Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER NRN KY TO LIFT THRU OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLJ. BEST
INSTBY IS SE OF THE TAF SITES BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW HAVE OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE TAF FCST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY. THIS PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR






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