Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 260300
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY WARM AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE ITS WAY INTO THE
NRN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY STILL RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN A HUMID AIRMASS...LOWS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG I-71. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNLIKELY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK WIND FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS TO THE VICINITY OF
THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS TO NORTHERN OHIO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE FRONT. NORTHERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM PRECIP BY THE DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE.

NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR SW BUT A STRAY STORM IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION DURG THE AFTN. DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH DRY FCST.

NRN PORTION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME FLATTENED AS TROF MOVES
THRU SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S
NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
PCPN THRU SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS EXPECTED NEAR
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. IN ADDITION..WINDS WILL EITHER
BE CALM OR FAIRLY LIGHT...SO SOME MIST WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KLUK WHERE SOME IFR VISIBILITIES
MAY OCCUR. IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND
14Z.

ON SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH. DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED NATURE
AND LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH
DESCRIPTORS AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN



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