Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290538 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH OVERALL EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED. SO ONLY BLENDED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN AND PROVIDE FOR A COOL BUT NICE SPRING DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S COULD PLACE HIGHER WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE A 35-40 DEG DEPARTURE FROM MORNING LOWS. WHILE THESE DIURNAL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THE STRONG SLY PUSH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SUGGEST SUCH A SCENARIO. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ENOUGH WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT TO WRING OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND BY EVENING IN THE EAST. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE MOST AREAS SEE SOME...A FEW SPOTS COULD MISS OUT OR ONLY SEE VERY LITTLE RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST. HAVE PUT IN AROUND .1 TO .15 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EXPECTED QPF FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT COULD BE SCATTERED AS IT WORKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. H5 DYNAMICS ARE WELL BEHIND/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT SO THAT THUNDER SHOULD NOT PLAY A PART IN THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEST WINDS WILL ONLY USHER IN LOW TEMPS SUN NIGHT THAT ARE IN THE MID 30S...A MARKED UPTICK FROM THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE 50S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IF SUN LASTS LONGER THAN THE CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS ARE ALL NOTING A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MAKING A SE PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. EUROPEAN HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO NERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 3-4 /TUES AND WED/ BEFORE CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK - WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WX EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH. TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS /WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH/ WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NRN OHIO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR AREA IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY /SOUTHWEST/ AND INCREASED WINDS SOMEWHAT THIS FORECAST WITH HIGH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. PER BUFR SOUNDINGS /GFS AND NAM/ EXPECT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS PORTION OF THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER ANEMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER /BELOW NORMAL/ SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BULK OF SATURATION AND BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF TRACK OF THE LOW...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN CNTL OHIO TUE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A DRY/BREEZY DAY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES FOR THURS. GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING. DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/. ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND 28.12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR CALM WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS TO START IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING. THE NEW NAM IS ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS SLOWER STARTING THE PRECIP THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. FOR NOW WILL LEAN WITH THE CONSENSUS. CIGS WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY REACH MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...HAINES

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