Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 221442
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1042 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will be possible across the Scioto Valley this
afternoon as a low pressure system pushes off to the east. High
pressure will slowly build in from the west Monday and Tuesday,
resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper level disturbance will brush the eastern half of the
forecast area today. This feature will bring an increase in cloud
cover and some light spotty shower activity. In addition
temperatures will be a little cooler across eastern portions of
the region with the additional cloud cover. Went close to guidance
for high temperatures today. Winds will pick up some this
afternoon with wind gusts around 20 mph possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The east coast upper level trough will shift slowly off to the
east Monday into Tuesday as mid level ridging over the Central
Plains works gradually east toward our area. As it does, surface
high pressure will build slowly down from the northwest into our
area Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and a
gradual warming trend with highs in the mid 70s for Monday and
then the upper 70s for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The H5 ridge will begin to flatten Tuesday night as a S/W swings
along the Canadian-U.S. border. This will allow some scattered
convection to possibly reach the area late Tuesday night.

For the rest of the forecast period a spring like pattern sets up.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. A WSW flow at H5 will bring weak embedded vort
maxs in the flow helping to pop convection each day which will last
into each night. Right now went with 30 PoPs as there is not a clear
signal where higher pops can be narrowed down.

Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday into
Friday, with lower 80s possible every where on Saturday. Lows
should be mild, as they remain in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak s/w rotating around low will push south into fcst area this
morning. Mid clouds will increase with cu developing in the
afternoon. Isolated shra and possible thunder will stay mainly
away from TAF sites and thus not mentioned with low probability.
Dense fog at LUK should dissipate quickly this morning and then
return later tonight. Winds increasing to around 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Novak


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