Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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387
FXUS61 KILN 200839
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
439 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will move through the area,
offering a few lingering showers and thunderstorms today. Drier
conditions are expected for the end of the week into the weekend
as upper level ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. Warm
temperatures will continue into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak mid level low over Central Ohio to continue to weaken and
open up as ridging builds into the west. This feature combined
with marginal instability may lead to a few showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm. Have limited pops to very low chance/slight
chance over ILn/s eastern counties. An precipitation that
develops will diminish by mid to late afternoon as the mid level
ridge builds into the west.

Latest satl imagery shows that clearing has taken place over
ILN/s southern counties. With a fair amount of lingering low
level moisture, and light winds, areas of fog have developed
mainly in river valleys. Will issue an SPS for reduced
visibility due to the fog.

Expect the fog to improve quickly this morning with partly
cloudy conditions developing. Warm temperatures to continue with
highs from near 80 northeast to the mid 80s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridge to build into the Great Lakes through the
end of the week. Expect clouds to diminish this evening with
patchy fog developing overnight. Lows to range from the lower
to middle 60s.

With ridge in place expect general subsidence Thursday. Forecast
soundings show an inversion and with a lack of significant
forcing have opted for a dry forecast. Warm temperatures look to
be around 10 degrees above normal with highs in the mid and
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Robust ridge building at the surface and aloft will dictate weather
conditions through the period. Latest models indicate 1020 mb
surface high pressure over New England in conjunction with a 5900
meter 500mb high extending from the Gulf Coast to Southern Canada.
The surface high is shown to retrograde under the upper high to the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Sunday, with the system then
exhibiting modest height and pressure falls by Tuesday.

This weather regime will be absent of forcing and deep moisture,
with downward motion the rule in the anticyclonic circulation around
the high. Dry weather is expected through the period.

Mostly sunny/mostly clear skies will be observed, and temperatures
will be well above normal under anomalously high geopotential
heights. High temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s Friday
through Monday may slip only a couple degrees to the lower 80s
Tuesday. These temperatures, being close to normal for July, will be
10 to 15 degrees above normal for late September.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak mid level s/w trof to pivot east of the area today with
ridging to begin building into the west this afternoon. A
few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm is possible over KCMH and
KLCK this aftn but expected coverage is too limited to mention
more than VCSH at this time.

Meanwhile, with good low level moisture present, light winds and
clearing skies, expect the development of some IFR vsbys in fog
early this morning, along with some possible MVFR to IFR cigs.
These conditions will likely linger through mid morning before
improving by afternoon.

Skies will clear tonight with patchy fog developing. Have
limited the mention to MVFR vsby restriction.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR



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