Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301321 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 921 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend as a frontal boundary will remain stalled across the region. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the first of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Updated the forecast to expire the dense fog advisory. Kept special weather statement going across northwest portions of the forecast area for the next hour or so. We are still seeing some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily across our far southwest and northeast forecast area. Overall these storms have shown a gradual weakening trend through the early morning hours and this is likely to continue through daybreak. Meanwhile, the clouds have hung around enough so far early this morning to help limit br development. Will continue to keep an eye on it but for now just plan on including some patchy fog wording in the forecast through daybreak or so. The mid level trough axis will pivot slowly east into the southern Great Lakes Region through this afternoon. As it does, a weak surface wave will ride slowly east along a stalled out boundary currently in place across our area. As we destabilize through the day, this should lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development once again from late morning into this afternoon. Hi res models are hinting at the highest pops being across eastern portions of our fa out ahead of the surface wave so will trend forecast accordingly. PWs will be a tad lower than Friday, more in the 1.5 to possibly 1.75 inch range, but with slow moving storms, locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... There should be a downward trend in thunderstorm coverage heading into this evening as they will be diurnally enhanced. However, with the mid level trough axis still moving through, will just taper back to a 20 pop through the overnight hours. The better energy will then continue to shift east through the day on Sunday. Will continue with lower end pops, with the best chance across eastern portions of our forecast area during the afternoon hours. We will remain in northwest flow aloft Sunday night into Monday with some models suggesting some possible short wave energy dropping down toward our area. There is some uncertainty with the timing and placement for this though. Would think the best chance for anything would be across southern portions of our area but given the uncertainty, will maintain a dry forecast for the time being. Highs both Sunday and Monday will be in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Period begins with a weak H5 trof over the Great Lakes. In the localized nw flow, the models are dropping weak s/w into the region. The models are handling these weak disturbances differently and therefore are producing a variety of solution. The GEM hemispheric is the most aggressive as it drops a MCS thru IN and KY nicking the Tri-State region with pcpn. The GFS and to a less extent the 12Z ECMWF pop a little QPF along the Ohio River. The 00Z ECMWF was dry. Confidence is too low that the models have a handle on the situation so will continue to carry a 10 PoP in the south and less to across the nrn counties, therefore going dry. It looks like highs will be in the lower and mid 80s. H5 ridge builds in Monday night and Tuesday, which should keep the fa dry and mostly sunny. Temps will warm a couple of degrees with highs on Tuesday, into the mid and upper 80s. ECMWF continues to be the outlier, as it drops an MCS out of MN and down towards the fa Tuesday night, then bringing it across the fa Wednesday. The ECMWF has showing this for a couple of runs now. Will go with a 20 PoP to show the possibility. Hopefully future runs will bring the models into better agreement. Kept highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 80s. Thursday looks like another dry day, then a cdfnt will start to drop towards the area for Friday. An increasingly unstable atmosphere with interact with the forcing from the front to bring a chance of thunderstorms on Friday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Locations west of the terminals are showing LIFR/ VLIFR visibilities/cigs this morning as skies are clearing from west to east. A low stratus deck has also formed mainly along and north of a stationary boundary that is currently hanging around near KDAY and KCMH. As the sun rises am again expecting cigs and visibilities to rise and become VFR by mid morning. This afternoon NAM and GFS forecast soundings are again destabilizing as daytime heating and plenty of moisture will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Upper level lift from an upper level low will also help to further promote development this afternoon with slightly better lift across the east. Still though, high res models are again showing pretty good coverage. Given the moist atmosphere, upper level lift, and instability this makes sense. Have gone ahead and added tempo groups into the TAFs to account for this. Coverage will then again slowly decrease into the evening as daytime heating is lost. Tonight into Sunday morning light westerly winds will diminish bringing another chance of reduced visibilities. Drier mid to low level air will start to work into the region Sunday morning though which could help to limit fog potential a bit. For now have left the mention of fog out for Sunday morning given the uncertainty. OUTLOOK...Chance of thunderstorms Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.