Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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342
FXUS61 KILN 250153
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
953 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region tonight and will extend
across the area into Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
return for Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front
approaches and moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The 25.00Z KILN sounding was one of impressive drying/deep
subsidence as high pressure over the Great Lakes builds south.
Boundary layer flow was turning northeast across the area and
drier air /marked by lower 60s and even some upper 50s
dewpoints/ was flowing in. GOES-16 3.9 micron channel showed
just a few leftover areas of flat cumulus over central Ohio, and
few clouds as well across northern Kentucky, and it will take a
few more hours for these to dissipate. Larger shield of clouds
rotating south over eastern Ohio may try to brush portions of
central Ohio later in the night but latest guidance suggests the
bulk of this stays east. Forecast was in good shape and only
minor edits to temp/sky/wind were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridging will extend into the region for Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Dry air will remain along with mostly sunny
day and a mostly clear night. Highs will range from the upper
70s to the lower 80s with lows once again in the mid 50s to the
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to extend across the region
into Wednesday with dry conditions and nearly seasonal temperatures.

A short wave will drop southeast through the Great Lakes on
Thursday pushing a cold front towards the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the day and
continue into the evening. As the cold front moves through
Thursday night, precipitation will end.

Upper level long wave trough will become established and persist
through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will remain
centered to the northwest of the area bringing a prolonged period of
northeasterly winds. This fetch off of Lake Erie may bring some
extra clouds and perhaps even a few showers into northwest counties.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the TAF sites through 00Z
Wednesday. The only exception will be at KLUK overnight tonight
with some valley fog possible, and have visibilities in the MVFR
category. With drying/subsidence from high pressure to the
north/east, remaining fair weather cumulus this evening will
dissipate leaving a clear/mostly clear sky. Winds will go from
northerly to northeasterly overnight and continue out of the
northeast on Tuesday. More diurnal cumulus expected especially
at northern TAF sites /KCMH and KDAY and KLCK/ on Tuesday
afternoon but should only be few-scattered.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday
night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Binau
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Binau



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