Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190510 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 110 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SLIP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...OFFERING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER REMAINS BENIGN OVER THE ILN CWA...A FEW OF THE DETAILS ARE NOT BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE COMPUTER MODELS. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND MOST OF THE CWA HAS DROPPED OFF TO CALM CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET. THE NEW GRIDS ARE LIGHTER WITH THE WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES BEGIN TO BECOME TIGHTER AFTER 06Z. WITH THE CALMER WINDS (AT LEAST TO START THINGS OFF)...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT BY NOW. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...THE CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY THICK...WITH IR TEMPERATURES OF -30 TO -40 CELSIUS. SKY GRIDS WERE BUMPED UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS MAY NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE VERY HIGH AND THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EVIDENT ON SATL BISECTING ILN/S FA. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT DROPS SE AND PASSES THRU DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING WEAK FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN. SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 40S SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE A NICE WARM UP. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTH. WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM IS QUICKER WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LATEST RUN DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP INTO SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN WAA PATTERN. NAM IS ONLY RUN WITH PRECIP AND ALL OTHER MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NE TO NEAR LOWER 50S SW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY AS WELL AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL LOCATION AND SUNSHINE AMOUNT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OF WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. A RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SYSTEM SE OF THE TAF SITES WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...NOVAK

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