Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 171754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY
WHILE A LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL THEN ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NRN CWFA TODAY WHILE A
COMPACT UPR LVL DISTURBANCE AND SFC LOW ROTATE SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE APPROACH OF THE COMPACT DISTURBANCE
IS PUSHING A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH PWATS WILL REMAIN
HIGH...1.75 TO NEAR 2 INCHES...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF STRONG
FORCING OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS
IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE FAR S CWFA WHERE CATEGORICAL AND
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN EMPLOYED. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST THE HIGHER POPS WILL GET BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...AND THAT WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUFFER WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES IN WHICH IT GENERATES SMALL BUT YET SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
JETLETS WHICH SEEM UNREALISTIC GIVEN SUCH A WEAK AND SHEARING OUT
SYSTEM. AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT UPR LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
SHEAR TONIGHT AS IT TRAVELS MORE EAST NEAR OUR SRN CWFA. BEST LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND THAT IS WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED. CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY HEADING NORTH DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
THE UPPER 60S.

ON MONDAY...DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THE
MORNING. AS IT DOES...LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH POPS IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ONCE AGAIN WITH
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FORECAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL MEAN A DOWNWARD
TREND IN INSTABILITY. AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
EXPECTED...WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRY OUT WITH THE PCPN THREAT
COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 60S.

FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK
REFLECTED SFC TROF AXIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME SUN EARLY ON AND
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MID
OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK BEFORE
POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SHORT WAVES IN THIS KIND OF A
PATTERN. WILL THEREFORE GENERALLY JUST KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH A BIT OF A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THEM. GIVEN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK BUT OVERALL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL HAVE VARYING EFFECTS
ON TAF SITES. SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE LOW SPINS NEARBY TO THE
SOUTH. CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT
IN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND BR AND HZ WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST.

FARTHER NORTH AT ILN DAY CMH AND LCK...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION. WENT WITH VCSH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
CEILINGS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT DAY AND ILN WHILE
REMAINING VFR AT CMH AND LCK. BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DAY ILN AND
LCK...WITH THE TYPICALLY WARMER CMH REMAINING FREE FROM SURFACE
OBSCURATION.

WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW
AND A WEAK FRONT THAT IS WASHING OUT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU





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