Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 190603
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION THAT HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR WRN CWFA. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES. WILL HOLD ON
TO A 20 POP THROUGH EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOWS WILL VARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GIVEN
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR. THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST UP TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS 39 IN THE FAR
NORTH...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AT MID WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...OFFERING COOL AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY TO BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
NEAR 60 NW TO 70 SE.

WEAK EMBEDDED S/W TO INDUCE A WEAK SFC LOW THAT TRACKS THRU THE TN
VLY WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM FURTHER WEAKENS AND THERE WILL BE DRY AIR
IN PLACE ACRS THE OH VLY. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING
HOW FAR NORTH PCPN SHIELD WILL MAKE IT. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHC
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH.

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN MID LEVELS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACRS OHIO VALLEY IN REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW. THIS HIGH TO BUILD
ACRS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY.

THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. THESE READINGS WILL SLOWLY
WARM UP WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. ON WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAYS HIGHS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH.

MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH NEXT WEEKS SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AMPLITUDE OF UPPER AIR. HAVE CONTINUED
CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS MONDAY FROM THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE LOWER 80S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TO THROUGH KDAY/KCVG/KLUK IN
THE 09-10Z TIMEFRAME...AND TOWARD POINTS EAST IN THE 10-11Z
PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN ON MONDAY...THE USUAL
LOCATIONS OF KLUK/KILN AND ANTICIPATION OF KLCK DROPPING TO
MVFR...WITH KLUK TO IFR THROUGH 09-10Z. AM ANTICIPATING SOME
IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS IN THESE AREAS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE 09-11Z TIMEFRAME.

SOME LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN JUST A FEW VFR CUMULUS FOR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY BY END OF TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&


.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDR







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