Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230509
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
109 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through Friday. A weak
cold front will move into the area Saturday...stall near the Ohio
River and then lift back north early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Not many changes to forecast this evening as high pressure remains
in control across the area. Highs Friday will again be in the
upper 80s and approach 90 degrees as both 850 and 925 mb
temperatures don`t change much. 1000/850mb thicknesses also are
around 1420 m which supports high temperatures approaching 90.
Surface high pressure will washout Friday afternoon as a cold
front pushes south through Michigan. The front will remain north
of the area as it stalls Friday evening.

Prev Discussion->
Some cirrus will spread across the region overnight. But this
should have little if any effect on radiational cooling
conditions. Winds will become light again. Lows will be slightly
warmer than last night but a bit cooler than guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain across the region for another day. There
will be some mid to high clouds...but still a good deal of sun.
Temperatures will be near persistence.

A weak cold front oriented east-west will sag south. Wind shift
will move through Friday night with any change in airmass lagging
behind and not moving into the area until Saturday. Forcing is
meager but 12Z models have enough of a signal to warrant slight
chance PoPs in the Whitewater and Miami Valleys Saturday
afternoon. Expect the front to stall near the Ohio River. This
front will lead to a pretty good gradient in temperatures from
north to south both Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in agreement on keeping Sunday dry, however there is
still quite a bit of model variability beyond this time.  At this
time Monday and Wednesday look to be the best chance for
precipitation.  Limited any precipitation chances to the chance
category until there is better resolution and confidence in one
solution.   Models are trending cooler for later portions of the
long term. Went with a model blend for the Monday through Thursday
time period.  Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days with cooler
conditions after that time.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will keep conditions generally VFR through
the forecast period, with the exception of the usual fog
(IFR/LIFR) at KLUK early this morning. Some high and mid level
clouds are moving through the region as of this writing, and a few
cumulus clouds may develop during the afternoon. Winds are
expected to remain light through the next 18-20 hours or so.

Late tonight and going into early Saturday morning, winds will
shift to the northeast, and increase slightly in intensity. Clouds
will also begin to lower, though as of now it appears that they
are most likely to remain in the VFR range.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Hatzos



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