Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 161147
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to work through the region today. On
Saturday a surface low will move just southeast of the area and
an upper level disturbance will move through northern portions
of the region. High pressure and dry conditions will return for
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated the forecast to remove part of the flood watch.

A cold front will continue to move through the region today.
Precipitation will gradually come to an end. A brief period of
snow will be possible on the back edge of the precipitation as
the colder air moves into the region. High temperatures will be
early in the day and then drop as the front moves through. Winds
will pick up after the frontal boundary moves through with some
wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected overnight tonight. On Saturday a
surface low will move southeast of the region and an upper level
disturbance will move through primarily northern portions of the
region later in the day on Saturday. There is still some
question on precipitation type as to whether or not ice will be
in the clouds during part of the day. Went on the cool side of
guidance for high temperatures on Saturday with high
temperatures generally in the middle to upper 30s. Went with a
solution that has more snow on Saturday, however even with this
solution expect snowfall accumulations to be under an inch with
temperatures in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
System will be pulling out early in the period with some lingering
light snow or rain possible Saturday evening. High pressure will
move across the area on Sunday.

Upper ridging will build into the region during the early part of
the week. Expect showers to move north through the area Sunday night
into Monday. Temperatures will then return to unseasonably warm. A
slow-moving cold front extending from the lower Great Lakes into the
mid Mississippi Valley which will allow showers to persist,
especially across the northwest part of the forecast area. With
abundant moisture in place and the slow progression of the system,
there will be the potential for heavier rainfall at times. This in
combination with wet soil will bring the possibility for flooding.
The front will sag southeast across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday finally pushing precipitation to the southeast.
Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler behind the front although
still above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will continue to move through the TAFs this
morning.  Rain will continue this morning before tapering off.
Cigs will generally be MVFR to IFR today and gradually become
VFR to MVFR by this evening. Winds will be gusty at times today
with the passage of the front with winds around 20 knots.
Visibilities will also be reduced with some of the rain.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Saturday and Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 2 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ063>065-
     072>074-079>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ100.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak


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