will again be favored for dense valley fog. Light winds will continue and some fair wx cu is possible west of KILN during the heating of the day. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Franks

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