Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 240200
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1000 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE ON SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. AT
H5...THE FLOW IS NW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOME CI TO DRIFT DOWN OVER THE FA TONIGHT. THE GENERAL
CHARACTERISTIC OF THE SKY SHOULD STILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR HOWEVER.

STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SW
COUNTIES DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE E AND NE PART OF THE
FA. SOME ISOLATED FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH ENUF FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...AS THE AXIS OF A RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...GRADUALLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT
COMBINED WITH A DAY OF FULL SUN (AND DRY NEAR-SURFACE
CONDITIONS)...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
RISE FROM THE EARLY MORNING LOWS. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A FORECAST
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE / RAW MODEL NUMBERS...ALLOWING FOR
UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHERN /
NORTHEASTERN CWA. IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES...IT WILL REPRESENT A
TEMPERATURE CLIMB OF AROUND 35 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.

AFTER A MILDER NIGHT GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FAST...AND IN FACT...THE ILN FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL OF MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
WELL-ALIGNED THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...CREATING A
BETTER PATTERN FOR THETA-E ADVECTION THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON MONDAY) IN ADDITION TO A LARGER RISE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS (MID 40S ON SUNDAY TURNING INTO MID 50S ON MONDAY). THIS
SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. SOME SUBTLE FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
STRONGER 850MB FLOW / SUBTLE 925MB-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF INDIANA AND OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ONLY
LATER...ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THUS...A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH 20-40 PERCENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL BE SHEARING AS IT HEADS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL REMAIN WARM DUE TO CLOUDS
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...S/WV MOVES EAST TO NEW
ENGLAND...STILL SHEARING AND GETTING WEAKER. MEANWHILE...UPR LVL LOW
OVER NE CANADA WILL RETROGRADE SOME TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
HELP PUSH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NAM AND GFS
ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...ALLOWING COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIR ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO UNDERCUT WARMER AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE GEM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE ECMWF THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. WENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME
FRAME GIVEN ITS MIDDLE POSITION. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...SUCH
THAT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SMALL THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPR LVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO EXHIBIT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH A LLJ...WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER TANDEM
OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
USED A SUPERBLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD AND
SLY FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. SOME H3
MOISTURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION AS IS RIDES DOWN THE N
SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE. RIGHT NOW KEPT THE CIRRUS SCATTERED...AS IT
IS ALWAYS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH H3 WILL CONVERT TO CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE
NW TO SE...BEFORE SETTING UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FOR
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES



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