Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272010 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 410 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week. Another low pressure system will affect the region Thursday and Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Convection progressing into central Kentucky will continue east northeast through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Mesoanalysis continues to shows a distinct gradient in instability. Near term models still indicate that instability will get further north into far southern counties, but for the most part the forecast area will remain along the northern gradient. There remains the potential for strong to severe storms to affect far southern counties late today into the early evening. Damaging straight line winds seems to be the main threat. After this initial round of convection, expect to see additional showers and thunderstorms fill in ahead of a surface low that will track across the area. While any storms will bring a period of heavy rainfall, guidance trends suggest that the possibility of localized flooding seems to be a bit lower than previously expected. Precipitation will diminish late tonight as the low continues off to the east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Some wrap around showers may still affect parts of the forecast area Tuesday morning before ending entirely. Low clouds will prevail through the day and most likely all of Tuesday night. Did not see any reason to vary much from a MOS consensus on temperatures.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low level moisture will be present across the area at the start of the long term especially along and south of the Ohio River. Although decent cloud cover will be present through the day, dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. A warm front lifts northward on Thursday allowing for some shower and thunderstorm activity. A low pressure system approaches Thursday night. Models differ on how progressive this low is as it moves through the area. The ECMWF has come more into line with a slightly slower solution and therefore expect showers and thunderstorms across the region on Friday before beginning to taper off Friday night into Saturday morning. After this time expect dry conditions for a remainder of the weekend and into Monday. The next system will begin to move into the area for Monday night bringing additional precipitation. High temperatures through the long term will be in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s and 50s, however a few temperatures in the upper 30s will be possible north of Dayton to Columbus Wednesday night and Saturday night.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Early part of the TAF period will be uneventful with some cumulus and extensive mid to high clouds. Convection in western Kentucky will spread into the region and potentially start affecting TAF sites after 22Z. In the wake of this initial activity, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop and move across the region as low pressure approaches. At this point expect VFR conditions to prevail with temporary lower visibilities in heavier precipitation. As the low moves across the area overnight, thunderstorms will diminish although showers may linger. Ceilings will fall to MVFR below 2000 ft and likely eventually drop to IFR before 12Z. Winds will become variable then shift to north. Showers will end Tuesday morning but low ceilings will persist with some slow improvement late in the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will persist into Tuesday night and likely continue into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday into Friday evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...

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