Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250759 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 359 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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OUR REGION WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN EMBEDDED S/WV WHICH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VLY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE CONVERGENT AXIS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME ON HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR THE PLUME OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS TO OUR WEST TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EAST...AND BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS PCPN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION. ANOTHER WEATHER ELEMENT TO CONSIDER TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH FAR NORTHWEST WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS (AROUND 20 MPH) IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MOST AREA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND AVAILABLE HIGH RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS S/WV AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS PIVOT NORTH AND EAST. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE CONFINED MORE TO OUR SRN ZONES. BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH. SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. FOR TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF...INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONVERGENT AXIS. THE DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80 INCHES) WILL INTERACT WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PART OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT IT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO OBTAIN LOW END MODERATE SHEAR/LOW END MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALSO..GIVEN TALL SKINNY CAPES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE LOW. THE FLOW IS MODEST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SO IF SOME STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLE SEVERE GUSTS...MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW THREAT FOR SVR IN THE HWO. FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV MOVES NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY S/WV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL MIN IN CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER UPTICK DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO AM HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH 925-850MB LAYER FLOW UP TO 50KTS AT TIMES AS THIS LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AND CIRRUS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER OH/IN/KY...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER IN KY/IN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UP INTO SWRN OH BY ABOUT 08Z THOUGH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND LIKELY JUST VIRGA/SPRINKLES. DID KEEP VCSH GOING FOR A TIME ACROSS ALL BUT THE CNTL OHIO SITES THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. BIGGER STORY IS STRONGER FLOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND 12Z WITH GUSTS BECOMING COMMON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THIS MORNING /BEFORE 17Z/ WITH ONSET OF HEATING AND PRESENCE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND SOME GUSTS TOWARD 30KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH WILL KEEP TAFS IN THE 25-27KT RANGE. DID NOT PLACE LLWS IN TERMINALS DUE TO GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS/LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO DECREASE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. AFTER 18Z...COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWERS/STORMS IN SCT FASHION INTO EARLY EVENING. WEAKLY/LOOSELY FORCED SO WILL KEEP VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. EXPECT MID CLOUDS AND DECREASING/BACKING FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WANE. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...BINAU

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