Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 170227
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
927 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Friday. A
strong low pressure system will approach the region Friday night
and move through Saturday into Saturday evening. Cooler and
drier conditions will then be in place for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Low clouds remain across most of the forecast area with only a
tiny sliver of Carroll and Ripley counties with clear skies.
Towards Indiana with skies clear temperatures are in the upper
20s in places. Underneath the cloud cover temperatures remain in
the mid to upper 30s. Overall it appears that high res guidance
is showing clearing to quickly, but in general have kept with
the TAF forecast and nudged up the timing of when we`ll start to
break out. Also, pushed low temperatures up a couple of degrees
this evening thanks to the cloud cover. Low temperatures will
be tricky though as any breaks in the clouds will likely result
in quickly falling temperatures. New zones already out.

Prev Discussion->
Extensive cloud cover continues to be in place with winds off of
the lake. Winds shift overnight, however some low level moisture
will remain trapped and keep a decent amount of clouds around
for most of the night before decreasing the cloud cover. Low
temperatures tonight will be dependent on how quickly cloud
cover decreases. Went close to guidance at this time for low
temperatures with lows in the 20s across most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Warm air advection on Friday will allow for temperatures to
climb into the 50s across the region. Dry conditions will be in
place with high pressure on Friday. Precipitation is expected
to hold off until Friday night as a strong low pressure system
begins to approach the region. Any instability looks to hold off
until the daytime hours on Saturday and therefore have thunder
mention out of the forecast for Friday night. Winds will also
begin to pick up Friday night as the system approaches with
some wind gusts around 30 mph possible by the end of the short
term. Expect the low temperature Friday night to occur early and
as the southerly flow increases Friday night expect to see
temperature rises through the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A strong cold front is forecast to push quickly east across the
region through the day on Saturday. There are still some timing
differences between the 12Z models, likely due to the fast movement
of the front. The CMC is several hours faster than the slower
ECMWF with the NAM and GFS in between but closer to the ECMWF.

Good isentropic lift will be in place across the area Saturday
morning in strong southerly flow and WAA as a 50-60 knot 850 mb jet
slowly works across the region. This will lead to widespread shower
activity Friday morning, especially across northern portions of our
area where the lift should be maximized. Some weak instabilities are
also forecast to advect up into our area ahead of the front with
both the NAM and GFS showing a narrow axis of ML capes working
across our area in the afternoon with several of the SREF and GEFS
members also indicating this. As a result, will hang on to a slight
chance of thunder and given the strength of the wind fields, a lower
end severe threat will exist along and ahead of the front from late
morning into mid to possibly late afternoon. Breezy conditions are
also expected given the fairly tight pressure gradient but gusts may
be limited somewhat by the moist/waa pattern. However, as the cold
front moves through and we get into the better CAA, gradient winds
should pick up and become a bit more gusty later Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening. Pcpn should generally taper off as we head
through Saturday night, but a few showers may persist as some low
level moisture lingers, especially across the north. As the cooler
air moves in, any lingering showers will transition over to snow
Saturday night.

A secondary short wave will pivot down across the southern Great
Lakes through the day on Sunday. Deeper moisture remains limited but
suppose this could be enough for a few snow showers, again mainly
across the north. Highs on Sunday will only be in the mid to upper
30s. A series of weaker short waves will then work east across the
region through mid to late next week. However, it looks like we stay
dry enough to keep pops out of the remainder of the forecast.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All TAF sites are currently MVFR this evening with surface high
pressure moving in from the west. MVFR clouds are already
starting to lose cohesion just off to our south with a slow
break up of the MVFR deck expected overnight. Given current
trends on satellite have moved up the clearing slightly earlier
this morning. Low level flow off of Lake Michigan will likely
turn off with in the next couple of hours and with low level
temperature advection becoming neutral this makes sense. The
other consequence of the slightly faster break up of the low
clouds will be an increased potential for fog formation. For now
have left the mention of fog at only KLUK and will wait a bit
longer to see if clearing commences quicker than currently
expected.

During the day Friday high clouds will start to stream across
the area and slowly start to lower as surface high pressure
pulls east. VFR is expected for all taf sites late Friday
morning into early Friday evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR or IFR ceilings and possibly visibilities
possible Friday night into Saturday evening. Gusty winds will be
present on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak
NEAR TERM...Haines/Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Haines/Novak



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