Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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671 FXUS61 KILN 081702 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1202 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INCREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW...AROUND AN INCH...IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE TRISTATE AND SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. IN GENERAL A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND PIVOT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS AS THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW EASTWARD...THE 00Z NAM THE SLOWEST AND THE 00Z GFS MORE IN THE MIDDLE. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN ENHANCED AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN OHIO. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THIS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND ARE NOW SHOWING IT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE KEY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINES UP...BUT BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBUS AREA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX/EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...PCPN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE WEST AND THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL LINE UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA SO WOULD EXPECT SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THERE IS QUITE A RANGE IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND THUS PLACEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO RUN AN ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR EAST AND SOUTH. WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN 1-3 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH THESE AMOUNTS BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED ABOVE. HOWEVER...WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...EVEN IF WE DO NOT COMPLETELY REACH THESE AMOUNTS...WOULD EXPECT TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. HERE AT KILN DID OBSERVE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT STILL AM EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS THEN SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A SECONDARY PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS THEN FORECASTED TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT AND ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HIGH RES MODELS AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THESE ENHANCED SNOW FALL AMOUNTS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL INCONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS HEAVIER AMOUNTS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO CVG/LUK. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW THAT DOES FORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FUTURE TAF PACKAGES WILL LOOK TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAINES

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