Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 011059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
559 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

Upper level low pressure will be entrenched north of the Great
Lakes region, bringing westerly flow to the Ohio Valley. This flow
will bring cool and cloudy conditions through Friday. High
pressure will build in early in the weekend. An upper level
disturbance may bring a chance for rain or snow on Sunday.


Cold advection over the region will combine with an upper level
shortwave passing through the great lakes region to permit some
sprinkles over the northern sections of the CWA this morning and
early afternoon. Given the low LCLs in the cold air, flurries
would likely be the p-type through shortly after daybreak.

Brisk westerly winds will combine with temperatures in the lower
40s to make it feel about 10 degrees colder than the actual air
temperature through the day today. Axis of the upper level
shortwave and associated vort maxima will be through the region by
late afternoon, effectively turning off any of the sprinkles or
flurries falling out of the low cloud deck.


Large closed low over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the
period will translate northeast leaving a west to northwest upper
flow across the region. Cyclonic low level flow will persist
through Friday with moisture being trapped under an inversion,
which should result in a primarily overcast period. High
temperatures will be slightly below normal with low temperatures
around seasonal normals. As high pressure starts to build in
Friday night, clouds will finally diminish which will allow
temperatures to fall into the 20s.

The upper level disturbance passing through the Great Lakes on
Saturday night will be battling the drier air at the surface
already in place from the high pressure system. Models are
continuing to push back the occurrence of precipitation with this
system, but there still remains an elevated chance for some rain
and snow on Sunday morning to change over to rain relatively
quickly. Have trended back on the rain chances later in the day on
Sunday given the split from a northern upper level shortwave that
continues to weaken with successive model runs, and the southern
heavy rain that will remain well south of the Ohio Valley. The
Gulf moisture will not have a transportation mechanism to reach
the region on Sunday given the still relatively entrenched surface


Precipitation will move out of the region Sunday night.

A brief lull in the precipitation will occur Monday before a system
begins to move in Monday night.  There is a decent warm push of air
with this system therefore have precipitation as all rain.  Expect
rain across the area for Tuesday before exiting Tuesday night.

Models are variable for a system Wednesday into Wednesday night and
with this variance decided to keep precipitation chances lower until
there is greater continuity and forecast confidence.


Cold advection SC continues to affect the region. Ceilings
are straddling the 3kft line creating a mix of MVFR and VFR
conditions. Radar is picking up some light pcpn echos affecting
the nrn tafs, but obs are not showing any substantial reduction
in visibilities.

Cyclonic flow across the region will keep weak caa which should
help keep the clouds together across the northern tafs, however
expect them to lift to VFR with the daytime heating. Models are
still on the edge with their cloud forecast for CVG/LUK however.
Some guidance is showing the clouds going scattered this
afternoon. Prefer the more pessimistic solution which keeps a VFR
ceiling through the afternoon. With the moisture caught under an
inversion, clouds should fill back in and lower with sunset.

Gusts around 20 kts will be possible today.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday.




NEAR TERM...Franks
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